red sox preview/predictions

How many games will the 2024 Red Sox win?

  • 100 wins is still on the table!

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    123

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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i think the red sox are due for a 85-87 wins type of season u have good young hitters better pitching then the last 2 years Tor is going down turn TB can win 90 plus games but their postseason is spotty yankees have q marks in SP 2 through 5 can balt do it 2 years in a row

can cora keep his job past 2024
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
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i think the red sox are due for a 85-87 wins type of season u have good young hitters better pitching then the last 2 years Tor is going down turn TB can win 90 plus games but their postseason is spotty yankees have q marks in SP 2 through 5 can balt do it 2 years in a row

can cora keep his job past 2024
What?
 

CR67dream

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Read J-man's sig, he may have some issues with the keyboard, but he's a smart guy and valuable member. I think we can work with the opening post, and IMO we really need a dedicated discussion for our thoughts on the actual product we will see on the field, in a thread where I don't have to see the name "Werner". :)

Well more than once. ;)
 

phineas gage

New Member
Jan 2, 2009
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j-man, you are more optimistic than many here about the Red Sox.

The existing weaknesses in pitching and defense will, I think, keep them from reaching the level of 85 or more wins. Last place seems more likely than not.

But your lips to Gods ears.....
 

Delicious Sponge

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Defying offseason expectations, Red Sox win 88 games and are in contention for a playoff spot all season. Cora gets credit for the turnaround and is extended.
 

CR67dream

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Defying offseason expectations, Red Sox win 88 games and are in contention for a playoff spot all season. Cora gets credit for the turnaround and is extended.
It's only really a turnaround if they manage to continue to compete through September, so I don't think this is too far off. They were right there last year until the bottom fell out. There are many ways to address the issues that led to that, so yeah, I'm hopeful that lightning won't strike twice.

Generally, who do you think might step up and make the Sox better this year? Personally I'm jonesing to see Casas follow up on a great rookie season, and think Story will be a huge difference being there from day one. I look for Rafi to make a jump defensively and to settle in as the beast that he is offensively.

I'm psyched to see what we have in Giolito, who I see as a clear upgrade, and Pivetta seems primed to really put things together. The bullpen looks pretty solid, though year to year variance makes it anything but a sure thing. Depending on how things break, I can see anywhere from around 84-91 wins.

A lot can go wrong, and might, but right now that's about how I see it.
 

The_Dali

New Member
Jul 2, 2021
141
Yes sigs show on iOS when you look horizontally.

I’m nit as optimistic either. Sadly, we are in for another year of “hoping everyone stays healthy” and best-case scenarios for each player in order to be competitive.

probably 78-80 wins.
 
I think we are due for reversion to the mean in terms of injury. Anecdotally, the team has over the last two seasons suffered unusually badly from time lost to injuries. It must get better, no?

If we were chock a block with talent I would say “great, 92 wins!” but I’m concerned that we revert and have injury luck that exposes our distinct lack of 92 wins worth of everyday talent.

The rotation is no better than a .500 team’s rotation. The infield is likely exciting on offense, but with D at the corners and 2b being suspect, it doesn’t do the rotation any favors.

The outfield should be fine, but not a first division squad (anecdotally). At least Cora will no longer have to waste mental energy on Verdugo.

So I’m going to say 81 wins for .500 and 5th place AL East.
 

Delicious Sponge

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It's only really a turnaround if they manage to continue to compete through September, so I don't think this is too far off. They were right there last year until the bottom fell out. There are many ways to address the issues that led to that, so yeah, I'm hopeful that lightning won't strike twice.

Generally, who do you think might step up and make the Sox better this year? Personally I'm jonesing to see Casas follow up on a great rookie season, and think Story will be a huge difference being there from day one. I look for Rafi to make a jump defensively and to settle in as the beast that he is offensively.

I'm psyched to see what we have in Giolito, who I see as a clear upgrade, and Pivetta seems primed to really put things together. The bullpen looks pretty solid, though year to year variance makes it anything but a sure thing. Depending on how things break, I can see anywhere from around 84-91 wins.

