The White Sox have reportedly been adamant in demanding two top prospects for Cease. Notably, they have also failed to trade him.
The Fallacy of the Anthony/Mayer/Teel "Window"
- Thread starter TomRicardo
- Start date
This isn't a binary choice. You can have a good farm system while also using that youth as capital to get major league talent. The Dodgers have done a great job at that. The Yankees haven't done too badly. The Astros as well. The Braves.
As has been said many, many times: there are ten positions on a baseball diamond and being too loaded at prospect depth can actually be a problem too. That's why the Sox were able to trade from a position of strength (third base) to acquire an ace like Chris Sale.
As far as building a team around younger players, there is some pitfalls to that strategy. It can take a long time. Prospects might not be as good as advertised. Then what? In the short term, are you willing to watch a few seasons of poor baseball if the kids aren't all right?
This isn't even addressing the elephant in the room that if the Sox weren't willing to sign their previous generations of younger stars to market level or slightly above market level contracts, what makes you think that they'd do it for MAT, etc? Assuming that the Sox are competitive in 2027 or 2028, who's to say that we're not back in this boom-bust cycle in ten years?
I looked at the top 40 prospects in the Fangraphs 2021 list.
Of those 25 were position players and 15 pitchers.
The average WAR in 2023 of the position players was 2.56. 16 had a War of >2, 10 had a War >3 in 2023.
5 of the top 15 position players in 2021 had a higher War than ANY current Red Sox player, and the 21st ranked player, Carroll, had an WAR of 6. This includes players who look like MVP candidates (Rutschman, Witt, Rodriguez and another who would have been - Franco).
Boston has 2 prospects in the top 25: Mayer and Anthony. It is PROBABLE one of those players is better than anyone that Boston has on the MLB roster, and they will probably arrive in '25.
If Boston hits on both - they will be a dramatically different team with a core under contract that looks damn good. So it makes sense Mayer and Anthony aren't going anywhere.
Anthony hit AA at 19. Mookie did not until he was 21.
BTW - the average WAR of the 15 pitchers in the top 40 is .96. Maybe 3 of those looks like a potential star. More than half are busts.
This is absolutely correct. Right now Mayer and Anthony are the two most highly regarded Sox Prospects since probably Devers. Casas was never as well regarded as them. Most these names listed are ranked less favorably than Cedanne Rafaela. That isn't to say they're locks to be productive players, but I think the premise is a little disingenuous unless you look at ranking across baseball rather than simply organizational ranking.
Everyone on this list under Casas and Duran is basically done (save Bryan Mata, but he's most likely a bust). Let's take a closer look at each:
1. Darwinzon Hernandez never appeared in a national top 100. He had electric stuff but very few people thought he could start. The command issues wouldn’t allow for that and as such he was a good, but not great prospect. We all know the deal with his career. He had some flashes in the pen, but washed out due to command.
2. Garin Cecchini was a super well regarded high school prep SS who came inton the organization with significant questions about his health and his ultimate defensive position. I’m frankly surprised he enver made a top 100 list. He was a very solid prospect. It didn’t work out as while he had a good hit skill, he didn’t do much to impact the baseball when he made contact and his defense relegated him toa corner OF.
3. Michael Chavis appeared in top 100 lists in 2018 and 2019, never being ranked higher than 79. He was an okay prospect, but like Chavis before him there were constant questions about where he’d end up positionally. If 2019 Chavis were magically transported into this system he’d probably rank around Nick Yorke. A guy worth following, with some major league skills but some clear shortcomings.
4. Henry Owens was a legit prospect. He made multupe top 100 lists (normally around 50). MLB pipeline was out of step with the rest of the publications, always ranking him higher than BA or BP, he peaked at 19 for them in 2019. If he were in our system today, he’d absolutely be our top pitching prospect, and he’d be in a fight with Teal and Rafael for the 3rd spot in the org.
5. Bobby Dalbec also appeared in several top 100 lists. He peaked at 75. He other rankings were in the 90s. Again, he’s more Rafaela than Roman Anthony.
