Offseason rumors

soxhop411 · Jan 12, 2024

JBJ_HOF said:
Alex Speier makes it sound like Bloom was ready to spend. FSG fired him. And now Breslow is gun shy to make big moves.

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1745826888734462195

I think that the last sentence is understandable from the POV of Craig. (especially since outside of Ohtani and Yamamoto, there were not really that many "difference makers" on the SP side'

And given the contracts that both got (the largely differed contract for Ohtani and those that Yamamoto turned down from the NY teams which IIRC were bigger than what LA gave) seems like the chances of us singing either (even if we threw money at them) was minuscule

Edit: the Reporting about bloom in the above piece also seems at odds with the earlier reporting that the FO was not happy with how he handled the past few trade deadlines and reportedly imposed a hard cap on him as a result.. That is literally something you would not let Bloom do if you had supposedly imposed a hard cap on him (as some reported)

And both reporting cant be true, (imposing a hard cap on Bloom, and allowing him to spend big this offseason)

So which report is accurate?

BeantownIdaho · Jan 12, 2024

soxhop411 said:
I think that the last sentence is understandable from the POV of Craig. (especially since outside of Ohtani and Yamamoto, there were not really that many "difference makers" on the SP side'

And given the contracts that both got (the largely differed contract for Ohtani and those that Yamamoto turned down from the NY teams which IIRC were bigger than what LA gave) seems like the chances of us singing either (even if we threw money at them) was minuscule

Edit: the Reporting about bloom in the above piece also seems at odds with the earlier reporting that the FO was not happy with how he handled the past few trade deadlines and reportedly imposed a hard cap on him as a result

I would think Breslow (added Bailey) that they would have a pulse on the pitching market, which is the greatest area of need. They may have the information available and just dont' like what they see. Next year is a bigger crop and another year the price goes up as well. I am hoping we have a great draft in terms of pitching.

BringBackMo · Jan 12, 2024

John Marzano Olympic Hero said:
If all things were equal, you're probably right but I think that you're taking a lot of the context out of your argument. The Yankees have Cole heading up their rotation, a proven number one starter who was lights out last year and just signed Stroman. The Red Sox have Bryan Bello and a bunch of other dudes. For the Yankees, Snell is a nice-to-have. For the Sox, Snell (or Montgomery or Yamamoto) is a need. Are any of them Cole? Of course not, but they're better than what they have currently. The Sox don't seem to want to trade prospects for a top of the rotation starter. They haven't had a top of the rotation starter come through their system in over a decade. The only way that they can get a starter for next season is to throw money at them.

So the reaction, I believe, would be prudent. We need a starter. We have a shit ton of cash and financial flexibility. Why aren't we getting one? That is why you would get the frustration, annoyance, anger reaction here. Also, who gives a shit about the Yankees? The White Sox haven't bolstered their rotation either and I'm not worried about them.

It's really simple.

You just described a situation where the Yankees should have been even more determined, not less, to land an arm of Snell's caliber. They are in GFIN mode.They have an ace. They have one guaranteed year of Juan Soto. Their window is right now. Their goal in 2024 is to win the World Series, and Snell makes them a more legitimate threat to do it than Stroman does.

The Red Sox are not in GFIN mode. If things come together the right way for them--and they may--it would be wonderful for them to solve their longer term need for starting pitching this off-season (or at least begin to solve it). But they are long shots to win the World Series this year regardless of which starting pitchers they acquire. Their goal is to be competitive in 2024, to make the playoffs. And that is why it is simply not the case that signing a Snell or Montgomery or Yamamoto is a "must have" for them in this particular off-season. They absolutely do have a longer term need for starting pitching. They do not have to solve it this off-season to make 2024 a fun and competitive year for the team.

Now, as to who gives a shit about the Yankees, I simply have no idea what you are talking about. Can you point to any part of the post of mine that you quoted that expresses any concern or interest about the Yankees at all...other than saying I thought it was a good move? This comment of your strikes me as projection.

SouthernBoSox · Jan 12, 2024

I don’t buy Breslow being gun shy AT ALL. This is a guy who traded a real player to the Yankees for prospects and the franchise pitcher to a World Series caliber team for a young player.

Those are ballsy - creative moves that do not have the mark of someone who lacks conviction.

BringBackMo · Jan 12, 2024

soxhop411 said:
I think that the last sentence is understandable from the POV of Craig. (especially since outside of Ohtani and Yamamoto, there were not really that many "difference makers" on the SP side'

And given the contracts that both got (the largely differed contract for Ohtani and those that Yamamoto turned down from the NY teams which IIRC were bigger than what LA gave) seems like the chances of us singing either (even if we threw money at them) was minuscule

Edit: the Reporting about bloom in the above piece also seems at odds with the earlier reporting that the FO was not happy with how he handled the past few trade deadlines and reportedly imposed a hard cap on him as a result.. That is literally something you would not let Bloom do if you had supposedly imposed a hard cap on him (as some reported)

Speier saying these things has significantly more weight than any other reporter, in my opinion. If that transcription is accurate, then it does lower my expectations of a Montgomery or Snell signing. And if that's the case, I wish they'd gone for Stroman on the short deal that would allow them to compete for a playoff spot. But let's see how things unfold.

