2014-15 Champions League: the Quixotic Quest to Qualify

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DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Round of 16 was not a very good round for the Premier League or for the Bundesliga.  
 
Pretty interesting to look at the 8 teams on a map -- a very Mediterranean affair.   Four Iberian peninsula teams and six of the eight in a pretty narrow longitude band -- Lisbon, Madrid (x2), Barcelona, Monaco, Turin.  No team north of Paris. 
 

deconstruction

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
Round of 16 was not a very good round for the Premier League or for the Bundesliga.  
 
Pretty interesting to look at the 8 teams on a map -- a very Mediterranean affair.   Four Iberian peninsula teams and six of the eight in a pretty narrow longitude band -- Lisbon, Madrid (x2), Barcelona, Monaco, Turin.  No team north of Paris. 
 
Quick correction that doesn't change your point: Porto, not Lisbon.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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deconstruction said:
 
Quick correction that doesn't change your point: Porto, not Lisbon.
 
Right -- of course.  I think I had Lisbon on the mind because of the recent final there.
 

Schnerres

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I don´t think the Bundesliga played bad, but you´re right when you say it wasn´t a "very good" round for the four teams. Bayern had a decent away match and a superb home match. Schalke played bad at home and great away. Dortmund played decent away and bad at home, Leverkusen played good at home and decent away.
All in all those were very unsettled performances, with Dortmund on the bad end, Schalke overperforming, Bayern playing like it should and Leverkusen showing a good performance, but not getting the results needed against a top team.
Spanish teams were lucky, when you see both Madrid teams advancing with those somehow bad performances (held against their own standards), while Barca clearly outplayed City. Both french teams earned their quarterfinal spots, but got the luck that both Schalke and Leverkusen missed.
Porto outplayed Basel.
When I had to make a rating just based on the last round it should look like this:
 
Barca
Juve
Porto
Bayern
Paris
Atletico
Monaco
Real
 

Zososoxfan

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The gulf between Barca and MANC last night was almost as stark as the first leg. Even though MANC doesn't have the players that Barca has, I think Pellegrini got it wrong again. Messi had way too much space and wasn't static either. He had space on the left, on the right (when he switched there briefly), and in the center. Yaya played too deep. There wasn't much of a plan on offense and it was too predictable. Joe Hart is my man of the match - channeling Buffon circa 2006 yesterday. Barca's defense looked very solid other than a brief spell in the 2nd half. Navas looked better than Silva and Nasri. Aguero couldn't get enough feeds.
 
Schnerres said:
I don´t think the Bundesliga played bad, but you´re right when you say it wasn´t a "very good" round for the four teams. Bayern had a decent away match and a superb home match. Schalke played bad at home and great away. Dortmund played decent away and bad at home, Leverkusen played good at home and decent away.
All in all those were very unsettled performances, with Dortmund on the bad end, Schalke overperforming, Bayern playing like it should and Leverkusen showing a good performance, but not getting the results needed against a top team.
Spanish teams were lucky, when you see both Madrid teams advancing with those somehow bad performances (held against their own standards), while Barca clearly outplayed City. Both french teams earned their quarterfinal spots, but got the luck that both Schalke and Leverkusen missed.
Porto outplayed Basel.
When I had to make a rating just based on the last round it should look like this:
 
Barca
Juve
Porto
Bayern
Paris
Atletico
Monaco
Real
 
I would go:
 
Barca - on form and looking solid all around.
Bayern - Muller/Ribery/Robben is comparable to Barca and Real's tridents, but better defense than Real. Plus Lahm.
Real - Just as talented as top 2, just on poorer form.
 
Juve - Looking very frisky, I definitely don't want to draw them, but they haven't played the same level of competition as the others.
PSG - Lacking the firepower up front after Ibra, but their MF is playing out of their minds right now.
 
Atleti - I still enjoy this team very much, but I don't think they have the horses to hang with the teams above.
 
