The Fallacy of the Anthony/Mayer/Teel "Window"

soxhop411 · Jan 19, 2024

the big problem with the premise of that article is that scouting back in 2010 (and even 2019) was a whole different animal than it is now... If Henry Owens or Lars Anderson were a "prospect" today, would they still be viewed as highly as they were then? I I have my doubts... especially with things like spin rate/barrel % etc that did not exist back then..

AB in DC · Jan 19, 2024

Rather than "top 3 in system", a better comp would be "top 50" or "top 100" in all of MLB.

I don't think a lot of those "top 3" prospects were that highly regarded.

AB in DC · Jan 19, 2024

In any case, the real fallacy is that waiting until 2026-ish before spending real money on improving the team would maximize the # of titles won. The playoffs are so random now, even an 88-90 win team can win if they get lucky. You can't win the raffle if you don't buy a ticket. And it's starting to sound like the Sox are giving up their shot now on the vague hope that they'll have better odds in this "window". I don't think that's the case.

LoLsapien · Jan 19, 2024

I mean, that chart basically explains how we won the 2018 world series. We don't do it without Mookie, Devers, JBJ, Benintendi, and Moncada (Sale). So, yeah, it's not a huge reach to say that it's super helpful to have great young cheap players to win championships. And we have a potential "wave" of exciting, young players coming. And if those guys flame out, our chances at a championship are materially decreased. So, like, how is the Mayer/Teel/Anthony class NOT a "window" into the future? Hopefully some other players, like @JM3 favorite minor league pitchers make a leap. But until then, our hopes kind of hinge on these highly rated kids.

CR67dream · Jan 19, 2024

Thanks for starting this, Tom. The ml system, our assets within it, and what it all means is by far my area of knowledge that needs the most work, both with the prospects themselves, and the overall outlook. I appreciate everyone who is taking the time to make it easier for those like me to understand the basic realities, or at least to help me to not be completely ignorant.

jbupstate · Jan 19, 2024

End of day it’s not bad to have a highly rated SS, C and CF. Will they all be all-stars? Probably not but it’s pretty good to see them at AA and with the chance the make the next step or two.

Absolutely shouldn’t plan a team around them. Still strength up the middle is a staple of good teams. Trade any for a potential difference maker SP.

HfxBob · Jan 19, 2024

AB in DC said:
In any case, the real fallacy is that waiting until 2026-ish before spending real money on improving the team would maximize the # of titles won. The playoffs are so random now, even an 88-90 win team can win if they get lucky. You can't win the raffle if you don't buy a ticket. And it's starting to sound like the Sox are giving up their shot now on the vague hope that they'll have better odds in this "window". I don't think that's the case.

In the last 3 World Series:
2021 Atlanta 88
2022 Philadelphia 87
2023 Arizona 84
Average of above 3 = 86.3 wins

Not in the last 3 World Series:
LA Dodgers - averaged 105.7 wins per season

Jed Zeppelin · Jan 19, 2024

Regardless of comps to past prospects, I think strict adherence to a prospect-based window is an extremely risky path, even if those guys pan out.

I have thought a lot about the 2013 team this offseason as I think the bones have been there to put together a similar kind of group that can be competitive and surprise a lot of people. I don't remember the responses to the multi-year deals for guys like Victorino and Napoli (the kinds of players we have seen the team attached to all offseason, actually), and sure enough both of them fell off a cliff post-2013, but I don't think anyone would say they regret those deals or wish we had waited for the Xander window when he was as good a prospect as we have had come through the system.

If Mayer/Anthony/Teel are strong enough of a prospect core to actually make future plans around, then you should be confident enough to sign multi-year players right now knowing that you can offset some of those costs down the road with those pre-arb studs at critical positions.

I have very high hopes for all three players and do not want them shipped out for short-term gain but you are setting them up to fail if the prevailing wisdom is "we're OK being bad until these guys get here." Trying to win is going to help give these guys a much softer landing while also forcing them to excel in order to break through a la Xander and Ellsbury in years past who were ostensibly blocked but contributed to WS winners anyway.

