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Jimbodandy

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Honest question: why is what the Dodgers are doing greed? They have significant financial resources and they are going all-in to leverage them to make their team better and more exciting. After watching how this ownership group for the Red Sox now operates, I find that almost refreshing.

There is going to be a reckoning at some point for LA but it’ll be a hell of a ride before that reckoning comes.
This. I am thoroughly confused with the weird judgmentalism towards actually spending money on payroll.

I'm fine with the whole player development machine approach, once there's some evidence that we're on the way to having that. But right now we have some top position player prospects--exciting ones at that--and very little pitching in the system. We're doing nothing to address that, while the Dodgers are going for it now. Since when is GFIN gross? I do not understand.
 

Max Power

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This. I am thoroughly confused with the weird judgmentalism towards actually spending money on payroll.

I'm fine with the whole player development machine approach, once there's some evidence that we're on the way to having that. But right now we have some top position player prospects--exciting ones at that--and very little pitching in the system. We're doing nothing to address that, while the Dodgers are going for it now. Since when is GFIN gross? I do not understand.
Were you a big fan of the Steinbrenner Yankees? Getting all the free agents they want is reminding people of that and they're reacting negatively.
 

CR67dream

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How is it obscene? It is literally the last thing advertisers can use the old model of television on. It makes sense that a well run organization can make money hand over fist by producing an interesting product. Trying to begrudge labor for making their piece of the value of the product they produce is obscene.
That's not at all what I'm doing at all, didn't mean it to come off that way, and as I said I'm not going to go deep here .There are a few levels to my thoughts, but begrudging the players isn't part of it. And as I said, I know I'm an outlier. I concede again that I should have used a word like "overkill" rather than "greed" initially, but it doesn't materially change the way I feel about the big picture.

And to tell you the truth, I'm just not inclined to argue too much about it, because by no means am I asking people to think the way I do. I'm fine if people think I'm out to lunch on this one. And maybe I am, it would be far from the first time, but I can only be me.
 

Jimbodandy

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Were you a big fan of the Steinbrenner Yankees? Getting all the free agents they want is reminding people of that and they're reacting negatively.
I'm not a fan of any iteration of Yankees.

I'm confused as to how Red Sox fans point the finger here, since we were the beneficiaries of a top-3 (and sometimes top-1) payroll for the better part of twenty years. Now that we're all Burlington Coat Factory, spending is bad? Am I reading that right?
 

cantor44

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Yea I mean the goal post are constantly shifting.

We had been told over and over again they have to add starting pitching. Kennedy, Breslow, Cora. Over and over and over again.

Right now Cooper Criswell is your 6th starter. Pitchers get injured.

They had swapped out Sale and Paxton for Giolito.

They have done NOTHING to support to the starting staff.

They have time to add, but I doubt they add an arm with higher upside than Paxton at this point.

Did people watch the games in September? It was legitimately sad. Well, you’re an injury away from September again.

They won’t trade the big 3. They won’t sign long term commitments. They have enormous roster holes…. I don’t know. It’s hard to be bullish.
Yeah, honestly something really strange is going on inside the Boston Red Sox organization. First, we were in on the top FA arms. Then we weren't - it was the next tier dudes the team could "afford." So, we got one (though maybe Giolito is actually tier 3 rather than tier 2), with the suggestion more was on the way - a tier 2 guy (Storman)? - nope. Another tier 3 guy (Paxton)?, nope. A trade using some of our redundancies? Nope. Then we'd get a RHH power bat (Teoscar, Soler). Nope, not that either, without moving some contracts, which hasn't happened.

Breslow and Werner said initially, no financial restraints. Then Kennedy says later, payroll will drop this year. That is a massive public 180 and suggests things are really confused inside that organization.

I mean - what the hell is going on???