Otis Foster · Jan 12, 2024

SouthernBoSox said:
I don’t buy Breslow being gun shy AT ALL. This is a guy who traded a real player to the Yankees for prospects and the franchise pitcher to a World Series caliber team for a young player.

Those are ballsy - creative moves that do not have the mark of someone who lacks conviction.

Agreed. Besides, the piece doesn’t state that he was gun, shy, it states he was not going to be rushed into decisions before he got a more complete grasp of the organizational data. That’s quite different.

Edit: posted prematurely before editing

moondog80 · Jan 12, 2024

SouthernBoSox said:
I don’t buy Breslow being gun shy AT ALL. This is a guy who traded a real player to the Yankees for prospects and the franchise pitcher to a World Series caliber team for a young player.

Those are ballsy - creative moves that do not have the mark of someone who lacks conviction.

Starting pitching was a stated area of major need, and with most of the FA options off the board, they've signed one guy and traded one of the guys they already had for a vey modest net gain, while having 30+ million under the tax and revenues near the top of the class (though presumably set to decline this year).

And no, the offseason isn't over. But on January 12, lots of FA pitchers have new homes and the Sox have done very little to improve their most glaring problem.

Every move Breslow has made, I've liked. But this year matters too. There needs to be more.

BringBackMo · Jan 12, 2024

Otis Foster said:
Agreed. Besides, the piece doesn’t state that he was gun, shy, it states he was not going to be rushed into decisions before he got a more complete grasp of the organizational data. That’s quite different.

Edit: posted prematurely before editing

He says he expects the Sox to have an off-season of "modest transactions." We don't have to characterize it as gun shy. Speier is the gold standard. When he says something like this, it's worth paying attention to.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Jan 12, 2024

SouthernBoSox said:
I don’t buy Breslow being gun shy AT ALL. This is a guy who traded a real player to the Yankees for prospects and the franchise pitcher to a World Series caliber team for a young player.

Those are ballsy - creative moves that do not have the mark of someone who lacks conviction.

Not for nothing, but I agree with this. These are the kind of moves I really would have liked to have seen Bloom make more of.

BringBackMo said:
You just described a situation where the Yankees should have been even more determined, not less, to land an arm of Snell's caliber. They are in GFIN mode.They have an ace. They have one guaranteed year of Juan Soto. Their window is right now. Their goal in 2024 is to win the World Series, and Snell makes them a more legitimate threat to do it than Stroman does.

The Red Sox are not in GFIN mode. If things come together the right way for them--and they may--it would be wonderful for them to solve their longer term need for starting pitching this off-season (or at least begin to solve it). But they are long shots to win the World Series this year regardless of which starting pitchers they acquire. Their goal is to be competitive in 2024, to make the playoffs. And that is why it is simply not the case that signing a Snell or Montgomery or Yamamoto is a "must have" for them in this particular off-season. They absolutely do have a longer term need for starting pitching. They do not have to solve it this off-season to make 2024 a fun and competitive year for the team.

Now, as to who gives a shit about the Yankees, I simply have no idea what you are talking about. Can you point to any part of the post of mine that you quoted that expresses any concern or interest about the Yankees at all...other than saying I thought it was a good move? This comment of your strikes me as projection.

Just to the two bolded points, I absolutely agree they're not in GFIN mode (and they certainly weren't in 2021, 2022 or 2023 either - true "GFIN" mode in 2021 would have added more pitching, Schwarber was a really good add, but it also wasn't a GFIN and push all the chips in move either).

I would like them to have more conviction as to choosing a direction for a season. If your goal is to make the playoffs, make additions that get you there. If you aren't going to make those additions - and to this point they haven't, again, TO THIS POINT, then sell things that won't be here in 2025 and beyond (this means Jansen, Martin and if not extended, Pivetta).

BringBackMo said:
Speier saying these things has significantly more weight than any other reporter, in my opinion. If that transcription is accurate, then it does lower my expectations of a Montgomery or Snell signing. And if that's the case, I wish they'd gone for Stroman on the short deal that would allow them to compete for a playoff spot. But let's see how things unfold.

I can't state enough that I ask this in a genuine manner. Is there an actual transcription of the interview? I can't open the podcast, but I'd like to read it if there is. I didn't see how to find a transcription from the embedded Tweet, but I agree about Speier being the most plugged in and balanced reporter covering the Sox. He is excellent and when he says something, I take him at face value.

