2023-2024 General NBA Season Thread
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
It's easy to miss it with the bad Knicks injury news, the Bucks losing over and over again to lottery teams and most of the conference being pretty meh, but the Cavs are now 3-7 over their last 10, the worst record over that stretch of any team in the top 11 in either conference. And they've been healthy, or at least for the last few games. Forget the two seed, they're just a half game up
It's been a banner year for the 30+ superstars in terms of availability. Over the last 3 years, Curry/James/Kawhi/AD/Durant missing an average of 31 games, per player, per year. This season, those five have missed a combined 37 games total. Unreal.
65-85% of the credit for that goes to luck, but for the remainder, I think the league's new awards and national TV policies have made a real difference.
Mostly in the way those policies have set the tone.
Not long ago, I was told by some here that they were scary.
They weren't and they aren't.
Mitchell is still working his way back, but he hasn't been close to the game guy. Shooting just .345 overall and .241 from 3 in the 4 games he's played. We'll see if he improves but if not, they're going down in the first round.
Edit: they're 11-16 in their last 27
A few huge seeding games today:
Cavs @ Clips
Heat @ Pacers
Pels @ Suns
Knicks @ Bucks
Wolves @ Lakers
"Scary" is different than "might actually be the second best team in the East". The latter may be true, because all the other teams here have warts (SRS likes the Knicks better though). If they end up the 3 seed, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them in the ECF. They don't have to be better than the Celtics to justify our respect, just better than the Bucks and Knicks.
I respect them as I respect all teams in the playoffs. But I don't now, or never have found them to be scary.
And Mitchell already doesn't have a great history of lifting his teams in the playoffs. Cavs fans I know lamented this from the day the team traded for him.
MIA @ IND at 5pm, Embiid out for injury management @SA tonight. Regular season ends next Sunday.
The Cavs just put up 80 points in the first half of the 2nd game of B2B at the LA Clippers.
The LAC defense is somewhere between non-interested and horrible!
The LAC defense is somewhere between non-interested and horrible!
It was a full two months ago now that they briefly got to 1st place in the west, and were everyone's trendy non-Boston/Denver title pick. Since then, they're 15-13 entering today.
And the Cavs are without Mitchell. He and Garland just don't seem to work that great together, seems like a lock to break that duo up this summer (absent a deep playoff run).
And now the Cavs have scored only 20 points in 14+ minutes in the 2nd half and it's a 3 point game...
Nothing to see here, just a full strength heat team (including Herro) losing to the Pacers (without Haliburton), a game they really needed to have if they want to avoid the play in. I'm sure they'll be rounding into form any day now.
Ah sorry, quick glance at the box score and I missed him, probably because he was as invisible as he's been for months (12 points on 3-10 shooting). Still, this Heat team really doesn't look like one that's about to explode into a long playoff run.
There was also 2021, where they were meh all year, everyone kept waiting for them to hit the gas, and they got swept in the 1st round.
Last year was nice for Miami, but it was last year. Let's see what happens.
Generally no, but there were some signs in retrospect. They were 2nd in crunch time net rating last year in the regular season, they're 27th this year.
I've long been of the view that the Heat's run to the finals last year was pretty fluky (Giannis broke his back and Jimmy had his best series as a pro in round 1, then Boston went ice cold from 3 and Tatum sprained his ankle while Miami got red hot from 3 and barely survived an historic collapse), they just aren't that good. They've got perhaps the best coach in the league, one of the best clutch players in the league, and just enough 3 point shooting to look better than they are from time to time. I'm really glad they didn't get Lillard, even considering his struggles this year.
*edit - we have decades of evidence that while some teams do flip the switch, going deep into the playoffs after a bottom of the bracket regular season (especially one in which you can't really blame injuries for their struggles) is incredibly rare. Especially from teams that haven't actually won a title. "They did it once, last year" in the face of all the evidence since then really doesn't do it for me.
To be clear I think they’re going to lose easily in the first round if they even get there. But who knows.
Bucks, playing everyone, have blown an 11 point lead at home to the Knicks and now trail. Damn bus drivers.
Sure, but where's the fun in that?
I will say this - if the Heat face anyone other than Boston in round 1, they could make a run only because the rest of the East isn't scary at all. They're only 4 losses behind Milwaukee and 2-3 losses behind Orlando/Cleveland/NYK, that's barely even an upset if they win. I suspect Miami might even be favored in a playoff series against anyone other than Milwaukee and Boston.
One positive thing I'll say about Miami, Rozier has been unconscious from 3 lately. 28-49 from 3 over the last 5 games entering today (.571). I'm still highly skeptical that a Rozier/Herro backcourt can hold up defensively, and then imagine Duncan Robinson on the floor at the same time...yuck.
