2015 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot

[JimRiceHOFer]

http://www.baseballhall.org/hof/2015-bbwaa-ballot
 
6 former Red Sox are appearing on the ballot for the 1st time this year - Pedro, Nomar, Smoltz, Tony Clark, Tom Gordon, Cliff Floyd.
They join 4 former Red Sox on the ballot - Schilling, Clemens, Bagwell and Lee Smith
 
Who do you think gets in this year?
Who else deserves get in?
 
Will get in this year:
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Craig Biggio
 
Should get in:
John Smoltz
Tim Raines
Jeff Bagwell
Mike Piazza
Edgar Martinez
Curt Schilling
Lee Smith

 

[Monbo Jumbo]

Smoltz is a former Red Sox. 

 

[MakMan44]

Smoltz is a former Red Sox. 

:barf:

 

[Comfortably Lomb]

Will get in:
Pedro
Johnson
Biggio
 
Should get in:
Clemens
Bonds
Smoltz
Piazza
Martinez
Bagwell

 

[Average Reds]

Will get in:
 
Pedro
Johnson
Smoltz
Biggio
 
 
Should get in but probably won't:
 
Piazza
Raines
Bonds
Clemens
Bagwell
Schilling
 
Edit:  After listening to MLB radio on my way home last night, I'm now more comfortable that the BBWAA will not demonstrate a combination of ignorance ("not enough wins") and petulance to deny Pedro a first ballot election.  However, given the logjam of worthy candidates, I'm still wary to a certain degree.

 

[Leather]

I think Smoltz (along with Pedro and Unit) get in. 
 
I think that's it, unfortunately.  

 

[lexrageorge]

Will get in:
 
Johnson
Smoltz
Biggio
Piazza
 
Should get in but probably won't:
 
Pedro
Raines
Bonds
Clemens
Bagwell
Schilling
 
I very much want to move Pedro up to the "will get in" category, but I have learned not to trust the intelligence of the BBWAA.

Pedro being left out should be grounds for removing the voting rights of the BBWAA.  
 
Will get in:
 
Randy Johnson
John Smoltz
Pedro
 
Likely to get in, but may be close:
 
Craig Biggio
 
Possible, but will probably need to wait until 2016:
 
Mike Piazza
Jeff Bagwell
 
Unlikely, but should:
 
Edgar Martinez
Tim Raines
 
With only Griffey Jr. being the only sure shot candidate becoming eligible in 2016, there should be an opportunity for some of the near misses next year. 

 

[Oppo]

^^just about exactly what I was going to post^^

 

[Dahabenzapple2]

Smoltz in before Pedro?!?!
 
It's been discussed often - it is without a reasonable argument that Pedro is among the best 3 to 4 pitchers who ever pitched

 

[Average Reds]

Smoltz in before Pedro?!?!
 
It's been discussed often - it is without a reasonable argument that Pedro is among the best 3 to 4 pitchers who ever pitched

 
There is no justification for Pedro not being a first ballot HOF member.
 
I have a sneaking suspicion that a number of members of the BBWAA will not place him on their ballots in his first year of eligibility in any case.  Hopefully I am very wrong.

 

[Dahabenzapple2]

 
There is no justification for Pedro not being a first ballot HOF member.
 
I have a sneaking suspicion that a number of members of the BBWAA will not place him on their ballots in his first year of eligibility in any case.  Hopefully I am very wrong.

 
yes - they have a poor voting record from many aspects
 
Imagine Tom Glavine in before Pedro Martinez
 
sleep on that for a bit

 

[ItOnceWasMyLife]

Dear BBWAA,
 

 

[lexrageorge]

 
There is no justification for Pedro not being a first ballot HOF member.
 
I have a sneaking suspicion that a number of members of the BBWAA will not place him on their ballots in his first year of eligibility in any case.  Hopefully I am very wrong.

I do agree that there will be some NY writers that will keep him off their respective ballots over some artificial metric such as number of wins or the classic "first ballot HoF'er" nonsense.  However, I don't think the number of such writers will exceed 20%, which is still enough margin for Pedro to get in. 

 

[Average Reds]

I do agree that there will be some NY writers that will keep him off their respective ballots over some artificial metric such as number of wins or the classic "first ballot HoF'er" nonsense.  However, I don't think the number of such writers will exceed 20%, which is still enough margin for Pedro to get in. 

 
That's precisely my concern.  Hope you are correct.

 

[TheYaz67]

Pedro being left out should be grounds for removing the voting rights of the BBWAA.  

 
Highly unlikely when you remember the current President of the BBWAA was one of the shitheads that left Pedro entirely off their 1999 MVP ballot....
 

 
That's precisely my concern.  Hope you are correct.

 
They will no doubt both leave Pedro off, and throw a vote instead to Aaron Boone, who is also on the ballot for the first time this year.
 
edit: for wrong decade

 

[Toe Nash]

I do agree that there will be some NY writers that will keep him off their respective ballots over some artificial metric such as number of wins or the classic "first ballot HoF'er" nonsense.  However, I don't think the number of such writers will exceed 20%, which is still enough margin for Pedro to get in. 