DeadlySplitter · Jan 12, 2024

Just to add even more angst to the thread, Heyman's latest: https://nypost.com/2024/01/11/sports/guardians-unlikely-to-trade-shane-bieber/?sr_share=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=nypost_sports

Though the Red Sox have checked in on Jorge Soler, there’s suspicion they will be outbid again, perhaps by the rival Blue Jays. The Mariners also looked at Soler, but are seen as less likely.

Former Red Sox J.D. Martinez and Justin Turner should be candidates to fill Boston’s need for a right-handed hitter, but they may more seriously consider a less costly option like Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk or perhaps even their old friend Kiké Hernandez.

BringBackMo · Jan 12, 2024

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
I can't state enough that I ask this in a genuine manner. Is there an actual transcription of the interview? I can't open the podcast, but I'd like to read it if there is. I didn't see how to find a transcription from the embedded Tweet, but I agree about Speier being the most plugged in and balanced reporter covering the Sox. He is excellent and when he says something, I take him at face value.

I just meant the one in the tweet. I didn't click through so I'm not sure what's out there for a transcription.

Auger34 · Jan 12, 2024

BringBackMo said:
You just described a situation where the Yankees should have been even more determined, not less, to land an arm of Snell's caliber. They are in GFIN mode.They have an ace. They have one guaranteed year of Juan Soto. Their window is right now. Their goal in 2024 is to win the World Series, and Snell makes them a more legitimate threat to do it than Stroman does.

The Red Sox are not in GFIN mode. If things come together the right way for them--and they may--it would be wonderful for them to solve their longer term need for starting pitching this off-season (or at least begin to solve it). But they are long shots to win the World Series this year regardless of which starting pitchers they acquire. Their goal is to be competitive in 2024, to make the playoffs. And that is why it is simply not the case that signing a Snell or Montgomery or Yamamoto is a "must have" for them in this particular off-season. They absolutely do have a longer term need for starting pitching. They do not have to solve it this off-season to make 2024 a fun and competitive year for the team.

I think you have things completely backwards here but I want to hone in on the bolded.

In your opinion, if the Sox make no more moves to address and improve the pitching, you think that they will legitimately be able to compete for a playoff spot? I think there’s some pretty hearty disagreement with that from most posters here

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Jan 12, 2024

DeadlySplitter said:
Just to add even more angst to the thread, Heyman's latest: https://nypost.com/2024/01/11/sports/guardians-unlikely-to-trade-shane-bieber/?sr_share=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=nypost_sports

Good. All Soler does at this point is take at bats away from one of Duran, Abreu or Rafaela. We need more MLB data on those players, not less.

If you're not adding significant starting pitching upgrades, adding another OF to a one year deal in any manner (Soler, Duvall, Pham, whatever) does incredibly little to make the 2024 Red Sox a more likely playoff team and only takes away an opportunity to get a better handle on what the team has for 2025 and beyond.

@BringBackMo - got it, my bad on the inference on how you were using "transcription." If anyone else does know of one, that would be really excellent to read.

nvalvo · Jan 12, 2024

I’d take Pham back.

BringBackMo · Jan 12, 2024

DeadlySplitter said:
Just to add even more angst to the thread, Heyman's latest: https://nypost.com/2024/01/11/sports/guardians-unlikely-to-trade-shane-bieber/?sr_share=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=nypost_sports

John Heyman is no Alex Speier. I don't believe he has any way of knowing these things.

John Marzano Olympic Hero · Jan 12, 2024

BringBackMo said:
You just described a situation where the Yankees should have been even more determined, not less, to land an arm of Snell's caliber. They are in GFIN mode.They have an ace. They have one guaranteed year of Juan Soto. Their window is right now. Their goal in 2024 is to win the World Series, and Snell makes them a more legitimate threat to do it than Stroman does.

The Red Sox are not in GFIN mode. If things come together the right way for them--and they may--it would be wonderful for them to solve their longer term need for starting pitching this off-season (or at least begin to solve it). But they are long shots to win the World Series this year regardless of which starting pitchers they acquire. Their goal is to be competitive in 2024, to make the playoffs. And that is why it is simply not the case that signing a Snell or Montgomery or Yamamoto is a "must have" for them in this particular off-season. They absolutely do have a longer term need for starting pitching. They do not have to solve it this off-season to make 2024 a fun and competitive year for the team.

Now, as to who gives a shit about the Yankees, I simply have no idea what you are talking about. Can you point to any part of the post of mine that you quoted that expresses any concern or interest about the Yankees at all...other than saying I thought it was a good move? This comment of your strikes me as projection.

Your original post was "Again, I think it was a nifty move for them. But I doubt that would have been the reaction here." Whether you meant to or not, and I could be reading this wrong (and if I am, apologies), but you're essentially comparing the reaction of Yankee fans to the reaction of Sox fans. That's what I was talking about.

