Surprisingly busy news day. First and foremost, Chiellini has been ruled out of the final, which is a HUGE loss to Juve. He is a world class defender and obviously knows how to agitate Suarez and get him off his game. Moreover, he is an excellent target on set pieces, so it really is a humongous loss. Wish it hadn't happened, even as a Barca fan. This essentially confirms that Juve will play with a back 4, including Bonucci and Barzagli in the middle, with mainstays Lichtsteiner and Evra at fullback. Juve have Ogbonna also on the squad (I believe Caceres is out), so perhaps he will start ahead of Barzagli, or maybe they play all 3, but I doubt that. Maybe in the 2nd half if they have a lead, but I suspect we are more likely to see Pereyra (offensive) or Sturaro (balanced) come on for Pirlo than a 3rd CB. Perhaps both?
Pedro has also signed a new agreement. On the one hand, I'm sure Barca is throwing a ton of $ at him because they cannot buy any new players this summer, Pedro is a fantastic player in his own right, and he is familiar with Barca as a La Masia graduate. On the other hand, I am surprised he didn't elect to go find a starting job elsewhere. He will get a solid number of starts, but he will always be behind SNM when it comes to the biggest matches. Perhaps they have a handshake agreement to let him go elsewhere next season? That would make sense to me.
There are 3 matchups/themes I will be watching very closely. First, I will be interested to see how Juve defend their right flank. Licht is not a stay at home defender and Barca runs a lot of attackers thru that area. Since Messi draws so much attention on the opposite side, you frequently see Neymar, Alba, Suarez, Rakitic and Iniesta overload that side. What Barca does better than any team I've ever seen, is switch the point of attack quickly and force the defense to maintain shape on the fly. I bet Juve's players ran laterally in defensive shape A LOT the past two weeks. Since Pirlo does not move much, I think he will be parked in the middle and be asked to clog up space. So, the interesting piece will be how Marchisio, Pogba, and Vidal defend. Will they mark man or zone? How will they transition into attack? If I'm Juve, I probably dedicate Marchisio to the Neymar flank since he's the least attacking minded one of the group and tell him to protect Licht. I then put Vidal slightly ahead of Pirlo, so that he's usually covering one of Rakitic or Iniesta. This also puts him in better positions to initiate attacks. Pogba plays off slightly towards Messi and denies him the ball as much as possible and be the weakside defender when the ball is on the Neymar flank. This way he can jump into attack, without the fear of Messi hounding him (Messi really doesn't spend much energy on defending) and Pogba is fast enough to get behind Alves. When Messi drops into a false 9 role and switches with Suarez, I think Juve keeps the same shape, but becomes incredibly narrow. Leaving Suarez out to their left flank with Evra cheating towards the middle.
The second thing I will be watching closely if and how Juve press Sergio. I could easily see Tevez asked to work hard and deny Sergio time on the ball. Sergio is underrated in his offensive acumen and is a pace setter for Barca's play out of the back. The problem for Juve is that Pique and Mascherano are both capable of taking space and bypassing Sergio on their own. Morata can probably harass one of them, but this is one area where Juve will have to give a bit. Nevertheless, taking Segio out of his comfort zone on offense should be considered a win for Juve. Alternatively, Juve could more aggressively sick Vidal on Sergio and have their forwards harass Barca's CBs, but Barca has so much more skill at those 3 positions than most teams, that it's probably not worth the effort. I could see Juve mixing it up to keep Barca off balance or adjusting between these strategies based on scoring and other circumstances (e.g. energy levels).
Lastly, how Barca press and what gaps it may leave is a key to the game. Iniesta and Rakitic are incredibly good at forcing turnovers from opposing defenders and midfielders. They press incredibly high. I have little doubt that Suarez will be keyed in on Pirlo and Rakitic/Iniesta will be adding pressure to force Pirlo to give the ball up quickly. Alba is the fastest and feistiest FB I have seen is some time, so I don't think there's much space on that flank. So, I expect the goal for Juve will be to attack the Alves flank repeatedly. Pogba, Vidal, Tevez, and Morata should be attacking that space nonstop, and try to pass around Segio and Pique (2 very tall players with telescopic legs) on the counter quickly. Tevez in particular, will try to draw the CBs out of position and then Juve will try to play the ball behind to Morata and a bombing forward Vidal.
Looking at this matchup, Barca are favorites. But, since Juve is a well-organized defense, has a midfield that can work incredibly hard on defense while still keeping Barca honest at the back, and has forwards who can create on their own and have a nose for goal, this is by no means a lopsided matchup. To me, the key tactical element will be how Juve's midfielders defend and how they transition to attack. Ultimately though, I expect Barca's attackers to grab multiple goals (at least one from SNM and another from Rakitic/Iniesta, and possibly a set piece), while Juve possibly nets 1 or 2 from Tevez brilliance or Morata class finishing.
Final prediction, 2-1 Barca. Rakitic, Suarez, and Vidal with the goals.