2023-24 Celtics
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some of the team defense tonight was *chef's kiss*, especially the multiple players helping out on rebound and second-chance stuff.
Do we think Porzingis is upset he didn't get a few minutes to play against Boban there in the 4th?
Do we think Porzingis is upset he didn't get a few minutes to play against Boban there in the 4th?
It's always nice when locked-in defense intersects with hot shooting. Impossible for this Celtics team not to win by 30+ when that happens.
As for the Ime comments......Celtics ended up with the better coach, person, and the guy who was responsible for Ime's Xs and Os anyway. So fuck Ime.
The tough travel/B2B part of the schedule is easing up some. Next B2B is Houston->Dallas, then a home B2B, then an away/home against Brooklyn. Everything else is 1-2 days rest.
Just started a stretch where they play 7 games in 13 days (fine), then a 7-game homestand that finishes with Memphis, Atlanta, and Washington.
Travel gets rough again in March, but ideally they bank wins in the upcoming stretch.
Just started a stretch where they play 7 games in 13 days (fine), then a 7-game homestand that finishes with Memphis, Atlanta, and Washington.
Travel gets rough again in March, but ideally they bank wins in the upcoming stretch.
I think you are looking at last year's team, not this year. Two stats for you:
(1) Cs are league-best 13-6 when they shoot below league-average from 3P. (Last year they were19-20, which was 4th best - not including 1-6 in the playoffs).
(2) Cs have gone from 26th in league (3.8 per game) in post-ups to 6th (6.1 per game) and as of 3 days ago were a league-nest 1.26 points per chance (when post-up leads direct;y to shot). In mimimum 50 post-ups, KP is 1st in the league in post-up points per possession; JT is 5th and JB is like 11th or so. (SGA is #1 but only has 40 post-ups. Actually, Olynyk is averaging more ppp than even SGA butonly has 14 post-ups.)
https://www.nba.com/news/nba-storylines-celtics-adjustments
I don't get the contention that this team isn't good at stopping runs, either. To my eyes they're incredible at it. There have been so many moments this year where they've casually drained buckets that break the other team's back as their leads shrunk. It takes so much energy for the team trying to make the comeback that a few timely buckets or a couple of well-timed KP trips to the line and their opponent's will snaps.
Some people's standard for stopping runs is "never allow them".
However, in the modern NBA, an 8-0 run is:
- Other team makes a 3
- You miss a quality look from 3
- Other team makes a 3
- You turn it over and they get a layup in transition
That's only 4 plays, and this type of sequence happens ALL THE TIME, including to great teams, because I'm just describing some minor 3-point variance. Maybe the team getting run on actually played well in that stretch too!
Theoretically, when you are ahead by double-digits in the fourth quarter, it makes sense to switch from taking lots of three-point shots to taking more two-point shots on the grounds that while there may be, on average, more points from the three-pointers there is also more variance and a greater chance you’ll go 1-10 and blow the game. So as a fan I sometimes get annoyed at the shot selection when they are ahead. But that was “theoretically.”
In actuality, I have no idea whether that theory is correct, and I have no idea whether it’s that easy to switch up the offensive philosophy in the real time.
Edit- bonus points to anyone who made it thorough my ridiculous first sentence . Sorry.
In actuality, I have no idea whether that theory is correct, and I have no idea whether it’s that easy to switch up the offensive philosophy in the real time.
Edit- bonus points to anyone who made it thorough my ridiculous first sentence . Sorry.
It sort of makes sense, but the trick is that you have to keep the other team spaced.
If they start packing the lane, your open 3 is probably 37-40%, and your best inside shots might only be 40-45% propositions. So you have to be willing to take those 3s, although you can shift the distribution to slightly prioritize attacking from 2 in that game situation.
Threes should lead to lower variance (since the probability is further than 0.5) but a higher likelihood of a zero point possession. That said, if you change your offense then you probably have a higher probability of turning the ball over. And a live ball turnover is more likely to yield opponent points. That’s without considering the defense, which is going to be geared to stop any buckets (particularly in the paint).
With respect to the bolded, seems to me that the best way to stop runs in the playoffs is to get to the FT line. We've seen it with Butler and MIA and many others.
To me, that's the biggest thing KP will add. Forsberg tweeted out the day after Christmas that KP was shooting 71.4% on all post ups and generating free throws on 32.7% of post up chances. POBOBS said when he made the KP trade that BOS was "too easy to guard." KP is anything but easy to guard, which opens up everything else on the court too. (Please stay healthy).
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisForsberg_/status/1739658864818045265
This post should be printed out and laminated for anyone who thinks these Celtic's are anything like the Smart/TL Celtics of yesteryear.KP was shooting 71.4% on all post ups and generating free throws on 32.7% of post up chances. POBOBS said when he made the KP trade that BOS was "too easy to guard." KP is anything but easy to guard, which opens up everything else on the court too. (Please stay healthy).
