10/17 Weekend game thread

SocrManiac

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Liverpool flying around the pitch pressing, as expected.
 
If they hadn't dumped Rodgers when they did he'd have a heck of a free pass for awhile with this butcher's bill.
 

Nick Kaufman

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Liverpool lucky not to be down on the score. So far I don't think the high press is working and on occasion Spurs break it and find space in the back.
 

PedroSpecialK

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I thought the press worked for 20 min or so but they are coming off an international break and probably haven't had to run this much in a half this season.

Expecting at least a few weeks of training to beat the high press into them.

Origi is painful to watch with his holdup play - night and day compared with Benteke
 

swiftaw

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Such a shame, because I think Ings would've excelled in this system.
 

swiftaw

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Such a shame, because I think Ings would've excelled in this system.
 

SocrManiac

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Origi is either covered in a thick layer of rust or there was a reason he got buried on the depth chart. Tough to tell.
 

coremiller

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LIverpool were better for the first 10-15 minutes but Spurs were the better side after that.  Looked to me like the press gave Spurs trouble at first but they slowly worked out what sort of spacing and passing angles they needed to beat it.  Eriksen in particular has been outstanding, best player on the pitch for me, his movement between the lines and out to the left to link with N'Jie and Rose has given Liverpool all sorts of trouble.  Dembele has also done well, his ability to dribble by players in central midfield is very useful against a press.  Spurs probably should be 1-0 up.
 
Pool look very disjointed in attack.  Origi has worked hard but his touch has been poor and when he has gotten the ball he's lacked support.  Coutinho has had a nice touch but very few chances to get on the ball.  Lallana has done nothing.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Liverpool's  just don't have enough quality on the pitch to either convert pressing turnovers into chances or to hold the ball effectively when in possession (and not turn it over in bad places when Spurs presses).  Part of that is probably players getting used to a new system but you can't play a workmanlike quartet like Can, Lucas, Milner, and Lallana all at the same time in midfield and expect to do much on the ball.  Ideally, you have maybe two of those guys in a lineup at the same time to provide some steel (Can or Lucas at DM) and some energy (Lallana or Milner somewhere).  But all four is just bad news, especially when you're also playing with a young backup striker that isn't very good at holding up the ball and bringing others into play.
 
I think they'll play a lot differently when Firmino, Sturridge, and Benteke are all available.  But Klopp may also need to find a central midfielder with more quality.  Lucas and Can together is ugly.
 

coremiller

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Liverpool's press has been better in the second half, Spurs have less time on the ball and fewer passing angles.  It looks like Pool are pressing even higher in the second half than they were in the first.  They are daring Spurs to try to beat them on the break but so far the Pool CBs have done a good job of not letting Spurs get into space at top speed.
 

DLew On Roids

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Origi has some good ball skills, he's fast, and seems more comfortable facing the goal. I think his long-term future (and remember, he's very young) is wide in a 4-2-3-1.
 

Schnerres

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Seven goals against in 8+ matches for Tottenham is not a bad defense. So with a new system/manager, that´s tough to play. Of course Liverpool doesn´t create anything, so it´s a tough fight from both teams. I guess that´s what you could have expected. They run up and down without any breaks.
 
Liverpool has 6-7 players in the Spurs half and pressing (in the 2nd half) and are winning many easy balls, but don´t know what they should do with it.
If they find a pass through the midfield to about 18-22m away from goal, the receiving player shows a shocking lack of technical ability and the ball bounced (this happened 3-4 times in the last 15mins) 3m away, so a Spur could clear it, instead of a possible shot from 15, 16m.
 

coremiller

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There were three Liverpool fouls in that last sequence and none of them were called.
 

coremiller

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Whoscored says he's taken 28 shots in 8 games before today, with one goal, and I think he's 0 for 3 today.  So 1 for 31.  His best finish this year was the own goal at Swansea.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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coremiller said:
Whoscored says he's taken 28 shots in 8 games before today, with one goal, and I think he's 0 for 3 today.  So 1 for 31.  His best finish this year was the own goal at Swansea.
 
I'm sure there is some bad finishing there but also probably some bad luck.  I can't imagine he's much worse than a 12-15% conversion shooter over a big enough sample so I guess that's around 3 more goals for Spurs so far this season in expectation.  To be honest, pretty good start to the season given that there is that room for positive regression.
 

coremiller

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
 
I'm sure there is some bad finishing there but also probably some bad luck.  I can't imagine he's much worse than a 15% conversion shooter over a big enough sample so I guess that's 3-4 more goals for Spurs so far this season in expectation.
 
Yeah, regression to the mean is likely.  We saw that with Sanchez this year where he was something like 0 for his first 20 shots and then scored 5 goals in 2 games.  Kane is not as good as Sanchez and he won't break out with a hat trick but he's going to get some goals eventually.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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coremiller said:
 
Yeah, regression to the mean is likely.  We saw that with Sanchez this year where he was something like 0 for his first 20 shots and then scored 5 goals in 2 games.  Kane is not as good as Sanchez and he won't break out with a hat trick but he's going to get some goals eventually.
 
That comparison crossed my mind too.  I just saw that Kane converted 17% of shots last year (Sanchez was actually only at 13%) so 3% this year is pretty unsustainable!
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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United-Everton should be a good match.
 
Van Gaal is changing things up.  Blind, Memphis, and Carrick all dropped.  Jones, Rojo, Herrera, and Schneiderlin playing.  It looks like Rooney might be playing on the wing.  Or Martial on the wing with Rooney up top.
 
Everton is playing with Lennon and Scottish Messi on the outside flanking Barkley and Lukaku up top.
 

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Glad to see Schneiderlin in there.  I think he was sorely missed vs Arsenal and needs to be in there instead of one of Carrick/Schweiny.
 
 
NBCSN has Rooney wide and Martial up front.  I think that is reversed but either way I'd expect the front 4 to be a bit fluid.
 

Dummy Hoy

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DLew On Roids said:
Origi has some good ball skills, he's fast, and seems more comfortable facing the goal. I think his long-term future (and remember, he's very young) is wide in a 4-2-3-1.
 
I think this is right, but he can finish too...he's been used up front for Belgium and looked effective. He's got a lot of speed and can cut in with a nose for goal, and yes, he's still pretty young.
 

coremiller

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
 
That comparison crossed my mind too.  I just saw that Kane converted 17% of shots last year (Sanchez was actually only at 13%) so 3% this year is pretty unsustainable!
 
Do you know if there's data on the sustainability of shooting percentages?  I know in hockey there's very little demonstrated ability to sustain unusually high shooting percentages (the best scorers distinguish themselves by generating more chances, not by converting chances more frequently), but I don't know if the same is true for football.
 

SocrManiac

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I was going to make a joke about how Guzan got used to his talented back line with the USMNT, but I can't even.
 
Poor choice, but his defender didn't help him, either.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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coremiller said:
 
Do you know if there's data on the sustainability of shooting percentages?  I know in hockey there's very little demonstrated ability to sustain unusually high shooting percentages (the best scorers distinguish themselves by generating more chances, not by converting chances more frequently), but I don't know if the same is true for football.
 
I've never seen a really systematic analysis on a large data set.  I've read a few pieces that just look at leaderboards in shot conversion over a few years and there is a lot of turnover.  My suspicion is that only a few very special players likely have the ability to sustain high shot percentages (Messi is consistently high for example) but that for the vast majority of players there's not much evidence of sustained conversion skill.  Even for guys like Aguero and Ronaldo, their skill seems to be largely just in generating high numbers of chances rather than converting them.