red sox preview/predictions

[OCD SS]

Call it a snapshot it time…

 

[CR67dream]

I usually do this every March. . .it's January.

This doesn't preclude that, . Might be interesting to see if minds move over time. This is also as much of a "what do we have if nothing else happens" thing to analyze how dire things on the field really are, as currently constituted, as anything. Hopefully we'll have a fuller understanding of the final product in a month or so.

 

[CR67dream]

Well played! And Pixies as opener? Holy smokes.

Thanks, but I bow to the following,

As presently constituted - 80 wins. But with just 2 or 3 key additions they don't seem willing to make, we are talking possible wild card. Until then:

I take one, one, one 'cause of Mookie
And two, two, two for the bad D
And three, three, three for bad base running
And four, four, four for no big signings
And five, five, five for FSG
And six, six, six for my sorrow
And seven, seven for no tomorrow
And eight, eight, I forget was eight was for
But nine, nine, nine for more last place
Ten, ten, ten, ten for everything, everything, everything, everything

EDIT: Saw them live in 2019 (or 2018?). They were still fantastic. Biggest collection of 50-year-old white dudes with chin beards ever assembled.

 

[LostinNJ]

Even without further additions (but there will be a couple), this team is better than last year's: better at ss, better at 2b, better at 1b without the early-season struggles, better outfield defense, and improvement in the rotation (expecting good things from Pivetta and Crawford especially, but also Bello, and even Giolito). They may not make the playoffs (I kind of doubt they will), but they'll be more fun to watch.

 

[simplicio]

Does anyone have any theories on why this happened? I was looking at monthly splits the other day and noticed our K rates exploded in Sep. Here are the increases from Apr-Aug vs Sep for the hitters that had meaningful PAs in both time frames:

Devers 18.8% -> 21.1%
Verdugo 14.9% -> 19.5%
Turner 16.1% -> 24.8%
Yoshida 12.3% -> 23.5%
Casas 24.9% -> 26.3%
Wong 32.8% -> 35.4%
Duvall 28.5% -> 40.5%

Once they brought up Dalbec and his 52% it was all over.

 

[tbrown_01923]

While I may have been pessimistic given the current state of the rotation, I want to take a positive lens and put faith in their heavy investment in well respected pitching leadership. Also I am taking the optimistic lens on Grissom and Masa. I don't think Grissom is above average but I would be very surprised if he is significantly worse than any of the mess we rolled out in the middle infield (prior to story's return) last year. Therefore 84-91 wins. I am discounting what happened down the stretch last year - officially I am on the low end of that 84 or 85 wins.

I hope the Bloom approach of "Competing and Rebuilding" is over. If we are on the fringe of the playoffs come the trade deadline make a decision and pursue a single strategy.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

The Athletic has an article on the ZiPS projections:
https://theathletic.com/5242311/2024/02/02/boston-red-sox-2024-projections/
As of now, the team is projected to go 82-80, which despite the winning record, would be last place again in this crazy division.

Just noting that on Fangraphs, most projections have Montgomery being worth around 3 wins this year, and Soler, despite the bad defense, worth around 2.
Ryu is projected to be worth about 1 win. Duvall slightly less than 1.

 

[InsideTheParker]

The Athletic has an article on the ZiPS projections:
https://theathletic.com/5242311/2024/02/02/boston-red-sox-2024-projections/
As of now, the team is projected to go 82-80, which despite the winning record, would be last place again in this crazy division.

Just noting that on Fangraphs, most projections have Montgomery being worth around 3 wins this year, and Soler, despite the bad defense, worth around 2.
Ryu is projected to be worth about 1 win. Duvall slightly less than 1.

Did you find their predictions for Casas as weird as I did, given that he had a sort of split season, where he only took off in the second half?

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Did you find their predictions for Casas as weird as I did, given that he had a sort of split season, where he only took off in the second half?

Not too weird to me, they have him really close to what he did last year. I wouldn't be surprised if he beat that projection but the "sophomore slump" has happened to plenty of players in the past.

And as this positive recap of his rookie season states, Casas has missed at least a few weeks with injuries 3 times over the past 2 seasons:
https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/11/30/23982483/2023-red-sox-in-review-triston-casas-broke-out-analysis

First and foremost, Casas’ season ended early with shoulder inflammation, missing the final 16 games of the season. This has started to become a trend for Casas, who missed over two months of the 2022 season in Triple-A with a high ankle sprain. The team tried to compensate for the fewer at-bats, sending Casas to the Dominican Winter League where he was pulled out of there after just a couple of games due to knee soreness. Now that he’s mixing in a shoulder injury, his health is something to keep an eye on.

None of those injuries should be recurring problems, but missing time with 3 injuries in about a year and a half seems like a logical reason to hold down on the expectations on his total projected number of HRs next year.

It was nice to see a positive projection for Yoshida, with them projecting a 117 RC+, a solid improvement over last year's 109.
ZiPS also loves Tyler O'Neill: .826 OPS, 120 RC+.
And they project Grissom to hit a solid .771, 108.