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisForsberg_/status/1739658864818045265
Additionally, KP's rim protection defense is every bit as good as TLs.
While the entire NBA was focused on the Dame-Miami Drama, Brad waltzed into Washington and strip-mined the hapless Wizards.
Brad: We have two over-the-hill contracts in Gallinari & Muscala, & we'll get you 1yr of Tyus Jones (don't pay attention to those 2 Firsts we got with him ) PLUS a 2nd round pick.
Washington: DONE!
Brad: Oh yea, we have a discounted extension already worked out with KP's agent
Washington: that's fine we forgot to call the rest of the other 28 NBA teams over the last month
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Peak TL was definitely a better rim protector than KP. KP deters some shots, but peak TL.....you just couldn't shoot anywhere near the basket.
However, peak TL doesn't exist anymore, and KP is a very useful defender.
Peak TL's defense and alley-oops were pure entertainment. AND the vertical spacing he created on offense was real.
Afraid PDX missed a window this summer to immediately move his dirt-cheap contract to a contender for draft capital.
His upside is wasted on a rebuilder.
Yeah, peak TL was a sight to behold. A force of nature. But it was clear last year that, even when TL was "healthy," peak TL was gone.
Hardy was part of it, but Mazzulla was usually reported as being their main scheme guy in the playoff run, if memory serves.
Celts starting 5 of White, Jrue, Jaylen, Tatum, Porzingis are averaging 98.5 point per game combined. Anyone able to figure out what starting lineup that played a significant number of minutes together averaged the most?
I think Mazzulla was in charge of the game plan going into the game while Will Hardy made most of the in-game adjustments
This would make sense of why Mazzulla may have struggled last year in game, with the calling of time outs and other in-game decisions. Now, with a year's experience under his belt, he's excelling not only at scheming the big picture, who's on the floor with whom, etc. But also making good in-game adjustments, too. Nothing like like learning on the job, and with the expansion of his job has come increased opportunities for learning. Which he is taking advantage of, to the benefit of all.
I don't know who averages the most, but just a glance at our closet EC rivals:
-Milwaukee: Lopez/Giannis/Beasley/Lillard/Middleton average 95.8 ppg
-Philly: Maxey/Harris/Melton/Embiid/Oubre average 103.8
Late to this but thank you for this excellent and informative post. I didn’t know these things, and they really run counter to the overriding narrative about this team. Great post.
The Celtics are 17-7 against teams who are over 500. The Bucks are 12-8 against over 500 teams and have played 4 more games against sub 500 teams. Some context for the show the Celtics are putting on right now.
FWIW, the passing has been the biggest surprise to me with this team as the year progresses. It's such a joy to watch them turn a 10ft contested shot with 6 seconds on the clock into a layup for someone else repeatedly. Guys are making their move and then finding other guys when defenses have to hedge or commit. And it's contagious.
That one where Tatum looked like he'd definitely take a stepback with 5 seconds on the clock, and then penetrated to dump to Kornet, was pretty.
The zone really swung the game in the 3rd quarter. Taking a page out of the Miami playbook, lets you play smaller guys like PP and have them be an asset rather than a liability on D. Jrue is what really makes it work, and they seem to only like playing it with him on the floor.
I thought that play and the next one were Tatum stepping his game up to yet another level. He gets that drive to the hoop with a behind-the-back that’s pretty new to his arsenal. On the following play, Pritchard sets a pick for Tatum but gets bodied out of the way. So PP sags off and Tatum hits him for a 3.
JT looking to pass out of the ISO at the right moment is a beautiful thing.
Jrue in the center of the zone is so good at maneuvering just a few feet here, flashing there, to cut off driving lanes. There's no place to go. And then he's strong enough to move anyone away from the basket when they flash to the foul line to take a pass. It's going to give people fits.
Four great assists from Tatum in the last half of the fourth. The dish to LK, finding PP for three, laying it off to Jrue for a momentum sapping three, and finding White in the corner for the back breaker.
His feet are so quick. Whether it be dancing around in the zone D as was posted in a recent video, one on one man defense where he can cut off the lane on any driver, or his quick hitch to the basket on offense, I don’t know that there is a quicker pair of feet in the NBA.
Celtics on pace for 64 wins, and have played a difficult schedule so far. They're in excellent shape. What I love about this team is that they can totally survive missing one of Tatum, Brown, or Porzingis. Maybe they will have a difficult time missing two of them, but they can afford to rest guys and still play at a high level without essentially forfeiting a game, even against good teams.