Even with the top guys it often takes some time to get comfy (Pedroia, Casas, many many others). I think you can plan ahead knowing you have these guys, but eschewing any multi-year deals because you want to keep all the powder dry for when you know that trio is breaking camp with the major league team is silly. What if you decide "OK full throttle for real this time" and still get outbid for the top free agent targets? It's just opening up a lot of uncertainty. And I say all this generally as a big fan of flexibility.

edit: A quick trip down memory lane informs me that Napoli was a 1 year deal who later signed a 2 year extension but the point remains.

Lose Remerswaal · Jan 19, 2024

AB in DC said:
In any case, the real fallacy is that waiting until 2026-ish before spending real money on improving the team would maximize the # of titles won. The playoffs are so random now, even an 88-90 win team can win if they get lucky. You can't win the raffle if you don't buy a ticket. And it's starting to sound like the Sox are giving up their shot now on the vague hope that they'll have better odds in this "window". I don't think that's the case.

Pounding the LIKE button. If the past few years (5th and 6th seed in 2023, 1st and 6th in 2022, 2 + 3 in '21, 1 and 4 in 2019. Hfx also has this well summarized while I was typing

jbupstate · Jan 19, 2024

The problem is you cannot buy everything you need to compete before you supplement with youth.

Fishy1 · Jan 19, 2024

LoLsapien said:
I mean, that chart basically explains how we won the 2018 world series. We don't do it without Mookie, Devers, JBJ, Benintendi, and Moncada (Sale). So, yeah, it's not a huge reach to say that it's super helpful to have great young cheap players to win championships. And we have a potential "wave" of exciting, young players coming. And if those guys flame out, our chances at a championship are materially decreased. So, like, how is the Mayer/Teel/Anthony class NOT a "window" into the future? Hopefully some other players, like @JM3 favorite minor league pitchers make a leap. But until then, our hopes kind of hinge on these highly rated kids.

Yeah, this is where I'm at. Sure, I see a lot of flameouts. I also see 11 guys with more than 10 career bWAR and another couple in there who might be headed in the direction (Houck, Casas). That's pretty good! This list also leaves out the guys who weren't top prospects (because that's not the point it's trying to make): but if you want to look at the success of the minor league system as a whole, counting in guys like Crawford, Bello, Christian Vasquez is important as well.

Now, I think @TomRicardo's point is nonetheless well-taken. Mayer's K rate is concerning, as is Anthony's. Teel has only had brief exposure to the minor leagues. A guy like Yorke I'm not even confident will be a useful up-and-down guy. Slotting them in for anything is premature. Nonetheless, having a solid pipeline of these guys is vital: you can't, unless you're the Yankees or Dodgers, buy everything.

I think, fwiw, that Teel and Anthony are more likely to be solid major league regulars than Mayer, but we'll see.

Jed Zeppelin said:
Regardless of comps to past prospects, I think strict adherence to a prospect-based window is an extremely risky path, even if those guys pan out.

I have thought a lot about the 2013 team this offseason as I think the bones have been there to put together a similar kind of group that can be competitive and surprise a lot of people. I don't remember the responses to the multi-year deals for guys like Victorino and Napoli (the kinds of players we have seen the team attached to all offseason, actually), and sure enough both of them fell off a cliff post-2013, but I don't think anyone would say they regret those deals or wish we had waited for the Xander window when he was as good a prospect as we have had come through the system.

If Mayer/Anthony/Teel are strong enough of a prospect core to actually make future plans around, then you should be confident enough to sign multi-year players right now knowing that you can offset some of those costs down the road with those pre-arb studs at critical positions.

I have very high hopes for all three players and do not want them shipped out for short-term gain but you are setting them up to fail if the prevailing wisdom is "we're OK being bad until these guys get here." Trying to win is going to help give these guys a much softer landing while also forcing them to excel in order to break through a la Xander and Ellsbury in years past who were ostensibly blocked but contributed to WS winners anyway.

