Offseason rumors

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8slim

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Smart trade for the Os.

And yet another example that when someone here posts “what would you do?!” as a response to critiques about player acquisition, it is a perfectly acceptable answer to say that’s our GMs job.

Because GMs working for serious organizations find ways to acquire good players that improve their ball club.
 
BaseballJones

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Rovin Romine said:
I think the trick is upgrading what we have at this point, not finding the perfect complimentary piece. Say, essentially replacing Refsnyder with Duvall or the like. (Duvall can also play 1B, FWIW.) Or hypothetically moving Yoshida which would allow you to take on a similar RHH bat-first player.

I disagree on the shrug though. There's some unanswered questions, but this is a good lineup when viewed through the glass-half-full lense.

Casas and Devers are two top 10 or top 15 hitters.

And while it's cherry picking, first-half Yoshida outhit them both. So that gives you a core of 3, if Yoshida trends upward, which seems reasonable.

The main right handed supplement to that core are O'Neil and Story. Both come with health question marks, but Story in particular seems like a good bet to rebound. Both were all-star types, but a return to just short of that gives you a very long 5 places in the lineup.

The three wild cards are Duran (box o chocolates), Grissom (may have an adjustment period, but a good bet to be good), and Abreu (same.)

Wong will just be Wong.

Our main utility guy may be Rafaela, Reyes, or Gonzlez, with Valdez as a bat first LHH option.

Last year to this year:

C Wong - Wong​
1B Casas* - Casas (but up to speed)​
2B Arroyo - Grissom​
SS Hernández - Story​
3B Devers* - Devers​
LF Yoshida* - Yoshida or Abreu/Refsnyder​
CF Duran* - Duran​
RF Verdugo* - O'Neill​
DH Turner - Yoshida​

I'll rely on someone else to view it through the glass half-empty lense.
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The lineup isn't the problem. They'll score runs. The problem is pitching. They'll give up runs. An awful lot of them.
 
chrisfont9

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
That's how I interpret it. That or the Brewers got really impatient to move Burnes.
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Some of us think the market is trending toward buyers because of all the delay, and this would be evidence of that. Burnes' value at the deadline is probably less, maybe a lot less, so the Brewers make the move now. Now, if nobody else's price comes down then it's not actually a trend, just a panic by Milwaukee, or they really like the prospects. But as I've been saying, the sellers only "hold all the power" if you give in to them. Clock's ticking on both the free agents and the teams with guys approaching their walk year.
 
SouthernBoSox

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Petagine in a Bottle said:
What’s a similar offer from the Sox? They don’t really have a guy like Hall; something like Rafaela and Houck?
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Yea, that’s probably right. Close enough.

Stunningly low return. Again, I’m not sure we didn’t do better with the Sale deal.

Also, like I said earlier. The second tier starting market is like zero right now.

What a weird off season.
 
Hee Sox Choi

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bosox188 said:
Oh, okay so apparently the price for Corbin Burnes was not very high at all. Joey Ortiz is a low power, contact-oriented bat with decent defense. And DL Hall is a major relief risk whose velocity was down most of last season.
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Joey Ortiz is an EXCELLENT defender. BA gave him a 70-grade at SS a few weeks ago. And he’s not a glove-only SS, he’s got a pretty good bat too.
 
bosox188

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Hee Sox Choi said:
Joey Ortiz is an EXCELLENT defender. BA gave him a 70-grade at SS a few weeks ago. And he’s not a glove-only SS, he’s got a pretty good bat too.
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Yea I may have undersold the defense, I was trying to remember how much I heard about his defense last season, and on Fangraphs I saw an FV of 50 for his fielding. But that's almost assuredly out of date.
 