My latest conspiracy-minded theory is not some financial scheme, but the John Henry is falling off his goddamn rocker, agreeing to spending one minute and then declining it the next, just an ever deteriorating crazy old man, our own modern day Howard Hughes. Or mad King George. And everybody's gotta dance around him and his irrational flip flops. I'm only mostly kidding.
 

astrozombie

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Were you a big fan of the Steinbrenner Yankees? Getting all the free agents they want is reminding people of that and they're reacting negatively.
Say what you want about Steinbrenner, but he tried. Was I pissed that every FA always seemed to choose NY for a time? Yes. Did I laugh when some of those acquisitions failed to work? Yes. But honestly, I was more mad that Steinbrenner did what he needed to (money, trading prospects, whatever) to get the guys he needed to field the best team he could, consistently. He leveraged his resources - money, the appeal of NY, the appeal of the Yankees organization, whatever - in such a way that I can be upset that he had those advantages, but not upset that he used them. Furthermore, that highlights the... quirkiness, to be euphemistic, of the Sox, the third most valuable team in the league apparently having money problems. If Steinbrenner ran the Sox, in 2019 he would have kept everyone (except Price, who he would have banished to the As or something on principle) and re-loaded. The results were not always there, but I don't see how anyone can be mad at Steinbrenner for trying year in and year out to put the absolute best team on the field that he could.
 

YTF

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Per the Dodgers, I view it as more of a systemic issue than a Dodgers issues. Few teams have the ability to spend at that level. They can and they are. Outside of starting pitching, they were already in pretty good position concerning personnel and if the Sox were in the same position I think it's safe to say that we would want them by all means to GFIN.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Along with a hard salary cap, how about a ticket price cap? Give the game back to the fans...
Different conversation but yeah.
The players deserve a significant portion of revenue.... I don't begrudge at all, the workers from taking a certain ratio of profits but it'd be nice if ticket prices and concessions weren't stupid.
I do want there to be a hard salary cap without any of the deferrals not being counted towards the AAV while the player isn't under contract any longer.
 

8slim

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Thanks for your responses and thoughts. Part of my thinking also includes the fact that Kluber started nine games from the opener to the end of May with a 6.26 ERA over 41.2 IP so it seems that subtraction of Sale and Paxton shouldn't be the only considerations here.
That’s fair.

I recall that last season people felt good about 3-4 guys we had in AAA if we needed them to be stop gap starters. And IIRC they all flopped, either at AAA or when they got their shot with the big club.

I’ll admit that I have no clue about our SP depth in Worcester heading into this season. So maybe if it’s decent we’ll be better able to withstand injuries.
 

BigSoxFan

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Per the Dodgers, I view it as more of a systemic issue than a Dodgers issues. Few teams have the ability to spend at that level. They can and they are. Outside of starting pitching, they were already in pretty good position concerning personnel and if the Sox were in the same position I think it's safe to say that we would want them by all means to GFIN.
Yeah, I understand where CR67 is coming from. It’s generally not good for the game when all this top talent is concentrated on one team and the economics of the game absolutely are gross. If anything, the potential greatness of Yamamoto almost gets diluted a bit sharing the spotlight with Ohtani. Imagine the 2 of them facing off in 2025 postseason instead of being Games 1 and 2.

But, this is the system the players and owners signed up for so nothing we can really do.

To answer the above question, I would have zero problems if the Sox owners operated like Steinbrenner from the 2000s. It didn’t work out for them with respect to a title but they were always good and always adding stars to their team. That, to me, is fun as a fan.
 

8slim

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I would, though I'd hate it less, ;). Everyone's a hypocrite sometimes.

Seriously, if I start following minor league/Cape League ball exclusively it won't be because the Sox don't spend enough, it will be because I'm sickened by the whole ridiculous goddamn set up.
------------
"How can anyone be grossed out by what the Dodgers are doing?"
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I hate the fucking rules, hate the economics, and understand I'm an outlier. Not expecting a lot of agreement, and that's fine. Not the thread to unpack all that, but maybe I'll start one sometime soon. And I don't mind being challenged, it's just a strongly held opinion. Here's just not the place to go too deep.

Also, I did agree that "overkill" may be a better word here, but semantics aside, I'm being entirely honest with my thoughts here.
FWIW, I don’t think you’re an outlier. Maybe on SoSH you are. But in the gen pop I hear constant complaints about payrolls and athlete salaries. (And very little about owner’s profits, which is confounding and a real sign o’ the times).

Personally I think the NFL model works best, since it pools most media money and it’s cap makes the financial differences that impact player acquisition between LA and Green Bay pretty negligible.