Even with the top guys it often takes some time to get comfy (Pedroia, Casas, many many others). I think you can plan ahead knowing you have these guys, but eschewing any multi-year deals because you want to keep all the powder dry for when you know that trio is breaking camp with the major league team is silly. What if you decide "OK full throttle for real this time" and still get outbid for the top free agent targets? It's just opening up a lot of uncertainty. And I say all this generally as a big fan of flexibility.

This basically. I think the Sox will move on some short-term deals before camp breaks in order to mitigate risk in the rotation and in the lineup.

NickEsasky · Jan 19, 2024

jbupstate said:
The problem is you cannot buy everything you need to compete before you supplement with youth.

This is a straw man. Who’s asking for everything to be bought? I see people asking for another pitcher and a RH bat. Doesn’t seem unreasonable.

snowmanny · Jan 19, 2024

As a sort of aside, if you're talking about a window, you want a lot of WAR all at once. In 2018 Xander, Mookie, Benintendi, Rodriguez and Bradley put up a combined bref WAR of 25.5. Benintendi's career WAR of 16.1 doesn't reflect how valuable he was in the championship window, as he put up 4.8 that one year..

Philip Jeff Frye · Jan 19, 2024

LoLsapien said:
I mean, that chart basically explains how we won the 2018 world series. We don't do it without Mookie, Devers, JBJ, Benintendi, and Moncada (Sale). So, yeah, it's not a huge reach to say that it's super helpful to have great young cheap players to win championships. And we have a potential "wave" of exciting, young players coming. And if those guys flame out, our chances at a championship are materially decreased. So, like, how is the Mayer/Teel/Anthony class NOT a "window" into the future? Hopefully some other players, like @JM3 favorite minor league pitchers make a leap. But until then, our hopes kind of hinge on these highly rated kids.

But we also don't win in 2018 without David Price, Nate Eovaldi, Craig Kimbrel and JD Martinez. And while Sale and Porcello were acquired in trades, having the financial wherewithal to pay them is a reason they ended up in Boston. We'renot doing those things anymore, at least not very often.

Nobody is complaining that the Red Sox are trying too hard to have a productive farm system.

HfxBob · Jan 19, 2024

jbupstate said:
The problem is you cannot buy everything you need to compete before you supplement with youth.

Yes, it has to be a balanced approach.

jbupstate · Jan 19, 2024

Older (but great) article proving @TomRicardo point. Probably a bad overall strategy… unless you can really develop players overall that will be used as trade ammunition.

Fangraph - Success Rate 1st Round by Slot

simplicio · Jan 19, 2024

Betts: A+ 177 wrc+ (age 20), AA 166 wrc+ (21)
Teel: A+ 166 wrc+ (21), AA 167 wrc+ (21)
Anthony: A+ 164 wrc+ (19), AA 185 wrc+ (19)

Outside of Chavis repeating the level at 22 (151 wrc+), none of those sub-2 WAR guys came anywhere close to these AA numbers.

jbupstate · Jan 19, 2024

NickEsasky said:
This is a straw man. Who’s asking for everything to be bought? I’m see people asking for another pitcher and a RH bat. Doesn’t seem unreasonable.

Wasn’t making a definitive statement. Team need the pitcher and RH bat for sure …. But that’s to get in to hunt of wild card. I’m a glass half full guy but this team l, with those adds, needs a bunch of other things to happen for consistent success. Ex: Casas progresses, Devers pops, Duran/Abreu/Grissom grow, defensive improvement, injury luck, etc.

I agree money needs to be spent and prospects wash out.

RedOctober3829 · Jan 19, 2024

jbupstate said:
The problem is you cannot buy everything you need to compete before you supplement with youth.

No, but you can do it in stages and get a couple of building blocks in place. Then when the youth come up, you add more.