I will say this - if the Heat face anyone other than Boston in round 1, they could make a run only because the rest of the East isn't scary at all. They're only 4 losses behind Milwaukee and 2-3 losses behind Orlando/Cleveland/NYK, that's barely even an upset if they win. I suspect Miami might even be favored in a playoff series against anyone other than Milwaukee and Boston.
One positive thing I'll say about Miami, Rozier has been unconscious from 3 lately. 28-49 from 3 over the last 5 games entering today (.571). I'm still highly skeptical that a Rozier/Herro backcourt can hold up defensively, and then imagine Duncan Robinson on the floor at the same time...yuck.
This Sixers @ Spurs game is kinda fun. Nickles ran a great play for Maxey who got a layup to tie the game and send it into OT.
Minnesota putting the Lakers to the sword here. Lebron out with flu symptoms and Davis left in the 2Q after being raked across the eyes by Kyle Anderson.
It really does. I believe if the Warriors technically control their own destiny vs LA now. If they win out (and the Lakers win their other two games), they would finish with the same record and be 2-2 against each other, but the Warriors would have the better record in their division, putting them ahead.
I'm not sure it matters that much, to be honest. The big prize is getting to 8th or better, not playing at home in the first do or die game.
6th-8th seed breakdown:
Pacers: 45-34; finish @ TOR, @ CLE, vs ATL. The CLE game is a swing game, but they should win at least 2, maybe 3.
Sixers: 44-35; finish vs DET, vs ORL, vs BRK. No back to backs, so Embiid should play all 3. They should win at least 2, maybe 3.
Heat: 43-35; finish @ ATL, vs. DAL (B2B), vs TOR, vs TOR. The ATL game is huge. Win that and they could get to 46 wins.
How do the tiebreaks work for these seeds? And who has the advantage in the tiebreaks?
Pacers: 45-34; finish @ TOR, @ CLE, vs ATL. The CLE game is a swing game, but they should win at least 2, maybe 3.
Sixers: 44-35; finish vs DET, vs ORL, vs BRK. No back to backs, so Embiid should play all 3. They should win at least 2, maybe 3.
Heat: 43-35; finish @ ATL, vs. DAL (B2B), vs TOR, vs TOR. The ATL game is huge. Win that and they could get to 46 wins.
How do the tiebreaks work for these seeds? And who has the advantage in the tiebreaks?
Weirdly, the Ws are 15-3 in their last 18 road games and 23-15 overall (better than the Nuggets, e.g.) Yet a desultory 20-19 at home. The Lakers have a more normal split: 28-13 home, 17-21 road.
Generally, I don't put a lot of stock in anomalous home-road splits — for prediction purposes think it's better to just apply a standard home-road split to all games (except in odd cases like Denver with the thin air). Countless pundits spent countless hours last season refusing to accept that the Warriors' anomalous home-road splits (33-8, 11-30) were just random variance; and lo, this season it flips around completely and it's "never mind..."
Anyway, yes, if it comes to it, I'd rather play the #9-10 in SF. But I don't think it's a huge difference.
For one game, I don't know that it's the biggest deal for two veteran teams. The Warriors are 23-16 on the road this year, but they were 11-30 last year, despite a very similar overall record. What do we take from that? No clue.
H2H won loss record is the first tiebreaker between 3 or more teams that have the same record when no one is winning their division:
Pacers: 4-2
Sixers: 2-4
Heat: 3-3
Suffice to say, yesterday's Indy win was huge. Playoffstatus gives the Pacers a 24% chance of finishing 7th/8th, the Sixers a 75% chance, and the Heat an 84% chance. Indy could still finish anywhere from 2nd to 8th (as could Cleveland, Orlando and New York), to show just how bunched up the middle of the East has gotten.
Thanks. Is it also H2H for 2 teams? Say if the Pacers finish with 35 losses, and the Sixers and Heat finish with 36?
It is. Miami and Philly are 2-2 agains teach other, so it goes to conference record, where Miami has a 1 game lead. After that, we're pretty deep in the weeds. Record against playoff teams from your own conference, I believe.
I’d say the prize is avoiding NO in the playin. Hosting the Kings, while anything can happen in one game, is as close as a bye as you’ll see at this level without Monk or Huerter.
Don’t look now but for all the mocking of the Mavericks roster construction and bringing in Kyrie….Dallas has won 14 of 16 as the role players are fitting in perfectly around Luka and Kyrie. Their two-headed big of Lively Danny is the best way to describe it and it’s been a super productive position. Don’t sleep on this team come playoff time is all I’m saying.
The betting market is. They are the 6th favorite to come out of the WC. Luka is making an MVP push for any voters who don’t want to click Jokic again.