A lot can go wrong, and might, but right now that's about how I see it.
Agree with all of this. I think Houck takes a big step forward as does Bello. Whitlock is in his relief ace role. Get some more length out of Crawford and you’ve got a solid 4/5.

The defensive upgrade from having Story at SS and a good 2B are going to be meaningful for the pitching staff.

There’s more here than meets the eye.
 

Mike473

New Member
Jul 31, 2006
90
I will throw in my thoughts as of tonight. By the way, I was at winter weekend today with my wife & daughter. We went into 3 rooms for autographs and pics. My daughter got autographs from Trevor Story, Marcelo Mayer & Roman Anthony. We got photos with David Ortiz, Jonny Gomes & Lou Merloni. We had a great time and don't live far from Springfield, so it was nice. I think this was the last year of the contract for MGM, so curious where it goes next year. Everyone was very friendly and it was a day to remember.

Things I feel good about:

- It seems Story feels great health wise heading into 2024. That is huge I think.

- I like Giolito, Bello & Pivetta in the rotation. I think they can pitch a lot of quality innings.

- I expect Devers to be better offensively and defensively next year.

- I like Casas and Duran and expect both to be improved.

- If the Braves were looking at Grissom as a potential short stop, I expect he will be "good enough" at second base defensively and provide some good consistency at the plate. I know he didn't ultimately work out at SS, but even if he was a marginal SS, I think he should be ok at 2B.

- I think Yoshida will be more consistent this year. I think the experience will help him a lot in preparation for year #2.

Things that make me nervous:

I feel like we need too many bounce back or improvement scenarios to happen all at once. And, for example, if Story misses a lot of time again, I just can't see the team being competitive for long.

They start out on the west coast for a long trip. I believe it is essential for this team to start the year playing well. If they get off to a bad start, any post season hopes could be over very quickly.

Bottom line, if this team has some good luck health wise, I could see them get into the mid 80s for wins and keep us entertained for most of the season. If they get off to a bad start or have bad luck with health, I could see low 70s for wins.
 

flredsoxfan

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May 29, 2012
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I'm afraid I'm not as optimistic as most folks here. The pitching just isn't there and I must hope for a relatively injury-free year from the pitching we do have along with a return to the Colorado version of Trevor Story, continued upward improvement for Casas, a successful move to 2B for Grissom and will somebody catch and throw the ball to the right base - the defense stinks. I also think the team could use new leadership on the field - I think Cora has run his course. I think 81 wins is a reach.
 

RS2004foreever

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Dec 15, 2022
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The first thing I am going to do in 2024 is check Anthony's stats in AA.
Anyway, Fangraphs has us at roughly 36 WAR and between 80 and 86 wins. Their prediction is on the optimistic side for Giolito and Grissom as well - so in total I think it is more likely they are too optimistic than too pessimistic.
If Story gets back to what he was that nets 1.5 WAR, if Casas continues to develop that nets another 1.5 War. Fangraphs doesn't like O'Neil much - you could easily get another 1.5 War there. So if those 3 things happen - which are more than possible - you are about even with the Orioles and Rays and headed for 86-90 wins.
The range is between 75 and 90 wins, and I will go with 79.
 

Yaz4Ever

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As currently constructed (and hoping for more like everyone else), I'm putting us at 83 wins.

Our defense will be improved and, hopefully, Giolito gives us the innings we need so we can avoid the opener nonsense and a more rested pen.

I may be optimistic, but I think these two things get us 5 more wins.

Add a stud SP and a strong RHH bat (Turner, Soler, whoever) and I'll update this post.
 

CR67dream

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Shouldn't we wait a month to do this? There might still be some key additions (I know, I know, "fool me once ...")
I'm not sure, but I added a poll, and there is an option to change one's vote, and the option to change one's tune in the thread is always available if there are changes. :)
 

jbupstate

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I feel they are firmly over .500 with 87 wins making a very successful season of competitive play and continued development of young players.