And you're right, the Sox aren't in GFIN mode they are in a mode where they need to have someone throw the ball every fifth day. The starting staff that they have right now is below average. Signing Snell or Montgomery will raise that to average, or with some luck, above average. The Yanks are in position where they have their ace, they have their second starter, Rondon can't possibly be as bad as he was last year and then they have two kids rounding out their rotation that should do something. They also have a crap ton of offense where they're probably not going to be in a lot of 3-2, 2-1 ball games. They just need guys who can give them six league average innings and they'll be good. They need help, but not as much as the Red Sox do.

NickEsasky · Jan 12, 2024

SouthernBoSox said:
I don’t buy Breslow being gun shy AT ALL. This is a guy who traded a real player to the Yankees for prospects and the franchise pitcher to a World Series caliber team for a young player.

Those are ballsy - creative moves that do not have the mark of someone who lacks conviction.

You could also argue they are the decisions of someone conscious of payroll. Net savings in replacing Verdugo and Sale.

Edit: not saying I disagree with either move though.

soxhop411 · Jan 12, 2024

BringBackMo said:
Speier saying these things has significantly more weight than any other reporter, in my opinion. If that transcription is accurate, then it does lower my expectations of a Montgomery or Snell signing. And if that's the case, I wish they'd gone for Stroman on the short deal that would allow them to compete for a playoff spot. But let's see how things unfold.

I get that, but the Speier report is (IMO) saying the complete opposite of the other one. Is Speier saying that ownership would have allowed Bloom to "spend big" this offseason? If yes, then why was there supposedly a cap on spending imposed on him? and why fire him if you trusted him to spend big this offseason?

Both can't be true...

BringBackMo · Jan 12, 2024

John Marzano Olympic Hero said:
Your original post was "Again, I think it was a nifty move for them. But I doubt that would have been the reaction here." Whether you meant to or not, and I could be reading this wrong (and if I am, apologies), but you're essentially comparing the reaction of Yankee fans to the reaction of Sox fans. That's what I was talking about.

I think this is bi-party miscommunication here. I wasn't comparing the fan bases but the way...ah, it doesn't matter. My apologies, too.

ehaz · Jan 12, 2024

DeadlySplitter said:
Just to add even more angst to the thread, Heyman's latest: https://nypost.com/2024/01/11/sports/guardians-unlikely-to-trade-shane-bieber/?sr_share=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=nypost_sports

Fuck it just bring this guy back.

View: https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1686076352674349063?s=46

CR67dream · Jan 12, 2024

NickEsasky said:
You could also argue they are the decisions of someone conscious of payroll. Net savings in replacing Verdugo and Sale.

Edit: not saying I disagree with either move though.

I think he's doing both things, they've said they'll spend but want to spend smarter. I really like Fitts, and the black hole at second was my biggest concern. I also think people tend to brush over what O'Neil will bring.

Thank God he made those moves or the board would have already 'sploded.

BringBackMo · Jan 12, 2024

soxhop411 said:
I get that, but the Speier report is (IMO) saying the complete opposite of the other one. Is Speier saying that ownership would have allowed Bloom to "spend big" this offseason? If yes, then why was there supposedly a cap on spending imposed on him? and why fire him if you trusted him to spend big this offseason?

Both can't be true...

I certainly hope you're right that it doesn't all add up. But Speier appears to be saying here that he expects an off-season of "modest" acquisitions. And there is no one that I trust more to know what's actually going on.

HfxBob · Jan 12, 2024

SouthernBoSox said:
I don’t buy Breslow being gun shy AT ALL. This is a guy who traded a real player to the Yankees for prospects and the franchise pitcher to a World Series caliber team for a young player.

Those are ballsy - creative moves that do not have the mark of someone who lacks conviction.

Those are ballsy moves, but the team certainly seems "gun shy" about a big free agent signing.

BringBackMo · Jan 12, 2024

Auger34 said:
I think you have things completely backwards here but I want to hone in on the bolded.

In your opinion, if the Sox make no more moves to address and improve the pitching, you think that they will legitimately be able to compete for a playoff spot? I think there’s some pretty hearty disagreement with that from most posters here

That's not what I meant, but I understand that i could have been clearer. My opinion is that a second Giolito-like acquisition (such as Stroman) would allow them to field a competitive team with a legitimate shot at the playoffs. The rotation would be not bad, the bullpen would be a real strength, the defense would be better, and the lineup balance would be improved. But they WOULD need to add another solid starter in this scenario, just not necessarily one who is part of the long term solution.

RedOctober3829 · Jan 12, 2024

Speier saying these things has significantly more weight than any other reporter, in my opinion. If that transcription is accurate, then it does lower my expectations of a Montgomery or Snell signing. And if that's the case, I wish they'd gone for Stroman on the short deal that would allow them to compete for a playoff spot. But let's see how things unfold.

All of the reporting Cotillo has done has pointed them to not spending, but Speier says it and it's all of a sudden true?

