2024 Playoffs Eastern Conference First Round: (2) New York Knicks vs (7) Philadelphia 76ers - The Danse Macabre

TomRicardo

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I enjoy shitting on Embiid as much as the next guy, but he's the only reason the Sixers are in thus. The rest of the roster sucks, and Maxey just isn't capable of keeping bench units afloat.

The real casualty here is the "the Sixers were 31-8 with Embiid healthy!! Their roster is good actually!!" narrative. It's just not nearly good enough.

Maybe renouncing everybody to sign a star fixes that, but I'm skeptical.
The issue is there are only two stars that might be available. Both are very pro living in LA, are old, and probably wouldn't get the 76ers over the hump.

I am not sure why OG would leave New York, Pascal is pretty sure he is staying Indiana, and I don't think Harden is signing up for a second tour of duty. So you are left with DeRozan and Bridges as upgrade alternatives to Tobias Harris?
 

HomeRunBaker

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I think talking about the 50 point game is missing the mark. Arod had a pretty good game 1-3 of the 04 ALCS too. If you want to be free from criticism, you need to show up every game and have a level of consistency. Embiid has high highs and low lows. When those lows happen matters a lot
How high is your bar for Embiid if you call his performance in some games of this series as low lows? Aside from G1 and the 4Q of G4 when Nurse decided not to give him a 2-3 min blow around the 4Q intermission Embiid has carried this team to being competitive.

They've lost the other 3 games though, and he's been more "acceptable" than great in any of them. He's averaged under 39% shooting in those 3 losses. If you lose more times than you win, and you play just "ok" in losses, you lose the series and it's hard to argue you had a good one.
We’re using FG% to determine effectiveness now? In one loss when he shot 7-19 he also went to the line 14x, had 6 assists and forced double and triple teams constantly that created open 3’s that his teammates consistently missed. He was pretty dominant for the first 3Q of that game not just “ok.”
 
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TomRicardo

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Isn’t DeRozan an all-NBA level talent?
DeRozan definitely got votes. All joking aside, Embiid plus Maxey gets you what? ~50-53 wins with better Embiid health. Tobias Harris was still a 6 WAR player. If you go get another star you are dumping him plus either Melton and/or Batum plus every player besides Reed who is playable in a playoff rotation and you will almost no cap room to rebuild minus TPE.

On paper you have all the cap room in the world but in reality, you are going to have to give Maxey a rookie max. You can delay Maxey's contract to give yourself an extra 22 million in cap, but there just isn't a lot of max level free agents. If you grab George, LeBron, or DeRozan you then only have 22 million left to build your entire roster. Maybe instead you grab Bridges and Monk, and keep some guys. I am not sure where you go. If they had any trade assets left you could go after Brandon Ingram unless New Orleans is somehow interested in the Clippers 2028 unprotected with some 76ers picks wrapped in.
 

jon abbey

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Bogdanovic was already playing through an injury that he planned to get operated on after the season so my guess is with this second injury, they just decided to get them both done now.

NY is dangerously thin now, 7 rotation players plus Mitchell Robinson (possibly still out). Next up are guys like Alec Burks and Shake Milton, but more likely Thibs will play just 7 guys (or 8 if he has Robinson). The problem will be getting enough offense out of them, Deuce McBride is even more important now than he was before.
 

jon abbey

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Well, if they win anything this year, it won't have been because of the trade deadline moves.
Well, the earlier trade has been pretty crucial, it just didn't happen at the deadline.

FWIW I thought at the time that the DET Bogdanovic/Burks trade wasn't especially likely to help them much this year. I think they did it mostly because they need a big contract to include in a deal for a star this summer and they couldn't keep Fournier any longer without playing him (literally they could have but it was getting to be an ugly situation). So the main purpose of that trade was Bogdanovic's contract, and if it helped them on the court, all the better.
 

jarules1185

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We’re using FG% to determine effectiveness now? In one loss when he shot 7-19 he also went to the line 14x, had 6 assists and forced double and triple teams constantly that created open 3’s that his teammates consistently missed. He was pretty dominant for the first 3Q of that game not just “ok.”
It's not batting average, FG% remains important. If you want to go by game score (since we're evaluating individual games), he averaged a game score of 23 in those 3 losses, whereas in his amazing regular season prior to his injury he averaged about 31. Certainly still good, just clearly below his MVP-level standard - if you want to dispute the relative meaning of "ok" for Joel Embiid, sure, it's subjective.

Nobody is saying he's not important to his team, he's clearly critical, but in those losses that was more an indictment of his team than it was because he played amazing for him.

If he has another similar game and they lose, then it's a disappointing series.
 
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lovegtm

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It's not batting average, FG% remains important. If you want to go by game score (since we're evaluating individual games), he averaged a game score of 23 in those 3 losses, whereas in his amazing regular season prior to his injury he averaged about 31. Certainly still good, just clearly below his MVP-level standard - if you want to dispute the relative meaning of "ok" for Joel Embiid, sure, it's subjective.

Nobody is saying he's not important to his team, he's clearly critical, but in those losses that was more an indictment of his team than it was because he played amazing for him.