How? (Hope!). Original post from Path to 90 wins thread… edits in CAPS

Health of SP (+3)
- Nobody gets drilled by a batted ball
- Bello’s arm doesn’t fall off
- Bonus: One additional win for Sale = GUILITO BABY!
- B&B UNLOCK POTENTIAL

Improved Defense (+4)
- Casas and Yoshida settle in with slight improvement
- Dever takes step forward from horrible to just bad
- Story is excellent over full season
- Duran maintains
- O’Neil healthy in RF
- Rafaela strengthens MI/OF

Offense (+5)
- Devers stays hot all season
- Yoshida in consistent without huge 2H drop
- O’Neil stretches and hits bombs like Duval/Turner
- Story can hit .250 with power and speed
- Duran gets on base, havoc ensues
- Casas mashes for full season
- GRISSOM

Bullpen (even)
- No Bearclaw
- No Tilt
- No Ort
Still some time to make a move or two. I’m very excited to see Casas and Devers mash. At one point last year Duran was one of the most exciting player in baseball. Defense improvement having Story at short has to be a huge swing improvement. Better coaching of the pitching staff.

8 games over .500 last August but ended with 78 wins. I still believe Cora needed more accountability for the nosedive.
 

Norm loves Vera

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Dec 25, 2003
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Violent Femmes rule. :)

I can't remember who, but a member here once complained to the Sox because they played the bass riff from Blister in the Sun between innings. Not even the lyrics. I am still perplexed.
Maybe they were Camper Van Beethoven fans;)

I think they are a high 70's team with a low 80's team if luck is smiling on them. It's hard to get excited about this year's team (again.)
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Violent Femmes rule. :)

I can't remember who, but a member here once complained to the Sox because they played the bass riff from Blister in the Sun between innings. Not even the lyrics. I am still perplexed.
Went to see them in ‘87. A band called the Pixies was the opener.
 

CR67dream

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Went to see them in ‘87. A band called the Pixies was the opener.
Holy shit, that sounds like one of those "I didn't know what I was experiencing in the moment" experiences. Awesome.

The way I see it, the worse thing that can happen this year is that the Sox will hurt me bad. But I won't mind, they do it all the time. ;)
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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My vote would really be: "76-83, because they burned me when I was overly optimistic last year."

Eno Sarris in his recent mailbag pointed out that as the pitching goes, so go the Sox. (I know, "Duh!," right?) In recent years when they give up fewer than 700 runs, they win. He goes on to say:
"The major-league moves haven’t pointed to an obvious stockpiling of arms. They’ve added Lucas Giolito and subtracted Chris Sale. They’ve added some minor-league pitching and also subtracted some. But it’s also obvious that the team is aware of this correlation and is working to improve it. (And, for what it’s worth, I think Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Cutter Crawford and Tanner Houck are all major-league starters, and Bello and Pivetta have the upside to be good No. 2 starters, even in a postseason environment." (https://theathletic.com/5209431/2024/01/19/eno-sarris-mailbag-red-sox-juan-soto/)
Previously he had noted all the changes/additions to the pitching development/coaching department.
So if I were to be overly optimistic this year, it would be because the pitching will be better than we think.
 
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grepal

New Member
Jul 20, 2005
193
i think the red sox are due for a 85-87 wins type of season u have good young hitters better pitching then the last 2 years Tor is going down turn TB can win 90 plus games but their postseason is spotty yankees have q marks in SP 2 through 5 can balt do it 2 years in a row

can cora keep his job past 2024
It is the pitching in a very talented division which will lead to another 5th place finish unless an other team suffers catastrophic injuries.
 

cantor44

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As presently constituted - 80 wins. But with just 2 or 3 key additions they don't seem willing to make, we are talking possible wild card. Until then:

I take one, one, one 'cause of Mookie
And two, two, two for the bad D
And three, three, three for bad base running
And four, four, four for no big signings
And five, five, five for FSG
And six, six, six for my sorrow
And seven, seven for no tomorrow
And eight, eight, I forget was eight was for
But nine, nine, nine for more last place
Ten, ten, ten, ten for everything, everything, everything, everything

EDIT: Saw them live in 2019 (or 2018?). They were still fantastic. Biggest collection of 50-year-old white dudes with chin beards ever assembled.
 