CR67dream · Jan 12, 2024

HfxBob said:
Those are ballsy moves, but the team certainly seems "gun shy" about a big free agent signing.

I mean, everyone acknowledges that the names out there this year, outside a couple of pipe dreams, haven't been great, right? I don't think that because they're being prudent with guys that don't blow their doors off it indicates what you think it does. Which is fine, we'll see.

Also the S&M twins are represented by Boras, they were never going to be off the board yet absent some team's willingness to be completely insane.

BringBackMo · Jan 12, 2024

RedOctober3829 said:
Who has come up through the system and has been a number 1 or a number 2 type starter for this team since Masterson in '08?

Bryan Bellow will be 25 years old this season. He absolutely has the potential to be a number two starter.

RedOctober3829 said:
All of the reporting Cotillo has done has pointed them to not spending, but Speier says it and it's all of a sudden true?

This guy at the bar kept telling me to buy this stock but I was super skeptical about it. Then Warrent Buffet told me to buy the stock and I was like, hmmmm, maybe there's something to it.

NickEsasky · Jan 12, 2024

CR67dream said:
I think he's doing both things, they've said they'll spend but want to spend smarter. I really like Fitts, and the black hole at second was my biggest concern. I also think people tend to brush over what O'Neil will bring.

Thank God he made those moves or the board would have already 'sploded.

I think the risk/reward on both moves is high but both have legitimate question marks. O'Neil with health and Grissom in terms of his bat will translate at the MLB level and if his defense plays at 2B. I have no issues with the Fitts pickup and hope they can work with him to unlock even more.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Jan 12, 2024

BringBackMo said:
That's not what I meant, but I understand that i could have been clearer. My opinion is that a second Giolito-like acquisition (such as Stroman) would allow them to field a competitive team with a legitimate shot at the playoffs. The rotation would be not bad, the bullpen would be a real strength, the defense would be better, and the lineup balance would be improved. But they WOULD need to add another solid starter in this scenario, just not necessarily one who is part of the long term solution.

Agree totally on Stroman (or Imanaga). I was hoping the Sox would land one of those, specifically since they both have a minimum of two seasons of team control.

Unfortunately, there is no longer someone in the Stroman, Imanaga, Rodriguez tier for them to sign.

Assuming they don't sign Snell or Montgomery instead (or make a massive trade) I really hope they start selling and selling hard. So that they can then replace what they've sold with one year "meh" to hope to sell them again. The good news is, since Breslow DID make the moves of Verdugo and Sale for Fitts and Grissom, I think it's highly likely he's going to move Jansen, Martin and (if not extended) Pivetta as well.

Brohamer of the Gods · Jan 12, 2024

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
Good. All Soler does at this point is take at bats away from one of Duran, Abreu or Rafaela. We need more MLB data on those players, not less.

If you're not adding significant starting pitching upgrades, adding another OF to a one year deal in any manner (Soler, Duvall, Pham, whatever) does incredibly little to make the 2024 Red Sox a more likely playoff team and only takes away an opportunity to get a better handle on what the team has for 2025 and beyond.

@BringBackMo - got it, my bad on the inference on how you were using "transcription." If anyone else does know of one, that would be really excellent to read.

I agree with seeing what we have in the kids, but my one concern is if the team is only fielding 2 or 3 RH batters, we may only learn how they do against every lefty in the league. If the base outfield is Duran, Abreu, and O'Neill and Yoshida at DH and figuring on Wong getting more starts at C that would put 3-4 RH hitters in the lineup, but no one you want coming off the bench. In that case, maybe the return of Turner makes more sense, figuring he would pick up starts at 1B/3B/DH and be a threat off the bench. This is where Bobby D just not having it really is a pain.

moondog80 · Jan 12, 2024

CR67dream said:
I mean, everyone acknowledges that the names out there this year, outside a couple of pipe dreams, haven't been great, right? I don't think that because they're being prudent with guys that don't blow their doors off it indicates what you think it does. Which is fine, we'll see.

Being prudent is one thing. I like prudent. But to this point, they've essentially ignored (Giolito-Sale=modest net gain at best) the obvious, biggest need on the team, the one that Sam Kennedy was banging his fist on the table in his vow to improve. While pretty much every stopgap solution has signed elsewhere for non-crippling money.

And again, it's not over. But it doesn't look good at the moment.

CR67dream · Jan 12, 2024

NickEsasky said:
I think the risk/reward on both moves is high but both have legitimate question marks. O'Neil with health and Grissom in terms of his bat will translate at the MLB level and if his defense plays at 2B. I have no issues with the Fitts pickup and hope they can work with him to unlock even more.

I can't quibble with any of that. There are a million question marks and no guarantees, but overall I prefer the look after the moves very much.

moondog80 said:
And again, it's not over. But it doesn't look good at the moment.

Absolutely a fair take.

soxhop411 · Jan 12, 2024

BringBackMo said:
I certainly hope you're right that it doesn't all add up. But Speier appears to be saying here that he expects an off-season of "modest" acquisitions. And there is no one that I trust more to know what's actually going on.

