2014 Bengals: Can They Finally Win a Playoff Game?

[tims4wins]

I am not in any way trying to troll, but you wrote this back in July:
 
 

I'm generally a glass half-empty guy (as if this franchise has given me any reason not to be) but this is pretty ridiculous. Johnson is a big loss and Zimmer leaving will have some effect, but that should be at least offset by having Hall and Atkins for more than half a season. Offensively, Jackson is a sizable upgrade on Gruden and they gave 220 carries to BJGE and Sanu a bunch of snaps on the outside, both of which are being replaced by clearly superior options. While I'm certainly not a Dalton fan, he's good enough to consistently beat mediocre and bad teams. Plus, there are a lot more younger guys in significant roles with arrows pointing up than the other way around.
 
The Bengals were 116 points better than the Steelers last year, 157 than the Ravens and 223 than the Browns, who lost their best player. There's no way they finish last and it's pretty doubtful they come in third.

 
What has changed in your view?
 
Edit: and for reference, this year the Bengals are 43 points worse than the Steelers, 51 points worse than Cleveland, and 80 points worse than the Ravens.

 

[DaughtersofDougMirabelli]

Andy Dalton's Terrible, Horrible, Not Good, Very Bad Thursday Night Football Game:
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlIzqROCHVE

 

[Rudy's Curve]

I am not in any way trying to troll, but you wrote this back in July:
 
 
 
What has changed in your view?
 
Edit: and for reference, this year the Bengals are 43 points worse than the Steelers, 51 points worse than Cleveland, and 80 points worse than the Ravens.

 
The regression of the defensive line is the biggest issue. Michael Johnson had really come on the last two years and while I wouldn't have paid him and they couldn't pay him what he got (they essentially chose Dunlap over him), he's been a huge loss. Wallace Gilberry was a great find off the street but is probably JAG at the end of the day, Margus Hunt has been a huge disappointment and you may as well be playing with 10 guys when Robert Geathers is out there. I underestimated how long it would take Atkins to get back to full strength as he simply wasn't himself for the first seven games - he's come on a little bit the last three but still isn't that dominant force yet. They've also really missed Brandon Thompson when he's been out as he's their best run stuffer. Peko was never good but has taken his suck to a whole new level this year.
 
The run-stuffing woes have extended to the linebackers. They've obviously really missed Burfict and it was tough to see this coming since he had never missed a game due to injury since he got to college. Lamur has been a pretty big disappointment - I thought his athleticism would translate very well but he's still raw. Harrison didn't have much pass rush left last year, but he was still excellent setting the edge and they've certainly missed that. The secondary has generally been very good but whether it's them or the linebackers in coverage, they've gotten gashed by TEs all year.
 
Offensively, what I wrote before didn't project that Marvin Jones wouldn't play a single snap. Although Sanu has been very good, Jones probably would've matched that and given them a lot more depth which they certainly needed with Green being out for three games and a majority of a fourth, plus a dangerous three-wide set as Sanu is best in the slot. Eifert has also unexpectedly been out the whole year and they planned on playing a ton of two-TE - they've had to feature Gresham a lot more which is never a good thing. On the OL, it was time for Kyle Cook to go but Russell Bodine has just been awful - he's singlehandedly murdered a bunch of plays. Dalton has committed some horrible turnovers, but that's pretty much par for the course.
 
Even after three blowout losses, it would be a lot easier to stomach if they were 6-3 and the tiebreaker on Baltimore mattered. The tie has a very good chance of keeping them out of the playoffs.

 

[DanoooME]

You know Jets fans were saying last night: "Wow, even our guys haven't been THAT bad!"

 

[DJnVa]

So, if it continues, will this implosion finally cost Marvin Lewis?

 

[Rudy's Curve]

So, if it continues, will this implosion finally cost Marvin Lewis?

 
I don't think so. Obviously, Mike Brown is as much of a status quo guy as anyone and I think Lewis would need more than one bad year in a row. That being said, he's only under contract through next year and a bad year might make Brown reluctant to extend him. Of course, you should really never have a coach on the last year of his contract and the Bengals already tried this once where it ended in extreme failure (2010).
 
Ideally, Lewis would move to the front office and Jackson would become the coach but I doubt that's going to happen.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Dalton was miked up and on the sideline, and when it was 14 - 3 Browns, I think, he goes into a pep talk to teammates in his weak voice, something like "we're in this, keep playing, don't let up", etc. The Bengals around him looked like shut the fuck up dweeb, we don't care what you're saying. It was pathetic. 

 

[ALiveH]

how come they never subbed in Jason Campbell?

 

[singaporesoxfan]

how come they never subbed in Jason Campbell?

They did.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

I guess this team just needs to avoid prime time. Although the Saints lost their invincibility at home the previous week, this was still a really impressive bounce back and was sorely needed. They got a fortunate break as Saints top corner Keenan Lewis could only play 11 snaps and Dalton went to work repeatedly to Green on backups Brian Dixon and Corey White. Hill continued his excellent rookie campaign as H-Back Ryan Hewitt repeatedly paved the way. It'll be very interesting to see how they distribute the snaps when Bernard comes back this week, because Hill is clearly the better between the tackles back and a better fit for the power run game they want to run. 
 