But as soon as we introduce local media deals to the mix it’s impossible for MLB to achieve that kind of parity.
 

CR67dream

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I'm not a fan of any iteration of Yankees.

I'm confused as to how Red Sox fans point the finger here, since we were the beneficiaries of a top-3 (and sometimes top-1) payroll for the better part of twenty years. Now that we're all Burlington Coat Factory, spending is bad? Am I reading that right?
Speaking for myself, working within the system is always necessary. That's why I agreed that "greed" was the wrong word, and agreed on "overkill" as far as what the Dodgers are doing. And that was partly an emotional response in the context of them signing Paxton. I didn't mean to create this sidetrack, that's my bad.

At the end of the day I just think the system needs a major, major overhaul, but I don't have the energy or inclination to go there now, and I've sidetracked this thread enough already.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Here are the highest payrolls in MLB for 2018, did you have a bad taste in your mouth that year? (rhetorical question)

  1. Red Sox: $239 million
  2. Nationals: $205 million
  3. Giants: $196 million
  4. Dodgers: $195 million
  5. Cubs: $193 million
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2018/12/17/final-mlb-payrolls-for-all-30-teams-show-second-largest-decline-since-2004/?sh=35beaa6de474
Like I said in my post that I think you must have read, steaming rolling the regular season and winning through the playoffs is still fun regardless of the cost. And yeah... I still don't like that super high payroll does tend to equal winning. So while I loved 2018, yes... yes it did leave a bad taste in my mouth. I'm curious what the cost for the actual product on the field was for 2018 though.... IINM, the Sox were still paying for Pablo, Pedroia and Hanley even.
 

astrozombie

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Sep 12, 2022
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Different conversation but yeah.
The players deserve a significant portion of revenue.... I don't begrudge at all, the workers from taking a certain ratio of profits but it'd be nice if ticket prices and concessions weren't stupid.
I do want there to be a hard salary cap without any of the deferrals not being counted towards the AAV while the player isn't under contract any longer.
Can you clarify the bold? Just a bit confused on the wording, but I think you are saying that deferrals should be accelerated to count while the player is playing. I know the NHL had a similar issue awhile back where players on the wrong side of 30 would sign 12 year contracts, knowing that they weren't going to be playing those last few years but it allowed management to smooth out the cap hit at the cost of some dead money in years where those players were going to be sitting home. The NHL ended up doing away with those types of contracts though.
As for deferrals - I think they are fine. If the Dodgers want to pay Ohtani a ton of money in the future and have it count towards the CBT in those years, that's up to them. The Price/Sale/Pedroia contracts were still on the Sox book contributing to their top 3 payroll the last few years. If that's what it takes to get a deal done, I don't see why that is an issue.
 

Jimbodandy

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Speaking for myself, working within the system is always necessary. That's why I agreed that "greed" was the wrong word, and agreed on "overkill" as far as what the Dodgers are doing. And that was partly an emotional response in the context of them signing Paxton. I didn't mean to create this sidetrack, that's my bad.

At the end of the day I just think the system needs a major, major overhaul, but I don't have the energy or inclination to go there now, and I've sidetracked this thread enough already.
FWIW I don't think that it's a hijack. It's an understandable reaction to be stunned by what the Dodgers are doing. It's unusual for one team to shoot the moon in this way.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Yeah, honestly something really strange is going on inside the Boston Red Sox organization. First, we were in on the top FA arms. Then we weren't - it was the next tier dudes the team could "afford." So, we got one (though maybe Giolito is actually tier 3 rather than tier 2), with the suggestion more was on the way - a tier 2 guy (Storman)? - nope. Another tier 3 guy (Paxton)?, nope. A trade using some of our redundancies? Nope. Then we'd get a RHH power bat (Teoscar, Soler). Nope, not that either, without moving some contracts, which hasn't happened.

Breslow and Werner said initially, no financial restraints. Then Kennedy says later, payroll will drop this year. That is a massive public 180 and suggests things are really confused inside that organization.

I mean - what the hell is going on???

My latest conspiracy-minded theory is not some financial scheme, but the John Henry is falling off his goddamn rocker, agreeing to spending one minute and then declining it the next, just an ever deteriorating crazy old man, our own modern day Howard Hughes. Or mad King George. And everybody's gotta dance around him and his irrational flip flops. I'm only mostly kidding.
Honestly, I don't think it's THAT hard to see what could very possibly be happening.