LostinNJ · Jan 19, 2024

The Diamondbacks made the World Series after winning only 84 games. We should emulate the Diamondbacks! They did it while ranking 21st in payroll. So doesn't that mean we should be shedding our high-priced players, not adding more of them?

simplicio · Jan 19, 2024

simplicio said:
Betts: A+ 177 wrc+ (age 20), AA 166 wrc+ (21)
Teel: A+ 166 wrc+ (21), AA 167 wrc+ (21)
Anthony: A+ 164 wrc+ (19), AA 185 wrc+ (19)

Outside of Chavis repeating the level at 22 (151 wrc+), none of those sub-2 WAR guys came anywhere close to these AA numbers.

Padding this out a bit from the top of the list:
Rizzo A+ 118 (19), A+ 118 (20), AA 118 (20)
Reddick A+ 151 (21), AA 89 (21), AA 138 (22)
Bogaerts A+ 144 (19), AA 159 (19), AA 153 (20)
Devers A+ 113 (19), AA 155 (20)
JBJ A+ 181 (22), AA 127 (22)
Benintendi A+ 164 (21), AA 138 (21)
Moncada A+ 156 (21), AA 152 (21)

So yeah, I'm not sure it was the intent, but this thread has made me more optimistic?

mikcou · Jan 19, 2024

soxhop411 said:
the big problem with the premise of that article is that scouting back in 2010 (and even 2019) was a whole different animal than it is now... If Henry Owens or Lars Anderson were a "prospect" today, would they still be viewed as highly as they were then? I I have my doubts... especially with things like spin rate/barrel % etc that did not exist back then..

I absolutely think Lars Anderson would be viewed quite favorably. As a 20 year old, he put up a 316/436/526 line in ~175 PAs in Portland after putting up 317/408/513 line in ~350 PA (albeit in Lancaster). The wheels kinda fell off after that year, but there was a reason he was a top 20 guy going into to 2009 (his age 21 season). Now maybe he'd be at 50 instead of 20 now, but if you really think that scouting would have him outside the top 100 now, then I dont think that is at all realistic. I'd also throw out that basically all of the low minors (definitely A/A+ and probably AA) as low A now has a lot of young guys who years ago would still be in short season A leagues and that has tiered through the levels. Guys become too good for A and A+ earlier now. That is just the function of not having an A- level.

Owens, I really have no idea. I suspect that he would be lower, but he had elite secondaries and a body type that had projection in it to add velo as he came into his mid 20s. It just didnt happen. Those guys are always viewed favorably.

The reality is that there is always going to be a relatively significant percentage of top prospects that dont work out. I can completely buy that scouting has made this slightly lower especially since 2010 (less so since 2019), but it isnt going away. There are still huge error bars on projecting these guys.

simplicio · Jan 19, 2024

Oh Anderson I missed, he did put up some good numbers in AA while young (162, 89, 187), but also stalled there a bit. Don't recall if there was an injury problem in his full age 21 season there.

HangingW/ScottCooper · Jan 19, 2024

jbupstate said:
End of day it’s not bad to have a highly rated SS, C and CF. Will they all be all-stars? Probably not but it’s pretty good to see them at AA and with the chance the make the next step or two.

Absolutely shouldn’t plan a team around them. Still strength up the middle is a staple of good teams. Trade any for a potential difference maker SP.

Wait a minute... do you mean to tell me that we don't have Jeter, Posada and Bernie in the minors?

This is a great thread, and while I understand the intent isn't to crap on prospects in general, there is such a level of unpredictability with them. How many on here were crushed when we dealt Anderson Espinoza or ecstatic when we flipped Renteria for Andy Marte?

sezwho · Jan 19, 2024

AB in DC said:
In any case, the real fallacy is that waiting until 2026-ish before spending real money on improving the team would maximize the # of titles won. The playoffs are so random now, even an 88-90 win team can win if they get lucky. You can't win the raffle if you don't buy a ticket. And it's starting to sound like the Sox are giving up their shot now on the vague hope that they'll have better odds in this "window". I don't think that's the case.