6. Bryan Mata has never been nationally ranked. He absolutely was (is?) and intriguing arm but he’s never been able to stay healthy. Command has also always been an issue. Bryan Mata at his peak was nowhere near as well regarded as the current Boston trio of prospects.
7. Jay Groome was a legit prospect. He was considered for 1.1 in the draft but he fell in the draft due to signability questions and concerns about make up (which appeared to be totally unfair and possibly fed by the Padres to lower his price tag). He appeared in every publication after the draft. Anyone who followed him knows what happened next (injuries, loss of stuff, irrelevance). He received national rankings for how good he looked as an amateur but he never had sustained periods of success in the minors (unlike Mayer, Anthony, and Teal).
8. Anderson Espinosa was traded in part due to the fact that Boston had drafted Jay Groome. Awesome prospect. Filthy stuff. One of the best looking pitchers evaluators had ever seen as a teenager. His arm blew up with the Padres, he came back, it blew up again. He’s now a crappy reliver. TINSNAPP. Espinosa made a ton of lists, deservedly so. I don’t think I need to explain why a teenage pitching prospect is inherently more risky than a SS, C or CF.
9. Blake Swihart was a legit prospect. Made multiple top 20 lists in 2015. This is the first guy on this list that I think you can point to as a cautionary allegory. I have no qualms with that. The overall point is correct. Prospects, even good ones, fail all the time. Blake Swihart was a very good prospect.
10. Lars Anderson is another legit prospect that you can make this comparison to Anthony, Mayer and Teel. Was on every national publication for 3 years in a row. Peaked in the top 20.
11. Ryan Kalish was a good prospect who made several national top 100 lists. He peaked at 60. Other rankings were closer to 100. A prospect for sure… again, more like Rafaela or Nick Yorke than Roman Anthony.
12. Will Middlebrooks made several top 100 lists in 2012. All in the 50s. Another good but not elite prospect. He had some success in the majors, hit a rough patch and then severely broke his leg ending his career. His minor league track record is more similar to Nick Yorke than the 3 guys this post is about.
13. Sam Travis never appeared on a top 100 list. A hell of a NCAA hitter, you could argue that he’s kind of like Kyle Teal, without the minor league success, or the ability to play catcher. Some people really liked him on draft day (Keith Law amusingly preferred Travis to his teammate, Kyle Schwarber) but yeah, he’s just a name on this list. I don’t think there’s any meaningful lesson to be learned from Sam Travis, here.
14. Felix Doubount never appeared in a top 100 list. He was never a well regarded or well known prospect. He sort of came out of nowhere in 2010. Surprised at the negative career Bwar, I assumed he was above water.
15. Casey Kelly is another legit prospect who immediately after being drafted and excelling in the low minors, was a top 50 prospect. He was never a top 20 guy, though. He was also a pitcher, who also fell apart due to injuries. I’m not sure how helpful Casey Kelly is as a comp to 3 position players.
16. Anthony Ranaudo was a successful college pitcher who made the back end of a couple top 100 lists before ever registering a pitch in affiliated ball, due to his college success. Once he got into affiliated ball he stock plummeted and he was seen as a bust. HE did manage to turn around his trajectory and get a cup of coffee in the majors due to an excellent 2013 and 2014, after having been largely written off. He never appeared in a top 100 list after throwing a single pitch in affiliated ball though, so I don’t think you can really claim he was super well regarded.
Of all the names in the list provided only a handful were as well regarded as Mayer, Anthony and Teal. I'd list them as:
-Betts (cheating a bit because he graduated before he could be rated after his breakout)
-Devers
-Moncada
-Benintendi
-Swihart
-Anderson
Of that population, you got 2 real stars, 2 solid contributors with warts, and 2 busts.
I think most of us are not expecting Anthony, Teal and Mayer to all be stars. If we're lucky, 1 will be a star, 1 will be a decent regular and 1 will be a bust.