As to the "limitations", or lack thereof, I'd bet FSG told Breslow what they probably told DDski, and Bloom, and Breslow (and anyone else interviewing). Your annual budget is the same that it's always been, roughly $LTT. We'll greenlight going over, but your job is on the line with those kind of calls (based on results).

Breslow wanted to add two SPs, but thought that guys in the system might be valuable (FanGraphs thinks so) but outside of MAT, they're really nothing special and there is no pitching equivalent to Nick Yorke or whatever to add with him and get a pitcher. So that had to be crossed off.

*The mid tier's perplex me as well. I understand that they were waiting on Yamamoto, I've always said I thought that was a bad choice because there was no reason other than wishcasting to assume he'd come to Boston. But they made that call. I disagreed with it then, I disagreed with it after YY and I continue to disagree with it, but it is what it is.*

None of the one year deals matter. The team isn't good enough and wasn't going to be good enough with all those things falling through.

Hopefully now he actually does what should have been done a lot. Tear it down in terms of anyone and anything that won't be here in 2025+ (Jansen, Martin, if not extended Pivetta) and then sell all the other one years at the deadline.

It's not popular, but it's what should have been done in 2022 and 2023 and wasn't so finally someone is doing what should have done then, now. Hopefully now it will be. (If they reverse course and go sign Lorenzen, Soler and Ryu or some such, I'd agree with the "WTF" mindset).


Not worthy of it's own post, but I see no problem with what the Dodgers are doing. It's within the rules, and they're playing by them. The Sox manipulated the AAV mechanisms with extensions for years, Dodgers are doing something similar with the deferrals. It's extreme, sure, but it's well within the rules. Plus, they haven't won a "real" title in what, like 40 years, so I also get their desperation in that sense.
 
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soxhop411

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I am not speaking for @CR67dream, but what dodgers are doing wrt the batshit insane deferrals, is what annoys me. Not even the Yankees during the Steinbrenner years, had players take deferrals to the extent that Dodgers have done in one damn offseason..

And I feel like its because of those deferrals that they have been able to have the type of offseason they have had this year...
 

Yaz4Ever

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My .02 - when the Dodgers don't win a WS in the next 2 years, those contracts are going to get a second look from management and players are going to get moved. The deferrals, imho, will come back to bite them in the ass down the road.

They're obviously all in right now, but the largest payroll doesn't necessarily equate to the largest success. Assuming the Sox aren't in the run, I'd prefer to see a small market David taken down the NYY/LAD/NYM Goliath 100 out of 100 times. I imagine almost everyone on this board agrees with that.
 

TomRicardo

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That's not at all what I'm doing at all, didn't mean it to come off that way, and as I said I'm not going to go deep here .There are a few levels to my thoughts, but begrudging the players isn't part of it. And as I said, I know I'm an outlier. I concede again that I should have used a word like "overkill" rather than "greed" initially, but it doesn't materially change the way I feel about the big picture.

And to tell you the truth, I'm just not inclined to argue too much about it, because by no means am I asking people to think the way I do. I'm fine if people think I'm out to lunch on this one. And maybe I am, it would be far from the first time, but I can only be me.
I am sorry I was joking a bit there, I meant to add a picture of Lenin or a video of Soviet National Anthem. Tone and the internet.

Edit - Any chance I can use Marxist views to defend the side of multimillionaires I am on it.
 

Auger34

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We had been told over and over again they have to add starting pitching. Kennedy, Breslow, Cora. Over and over and over again.
This is where I am.

Maybe the staff outperforms expectations. I like the Giolito signing, especially when you listen to his interview where he talks about how he was getting juiced up even listening to Bailey/Breslow talking about what they want to do to fix him.

But, it's really hard to look at this staff right now and make any sort of bet that they are going to be better than last year or close to good. All we have to do is look at the statements of everyone involved with the Red Sox as the offseason started.
 

astrozombie

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I am not speaking for @CR67dream, but what dodgers are doing wrt the batshit insane deferrals, is what annoys me. Not even the Yankees during the Steinbrenner years, had players take deferrals to the extent that Dodgers have done in one damn offseason..