This game was all about the defense though. Rey Maualuga has been oft-criticized (especially by me), but he made a huge impact in the run game in his return as they blanketed a previously red hot Mark Ingram. The game changed for the good when they stopped the Saints five times inside the five (a very questionable personal foul gave them a new set of downs) and never looked back. Brees was 33-41 without an interception but they never let him have anything downfield - his long was 17 yards and they always made the first tackle when they repeatedly made him check down. George Iloka popped Graham the first series with a questionable hit - it was a personal foul but may have had an effect as he only caught three balls for 29 yards. With starter Zach Strief getting a concussion, Dunlap terrorized replacement Brice Harris and got the pressure the line was sorely lacking.
 
On to Houston in what is certainly not going to be an easy game, but one they have to win along with next week in Tampa Bay to gear up for the home stretch.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

Another ho-hum win in a spot they really needed it. Dalton was excellent except for a pick-six in a spot where he just has to take a sack (although Clowney was blatantly offisdes on the play). That isn't quite asking other than that how was the play Mrs. Lincoln, but it's still something that can't really happen. The running game really clicked with Hill as he gains yards after contact that Bernard simply can't get and iced the game down the stretch. Green was the go-to guy they needed him to be with 12 catches for 121 yards while Sanu added a couple more acrobatic catches to his collection. The line was the unsung hero as they held Watt to his weakest game of the year - unfortunately, they appear to have lost Andre Smith for the season. Replacement Marshall Newhouse has played much better since his disaster against the Browns and started 31 games for the Packers, so hopefully he make a decent enough fill-in.
 
The biggest key to this resurgence has been the defense, specifically against the run. They caught a break with Foster out yesterday, but they were constantly winning at the line of scrimmage and held Alfred Blue to 2.9 YPC. Maualuga has played the best football of his career the last two games in a spot they've especially needed him without Burfict. They were able to force Mallett to try to beat them which played into their strength in the secondary - he averaged a pathetic 4.2 YPA and the Texans didn't score an offensive TD. Unfortunately, they're not going to be able to solely rely on the secondary against upper-echelon passing games - they need a pass rush that they just haven't gotten this year. 
 
They complete the three-game road trip next week in Tampa Bay in a game they can't afford a letdown with Pittsburgh twice, at Cleveland and Denver looming in the final month.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

Marvin Lewis is a motherfucking genius!

 

[jsinger121]

Marvin Lewis is a motherfucking genius!

Don't worry he will still blow another playoff game.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

It wasn't easy but you don't apologize for wins in this league, especially on the final leg of a three-game road trip (for instance, the Broncos were playing their third straight road game when they got smoked by the Rams). Dalton was puking all night and up until gametime with the flu and it showed in the first half with three horrific interceptions. He did rebound in the second half, but those first halfs will get them buried against better teams. The running game shifted towards an even snap count between Bernard and Hill which is what it should be down the stretch, if not more in Hill's favor. Sanu showed his versatility with another completion and run for first downs, but committed another killer drop which has been his Achilles heel this year. Unfortunately, Marshall Newhouse was a disaster again at RT which led them to move Clint Boling (who last played there in college) from LG. They signed Eric Winston today who should be able to contribute next week in Cleveland.
 
The run defense showed some of their previous leaks in the first half letting Doug Martin go off a bit, but rebounded to the unit they've been the prior two weeks in the second half and clamped down. The secondary is clearly the best unit on the defense and probably on the team - they held Josh McCown to a 58.1 rating while shutting down a red-hot Mike Evans and have allowed a league-low 11 passing TDs and a 75.0 rating (.9 behind the Browns for first) despite almost no pass rush. Meanwhile, the special teams have been very good all year as they rank seventh in FOs ratings despite below-average field goal kicking - they lead the league in FOs punting by almost seven points over second place Baltimore as Kevin Huber has had a Pro Bowl-quality year teamed with excellent gunners Dre Kirkpatrick and Darqueze Dennard.
 
With everyone else in the division losing, they hold a 1.5-game lead on the other three teams with four to play for a magic number of three. It won't be easy with Pittsburgh twice, a trip to Cleveland and a home MNF date against Denver, but they should be able to manage a split which would likely get them at least a playoff spot.

 

[tims4wins]

I'm extremely intrigued to see how Cincy does these last two games, vs. Denver and @ Pittsburgh. They could actually back into the playoffs with 2 losses if Buffalo, KC, and San Diego each lose at least one of their remaining two games, but Cincy really needs to win one in order to guarantee their playoff spot.
 
In particular I am curious to see how they play next Sunday night vs. Denver. They have rightfully earned the label as a team that is not able to perform in prime time; wonder if they will be able to shed that and earn a signature win.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

I'm extremely intrigued to see how Cincy does these last two games, vs. Denver and @ Pittsburgh. They could actually back into the playoffs with 2 losses if Buffalo, KC, and San Diego each lose at least one of their remaining two games, but Cincy really needs to win one in order to guarantee their playoff spot.
 
In particular I am curious to see how they play next Sunday night vs. Denver. They have rightfully earned the label as a team that is not able to perform in prime time; wonder if they will be able to shed that and earn a signature win.

 
As I mentioned in the other thread, I think they're in regardless although I'd certainly rather not leave that to chance. 
 
I've been fooled a billion times before, but I think they've finally made the necessary changes for the best chance of offensive success. Jeremy Hill is the best back they've had since Dillon and a true three-down chain-mover. They finally gave him the majority of the carries and proceeded to dominate the game and time of possession - the Browns ran the fewest plays of any team in any game all year. Now, Denver and most other playoff teams won't be as easy to run on as Cleveland, but they're going to have at least some success if they keep giving him the ball. Of course, the quarterback is going to have to make a play now and then if they're going to go anywhere.
 
Monday is going to be really tough, but they've played great defense in four of their last five games and Manning has been pretty pedestrian recently.