That's not the elephant in the room because it's not a factual statement, as evidenced by the Devers extension and the original Bogaerts extension. If your argument is actually "they didn't extend Mookie so they won't extend anyone" then say that.
They could have extended Bogaerts, they didn't want to. That's why Story was brought in. And Betts should've been extended.
Edit: And you know what? They screwed up the Lester signing too.
Sigh. Congrats on taking my general statement and trying to make it literal.
From 1998 through 2021 the Orioles had 5 winning seasons and NINETEEN losing ones. They were the VERY DEFINITION of a floundering organization.
Do you want the Red Sox to become the next Orioles? I certainly hope not.
Sometimes something big changes with a professional sports team, and what happened before that isn’t very relevant going forward. This was true for John Henry taking over in BOS and it’s also IMO true for Mike Elias in BAL.
I agree. At the same time.....I'm just saying. It's getting late awfully early around here. 4 terrible seasons out of the last five. If they can't get the ship turned around very soon, we're going to be looking at a slump the organization hasn't experienced since the early 80s. I am not on the "let's be patient" bandwagon because they've mostly stunk for 5 years already. The time for patience has come to an end. It's time to fix this mess and put together winning seasons. They have huge piles of money and an enormous fanbase. There's really no excuse now.
Hmm. It may be useful to consider what happened with the Orioles. They were sporadically in post-season play in 2012-16, and then the wheels fell off and they had 6 years of 4th but mostly 5th place finishes.
First off, courtesy of Boras, they handed Chris Davis a megadeal (for the time) and got basically zero out of him as he cratered from age 31 onward. Their next four highest paid players in 2017 were: Adam Jones, JJ Hardy, Ubaldo Jimeniz, and Mark Trumbo.
-Jones was extended as a GG AS and probably earned it, but then faded to only decent production for 2015-2018.
-Hardy's path was similar; a GG AS SS from 2012-14, but then at age 32 his bat cratered (JBJ style) for two the final (and most expensive) years of his contract.
-Jimenez was signed in FA at age 30 and had one average year as a starter and 3 terrible ones.
-Trumbo has the same pattern. FA age 30 who produces a decent year, and follows with one bad year, one passible one, and one awful one.
In some aspects (considering their top 5 players) the Orioles paid for their moderately successful 2012-16 with their longer term commitments to players. They overpaid for at best decent talent (Jones) and ended up wildly overpaying on the rest.
In 2017, those 5 were roughly $75M out of $164M.
I'm not entirely sure where this post is going as all three of those prospects were very different. Cecchini started out hot statistically, but was never thought of that highly by scouts (topped out in the 60s despite very good lines in the low minors) and basically floundered out in AA/AAA. Dubon was an interesting, but under the radar guy who became a nice utility player and Margot was a top 20 prospect who has a successful, if disappointing major league career. Can mark him down as another not bust, but not really anything that we would want Mayer, Teal, or Anthony to become. Similar to say Alex Verdugo as well.
Chris Davis had old player skills and extending him was an idiotic decision.
No one is saying that the Sox should extend everyone. But the Sox are largely in their current predicament because they had didn't extend the right player and then got a terrible return for him. They did this just after extending Sale for big money and getting more or less nothing from it. So it was a textbook failure.
No one is saying that the Sox should extend everyone. But the Sox are largely in their current predicament because they had didn't extend the right player and then got a terrible return for him. They did this just after extending Sale for big money and getting more or less nothing from it. So it was a textbook failure.
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No, of course not. But if the question under discussion is how long a rebuild process takes, then the last time the Orioles were genuinely competitive is a meaningful data point, no?
They've had a rough go of things, but they're more like the Mariners or Cubs than they are the Pirates or Rockies.
Right. And when it came time to negotiate to extend that opt-out, they completely low-balled him in Spring Training. After the season ended, Bloom and Kennedy both said that resigning Bogaerts was their "top priority", completely misread the market (so much so that Bloom literally needed a minute to compose himself before facing the press) and Bogaerts signed a monster contract in San Diego.