If they hit the playoffs healthy, they're going to be extremely difficult to beat in a 7-game series, especially if they have home court advantage. I feel ok saying the this team, as they sit right now, has the best chance of bringing the NBA title back to Boston since 2008.
If they hit the playoffs healthy, they're going to be extremely difficult to beat in a 7-game series, especially if they have home court advantage. I feel ok saying the this team, as they sit right now, has the best chance of bringing the NBA title back to Boston since 2008.
It feels like there will be some dog days coming up. Even last night, the energy in the building was really flat: tough game to get up for.
I'm expecting a lot more of these in the next couple months, and will not freak out if there are some flat games in there.
I'm expecting a lot more of these in the next couple months, and will not freak out if there are some flat games in there.
The Celtics have 3 B2Bs between now and the All Star break, including one coming up on the road in Texas. There are 2 trips to Miami in the next month as well, including a dreaded Sunday afternoon game. At the same time, only 5 of the 13 games in this period are on the road, and one of them is part of a home-and-home against Brooklyn. I do expect at least a couple of losses in there, including at least one of the 2 in Miami.
Then they have a busy schedule starting March 1st, including a western swing thru Denver and Phoenix, a 5-in-7 stretch, a 6 game east/midwest trip, and 2 games remaining against the Bucks (one home, one away). My assumption is that they will keep the throttle on just enough to earn a top 2 seed.
The upcoming schedule itself isn't horrible. I more mean that we're entering a part of the season where things seem to lag a bit, and where it's harder to get fired up.
Honestly I hope that there are some dogs. Psychologically, I think that it's great that they don't go super hardo for 82. All of the great teams of all time have some dog games where they don't show up, a few where guys were out, etc. If you keep the pedal down for the entire regular season, there's nothing left in the tank when you need it.
Agreed, and I wonder if we get a bit more bench mob minutes to see if Stevens/Oshae/PP/LK desire to show their stuff is part of how to manage that natural dip in enthusiasm.
I also hope they liberally rest the big guns during this period; the goal for this team is in May and June not in February.
I also hope they liberally rest the big guns during this period; the goal for this team is in May and June not in February.
Selfishly, I’m taking my kid to the Dallas game and I’d really like it if they didn’t punt that one.
I’m hoping they rest Al on the front in Houston and then the stay in Texas is easy enough that we get full squad in Dallas.
I’m hoping they rest Al on the front in Houston and then the stay in Texas is easy enough that we get full squad in Dallas.
I don't think they'll really punt any/many of them, and they will probably play 3-5 starters on most nights.
I think the rest will be more mental than physical: I doubt we see 2021-22 Celtics where you redline it from January to April. That team really took a lot out of itself mentally to sustain that playoff push.
Exactly. When the team runs six deep in guys who have been at least borderline all-star quality players, you can sit 1-2 of those guys every night and still not be punting. I don't think that Adam Silver will cast a glance in their direction for his "don't rest people" policy.
It's about being ok with having the occasional bad day, having the confidence that mailing in a game or two over the regular season doesn't belie some mental-toughness issues or lack of killer instinct. They're responding to their losses by absolutely smoking teams in the next game generally. It is reminiscent of the great Bird teams.
IIRC, at one point last night the lineup was Kornet, PP, Hauser, Al, and White (I think) with Brown getting a rest day. So, I think we might already be in the winter doldrums.
I don’t think it’s likely the Celtics drop out of the 1 seed. This team hasn’t been playing at full throttle aside from a handful of games they cared more about. They are pacing themselves, resting guys, and have had a couple no show games already. In other words, this isn’t the 2015-16 Warriors, this is the 2016-17 Warriors (maybe not quite that good), who are pacing themselves but still playing at a mid-60 win pace. I don’t think there’s any reason to think that will change or that the Sixers or Bucks can touch even 60 wins. The odds are this team locks up the 1 seed and home court throughout and then can rest and reset in April going into the playoffs.
I also think the team is still finding itself and needs to continue to take the regular season seriously as a result. I also think Tatum, Jaylen, and White are likely motivated to earn regular season awards/honors still, so they will keep playing hard for that reason. (Porzingis may be too but the way he talks makes me think he’s happy being a near-star on a great team rather than hunting for awards.)
I love Marcus but Jrue sees the court on the whole so much better than Marcus does I think it's Jrue's passing that has really rubbed off on the rest of the guys.
Last year's team would have had no chance against this year's team - if they had to play a playoff series, I suspect it would have been a sweep or at worst a gentlemen's sweep. Even if TL was healthy.
Definitely a huge part of it, but the overall offensive IQ has improved elsewhere as well. More DW. KP gets it. JT and JB are now unlocking more. This team looks more like 1986 than 2008 in the best ways.
Agreed. I have said it before but this is going to go down as a better team than 2008.