And I feel like its because of those deferrals that they have been able to have the type of offseason they have had this year...
Out of curiosity - why don't you like the deferrals? Are you going to have the same view in 2034 when 39 year old Ohtani and 35 year old YY are collectively counting $98 mil towards the Dodgers CBT calculation? The Dodgers are willing to take a hit in the future for success now and I honestly don't see a problem with it. Again, this is something that is perfectly fine for the Sox (or anyone) to do, they just choose not to.

ETA: you can ignore the YY bit, I don't think he deferred much. Instead, Ohtani is counting $70 mil that year and he'll be 39, i.e. probably not as effective and not worth $70 mil if hes even playing.
 

themactavish

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Two seemingly contrary reactions can be psychologically compatible. A Sox fan can react to the Dodgers strategy with the big deferrals by thinking it feels a bit out of bounds, something at least with the scent of not playing fairly, but had the Sox engaged in the same business to sign a bunch of great players with huge deferrals, that same fan might think, "Brilliant! We're so smart. All those other losers just weren't clever enough to do think of this strategy."
 

CR67dream

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FWIW I don't think that it's a hijack. It's an understandable reaction to be stunned by what the Dodgers are doing. It's unusual for one team to shoot the moon in this way.
Yeah, what killed me was that I think without the Dodgers swooping in, there's a great chance he comes back at a reasonable price. Once he had that offer, I don't blame the guy a bit. Good for him, he already came back and gave us his all on the cheap last year when he didn't have to.

My reaction to him signing with any other team would have been a lot different in regards to how I feel about the Sox willingness to pony up. And I have never, ever seen anything like what the Dodgers are doing. If I were a fan I don't know if I'd be psyched (okay I would at least a little ;)) or terrified they could be the next 2023 Mets. I'm thinking a good, anxious uncomfortable mix of both. Maybe now the fans will stay after the 7th...

I hope Dave Roberts has a lorazepam prescription.

Edited for clarity
 
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Petagine in a Bottle

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I think it’s quite possible or likely that the FO thought they could trade guys like Duran for a young and cost controlled SP, could dump Jansen / Martin to clear some payroll, which could be used on a bat to replace Duran. They haven’t been able to do any of these things which has made it impossible to do the other things.
 

Auger34

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Yeah, what killed me was that I think without the Dodgers swooping in, there's a great chance he comes back at a reasonable price. Once he had that offer, I don't blame the guy a bit. Good for him, he already came back and gave us is his all on the cheap last year when he didn't have to.

My reaction to him signing with any other team would have been a lot different in regards to how I feel about the Sox willingness to pony up. And I have never, ever seen anything like what the Dodgers are doing. If I were a fan I don't know if I'd be psyched (okay I would at least a little) or terrified they could be the next 2023 Mets. I hope Dave Roberts has a lorazepam prescription.
Rob Bradford tweeted out this morning that Paxton really valued staying on the West Coast. It seems like he was waiting for one of those teams (Seattle, LA) to step up and make a comparable offer to the Sox
 

joe dokes

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One thing about Giolito and Pivetta is that they are dependably healthy, which lessens the need for Pete Gray, Venus DeMilo and Dave Dravecky to take the mound 25 times.
It's the Cabrera-Nomar switch. At least they knew Cabrera could play every day.
Necessary, IMO, though probably not sufficient, in and of itself.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I think it’s quite possible or likely that the FO thought they could trade guys like Duran for a young and cost controlled SP, could dump Jansen / Martin to clear some payroll, which could be used on a bat to replace Duran. They haven’t been able to do any of these things which has made it impossible to do the other things.
On the first part, agree totally. I don't blame them for thinking it, even though I haven't thought it for some time. (Though I clearly admit this is my bias toward the farm system, I'm not saying they should have thought like I do, to be clear). Unfortunately, a heck of a lot of the teams in baseball have high upside middle infielders and outfielders and very little of baseball has cost controlled starting pitching to deal.