Also pounding LIKE.

There is however, a somewhat dark side to this observation. If you buy-and-hold your (subtext: position) prospects and spend on FA starting* pitching only to the minimum viable amount you can eventually probably bang out ~84 on vapors then just roll the dice. Maybe that's a bug, maybe that's a feature.

To be clear though, I'm not saying this is the plan and Breslow seems both sharp and aggressive. Even .97 is a whole lot of money.

*Bloom and the FO played in the deepest end of the RP pool so need to be explicit.

HfxBob · Jan 19, 2024

LostinNJ said:
The Diamondbacks made the World Series after winning only 84 games. We should emulate the Diamondbacks! They did it while ranking 21st in payroll. So doesn't that mean we should be shedding our high-priced players, not adding more of them?

That would be cherry-picking.

Brohamer of the Gods · Jan 19, 2024

Josh Reddick had a nice career - got a ring, a gold glove, made almost $70 million. He also produced 21 WAR between ages 25 and 30. I would kill to get that kind of production out of one of our young outfielders.

HfxBob · Jan 19, 2024

Brohamer of the Gods said:
Josh Reddick had a nice career - got a ring, a gold glove, made almost $70 million. He also produced 21 WAR between ages 25 and 30. I would kill to get that kind of production out of one of our young outfielders.

He was traded by the Sox for our new pitching coach, coincidentally enough.

ShaneTrot · Jan 19, 2024

I trust that the Red Sox know more about their prospects than we do. The Red Sox have pushed these guys through the minor leagues. With the loss of basically a level of the minors, we will see prospects thrown into the deep end of the pool much faster than in the past.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Jan 19, 2024

simplicio said:
Oh Anderson I missed, he did put up some good numbers in AA while young (162, 89, 187), but also stalled there a bit. Don't recall if there was an injury problem in his full age 21 season there.

IIRC he was really a product of Lancaster at that point in time and struggled TERRIBLY in Portland with the colder conditions and a normal-esque ballpark. He did rebound somewhat the following year but the age 21 year in Portland was the first time he had been exposed and struggled as a minor leaguer and he never really recovered.

Lars Anderson is a great poster child for the pitfalls of good prospects. All that hype and he wound up with 8 major league hits.

BaseballJones · Jan 19, 2024

And then there was trading Bagwell for Larry Andersen.

I kind of kid. But the point is that we want the Sox to have a huge pipeline of young talent, knowing that many/most of them won't pan out, but that some will, and those that will, will end up providing a cheap source of MLB talent that the Sox can supplement with higher priced acquisitions.

LoLsapien · Jan 19, 2024

Philip Jeff Frye said:
But we also don't win in 2018 without David Price, Nate Eovaldi, Craig Kimbrel and JD Martinez. And while Sale and Porcello were acquired in trades, having the financial wherewithal to pay them is a reason they ended up in Boston. We'renot doing those things anymore, at least not very often.

Nobody is complaining that the Red Sox are trying too hard to have a productive farm system.

Right, but the greatest WAR contributions of free agents, who are generally older players, are most likely to occur early in that contract. It's really hard to win a world series so I would think that you want to buy those big ticket free agents when they are *most likely* to help you win a championship. Price is a perfect example of this. He was critical to that World Series and his career was over shortly after that. Timing is critical. Even 2013- all (possibly hyperbole) those 3/39 guys contributed in year 1 of their contracts and fell apart by year 3. Buy these guys too early and you do yourself a disservice unless you believe it's possible to have sustained championship contention.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Jan 19, 2024

BaseballJones said:
And then there was trading Bagwell for Larry Andersen.

I kind of kid. But the point is that we want the Sox to have a huge pipeline of young talent, knowing that many/most of them won't pan out, but that some will, and those that will, will end up providing a cheap source of MLB talent that the Sox can supplement with higher priced acquisitions.

I agree with this. I will add the caveat that I think fans and people here fall into the trap of EXPECTING most prospects to all work out, instead of truly understanding that most of them turn out like Lars Anderson.