Porto - Admittedly, don't know much about them. Their squad does include Maicon, Bruno Indi, and Quaresma though!
Monaco - From what I can tell, very much a system team. Berbatov inspires.
 

soxfan121

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Is there a connection between Viggo Mortensen the rabid San Lorenzo, Montreal Canadiens, New York Giants, and New York Mets fan, and Viggo Mortensen the actor, composer, photographer, poet?
I don’t know. I enjoy the drama of sports. I think the basic ingredients of any good drama have to do with relatively ordinary people being faced with extraordinary circumstances. How do characters act when everything goes wrong? How do they deal with stress, humiliation, injury, death, suffering, separation, and war? I see that in sports. I see people playing hurt, or playing hard even if they know they have no chance to win. Do you watch soccer?
A bit.
Well, there’s a real character whom I loathe but find entertaining — José Mourinho, the coach of Chelsea. I like Real Madrid, and when Mourinho coached them, he basically destroyed the team psychologically. The damage he did to the fan base and the whole structure of the club will last for a while. He was playing a match two days ago in the Champions Leagueagainst Paris Saint-Germain. It was the return match, and Chelsea had the advantage of an away goal in their first match, and it was unlikely that things were going to go well for Paris. Then partway through the first half, Paris unfairly had a player thrown out. So they were playing 10 against 11. Chelsea should have creamed them. But it ended up being an epic 120 minutes, with comeback after comeback, and even though Paris was playing with a numerical disadvantage, they kept playing really beautiful, pure football, and Chelsea was just playing not to lose. In the last minutes of regulation time, Paris tied it up, and in the last minutes of extra time, they tied it again. Since they had two away goals compared to the one away goal Chelsea had, Paris went through. It was great, dramatic. It was almost like watching a movie.
 
 
link
 

Titans Bastard

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sachmoney said:
I can totally see the winner of the Juve-Monaco tie winning this competition btw. 
 
At the very least it guarantees a semifinalist from a country other than Germany, Spain, or England for the first time since 2009-10 when Inter and Lyon made it.  Both Juve and Monaco have to be thrilled with this draw.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Does the first team in the tie, as listed, play the first leg at home?

Edit: yes. Found it on the uefa site
 

Snoop Soxy Dogg

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soxfan121 said:
Is there a connection between Viggo Mortensen the rabid San Lorenzo, Montreal Canadiens, New York Giants, and New York Mets fan, and Viggo Mortensen the actor, composer, photographer, poet?
I don’t know. I enjoy the drama of sports. I think the basic ingredients of any good drama have to do with relatively ordinary people being faced with extraordinary circumstances. How do characters act when everything goes wrong? How do they deal with stress, humiliation, injury, death, suffering, separation, and war? I see that in sports. I see people playing hurt, or playing hard even if they know they have no chance to win. Do you watch soccer?
A bit.
Well, there’s a real character whom I loathe but find entertaining — José Mourinho, the coach of Chelsea. I like Real Madrid, and when Mourinho coached them, he basically destroyed the team psychologically. The damage he did to the fan base and the whole structure of the club will last for a while. He was playing a match two days ago in the Champions Leagueagainst Paris Saint-Germain. It was the return match, and Chelsea had the advantage of an away goal in their first match, and it was unlikely that things were going to go well for Paris. Then partway through the first half, Paris unfairly had a player thrown out. So they were playing 10 against 11. Chelsea should have creamed them. But it ended up being an epic 120 minutes, with comeback after comeback, and even though Paris was playing with a numerical disadvantage, they kept playing really beautiful, pure football, and Chelsea was just playing not to lose. In the last minutes of regulation time, Paris tied it up, and in the last minutes of extra time, they tied it again. Since they had two away goals compared to the one away goal Chelsea had, Paris went through. It was great, dramatic. It was almost like watching a movie.
link
 
This is excellent. Can Aragorn be any more perfect?
 