They're three biggest home grown free agents have left because the FO/ownership fucked it up. I have no confidence that they won't fuck it up in the future. Let's see what happens with Casas and Bello, but I expect both of those "greedy" players will be wearing different uniforms in less than five years.
I'm analogizing them not to the Mayer/Anthony/Teel types, but more to the tier behind them: the Rafaela/Bleis/Yorkes.
All three were prospects with carrying tools (contact, defense) and significant question marks elsewhere in their game. I would argue that all three had high ceilings, but only two of them were able to address the limitations in their game: Margot was ultimately able to make enough contact to be a good major leaguer. Dubon was able to muster enough pop to be useful in a utility role. Cecchini... was a positionless contact hitter with no power who didn't make much contact once he got promoted.
I'm unsure as to why the tone has changed here.
My overall point was to say that IMO prospects are not fallible and that developing a team via prospects has major pitfalls that a team like the Sox may be prone to hitting directly. Everything else is a "wait and see" mode.
The Orioles now have the inexpensive pieces but haven’t spent any money to get over the top. Must be hard to be an O’s fan.
They also outplayed their pythag by 7 games. They'll likely regress this year if only due to that.
They have the money (they just got $600m in free money to update their ball park), they just won't spend it. Two different things.
What is the two different things?
They have the pieces in place but need something to get over the top…. My comment was they haven’t spent to get over the top. I didn’t say they were short on money.
Grissom isn't a big bet. As a Chris Sale fan, the Sox jettisoned a 15 to 20 start pitcher with overmarket contract. Grissom is a good prospect, and hopefully he fills the blackhole that is second base.
But look across the field today and into tomorrow for cost controlled player that are either top 10 ranked largely at Double A and above ... or have had some success at the MLB level (with age as of today) :
C - Wong (27) / Teal (21)
1st - Casa (24)
2nd - Grissom (23) / Yorke (21)
3rd - NA
SS - Mayer (21) / Rafaela (23) / Romano (20) / Zanetello (18)
OF - Anthony (19) / Duran (27) / Abreau (24) / Rafaela (23) / Bleis (19)
P - ugghh Bello (24) / Hough (27) / Crawford (27) / Whitlock (27) / W Gonzalez (21) / Fitts (24) / Winckowski (25)
(Rafaela is listed twice)
I'm more optimistic. The Sox don't need (and won't get) 100% success rate. That's 13 position players who are cost controlled for 4 plus years (is Duran 3?) across 7 positions (excluding DH), and 7 pitchers. If the Sox get 1/2 All Stars, coupled with Casa and Devers, and 2/3 regulars that's a solid group.
It's young and low cost group. It seems like it could be reasonable defensively. But there simply isn't enough talented Pitching. That's where Perales, Bastardo, Monegro, Slaten (I excluded Mata and Walter....as they've been kicking around for years, it seems) need to make moves forward....or pitching will be the downfall going forward.
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My mistake, I read it that they didn't have the money to go over the top. You're correct.
That plus the fact that they replaced the AL Reliever of the Year (Bautista) with Craig Kimbrel.
Yeah, I don't really understand the premise here. There is nothing more valuable than a star on a pre-arb deal and no team really has enough money to stay competitive if they pay all their players market value. If you do generate a superstar, you can probably keep him his whole career if you have the cash and didn't piss him off, so that has a lot of value too.
But, you can't really "time" a prospect window because even if you could predict which players will be stars there is no good way of knowing how long it will take for them to get there. Also, since you can't trade draft picks, there's no real efficient way to rebuild like you can in other sports -- losing doesn't have a real advantage for the future especially now that there's a lottery.
The team should be constantly focusing a huge amount of resources in scouting and selecting the correct prospects and developing them correctly. That's very tough but everything flows from that and there are no shortcuts really. I also believe they should be spending on pieces to get the team into the range of making the playoffs because there is a lot of randomness once you get there. But those are less efficient dollars probably. So here we are, because they failed in developing young players for a few years they probably think that they would need a lot of outlay to be a playoff contender this year and it's smarter to wait. If they are a few games short of a playoff berth that will be a mistake.