HfxBob · Jan 19, 2024

The prospect failure rate in baseball is much higher than in other sports. Baseball is hard.

John Marzano Olympic Hero · Jan 19, 2024

BaseballJones said:
And then there was trading Bagwell for Larry Andersen.

I kind of kid. But the point is that we want the Sox to have a huge pipeline of young talent, knowing that many/most of them won't pan out, but that some will, and those that will, will end up providing a cheap source of MLB talent that the Sox can supplement with higher priced acquisitions.

That happened almost 35 years ago. It sucked but we have to get passed it. Every team makes bad trades, but the thing is you need a GM that's confident enough in his and his scout's abilities to accurately figure out what players are true prospects and what ones are suspects. From what I recall, 90% of the Red Sox front office begged Lou Gorman not to trade Bagwell, but all Gorman saw were his low numbers in New Britain and thought that Scott Cooper was going to be better. Gorman didn't understand about how different parks play differently and I'm not even sure if he saw Bagwell play.

Most prospects you trade aren't going to bite you in the ass. A small amount do. The Sox shouldn't hold on to everyone just because they made a bad deal in 1990.

nvalvo · Jan 19, 2024

I don't think it's just Mayer/Anthony/Teel, though, although that's a great start. It's Bleis, it's Rafaela, it's Paulino, it's Yoelin Cespedes. The relatively sure things (as sure as prospects ever are, anyways) appropriately get the headlines, but there's a ton of ceiling in the system. These guys are all longer shots, of course, and not all of them will pan out. But they don't all have to in order to have a big impact.

I think this group looks a bit more like the Giants' farm circa 2009 or so than the Red Sox farm circa 2015. Posey and Bumgarner got the headlines (and deservedly so!), but it was the development of good-not-great prospects with question marks (like Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Nate Schierholtz, Jonathan Sanchez, Travis Ishikawa) into solid-to-good players that really deepened that team for their long run. Sanchez walked too many guys; Crawford had no power; Belt had good power and great patience, but the strike outs were an issue; Schierholtz had no carrying tool.

In 2009, the prospect press all thought Conor Gillaspie was going to be the next great Giants position player and some rated SP Tim Alderson (who? they traded him for oooooooold friend Freddy Sanchez) over Bumgarner. Brandon Crawford, 30 WAR franchise shortstop of the future, was ranked among the honorable mentions.

The Sox farm entering 2015 was unspeakably stacked, and was a consensus top system — more akin to the Orioles of the last two years or so. That Boston got waaaaay better really quick after 2015 was not surprising for fans who knew who Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Swihart, Barnes, Devers, et al., were, just like no one was shocked that the Orioles took a huge step forward — maybe the timing was surprising; I would have guessed next year — after promoting Rutschman and Henderson.

This is not that. This is a handful of top guys, followed by some guys with carrying tools and question marks. If we can make a couple of the Rafaela and Cespedes tier into the value equivalent of Brandons Belt and Crawford and pair that with a decent hit rate on the high-end guys... well, that's a recipe for a championship team.

Rovin Romine · Jan 19, 2024

BaseballJones said:
And then there was trading Bagwell for Larry Andersen.

I kind of kid. But the point is that we want the Sox to have a huge pipeline of young talent, knowing that many/most of them won't pan out, but that some will, and those that will, will end up providing a cheap source of MLB talent that the Sox can supplement with higher priced acquisitions.

I'm sort of confused that people don't think it's a good thing to have highly regarded MLB prospects in key positions, or that you can't build a team around younger players. The Orioles would certainly disagree.

billy ashley · Jan 19, 2024

I think its a mischaracterization calling it the Mayer, Anthony, Teal window.

Instead its the Devers, Casas, Bello and hopefully at least one of Mayer, Anthony or Teal.

The core isn't that great right now, but another cost controlled regular position player would go a long way to fixing that.