Zososoxfan

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It makes sense that 2 Spanish teams would be drawn together for entertainment purposes (semis and/or finals with teams from the same association can be boring), but it also robs fans of opportunities to compare how good leagues are compared to each other. I don't think Monaco, Porto, or Atleti (albeit to a lesser extent) has a chance to win the UCL. Juve should be ecstatic with their draw and Pep got to see a potential semifinal opponent this week, but avoided them in the quarters, so you know Bayern are pumped. I'm very happy that Atleti drew Real because they have had good results against them this year and I think they can give Real a real test. PSG is on good form (at least in Europe), but it will hurt to have Veratti and Ibra out for the first leg. Barca should look to dominate midfield with Veratti out. Put lots of pressure on Luiz and Matuidi and win the ball back high up the pitch. I would prefer if the final 16 were drawn into a tourney, so that we would know the road to the finals from the start of the knockout phase. It would be endless fun to fill out a UCL bracket.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Schnerres said:
Uefa CL quarters draw:
 
PSG-Barca
Atletico-Real
Porto-Bayern
Juve-Monaco
 
PSG-Barca should be interesting.  Barca is a much improved team compared to the fall, but PSG gave them all they could handle over the two group stage matches, even registering more shots on goal.  As Zososoxfan notes, missing Verratti should hurt them in the first leg.  I think missing Ibra is actually less of a big deal - Cavani can play CF and might actually be a better fit for this kind of match where they will look to play on the counter and will probably need to defend actively from the front to disrupt Barca's possession game.  They also beat Barca at home without Ibra in September.  Barca still has to be a big favorite but I think PSG has a real chance.
 
Atleti-Real should be great.  Real has been in a total funk but they've also been missing key players so I could see their form returning a month from now.  Even though Atleti has owned them this season, I have to make Real favorites over two legs, especially if they have everybody healthy.
 
Call it sour grapes but I think Monaco blows and that Juve will roll them.  I was very impressed with Juve against BvB.  Tevez is playing out of his mind.
 
No offense to Porto but I can't see them holding up against Bayern over two legs.  That looks like the biggest slam dunk of the ties.
 

coremiller

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I think Atleti have to be favored against Real.  They are 4-0-2 against Real this year, having won both the two-legged SuperCopa tie (drawn away, won at home) and the Copa Del Rey tie (same).  The last time they played, in the league at Calderon, Atleti played them off the park and won 4-0.  
 
I think Barca are the favorites to win right now, just because Messi is back in peak form and when he's playing like this they're almost unstoppable.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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coremiller said:
I think Barca are the favorites to win right now, just because Messi is back in peak form and when he's playing like this they're almost unstoppable.
 
Agree, though I think Bayern has a favorable matchup this round, and also the second leg at home.  That puts them one win from playing a final in Berlin, which could be an advantage.  I'd actually probably put them as the betting favorites right now, with a slight edge over Barca.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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coremiller said:
I think Atleti have to be favored against Real.  They are 4-0-2 against Real this year, having won both the two-legged SuperCopa tie (drawn away, won at home) and the Copa Del Rey tie (same).  The last time they played, in the league at Calderon, Atleti played them off the park and won 4-0. 
 
For me it all depends on form and injuries.  Atleti has owned Real like I noted above, but those six matches were also played either in August-early September, when the season was just beginning, or during Real's 2015 swoon when they played for the most part without Modric or Ramos and have had poor results in general.
 
If a month from now Real looks the same as they do today, and if they're still missing Modric and/or Ramos, then I'd make Atleti a big favorite.  If Real rediscovers form and looks like the team that played from September-December, however, I would make them the favorite.  On their best form, Real is the better team, even if Atleti is a particularly difficult matchup for them.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
 
Agree, though I think Bayern has a favorable matchup this round, and also the second leg at home.  That puts them one win from playing a final in Berlin, which could be an advantage.  I'd actually probably put them as the betting favorites right now, with a slight edge over Barca.
 
I agree with this logic.  I also like Bayern in a head-to-head matchup with Barca simply because Guardiola is the better manager and his knowledge of the Barca team should be a significant advantage, especially in the hands of a manager known to be insanely meticulous in his tactical planning.
 

bosox4283

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Despite my early threats not to work, I'm here at work.
 
So, is the only way to watch this game via my mobile device (iPhone) is to pay for FoxSports2Go? I know back in February FoxSports2Go offered a seven-day free trial, but it seems that this offer is no longer on the table. 
 
I would find a stream through rojadirecta, but the iPhone is maybe the only way to watch the game this afternoon. Plus, it can be hard to find a good and consistent stream.
 