But, you can't really "time" a prospect window because even if you could predict which players will be stars there is no good way of knowing how long it will take for them to get there. Also, since you can't trade draft picks, there's no real efficient way to rebuild like you can in other sports -- losing doesn't have a real advantage for the future especially now that there's a lottery.
The team should be constantly focusing a huge amount of resources in scouting and selecting the correct prospects and developing them correctly. That's very tough but everything flows from that and there are no shortcuts really. I also believe they should be spending on pieces to get the team into the range of making the playoffs because there is a lot of randomness once you get there. But those are less efficient dollars probably. So here we are, because they failed in developing young players for a few years they probably think that they would need a lot of outlay to be a playoff contender this year and it's smarter to wait. If they are a few games short of a playoff berth that will be a mistake.
I mean, it's generally safe to bet that a team that won 101 games will win less the next year, but in this case, they have so much young talent that I wouldn't be so sure.
They got nearly 200 innings from 35 year old Kyle Gibson, who was 15-9 despite not really being very good. He's likely to fall off even from that low mark this year.
OK, and they got John Means back.
Really not sure what we're doing here, BAL is as well positioned talent-wise as any team in baseball, even without spending any money at all.
It will be tough for them to crawl out of the cellar when they have to forfeit all their home games cause the fans have burned the place down.
I guess thats kinda my point and confusion. Margot, as a prospect, was more comparable to Mayer/Anthony/Teel. He was a consensus top 100 guy after his age 19 season, consensus top 50 after age 20 and consensus top 25 after age 21. He was a bit of an overshadowed guy given the depth of the Sox system at the time and the fact his skill set was pretty duplicative of a JBJ, but he was an elite/borderline elite guy rather than a very good guy.
Now if Bleis didnt get hurt maybe he'd have followed a similar path (and maybe he still will, just hasnt yet), but the rest of the guys don't seem particularly comparable.
Thanks for the breakdown. Although shouldn't your conclusion after all that be "on average" instead of "if we're lucky"?
In any case, prospects come up faster than ever these days, so even if you want to buy the "window" logic it starts NOW with those big 3 at AA already. I really hope disinterested owners don't turn us into a fake poverty franchise when we have top-5ish revenue.
Nope, sorry. You just have some recency bias here.
Red Sox Prospects Top Ranks in MLB Top 100 Prospects from Baseball America since Henry bought the team.
1 Andrew Benintendi 2017
1 Daisuke Matsuzaka 2007
2 Xander Bogaerts 2014
3 Yoan Moncada 2016
4 Clay Buchholz 2008
10 Marcelo Mayers 2023
10 Hanley Ramirez 2005
13 Jacoby Ellsbury 2008
17 Lars Anderson 2009
17 Blake Swihart 2015
18 Rafael Devers 2016/2017
19 Anderson Espinoza 2016
19 Triston Casas 2022
21 Ryan Westmoreland 2010
21 Roman Anthony 2024
21 Rusney Castillo 2015
22 Jon Lester 2006
24 Casey Kelly 2010
31 Jackie Bradley Jr 2013
31 Nick Yorke 2022
37 Jonathan Papelbon 2006
40 Matt Barnes 2013
40 Henry Owens 2014
43 Jay Groome 2017
49 Allen Webster 2013
51 Will Middlebrooks 2012
52 Jose Iglesias 2011
54 Craig Hansen 2006
59 Eduardo Rodriguez 2015
62 Kyle Teel 2024
64 Justin Masterson 2008
67 Anthony Ranuado 2011
71 Jeter Downs 2021
71 Ceddanne Rafaela 2023
72 Brandon Moss 2005
72 Manuel Margot 2015
73 Jed Lowrie 2008
74 Garin Cecchni 2014
75 Mookie Betts 2014
75 Bobby Dalbec 2020
75 Josh Reddick 2010
77 Dustin Pedroia 2006
78 Kelly Stoppach 2004
81 Daniel Bard 2007
82 Brian Johnson 2015
83 Mike Bowden 2007/2009
85 Michael Chavis 2018
87 Masataka Yoshida 2023
88 Miguel Bleis 2023
89 Trey Ball 2014
89 Michael Kopech 2016
91 Jarren Duren 2022
96 Ryan Kalish 2008
97 Drake Britton 2011
As you can see, Marcelo is regarded like Ellsbury and Hanley, Roman Anthony is around Rusney Castillo and Ryan Westmoreland, Nick Yorke was around JBJ and Papelbon but has fell off completely, Teel is around Anthony Ranuado and Craig Hansen (first ranking out of college), Rafaela is around Jeter Downs and Brandon Moss, and Bleis was around Yoshida and Trey Ball.