As to the second, I agree that Jansen and Martin would have virtually no value if the Red Sox didn't want to pay their salaries. I think they'd have considerable value if the Sox paid their entire contract (and hope this is what happens). Oh, to be clear, "considerable value" means in terms of finding pitching prospects / maybe someone else version of "Tanner Houck", in no way, shape or form am I trying to imply those guys could get a Luzardo type. I just want to make sure I state that.
 

ehaz

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I think the most surprising signing of the off season is Andrew Bailey. What did he see that brought him here?
Bailey and Breslow are legitimately best friends. Like brothers. This isn’t hard to understand.
Bailey said he reached out to O'Halloran right after the season and weeks before Breslow was hired. He was leaving SF regardless because his young family lives in Connecticut.
 

GB5

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The Sox aren’t competing this year. As such does a pillow contract for Woodruff make sense. How much upside does he have? Is a 2/20 deal fair? Rehab this year at about 7.5 and 12.5 for next year?
 

ehaz

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On the first part, agree totally. I don't blame them for thinking it, even though I haven't thought it for some time. (Though I clearly admit this is my bias toward the farm system, I'm not saying they should have thought like I do, to be clear). Unfortunately, a heck of a lot of the teams in baseball have high upside middle infielders and outfielders and very little of baseball has cost controlled starting pitching to deal.

As to the second, I agree that Jansen and Martin would have virtually no value if the Red Sox didn't want to pay their salaries. I think they'd have considerable value if the Sox paid their entire contract (and hope this is what happens). Oh, to be clear, "considerable value" means in terms of finding pitching prospects / maybe someone else version of "Tanner Houck", in no way, shape or form am I trying to imply those guys could get a Luzardo type. I just want to make sure I state that.
Yep look at the recent Michael Busch trade. Cubs acquired a major league ready, consensus top 50 prospect and all it cost them was an upside 19 year old A ball pitcher.
 

simplicio

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The Sox aren’t competing this year. As such does a pillow contract for Woodruff make sense. How much upside does he have? Is a 2/20 deal fair? Rehab this year at about 7.5 and 12.5 for next year?
Woodruff has a capsule tear in his shoulder and I wouldn't flush money down the drain in the hope that he recovers. The odds are not with him.
 

jon abbey

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Yep look at the recent Michael Busch trade. Cubs acquired a major league ready, consensus top 50 prospect and all it cost them was an upside 19 year old A ball pitcher.
That was a 40 man space thing though more than anything, NYY made a trade with LAD to clear 40 man space for them earlier and they got a lefty MLB reliever and a AAA SS for a AA SS (who did not need a 40 man spot).
 

SouthernBoSox

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Yep look at the recent Michael Busch trade. Cubs acquired a major league ready, consensus top 50 prospect and all it cost them was an upside 19 year old A ball pitcher.
There were 40 man implications with this trade as well.
 

CR67dream

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I am sorry I was joking a bit there, I meant to add a picture of Lenin or a video of Soviet National Anthem. Tone and the internet.

Edit - Any chance I can use Marxist views to defend the side of multimillionaires I am on it.
Ha, thanks for clarifying, but you were perfectly fair given what I gave you to work with regardless. If anything I want players to make more across the board and the fans to get a break, but I'll put the pipe down now. :) ;)
 

TomRicardo

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The Sox aren’t competing this year. As such does a pillow contract for Woodruff make sense. How much upside does he have? Is a 2/20 deal fair? Rehab this year at about 7.5 and 12.5 for next year?
Woodruff is probably waiting to see Montgomery and Snell lands to see if he wants to grab some guarantee now if it is available. That said grabbing him for a multi year with an option if you can would be a fabulous deal. 2/20 with an 20 million options and a buyout ~5 million. so 25/2 with an option for 40/3 would be great.

Edit - Forgot he was out for the whole season, had him coming back mid season in my head.
 

HfxBob

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Nov 13, 2005
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Yeah, honestly something really strange is going on inside the Boston Red Sox organization. First, we were in on the top FA arms. Then we weren't - it was the next tier dudes the team could "afford." So, we got one (though maybe Giolito is actually tier 3 rather than tier 2), with the suggestion more was on the way - a tier 2 guy (Storman)? - nope. Another tier 3 guy (Paxton)?, nope. A trade using some of our redundancies? Nope. Then we'd get a RHH power bat (Teoscar, Soler). Nope, not that either, without moving some contracts, which hasn't happened.