NickEsasky · Jan 19, 2024

LoLsapien said:
Right, but the greatest WAR contributions of free agents, who are generally older players, are most likely to occur early in that contract. It's really hard to win a world series so I would think that you want to buy those big ticket free agents when they are *most likely* to help you win a championship. Price is a perfect example of this. He was critical to that World Series and his career was over shortly after that. Timing is critical. Even 2013- all (possibly hyperbole) those 3/39 guys contributed in year 1 of their contracts and fell apart by year 3. Buy these guys too early and you do yourself a disservice unless you believe it's possible to have sustained championship contention.

Price is also an example of a player who took a team that finished in last place in the division the previous 2 years to first place in the division the year he came aboard.

8slim · Jan 19, 2024

Two thoughts…

1) It’s not like the 2024 Red Sox are bereft of young players who we expect to contribute meaningfully. Casas, Devers, Duran, Bello plus several guys entering their age 27/28 season. And whatever we get from Abreu and Rafealla. Yes the 3 minor league guys in question are all bigger prospects, but we also have some young, cost controlled talent right now.

2) 3+ seasons from now, assuming everything goes nicely well, thise 3 will be replacing fairly productive players. For example, it’s not like Mayer will be an incremental improvement over zero. He’ll be replacing Story, presumably. How much net WAR will this crew be adding over who’s currently here? Enough to go from 80-82 wins to 95?

Yo La Tengo · Jan 19, 2024

RedOctober3829 said:
No, but you can do it in stages and get a couple of building blocks in place. Then when the youth come up, you add more.

Agreed, and I think there is another key piece: there is value in having young players get the experience of playing in meaningful, competitive games in September and October. Being competitive this year makes the team better next year (and likely makes it easier to sign free agents as well).

As for trading prospects, if Corbin Burnes was signed for the next 4 years to a reasonable contract, I would definitely trade one of the top three prospects for him. But, right now, I don't see any available starters who would warrant trading away big names from the minors.

I suspect the Sox are willing to trade their mid-range prospects and/or young MLB players for a starting pitcher but the market isn't ready to move due to the list of available free agents. The Sox can't force a trade, so, rather than sign Ryu and Duvall now, they are (hopefully) waiting to see if Montgomery might be available on a deal that fits their plans.

nvalvo · Jan 19, 2024

I guess to tie this into TR's first post a bit more closely, sometimes Garin Cecchini is Garin Cecchini; but sometimes you get a Manuel Margot or a Mauricio Dubon.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Jan 19, 2024

Rovin Romine said:
I'm sort of confused that people don't think it's a good thing to have highly regarded MLB prospects in key positions, or that you can't build a team around younger players. The Orioles would certainly disagree.

The Orioles spent about 24 years wandering the wilderness before finally figuring things out so I'm not going to hold them up as some sort of model to follow.

Rovin Romine · Jan 19, 2024

NickEsasky said:
Price is also an example of a player who took a team that finished in last place in the division the previous 2 years to first place in the division the year he came aboard.

Surely, you don't mean to suggest that Price alone was responsible for the team going from 78 to 93 wins?

Yo La Tengo · Jan 19, 2024

As a conversation point rather than conclusive proof, here is a list of semi-recent trades where established players were swapped for promising prospects. While there are certainly examples of regrets in giving up a young player, a strong case could be made that landing the star player is the smarter move:

Yo La Tengo said:
With the exception of the Bartolo Colon to the Expos trade, it looks like the team trading prospects for veterans received equal or much higher value in each of these deals.

EDIT- added a few more deals. It is surprising how few of these prospects, traded for big names, ended up having any type of productive MLB careers, but the Lowe+Varitek and Bagwell deals weigh heavy in our collective memories.