Sox #1 picks from 2011 through 2023 as posted on MLB's site: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2011/redsox/ with additional data concerning transactions from bb-ref.
As may be seen, many of the picks rated #1 haven't lasted with the Red Sox very long and they generally haven't brought a lot back. Chris Sale was a Red Sox for as many years as he was with the White Sox. While he missed a season with Boston that sort of evens up as Sale was a reliever in his first two season with CHW (4-3 with 12 saves in 94.1 IP. On the other hand, in order to get anything for him and out from the rest of his contract, they paid the Braves about 75% of what they paid him over his 7 years (I know, salaries are skyrocketing, but...).
2011--Jose Iglesias: 3+ seasons, 144 GP (3-team trade for Jake Peavy. Sox also gave up Cleuluis Rondon, Frankie Montas, J.B. Wendelken and received Brayan Villarreal-1GP/0-0 IP)
2012--Will Middlebrooks, 3 seasons, 232 GP (Dec 2014 traded to SDP for Ryan Hanigan 2016-46 89 G/314 PA, Nov 2016 FA)
2013-14--Xander Bogaerts, 10 seasons, 1264 GP (Nov 2022 FA)
2015-16--Yoan Moncada, 1 season, 8 GP (traded with Basabe, 8 GP in 2020 and Kopech 2022-23, 15-25 as starter/reliever for Chris Sale)
2017--Andrew Benintendi, 5 seasons, 485 GP (3-team trade + cash for Josh Winkowski 2022-23 9-11/15 GS/60 GR, 3 saves), Franchy Cordero (2021-22 132 GP + PTBNLs--Luis de la Rosa, Grant Gambrell, Freddy Valdez--minor leaguers)
2018-19--Michael Chavis, 2+ seasons, 180 GP (traded to PIT for Austin Davis 2021-22 3 GS/66 GR no saves)
2020--Jeter Downs, 1 season, 14 GP/41 PA (selected off waivers by WSN, Dec 2022, by NYY in Dec 2023)
2021--Triston Casas--1+ season, 159 GP (with BOS)
2022-23--Marcello Mayer, AA
As may be seen, many of the picks rated #1 haven't lasted with the Red Sox very long and they generally haven't brought a lot back. Chris Sale was a Red Sox for as many years as he was with the White Sox. While he missed a season with Boston that sort of evens up as Sale was a reliever in his first two season with CHW (4-3 with 12 saves in 94.1 IP. On the other hand, in order to get anything for him and out from the rest of his contract, they paid the Braves about 75% of what they paid him over his 7 years (I know, salaries are skyrocketing, but...).