But you see where I am coming from right?

There is zero chance that Cotillo's and Alex's reporting BOTH be true, and IMO is not even possible for some of one and some of the other to be true.

If we trust what Cotillo has said about a hard cap being imposed on Bloom, then there was no chance in hell they would have allowed him to spend big this offseason. But if we trust what Alex is saying (wrt to how Bloom was going to spend big this offseason) than ownership never imposed any spending restrictions on Bloom in the first place (thus Cotillo entire article about Bloom having a hard cap imposed on him is false) ... And if they were going to allow him to spend big this offseason, then there was no point in firing him

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Jan 12, 2024

Brohamer of the Gods said:
I agree with seeing what we have in the kids, but my one concern is if the team is only fielding 2 or 3 RH batters, we may only learn how they do against every lefty in the league. If the base outfield is Duran, Abreu, and O'Neill and Yoshida at DH and figuring on Wong getting more starts at C that would put 3-4 RH hitters in the lineup, but no one you want coming off the bench. In that case, maybe the return of Turner makes more sense, figuring he would pick up starts at 1B/3B/DH and be a threat off the bench. This is where Bobby D just not having it really is a pain.

In the bullpen, perhaps. It's not like a team can slant their rotation that way for the entire season. Plus, that's really part of what the team needs to learn about those players. 1) Can they handle MLB pitching; 2) can they handle same side pitching. Better to get a grasp on that in a season where the team is highly unlikely to make the playoffs, at least in my opinion.

FWIW, I think the base OF should be Duran, Rafaela, Abreu with Yoshida at DH (because I don't think AAA pitchers can challenge Rafaela enough to force him to make adjustments - even with his approach he put up a 140 wRC+ in roughly half a season of AAA, he's not facing competition that is good enough to make him change his approach in AAA. I have no idea if he's going to be able to translate that to MLB or not, but he needs to face pitcher's capable of forcing him to adjust, and AAA doesn't provide that).

You then, of course, have O'Neill and Refnsynder as back up OFs that are RHH. They're incredibly redundant, but they're both here (and at least RR has some time playing 1b).

There is very little reason to make small upgrades for one year. Get rid of anyone that is only here for one year now (well, I suppose you can still sell AFTER Mongtomery and Snell have signed elsewhere, but I'd try to take advantage of other teams NOT selling, ie the ChiSox turned down a deal centered around Grissom for Cease, so the Red Sox were able to make the Sale deal, even though it was considered - at least by BTV, and many on here - to be a massive overpay for Sale).

Try and make the same type of moves for Jansen, Martin and Pivetta (if not extended) that you did for Verdugo (because none of them are as valuable as Sale, but probably all more valuable than Verdugo). Then go sign Aroldis Chapman, Hecot Neris and Paxton or Ryu and hope to sell THEM along with Giolito and O'Neill in July as well.

EvilEmpire · Jan 12, 2024

BringBackMo said:
You just described a situation where the Yankees should have been even more determined, not less, to land an arm of Snell's caliber. They are in GFIN mode.

If by GFIN mode you mean open a new window to be in contention for a few years, I agree.

I think there is a very high chance that the Yankees will pay whatever the market rate is to resign Soto after this season.

That and the young players already on the roster and on the near horizon, plus a good core of veterans, gives the Yankees a decent window of opportunity to be competitive over the next couple of years.

I honestly don't think Snell would change that calculus very much, but if the Yankees think he will, I imagine they'll still be in on him.

They apparently offered YY $300 million. I don't think the relatively modest Stroman signing closed off any options to fill a need.

Philip Jeff Frye · Jan 12, 2024

DeadlySplitter said:
Just to add even more angst to the thread, Heyman's latest: https://nypost.com/2024/01/11/sports/guardians-unlikely-to-trade-shane-bieber/?sr_share=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=nypost_sports

"they may more seriously consider a less costly option like Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk or perhaps even their old friend Kiké Hernandez."

- this might be the most depressing thing I've ever read here on SoSH.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Jan 12, 2024

Brohamer of the Gods said:
Bobby D just not having it really is a pain.

This really is accurate. The flashes of potential that he showed would have been the perfect fit. His failure to not be even close to his high points really hurt the potential of the entire team's ability to dip into it's depth to trade.
I'd also toss Houck unfortunately into that list. He isn't hitting his potential that he flashed during his callup and a few other times (at this point... which the same would apply to Dalbec, although I'd bet on Houck finally taking the next big step forward over Dalbec).

CR67dream · Jan 12, 2024

I'm a little busy today so no time to break out, but there are some good thoughts in here on what the actual team looks like right now, and what the biggest holes are, but they're scattered in with rumor/opinion.