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Ferm Sheller

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Mar 5, 2007
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Violent Femmes rule. :)

I can't remember who, but a member here once complained to the Sox because they played the bass riff from Blister in the Sun between innings. Not even the lyrics. I am still perplexed.
A bass riff from "Add It Up" would have really got that person going, I'm sure.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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I chose the 84-91 range, which is a pretty big spread. The infield defense has improved mightily, and Bailey is going to be pretty helpful.

Giants pitchers had the #1 ground ball rate as a team (48.7%) by 3 whole percentage points over the #2 team (St. Louis at 45.4%). A lot of that is his personnel, but he's also helped quite a few of those guys become more ground ball pitchers than they already were.

Also Breslow's not done.
 

sezwho

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Holy shit, that sounds like one of those "I didn't know what I was experiencing in the moment" experiences. Awesome.

The way I see it, the worse thing that can happen this year is that the Sox will hurt me bad. But I won't mind, they do it all the time. ;)
Well played! And Pixies as opener? Holy smokes.

They were in my head because my buddy just saw them play the whole album in Boston celebrating 40th anniversary’s. Sick.
 

CR67dream

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I chose the 84-91 range, which is a pretty big spread
Yeah, I used ranges on the long end mainly because I couldn't come up with a tighter range that fit for me personally. A floor and ceiling thing I guess. Not scientific for sure, :) It's also good to leave room for clarification and discussion. I'm definitely on the lower end of 84-91 right now, but not breaking .500 by a few games would be a disappointment.

I mean just looking around the infield, I see Devers and Story being on the left side from day one as a huge upgrade. I mean, they haven't spent this year, but there's a lot of big dollars in that duo, and I want to see what it can do protecting that side. And I haven't written Story off offensively yet at all. He's got all spring to work on his timing. And let me ask this; if either or both of these guys don't live up, then what does that say about the gamble of throwing money around? But I digress.

I also think Casas is going to be a beast. He's trending that way, and he's young. I expect him to be better defensively and his plate appearances will be must see for me. Add Grissom, who is admittedly an unknown but I think most agree is a better option than anything we had last year at second, and I'm pretty high on our infield coming in. And I like our catching.

I'm also excited to see how they split time in the outfield and DH. No superstars there, but they are not bereft of talent. I haven't even done the pitching yet, maybe I'll do it later, but I like a lot of what's already here. I still want one more arm to stretch depth, but even a Paxton type would do for me.

I don't know, but in a way, it's sort of like my wait and see view with the ownership group*, except when I actually look at the actual players, the new FO and coaches, and separate that from what we don't have or didn't get, I see some credibility that it may not be as bad as it looks.

Edit: Changed front office to ownership group.
 
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Reverse Curve

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Sep 11, 2021
82
Voted # 3 - 84-91 wins, on the lower end of the range, call it 86. I still have faith though.
Just because I cannot see it, doesn't mean I can't believe it...
 

grepal

New Member
Jul 20, 2005
193
Chose 76-83 but could surprise. As currently construed I think they come in near the top end of that number. If we add Monty and a decent RH bat it moves me into the 84-91 range.
That would be huge and keep me interested. Say Soler and Montgomery and we may be in it at the deadline, then we can see if ownership wants to win.
 

Fishy1

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Nov 10, 2006
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I'm betting 84-91 because I think this team has a lot of young contributors who are new to their role and have a decent likelihood of improvement and better security at 2B and SS, and a lot of exciting talent in the outfield, but also because I don't think this team is done adding: one or both of a SP and a bat. I think they'd like to get out from under some major payroll obligations before they did that - Yoshida and Jansen seem like the deadest weight, to me, and neither of them are bad players. Removing either of them is not going to effect your record overmuch, I don't think.
 