Breslow and Werner said initially, no financial restraints. Then Kennedy says later, payroll will drop this year. That is a massive public 180 and suggests things are really confused inside that organization.

I mean - what the hell is going on???
There's even more to add to the confusion, when you consider that Werner also said the following this weekend:

In the end, we don’t have a line in terms of our payroll that we look at as much as trusting that Craig [Breslow] is going to deliver on his assurance that we’re going to be competitive.
 

NickEsasky

Please Hammer, Don't Hurt 'Em
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Jul 24, 2001
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The Sox aren’t competing this year. As such does a pillow contract for Woodruff make sense. How much upside does he have? Is a 2/20 deal fair? Rehab this year at about 7.5 and 12.5 for next year?
I have real concerns about Woodruff. Shoulder injuries are not the same as elbow injuries and the track record of success after capsule repair is not very good. Urias is a bit of an exception but he was also a lot younger than Woodruff who will be 31 soon.
 

mikcou

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May 13, 2007
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Giolito is going to be 29 and just put up the worst numbers of his career while changing teams twice within a couple of weeks and going through a divorce (that I have seen reported as ugly). He pitched fine, "well" even, before the first trade. And his underlying numbers were still pretty close to what James Paxton put up in a year that people seem to suddenly be clamoring was really good and a huge upgrade on whatever Giolito could possibly give them.

Paxton is going to be 35, and completely wore down after throwing about 60 innings last year, the most he had thrown since 2019.

I am really not sure where this narrative that Paxton is guaranteed to be better than Giolito in 2024 (or further out) is even coming from.
I'd be a lot more optomistic in Giolito if 2023 was his only bad year. He was also bad in 2022 (even if not quite as homer prone); hes had a history of 350 inning over two years where he was anywhere from bad to terrible including an entire season (2022) when he was not traded at all or in the process of gettting divorced.

His 30%+ K rate that made him a top guy doesnt seem to be coming back (started declining from 32/33% in 2021 to 28% then to 25% in 2022 and 2023) so while he might not be as bad as 2022-2023; expecting him to bounce back to being materially better than league average seems like a huge assumption/quite unlikely.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Dec 7, 2022
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While understanding the 40man implications of the trade (for the Dodgers) I do think it's interesting that Busch still cost that little.

For instance, he's a higher ranked prospect than Nick Yorke (or at least was heading into 2023, I don't believe Busch is still eligible to be ranked), and posted much higher wRC+ scores at the AA level. Of course this was also at different ages due to loss of a minor league season.

The overall point I think is fair, even middle to back end hitters on the of top 100 prospects are not getting anything close to "value" in terms of controllable starting pitching. As to why that is, probably because with so much of baseball following the same strategy of drafting up the middle bats in early rounds (I'm just taking those who have said this at their word here, I haven't done the research myself, I'm assuming they have).

That said, Ferris is a really good pitching prospect. It's the kind of move I'd like to see the Sox make with two of Abreu, Valdez, Yorke, Bleis or Meidroth if at all possible.


Just to add a "rumor"

The Pirates are in agreement with Aroldis Chapman, as first reported by Francys Romero (X link). It’s a one-year, $10.5MM guarantee, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on X).

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/pirates-to-sign-aroldis-chapman.html
 
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chawson

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I'd be a lot more optomistic in Giolito if 2023 was his only bad year. He was also bad in 2022 (even if not quite as homer prone); hes had a history of 350 inning over two years where he was anywhere from bad to terrible including an entire season (2022) when he was not traded at all or in the process of gettting divorced.
Worth noting here that the White Sox had an exceptionally bad defense in 2022, particularly the work of a few lugnuts in the outfield. Giolito's BABIP has always ranged between .255 and .274 over the full seasons of his career, but that year it was way up to .340.
 

HfxBob

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Nov 13, 2005
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Worth noting here that the White Sox had an exceptionally bad defense in 2022, particularly with a few lugnuts in the outfield. Giolito's BABIP has always ranged between .255 and .274 over the full seasons of his career, but that year it was way up to .340.
True, but Giolito also has a career ERA of 4.43 and a career FIP of 4.44, so it would appear defense has been a neutral factor over his career. His FIP with the White Sox in 2023 was, you guessed it...4.43.
 
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