EvilEmpire

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kazuneko said:
Why again did Milwaukee sign Rhys Hoskins? Sounds like they are in sell mode.
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Seems like Milwaukee is in sell mode just like Tampa is always in sell mode. Move assets a year or so out to get assets back that they like. Rinse, repeat. If they do a good job picking the right prospects they'll still be competitive.
 
ehaz

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kazuneko said:
Why again did Milwaukee sign Rhys Hoskins? Sounds like they are in sell mode.
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Weak NL Central and even without Burnes could sneak into the playoffs with 84 wins if things happen like Chourio’s great right away, etc.
 
chawson

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8slim said:
And yet another example that when someone here posts “what would you do?!” as a response to critiques about player acquisition, it is a perfectly acceptable answer to say that’s our GMs job.

Because GMs working for serious organizations find ways to acquire good players that improve their ball club.
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I don’t see that this trade proves that people should be more ignorant on the subject of MLB teams and their rosters.

As others have pointed out, the equivalent package from Boston would have been Houck and Rafaela, plus a competitive balance pick (so let’s say, someone from the Cespedes/Meidroth/Castro/Romero tier, since we don’t have a CBT pick to trade). That seems like it would have matched the O’s offer, not exceeded it. But then again, Rafaela is more of an elite defensive CF, not an MLB-ready elite defensive SS like Ortiz, which it looks like the Brewers were prioritizing (they have a future star CF already). Someone can make a case that Rafaela is as valuable a SS, but it’s pretty widely accepted that his path is via CF.

And then there’s the fact that Burnes is a Boras client, so an extension is likely not in play.

The way I’m seeing it, we can gripe that our GM didn’t make it happen like a smart GM would. Or we can be realistic that this trade would have required A) a package that led with Mayer B) Houck or Crawford, plus Rafaela, plus another #10-15 prospect and possibly a sweetener to get them to prefer Rafaela over Ortiz, and then we’d bid with everyone else to re-sign him or recoup a draft pick.

Breslow said several times that he wasn’t willing to part with a top prospect for a one-year rental. That’s Mayer. I’m glad he didn’t. Unfortunately, we don’t have a surplus of MLB-ready shortstop prospects like the Orioles do.
 
jon abbey

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chawson said:
As others have pointed out, the equivalent package from Boston would have been Houck and Rafaela, plus a competitive balance pick (so let’s say, someone from the Cespedes/Meidroth/Castro/Romero tier, since we don’t have a CBT pick to trade).
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I'd say you literally can't replace the value of a CBT pick, it could change MIL's entire 2024 draft. You could send more value but it would not be in the same timeline.
 
6-5 Sadler

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Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
To the second - I actually answered that in my earlier post. If things that aren’t part of the core from the MLB team (Verdugo, Urias, Sale) can be moved for things that might be (Fitts, Campbell, Grissom) THEN replace them with one year deals that can hopefully be flipped at the deadline (ie O’Neill, Giolito).
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I don’t see the difference in signing a free agent to plug a self-created hole vs. signing one to fill an already existing hole. In both cases, you’re spending money to acquire rentals for a team that you project to stink. I guess you could make the argument that you’re maintaining payroll while adding prospects but at the end of the day, it’s unnecessary spend on a team going nowhere. You could’ve saved $25M more of John Henry’s money by not getting Giolito/O’Neill.
 
P

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scottieo2 said:
I don’t see the difference in signing a free agent to plug a self-created hole vs. signing one to fill an already existing hole. In both cases, you’re spending money to acquire rentals for a team that you project to stink. I guess you could make the argument that you’re maintaining payroll while adding prospects but at the end of the day, it’s unnecessary spend on a team going nowhere. You could’ve saved $25M more of John Henry’s money by not getting Giolito/O’Neill.
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Even though its not a thing in baseball we might as well just tank for draft picks Its the only ogg thing that might come out of the season. Stock up the farm system for a run in two years. Sell anything on major league roster not named Casas or Bello. Prtty poor state of affairs
 
HfxBob

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chawson said:
I don’t see that this trade proves that people should be more ignorant on the subject of MLB teams and their rosters.