Bigpupp

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After rosters expanded, the Sox were on something like a 110 loss pace. Since then, they've somehow gotten worse.

We can make a lot of excuses for why that is, but this team needed a LOT of help, and basically got none. It's going to be bad.
 

absintheofmalaise

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I chose 84-91 and think it will be closer to 84 than 91. I'm not as up on the pitchers as I should be, so I'll just go with how I think the team will improve with position players.

As others have mentioned, having a full year of Story at SS will be a huge plus defensively and it should also take some pressure off of Devers on defense. Last season it looked like he was trying to do too much on defense. If Grissom plays 2B close to how he played for Atlanta in 2022 many here will be very happy. It was night and day to how he was at SS in 2023. Also, if Grissom plays 2B the way I expect that should also allow Story to cheat by a step or two to his right which will also take pressure off of Devers.

To my eyes Casas improved at first over the course of the season. If that trend continues it should also help with the other three IFs because it will give them more confidence that their throws will be caught and they won't have to worry about making the perfect throw all the time.

Hopefully Yoshida will be more of a DH, at least away from Fenway. Balls that got through the 5 and 6 holes last season caused more scoring than they should have with him in left. It might be me wish casting, but that should improve.

On offense I'm very excited about what a full season of Duran will look like. He was must see TV in June and especially July. I'm also looking for improvement from Yoshida because he knows what a full season in MLB will do to his body and he should be training more towards not getting run down by the extensive travel that he wasn't used to. A full ST should help Story on offense. Grissom has the hit tools to add on offense too. This will also be the second full season for Casas. Last year he really blossomed at the plate and that trend should continue.

O'Neill should also be an improvement on Verdugo on offense, mainly because he has more power. The on base skills aren't as good, but more homers and doubles will add to the offense.

But I've been wrong before. We'll see.

And I do feel that they need another RH bat who can play multiple positions.
 

opes

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No improvement has been made. This is a last place team in the AL east. I doubt they go under 76 wins, but its irritating the front office hasn't made any serious moves. I understand they might have been priced out for the top FA's. I get that. But the signings they have made will not move the needle. We all hope the younger guys improve and Story bounces back, but I'm not sure everyone will improve like we hope. I do look forward to the young guys, but I can't see how they make the playoffs.
 

Bigpupp

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A bunch of us have taken the time to argue the opposite while explaining our reasoning. What's your argument that they're "worse"?
Offensively I wouldn't be surprised if we were slightly better or worse. I think Dugie, Turner and Duvall are simply better than O'Neill, and Grissom, but YMMV. The rest of the offense is the same, so we're really just banking on improvements from a few guys while hoping that the rookies September's weren't a mirage.

But honestly, the offense wasn't the problem, it was the starting pitchers. All we've done with that is replace two starters with ERA+ of >100 ERA+ with one that wasn't.

As I said in the last post, we can make excuses for why Giolitos numbers dropped, or why Grissoms numbers weren't good in MLB last year, or why this or that, but I just don't see the improvement that some of you do.
 

CR67dream

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Offensively I wouldn't be surprised if we were slightly better or worse. I think Dugie, Turner and Duvall are simply better than O'Neill, and Grissom, but YMMV. The rest of the offense is the same, so we're really just banking on improvements from a few guys while hoping that the rookies September's weren't a mirage.

But honestly, the offense wasn't the problem, it was the starting pitchers. All we've done with that is replace two starters with ERA+ of >100 ERA+ with one that wasn't.

As I said in the last post, we can make excuses for why Giolitos numbers dropped, or why Grissoms numbers weren't good in MLB last year, or why this or that, but I just don't see the improvement that some of you do.
Thanks, fair enough, that's all reasonable. Do you see an improvement in defense, particularly in the infield? And I think the offense is different in that Story comes in with a full spring, and I think he's been largely ignored as an upgrade. Also, I won't quibble with Grissom vs Dugie, Turner, or Duvall, but I will say I expect significantly better offense from second base this year.