2011--Jose Iglesias: 3+ seasons, 144 GP (3-team trade for Jake Peavy. Sox also gave up Cleuluis Rondon, Frankie Montas, J.B. Wendelken and received Brayan Villarreal-1GP/0-0 IP)
2012--Will Middlebrooks, 3 seasons, 232 GP (Dec 2014 traded to SDP for Ryan Hanigan 2016-46 89 G/314 PA, Nov 2016 FA)
2013-14--Xander Bogaerts, 10 seasons, 1264 GP (Nov 2022 FA)
2015-16--Yoan Moncada, 1 season, 8 GP (traded with Basabe, 8 GP in 2020 and Kopech 2022-23, 15-25 as starter/reliever for Chris Sale)
2017--Andrew Benintendi, 5 seasons, 485 GP (3-team trade + cash for Josh Winkowski 2022-23 9-11/15 GS/60 GR, 3 saves), Franchy Cordero (2021-22 132 GP + PTBNLs--Luis de la Rosa, Grant Gambrell, Freddy Valdez--minor leaguers)
2018-19--Michael Chavis, 2+ seasons, 180 GP (traded to PIT for Austin Davis 2021-22 3 GS/66 GR no saves)
2020--Jeter Downs, 1 season, 14 GP/41 PA (selected off waivers by WSN, Dec 2022, by NYY in Dec 2023)
2021--Triston Casas--1+ season, 159 GP (with BOS)
2022-23--Marcello Mayer, AA
Thanks for the expanded list. I think the conclusion is about the same though. Taking only players as well-rated as Teel or higher:
Stars:
2 Xander Bogaerts 2014
10 Hanley Ramirez 2005
13 Jacoby Ellsbury 2008
18 Rafael Devers 2016/2017
19 Triston Casas 2022 (being optimistic, but I think it's a safe bet based on his second half)
22 Jon Lester 2006
37 Jonathan Papelbon 2006
59 Eduardo Rodriguez 2015
Regular:
1 Andrew Benintendi 2017
1 Daisuke Matsuzaka 2007
3 Yoan Moncada 2016
4 Clay Buchholz 2008
31 Jackie Bradley Jr 2013
40 Matt Barnes 2013
52 Jose Iglesias 2011
Bust:
17 Lars Anderson 2009
17 Blake Swihart 2015
19 Anderson Espinoza 2016
21 Ryan Westmoreland 2010
21 Rusney Castillo 2015
24 Casey Kelly 2010
40 Henry Owens 2014
43 Jay Groome 2017
49 Allen Webster 2013
51 Will Middlebrooks 2012
54 Craig Hansen 2006
So with our current crop we're looking at 31% star, 27% regular, 42% bust. Which, again, supports the OP's conclusion that we shouldn't be waiting for a window. But we also shouldn't discount the likelihood of adding another star or two to our current crop (Devers/Casas/Bello).
By the way Bello was #49 in a BA midseason update. I assume you did only preseason lists?
Re: Anderson and Owens
Statcast would not smile on Lars, he had a long slow swing. Henry Owens wouldn’t have remained on the prospect lists as he aged just due to the lack of velocity. He didn’t really even a decade ago. My memory is that the changeup and results catapulted him into the top 50, where he began dropping as the fastball never came on.
Completely right on Owens. He was a projection play who had a potential 65 change and 60 curve but only a high 80s fastball that probably graded out as a 35/40 pitch. The idea was that with his length and frame he would get that to be 90-92 and 45-50 pitch. It just never happened.
Owens pitched pretty well with the Sox in ‘15, 63 innings at a 4.28 FIP as a 22 year old. He then completely lost the ability to throw strikes and was done with pro ball a few years later.
Yea, it was just a snapshot of this time each year for 21 years. Midseason rankings can get messy with promotions plus the draft.
I don't know man, I don't find historical rankings all that compelling. Every study shows wild variance outside of the top 10. While I agree there is probably something there, it's probably evidence of the lack of efficacy of using rankings as a predictor of future success rather than evidence of the volatility of prospects.
I think if you're planning on slotting guys into your lineups long term, you should be doing more micro analysis on those individual players. These three, in particular, feel pretty special. Mayer was hurt last year and still put up pretty strong expected data on a .223 BABIP before the injury caught up with him and he struck out 10 times in 18 at bats and they shut him down. He has a bit too much swing and miss on breaking balls, but I expect the Red Sox are predicting a healthy Mayer will pick up somewhat like he did in Greenville. If he does, he's a likely major league player with star upside.
Anthony has had one of the more meteoric rises in prospectdom in the last 10 years. His plate approach, power and overall offensive profile are outstanding. He started striking out a lot at the end of his time in Greenville. If he goes back to his normal k rate in Portland he likely vaults to one of the top 5 prospects in baseball status but I think there's more of a chance that he plateaus a bit and takes a bit longer to work out the kinks. His ascent is rare and I tend to be skeptical of those things. We'll see I guess.