So, $19.99 it is, I suppose. I hope it's $20 for a joyful experience rather than misery. 
 

filthywater49

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You could also download a flash-enabled browser like Photon and stream it for free using the normal live stream sites, though if quality of a must then this won't be good for you.
 

Vinho Tinto

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bosox4283 said:
Despite my early threats not to work, I'm here at work.
 
So, is the only way to watch this game via my mobile device (iPhone) is to pay for FoxSports2Go? I know back in February FoxSports2Go offered a seven-day free trial, but it seems that this offer is no longer on the table. 
 
I would find a stream through rojadirecta, but the iPhone is maybe the only way to watch the game this afternoon. Plus, it can be hard to find a good and consistent stream.
 
So, $19.99 it is, I suppose. I hope it's $20 for a joyful experience rather than misery. 
 
If you have a cable sub, you can stream using Fox Sports Go since both matches are on FS1 and 2. 
 
Oblak is such a good keeper. Still surprised/bitter he lost the shootout vs Sevilla. 
 

bosox4283

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I sucked it up and paid Fox. The app quality is garbage--well, at least for me this afternoon--but the online streaming service is fine. 
 
I'm watching next week in a bar. With a beer. 
 
Seven matches against Real Madrid this year, and Real Madrid has yet to win one. Let's hope the 8th isn't the charm. 
 

bosox4283

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I just read that it should have been a red to Neuer. Do you agree?
 
Has anyone watched much Porto this year? I'm wondering how well Oliver Torres has been playing. 
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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bosox4283 said:
I just read that it should have been a red to Neuer. Do you agree?
 
Has anyone watched much Porto this year? I'm wondering how well Oliver Torres has been playing. 
 
I am watching the other game but this looks like an obvious red to me.  I hate this rule but he is pretty clearly the last man.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikBR8pdINio
 

Schnerres

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Bayern are lazy on defense, twice the same mistake, once by Xabi Alonso, once by Dante. First time, Neuer came close, in the tenth slowmo, it looked like he touched the ball slightly, but the ref cannot see that. The ball goes sideways, so you can have an argument that it´s not a clear scoring chance, if he dribbled it that way. The scoring chance was before he dribbled. He should have shot it, then he could have scored, just like he (Quaresma) did at the second goal.
Still, Bayern is heavily dominating (65+%) possession, just like you were expecting. Now, Thiago Alcantara scored after a long cross from Boateng that rolled low across the entire goal.
 

coremiller

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I actually think Neuer gets the ball and it isn't a foul at all.  But if the ref gives the penalty, it pretty much has to be a red card.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Even if the ball went sideways, the player might have been able to get to it first and slot it into an open goal if Neuer had not tripped him.
 
I think you guys are right that Neuer might have slightly grazed the ball, the ref isn't really sure whether its a foul or not because he's so far behind the play, so he decides to split the difference and give the penalty but not the card.
 

blueguitar322

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Watching that youtube on a small screen, it looks like Neuer gets the ball and changes its direction. It'll be interesting to see a fullscreen replay at half.
 

Schnerres

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3-1 Porto...Boateng misjudged the ball, Neuer was clearly waiting and not going all-in with his yellow, so...poor defense on Boateng´s part.
 

Zososoxfan

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Suarez steals the show in Barca-PSG. His second finish was outlandishly good. His dribbling on both was pretty amazing. It's impressive how he can seem slightly off for parts of the game and then he just absolutely takes matters into his own hands and shows he's world class. It might be partly due to Barca's style, but it's crazy how a lot of his big game goals look like bolts of lightning out of nowhere. Maxwell turning the ball over caused the first goal, but man that was a fast and lethal counter. PSG's goal was pretty flukey. PSG definitely missed Verrati big time as their midfield got overrun for most of the game. Barca looks like they're thru to the semis.
 

bosox4283

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The winner tonight is Real Madrid, for it seems that Danilo, the RB that Real Madrid recently signed, is that important to Porto. 
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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The two favorites are flexing their muscles today.  I hope they don't get drawn against each other in the semi final round.
 
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