I appreciate your perspective, and I am not expecting miracles, but I just can't get to being worse.
 

Bigpupp

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Thanks, fair enough, that's all reasonable. Do you see an improvement in defense, particularly in the infield? And I think the offense is different in that Story comes in with a full spring, and I think he's been largely ignored as an upgrade. Also, I won't quibble with Grissom vs Dugie, Turner, or Duvall, but I will say I expect significantly better offense from second base this year.

I appreciate your perspective, and I am not expecting miracles, but I just can't get to being worse.
Oh, for sure. I don't think expecting improvements is out of the question, and I certainly won't be calling people out for having a different opinion.

In fact, I think the real difference in my opinion is that I'm starting from the loss pace of September, and other people are either starting from the whole season total or the pace they were on at the trade deadline.

If they, as I suspect, were closer to having a true talent level of a 100+ loss team, then getting back to 78 wins is going to be a big, big challenge.
 

absintheofmalaise

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The pitching all season was an issue, as has been discussed in numerous threads. But the offense, while good at times, really fell off a cliff in September and October.
I'll use OPS for all here. Duran didn't play a game after August 10. OPS for Yoshida after July was .640 and .656 respectively. Devers' best month was July - 1.057. The last two months he was .823 and .869. Casas was still good, but he only played in 13 games.
Story improved a little from his 18 games in August, but that was to a still dismal .587. Verdugo was even worse at only .509 after an OPS of .835 in August.
They were 69-65 at the end of August and went 8-19.
I am not saying that a lot of the losses don't fall on the pitching staff, but there's also a lot of room for improvement on offense. There were players MIA, both literally and when they were playing. Again, another RH bat will help too.+

Runs per game by month:
March/April - 5.62
May - 4.69
June - 4.17
July - 5.39
August - 4.96
Sept/Oct - 3.82

From B-ref:
76925
 

6-5 Sadler

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But the offense, while good at times, really fell off a cliff in September and October.
Does anyone have any theories on why this happened? I was looking at monthly splits the other day and noticed our K rates exploded in Sep. Here are the increases from Apr-Aug vs Sep for the hitters that had meaningful PAs in both time frames:

Devers 18.8% -> 21.1%
Verdugo 14.9% -> 19.5%
Turner 16.1% -> 24.8%
Yoshida 12.3% -> 23.5%
Casas 24.9% -> 26.3%
Wong 32.8% -> 35.4%
Duvall 28.5% -> 40.5%
 

FlexFlexerson

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"76-83, but they could surprise" really seems right. I wish I had more to add - just to say the arguments of both the optimists and pessimists have some merit, and I do think Breslow has made some savvy upgrades with what should be an improved defense. So the high end of the 83 range feels about right, and maybe upside beyond that if the talk from Bailey about finding improvements in the rotation is for real. On the other hand, it seems like we can't really afford much regression from anyone, particularly the youngsters, or major injuries or the bottom will fall out pretty fast.
 

absintheofmalaise

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Does anyone have any theories on why this happened? I was looking at monthly splits the other day and noticed our K rates exploded in Sep. Here are the increases from Apr-Aug vs Sep for the hitters that had meaningful PAs in both time frames:

Devers 18.8% -> 21.1%
Verdugo 14.9% -> 19.5%
Turner 16.1% -> 24.8%
Yoshida 12.3% -> 23.5%
Casas 24.9% -> 26.3%
Wong 32.8% -> 35.4%
Duvall 28.5% -> 40.5%
I could see Duran not causing disruption on the bases being one factor. I think Yoshida was just worn out. Duvall is the definition of a streaky hitter, but that jump is just nuts. Casas only played in about half the games so that's a smaller sample. A handful of good games could easily change that number. No idea on the others. You could also throw in lack of protection in the lineup.