As others have pointed out, the equivalent package from Boston would have been Houck and Rafaela, plus a competitive balance pick (so let’s say, someone from the Cespedes/Meidroth/Castro/Romero tier, since we don’t have a CBT pick to trade). That seems like it would have matched the O’s offer, not exceeded it. But then again, Rafaela is more of an elite defensive CF, not an MLB-ready elite defensive SS like Ortiz, which it looks like the Brewers were prioritizing (they have a future star CF already). Someone can make a case that Rafaela is as valuable a SS, but it’s pretty widely accepted that his path is via CF.

And then there’s the fact that Burnes is a Boras client, so an extension is likely not in play.
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We have no idea if that's the case. The Orioles have new ownership, and if they have the will to make a big trade like this right away, they might also be willing to go all-in on that extension offer. Plus we have yet to see how Boras's big four free agents make out before this season starts. I'm sure Burnes will be keeping an eye on that too.
 
HfxBob

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Anybody think the Orioles might also sign Montgomery or Snell now? That would be quite the little instant coup.
 
chawson

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HfxBob said:
We have no idea if that's the case. The Orioles have new ownership, and if they have the will to make a big trade like this right away, they might also be willing to go all-in on that extension offer. Plus we have yet to see how Boras's big four free agents make out before this season starts. I'm sure Burnes will be keeping an eye on that too.
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Everyone has a pretty good idea that that's the case.

Rosenthal/The Athletic:

Represented by Scott Boras, who prefers his clients to establish their value in open bidding, Burnes is almost certain to hit the free-agent market next offseason. The Orioles, under a new ownership group led by billionaire David Rubenstein, might at least stand a chance of retaining him.
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Beomoose

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HfxBob said:
Anybody think the Orioles might also sign Montgomery or Snell now? That would be quite the little instant coup.
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Don't know why they shouldn't try, with LA building a juggernaut anyone thinking about a ring should be trying to build a killer rotation.
 
chawson

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BringBackMo said:
We line up with the Brewers on anything else? Or, perhaps, Bradford isn't being sly there...?
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Didn't think of that angle. I'd think Adames is less attractive to us now that we're all in on Grissom but ? Wouldn't hate a Peralta/Yelich blockbuster.
 
8slim

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chawson said:
I don’t see that this trade proves that people should be more ignorant on the subject of MLB teams and their rosters.

As others have pointed out, the equivalent package from Boston would have been Houck and Rafaela, plus a competitive balance pick (so let’s say, someone from the Cespedes/Meidroth/Castro/Romero tier, since we don’t have a CBT pick to trade). That seems like it would have matched the O’s offer, not exceeded it. But then again, Rafaela is more of an elite defensive CF, not an MLB-ready elite defensive SS like Ortiz, which it looks like the Brewers were prioritizing (they have a future star CF already). Someone can make a case that Rafaela is as valuable a SS, but it’s pretty widely accepted that his path is via CF.

And then there’s the fact that Burnes is a Boras client, so an extension is likely not in play.

The way I’m seeing it, we can gripe that our GM didn’t make it happen like a smart GM would. Or we can be realistic that this trade would have required A) a package that led with Mayer B) Houck or Crawford, plus Rafaela, plus another #10-15 prospect and possibly a sweetener to get them to prefer Rafaela over Ortiz, and then we’d bid with everyone else to re-sign him or recoup a draft pick.

Breslow said several times that he wasn’t willing to part with a top prospect for a one-year rental. That’s Mayer. I’m glad he didn’t. Unfortunately, we don’t have a surplus of MLB-ready shortstop prospects like the Orioles do.
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I’m not griping.

I certainly may have missed posts, but I don’t recall seeing anyone suggest that Burnes was attainable this offseason when we’ve been discussing the need for a high end starter. But clearly he was, for the right price. It’s fine if Breslow didn’t want to pay that price, but that doesn’t mean it was impossible.

Same for the Sale/Grissom deal. I don’t recall anyone suggesting that prior to it happening. And yet it did.

So I’m going to keep challenging the notion that *we* must provide specific transactions. Because we don’t know who’s truly available and who is not. But GMs know. Or at least they’re paid to know.
 
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