Just a thought, but I'd love it if someone started a thread like "What do we have on the field here, really?". I feel that some feel things are better than they are, and some that they are worse. I'm having a hard time organizing my thoughts about it to be honest. I know we have threads for certain aspects, but not really a big picture one.

Yes, I know I could do it, but I don't want people to make assumptions of what it means if I do. I don't want folks to think I'm telling them what to talk about. This place needs to be member-driven, and I don't want anyone to get any other impression.

And besides, if mods keep splitting stuff out and starting threads themselves, where's the incentive for others to take the plunge?

bosockboy · Jan 12, 2024

Philip Jeff Frye said:
"they may more seriously consider a less costly option like Tommy Pham, Randal Grichuk or perhaps even their old friend Kiké Hernandez."

- this might be the most depressing thing I've ever read here on SoSH.

When they are going the cheap route on bridge players, it’s really concerning. They have a ton of money available to even approach last years budget.

JBJ_HOF · Jan 12, 2024

Speier says the Red Sox are not willing to trade Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Casas or Bello; aren't willing to spend money; and are offering Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Houck, Yorke and Bleis in trades.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/01/12/sports/red-sox-free-agents-pitchers/?event=event25

Brohamer of the Gods · Jan 12, 2024

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
In the bullpen, perhaps. It's not like a team can slant their rotation that way for the entire season. Plus, that's really part of what the team needs to learn about those players. 1) Can they handle MLB pitching; 2) can they handle same side pitching. Better to get a grasp on that in a season where the team is highly unlikely to make the playoffs, at least in my opinion.

FWIW, I think the base OF should be Duran, Rafaela, Abreu with Yoshida at DH (because I don't think AAA pitchers can challenge Rafaela enough to force him to make adjustments - even with his approach he put up a 140 wRC+ in roughly half a season of AAA, he's not facing competition that is good enough to make him change his approach in AAA. I have no idea if he's going to be able to translate that to MLB or not, but he needs to face pitcher's capable of forcing him to adjust, and AAA doesn't provide that).

You then, of course, have O'Neill and Refnsynder as back up OFs that are RHH. They're incredibly redundant, but they're both here (and at least RR has some time playing 1b).

There is very little reason to make small upgrades for one year. Get rid of anyone that is only here for one year now (well, I suppose you can still sell AFTER Mongtomery and Snell have signed elsewhere, but I'd try to take advantage of other teams NOT selling, ie the ChiSox turned down a deal centered around Grissom for Cease, so the Red Sox were able to make the Sale deal, even though it was considered - at least by BTV, and many on here - to be a massive overpay for Sale).

Try and make the same type of moves for Jansen, Martin and Pivetta (if not extended) that you did for Verdugo (because none of them are as valuable as Sale, but probably all more valuable than Verdugo). Then go sign Aroldis Chapman, Hecot Neris and Paxton or Ryu and hope to sell THEM along with Giolito and O'Neill in July as well.

In my mind I'm sort of counting Rafaela and O'Neill as one starter slot at the moment, figuring that Raffy might not make the team right out of spring training or whatever. Barring injury or trade, I don't see any place for Refsynder on the 26, particularly if Rafaela is there. They would have 5 OFs including Yoshida, and Pablo Reyes as an emergency break glass guy. Not that I'm worried about Ref and his $2 million a year, but if he were off the 26 it would make even more sense to bring back Turner. At the moment the depth chart for both 1B and 3B is Dalbec and Reyes.

Rovin Romine · Jan 12, 2024

TomRicardo said:
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

The Red Sox current projections have them in 80-84 win range with Vegas more pessimistic at 80. Picking up a Snell or Montgomery would put them around gains you about 2-3 wins in the projection which leaves you a little behind the Orioles for 5th in the division again. You wouldn't be in the WC conversation projection wise unless you grabbed another 4-5 WAR player, even there you would be on the outside looking in.

Thank you - I'm not seeing the 85% band that was being talked about. (And frankly, I'd love to see the banded projections from fangraphs.)

moondog80 · Jan 12, 2024

bosockboy said:
When they are going the cheap route on bridge players, it’s really concerning. They have a ton of money available to even approach last years budget.

That piece was just guesswork. I've been enormously critical of the approach this offseason and I don't have high hopes things will get much better anytime soon. But if they sign Pham instead of Turner in the name of saving say, 4 million dollars, without any other payroll additions that would justify wanting to save a bit, I'll be very surprised.

ehaz · Jan 12, 2024

Alex Speier on the Sox offer to Imanaga. More money in first 2 years, then 2 year vesting option, smaller overall guarantee.

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1745857010824777937?s=46

Rovin Romine · Jan 12, 2024

CR67dream said:
I'm a little busy today so no time to break out, but there are some good thoughts in here on what the actual team looks like right now, and what the biggest holes are, but they're scattered in with rumor/opinion.

Just a thought, but I'd love it if someone started a thread like "What do we have on the field here, really?". I feel that some feel things are better than they are, and some that they are worse. I'm having a hard time organizing my thoughts about it to be honest. I know we have threads for certain aspects, but not really a big picture one.