(these are a somewhat random assortment of "big" deadline deals- feel free to add other notable deadline moves that I missed)

2008- Mark Teixeira to the Angels; Casey Kotchman and Minor Leaguer Stephen Marek to the Braves

1998- Randy Johnson to the Astros; Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and a player to be named (John Halama) to the Mariners

2008- CC Sabathia to the Brewers; Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson, Rob Bryson and a player to be named -- Michael Brantley -- to Cleveland

2008- Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers; Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris (from L.A.) and Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss to the Pirates; Jason Bay to the Red Sox

2015- Yoenis Céspedes to the Mets; Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa to the Tigers

2022- Juan Soto and Josh Bell to the Padres; C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore and Luke Voit and Minor Leaguers Robert Hassell III, James Wood and Jarlin Susana to the Nationals (too soon to tell)

2021- Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray, Donovan Casey and Gerardo Carrillo (too soon to tell)

2001- Bartolo Colon to the Expos. Cleveland's return of "Lee Stevens and prospects" netted them Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips.

2007- Teixeira to the Braves: Rangers bringing back Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz and Matt Harrison

Best trade deadline deal ever? 2004 a three-team trade involving the Astros, Royals and Athletics. The Astros sent reliever Octavio Dotel to the A's and catcher John Buck to the Royals. The A's sent Mark Teahen and Mike Wood to the Royals, and Beltran made his way to Houston. After the trade, in 90 regular season games, Beltran hit .258/.368/.559 with 17 doubles, 23 homers and 53 RBIs. He also stole a perfect 28 bases in 28 attempts. In the division series, Beltran hit .455/.500/1.091 with two doubles, four homers, nine RBIs and two steals. In the NLCS, he hit .417/.563/.958 with another four homers plus four stolen bases.

EDIT- a few more:

2014- I forgot the Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez, which should probably be added to the regret side of the ledger, even though Miller pitched well.

1987- John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander needs to be on here as a cautionary tale.

2008- Manny Machado for Cuban outfielder Yusniel Diaz. In addition, the Orioles received right-handed pitchers Dean Kremer and Zach Pop, third baseman Rylan Bannon and infielder Brey Velara.

2017- JD Martinez to Arizona for Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara and Jose King.

2017- Yu Darvish to Texas for outfielder/second baseman Willie Calhoun, pitcher A.J. Alexy and infielder Brendon Davis.

2015- Price was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd and Jairo Labourt.

2015- Johnny Cueto for Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb, and Cody Reed

Rovin Romine · Jan 19, 2024

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
The Orioles spent about 24 years wandering the wilderness before finally figuring things out so I'm not going to hold them up as some sort of model to follow.

Sure. But we're not really in that boat are we?

The issue is whether one should consider the young talent in the .org as possible contributors and plan accordingly, even if you don't know exactly which players will contribute and which won't.

I mean, personally, I'd rather have Casas than Eric Hosmer and whatever pieces Casas would have fetched with his busted leg in 2023. And yet, some here are hot to trade Mayer (shoulder) as quick as may be, and throw in Yorke as well, and maybe Pivetta for a volatile and unproven younger pitching arm.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Jan 19, 2024

Rovin Romine said:
Sure. But we're not really in that boat are we?

In as honest a voice as I can muster: not yet.

4 out of the last 5 years have largely stunk. If they don't figure things out soon, we're going to wake up one day in the near future and say "Boy, 9 out of the past 10 years have stunk." We don't think it could happen here but Baltimore was once a model organization too.

ShaneTrot · Jan 19, 2024

The other issue here is if I was a team with a good young cost-controlled starter, would I trade for any two of these guys? I am probably saying no, then countering by asking for Casas and one of these guys, and I don't believe the Sox would trade all 3 for one starter. The Sox have a good young cost controlled starter in Bello, in a hypothetical trade what would the Sox ask for?

bosockboy · Jan 19, 2024

billy ashley said:
I think its a mischaracterization calling it the Mayer, Anthony, Teal window.

Instead its the Devers, Casas, Bello and hopefully at least one of Mayer, Anthony or Teal.

The core isn't that great right now, but another cost controlled regular position player would go a long way to fixing that.

They’ve made a big bet that it’s Grissom.

The Fallacy of the Anthony/Mayer/Teel "Window"

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