If he has another similar game and they lose, then it's a disappointing series.
FG% is a lot less important when the other factors that HRB mentions are in place. If anything, it's worse than batting average given the rest of the context.
 

jarules1185

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FG% is a lot less important when the other factors that HRB mentions are in place. If anything, it's worse than batting average given the rest of the context.
I guess you can debate the relative importance of FG% compared to batting average since it's apples and oranges anyway, but that's why I included Game Score in my post above - it takes into account plenty of other factors. It's not an advanced stat as it's basically an arbitrary counting stat summation, but advanced stats are only so meaningful on such a small sample size to begin with.
 

Cellar-Door

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Philly looking strong early once again. Can they actually close it out for once?
They have the same problem as the Lakers... huge part of their approach on both ends relies on guys who just may not be physically capable of sustaining the full game. Now... NYK are not the Nuggets, but on the other hand Tyrese Maxey at his best isn't all that close to AD at his best.
 

Cellar-Door

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Knicks made the expected run with Embiid out, but thne he came back and they got run for another 7-0 (and it should have been worse but NYK can't hit their FTs)
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Embiid goes to the hoop wildly and elbows his defender in the chin, gets called for the offensive foul, protests until Philly challenges, call is upheld. Not a great sequence there for him.
 

TomRicardo

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Embiid goes to the hoop wildly and elbows his defender in the chin, gets called for the offensive foul, protests until Philly challenges, call is upheld. Not a great sequence there for him.
Embiid is not built for this. He is an amazing basketball player but as the pressure mounts he gets away from his game. I don't get why he keeps fucking around in no man's zone instead of staying at the top of the key or keeping wide at the elbow. When he is stuck in the muck, he gets trapped, can't move the ball, and can't cut. Trying to muscle Hartenstein or Robinson 20 ft from the hoop is dumb.

edit - and like they he moves out and Philadelphia starts scoring. Does he zone out Nick Nurse?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Kyle Lowry has five fouls with three minutes left in the third but if you actually awarded earned fouls he would have been in the locker room way back in 2019.
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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I would love to see Philly extend this, but I just don't know that they have any offense once Embiid does his second-half fade. Some combination of Maxey and Oubre and Tobias have to put in their best games of the series

If Maxey was really a max player he wouldn't get so completely stuffed going to the hoop by guys like Donte DiVincenzo.

Once you get past Brunson playing Superman, who among the healthy Knicks is going to score on Boston's defense?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I would love to see Philly extend this, but I just don't know that they have any offense once Embiid does his second-half fade. Some combination of Maxey and Oubre and Tobias have to put in their best games of the series

If Maxey was really a max player he wouldn't get so completely stuffed going to the hoop by guys like Donte DiVincenzo.

Once you get past Brunson playing Superman, who among the healthy Knicks is going to score on Boston's defense?
Josh Hart is 2024s Caleb Martin Candidate.
 

lovegtm

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I think that's 5 turnovers for Embiid in the first half of the 4th lol.
He just doesn't have it, at all. And Maxey is making me awfully anxious about offering a max in July if I'm Philly. They have to do it, but he hasn't covered himself in glory as the #2.
 

lovegtm

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The fact that the 76ers are playing Lowry in critical minutes of a playoff elimination game is telling you all you really need to know about how little depth Philly has after Embiid, Maxey, and Tobias...
It sucks that they had no way to acquire an elite guard who could run an offense while Embiid sits.
 

Cellar-Door

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We'll see if the short rest is enough for Embiid, he was dragging.

As to Maxey... he's an 82 star. Too much of his game depends on regular season play (easy fouls, less gameplan based attention to taking away what he likes, nobody going out of their way to aggressively work him on D)... still a good #3 in the playoffs, but he's not a playoff star
 

TomRicardo

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Embiid has played the entire fourth like he was wearing Atlanta Falcon's Super Bowl LI Jersey on
 

TomRicardo

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We'll see if the short rest is enough for Embiid, he was dragging.

As to Maxey... he's an 82 star. Too much of his game depends on regular season play (easy fouls, less gameplan based attention to taking away what he likes, nobody going out of their way to aggressively work him on D)... still a good #3 in the playoffs, but he's not a playoff star
Maxey has scored 32 tonight against a tough Knicks defense with Embiid trying to get a record for most eyes poked out.
 

lovegtm

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Maxey has scored 32 tonight against a tough Knicks defense with Embiid trying to get a record for most eyes poked out.
I think the comment is based on his overall body of work in this series. The Sixers simply can't hang when Embiid sits, and that's the real test of a #2 for me.
 

TomRicardo

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I think the comment is based on his overall body of work in this series. The Sixers simply can't hang when Embiid sits, and that's the real test of a #2 for me.
Yea he is not enough but tonight is not his fault. Embiid was brutal tonight.

Edit - and Embiid just lost the game with his best Jaylen Brown impression.
 

Cellar-Door

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Maxey has scored 32 tonight against a tough Knicks defense with Embiid trying to get a record for most eyes poked out.
It's more his overall game, he's borderline as a #2, but even tonight... they're losing the minutes he plays and Embiid sits by a ton, just like all series, and he's getting cooked on D whoever they put him on.
 

Cellar-Door

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This Knicks D is a terror. Really hope Porzingis is healthy by then.
Will be interesting to see how they scheme on BOS... they gave PHI a lot of open corner 3s, confident they wouldn't hit them. Generally doing that against BOS gets you blown out (see Heat game 1)