Yes, I know I could do it, but I don't want people to make assumptions of what it means if I do. I don't want folks to think I'm telling them what to talk about. This place needs to be member-driven, and I don't want anyone to get any other impression.

And besides, if mods keep splitting stuff out and starting threads themselves, where's the incentive for others to take the plunge?

We already have one for the bats: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2024-lineup-what-we-actually-have-no-trade-speculation.41313/

A second for pitching: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2024-rotation-and-bullpen-what-we-actually-have-no-trade-speculation.41289/

I thought it made the most sense to separate them instead of combining - you can see the pressure on the bullpen vis-a-vis the 40-man for example, and it makes tradeoffs easier to think about.

I'll start something.

Yaz4Ever · Jan 12, 2024

As one of the “the offseason isn’t over, there’s still time to make moves” camp, I’d love to see us:

1. Trade Jansen, Martin, and some of our top/mid-tier prospects for a young cost-controlled pitcher or two and free up cash

2. Sign Soler or JT for the bat

3. Sign Montgomery

4. extend Pivetta, Houck, and anyone else we see as being a part of the immediate future. If we can’t, they get moved into the option 1 above group

I doubt we’d have any luck with the Seattle young guns, but if we move Mayer or another from our top prospect tier, that may change the discussion. Ideally 2 of the Burnes, Cease, Luzardo group with Houck in the closer role.

BeantownIdaho · Jan 12, 2024

JBJ_HOF said:
Speier says the Red Sox are not willing to trade Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Casas or Bello; aren't willing to spend money; and are offering Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Houck, Yorke and Bleis in trades.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/01/12/sports/red-sox-free-agents-pitchers/?event=event25

This is good news to me... keeping the right players and trading the right players IMO.

BeantownIdaho · Jan 12, 2024

Yaz4Ever said:
As one of the “the offseason isn’t over, there’s still time to make moves” camp, I’d love to see us:

1. Trade Jansen, Martin, and some of our top/mid-tier prospects for a young cost-controlled pitcher or two and free up cash

2. Sign Soler or JT for the bat

3. Sign Montgomery

4. extend Pivetta, Houck, and anyone else we see as being a part of the immediate future. If we can’t, they get moved into the option 1 above group

I doubt we’d have any luck with the Seattle young guns, but if we move Mayer or another from our top prospect tier, that may change the discussion. Ideally 2 of the Burnes, Cease, Luzardo group with Houck in the closer role.

100% spot on plan!! Trade assets were mentioned in Spier post earlier: Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Houck, Yorke and Bleis

CR67dream · Jan 12, 2024

Rovin Romine said:
We already have one for the bats: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2024-lineup-what-we-actually-have-no-trade-speculation.41313/

A second for pitching: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2024-rotation-and-bullpen-what-we-actually-have-no-trade-speculation.41289/

I thought it made the most sense to separate them instead of combining - you can see the pressure on the bullpen vis-a-vis the 40-man for example, and it makes tradeoffs easier to think about.

I'll start something.

Thanks! I think both positionally focused and big picture threads have a lot value. Worst that can happen is it dies on the vine.

RedOctober3829 · Jan 12, 2024

BringBackMo said:
Bryan Bellow will be 25 years old this season. He absolutely has the potential to be a number two starter.

This guy at the bar kept telling me to buy this stock but I was super skeptical about it. Then Warrent Buffet told me to buy the stock and I was like, hmmmm, maybe there's something to it.

soxhop411 said:
But you see where I am coming from right?

There is zero chance that Cotillo's and Alex's reporting BOTH be true, and IMO is not even possible for some of one and some of the other to be true.

If we trust what Cotillo has said about a hard cap being imposed on Bloom, then there was no chance in hell they would have allowed him to spend big this offseason. But if we trust what Alex is saying (wrt to how Bloom was going to spend big this offseason) than ownership never imposed any spending restrictions on Bloom in the first place (thus Cotillo entire article about Bloom having a hard cap imposed on him is false) ... And if they were going to allow him to spend big this offseason, then there was no point in firing him

Of course both can be true. I believe that Bloom was given a hard cap last year so that they could go under the tax last year to reset the penalties. However, the logical assumption for a team that is trying to improve and win is to go back over the tax to add those types of additions. They either would only open the vault for Ohtani and Yamamoto, reversed course on Breslow, or Breslow is electing not to go after the big ticket guys for whatever reason. I know that a lot of you for whatever reason don't like some of the beat reporters, but every beat guy has been alluding to them not spending which is just bananaland for a team of the Red Sox's resources. To not be adding a pitcher of the caliber of Snell/Montgomery or trying to trade and extend a guy like Burnes is malpractice. Stop selling us bridge years.

It's funny. The Devers re-signing is looking like the outlier in how they conduct business now.

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