Teel was awesome last year but we have 100 PA across 3 levels to evaluate and BABIP over .400. He was an awesome college hitter and those tend to move fast.
I think we will know by June if the Red Sox are making good bets here. i tend to think they are but they are not certainties. I also think what is under the hood of this offseason is that to get this team from the 80 win roster they are today to a "world series contender" they would need to use those three guys to get pitching that isn't all that compelling to me. The names that were rumored to be available (luzardo and Cease) are not the kind of guys you want to give up that kind of talent to acquire. That feels like a terrible bet. It appears that the rest of MLB agrees because those players haven't moved.
I think if you're planning on slotting guys into your lineups long term, you should be doing more micro analysis on those individual players. These three, in particular, feel pretty special. Mayer was hurt last year and still put up pretty strong expected data on a .223 BABIP before the injury caught up with him and he struck out 10 times in 18 at bats and they shut him down. He has a bit too much swing and miss on breaking balls, but I expect the Red Sox are predicting a healthy Mayer will pick up somewhat like he did in Greenville. If he does, he's a likely major league player with star upside.
Anthony has had one of the more meteoric rises in prospectdom in the last 10 years. His plate approach, power and overall offensive profile are outstanding. He started striking out a lot at the end of his time in Greenville. If he goes back to his normal k rate in Portland he likely vaults to one of the top 5 prospects in baseball status but I think there's more of a chance that he plateaus a bit and takes a bit longer to work out the kinks. His ascent is rare and I tend to be skeptical of those things. We'll see I guess.
Teel was awesome last year but we have 100 PA across 3 levels to evaluate and BABIP over .400. He was an awesome college hitter and those tend to move fast.
I think we will know by June if the Red Sox are making good bets here. i tend to think they are but they are not certainties. I also think what is under the hood of this offseason is that to get this team from the 80 win roster they are today to a "world series contender" they would need to use those three guys to get pitching that isn't all that compelling to me. The names that were rumored to be available (luzardo and Cease) are not the kind of guys you want to give up that kind of talent to acquire. That feels like a terrible bet. It appears that the rest of MLB agrees because those players haven't moved.
It's good to see the historic lists.
Anthony is 19 and just hit AA - did anyone on that list do that?
As I noted above - Anthony really is in a different class - and looked better in AA at 19 (in only 44 PA's to be sure) than Mookie looked in AA at 21. Devers hit AA at 20 and ended the year slugging nearly .500 for the Red Sox.
Anthony's numbers are better than Devers at 19.
Based on my review of Fangraphs position players in the top 20 Anthony has about a 50/50 chance at being a 5+ War player within 2 years, and over a 75% chance at being a 3+ War player.
Everytime I look at his numbers and compare them to other prospects from the last 5 years I come away thinking he is just in another class than all the other Red Sox prospects of the last 5 years.
Anthony's numbers are significantly better than Mookie's.
If Anthony is a 5 War player the Red Sox go from 36 total War to 40 - which is basically where the Orioles and Rays are.
Anthony is 19 and just hit AA - did anyone on that list do that?
As I noted above - Anthony really is in a different class - and looked better in AA at 19 (in only 44 PA's to be sure) than Mookie looked in AA at 21. Devers hit AA at 20 and ended the year slugging nearly .500 for the Red Sox.
Anthony's numbers are better than Devers at 19.
Based on my review of Fangraphs position players in the top 20 Anthony has about a 50/50 chance at being a 5+ War player within 2 years, and over a 75% chance at being a 3+ War player.
Everytime I look at his numbers and compare them to other prospects from the last 5 years I come away thinking he is just in another class than all the other Red Sox prospects of the last 5 years.
Anthony's numbers are significantly better than Mookie's.
If Anthony is a 5 War player the Red Sox go from 36 total War to 40 - which is basically where the Orioles and Rays are.
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