I doubt it will be even 10%. He got to 200 wins, 3000 Ks, the ring. He's 17th in pitcher WAR. Obviously his rate stats are off the charts.
 
Unless someone has a weird cutoff like 500 games started or 3000 IP I don't think you can deny him.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

 
Highly unlikely when you remember the current President of the BBWAA was one of the shitheads that left Pedro entirely off their 2009 MVP ballot....

He gave the Phillies a boost that year, no doubt, but I think it's justifiable that a writer didn't view him MVP-worthy.

 

[richgedman'sghost]

 
yes - they have a poor voting record from many aspects
 
Imagine Tom Glavine in before Pedro Martin
 
sleep on that for a bit

I

 

[richgedman'sghost]

 
yes - they have a poor voting record from many aspects
 
Imagine Tom Glavine in before Pedro Martinez
 
sleep on that for a bit

I don't understand your point. Glavine retired before Pedro did so of course he would be eligible before him. He also won 300 games which pretty much ensures  a slam dunk first ballot election. In addition, I'm pretty sure the other poster was referring to George King who left Pedro off the MVP ballot in 1999. That was just a typo in my opinion.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

If I had a vote... (in no particular order)
 
Randy Johnson
Pedro
Mike Piazza
Edgar Martinez
John Smoltz
Craig Biggio
Jeff Bagwell
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Fred McGriff
 
I think we'll see
 
Will get in: Pedro, Randy Johnson, Smoltz, Biggio, Piazza
 
Should get in: McGriff, Bonds, Clemens, Edgar Martinez, Bagwell

 

[Dahabenzapple2]

My point is that 300 wins should not ensure a first ballot election.

Glavine was never close to the pitcher that Pedro was and neither was Smoltz. Pedro should be unanimous choice.

Why is 300 wins a lock for first ballot but 3000 hits didn't get Biggio elected?

Is 300 wins more impressive?

Old school was that either was an automatic. But Don Sutton didn't get elected on the first ballot, did he?

 

[E5 Yaz]

A side track: Highest percentage of the vote
 
1. Seaver
2. Ryan
3. Ripken
4. Cobb
5. Brett
 
Could the Big Unit break in here?
 
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hof/hofmem4.shtml

 

[grimshaw]

My picks (bolded will get in)
 
Pitchers
Clemens
Pedro
RJ
Smoltz
Schilling
Moose
 
Batters
Bonds
Piazza
Trammell
Bagwell
Edgar Martinez
Biggio
Raines
Larry Walker
 
Borderline
Kent
McGriff

 

[BoSox Rule]

I don't have a lot of faith in the BBWAA but Pedro shouldn't have a problem getting 90-95%.  He is one of the most dominant pitchers in the history of the game, doesn't have any suspicion of PED use, in fact all the writers marvel at the fact that he dominated that era as one of the clean players.  His charisma is through the roof and he is a TV guy on the big stage so he is kind of "one of them."  Now, I still won't be surprised if he gets like 70% of the vote because of his win total being 219.

 

[lexrageorge]

My point is that 300 wins should not ensure a first ballot election.

Glavine was never close to the pitcher that Pedro was and neither was Smoltz. Pedro should be unanimous choice.

Why is 300 wins a lock for first ballot but 3000 hits didn't get Biggio elected?

Is 300 wins more impressive?

Old school was that either was an automatic. But Don Sutton didn't get elected on the first ballot, did he?

In this day of 5-man rotations and pitch count limits, getting to 300 wins is a pretty impressive feat.  Glavine fully deserved the honor of being voted in last year.  As will Smoltz this year.  
 
I agree vehemently that Pedro was a far better pitcher than both, and I cannot see how anyone could ever vote for Glavine and Smoltz and leave off Pedro.  However, the BBWAA is a strange lot, and there will be some idiotic voters that will have problems with Pedro's 219 career wins.  There will probably be some angry Jack Morris supporter that will also leave Pedro off.  I'm not justifying any of their actions; just pointing out some of the weirdness that happens around HoF voting.  These voters will probably just be noise, as I'm quite sure Pedro will likely get to 90% when all is said and done, and at the end of the day HoF membership really is "in" or "out", no matter how one gets there.  As long as the moron contingent does not exceed 25.0000% of the voters, I'll be OK.  

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

Could someone make the case for McGriff?

 

[Merkle's Boner]

There are so many qualified candidates this year that it is unlikely that 5 or 6 will reach the 75% threshold. Voters can only vote for ten and so I expect to see either more guys falling way down close to the 5% mark for remaining on the ballot, or a whole bunch of guys in that 40-60% range and only a few hitting the 75% mark.

 

[threecy]

My point is that 300 wins should not ensure a first ballot election.

Glavine was never close to the pitcher that Pedro was and neither was Smoltz. Pedro should be unanimous choice.

Why is 300 wins a lock for first ballot but 3000 hits didn't get Biggio elected?

Is 300 wins more impressive?

Old school was that either was an automatic. But Don Sutton didn't get elected on the first ballot, did he?

Pedro was no doubt more dominant in his prime than Glavine.  But it wasn't like Glavine sailed through mediocrity to 300 wins.
But, Glavine was a top to middle of the rotation, full year starter for almost two decades, whereas with Pedro, closer to a dozen seasons.
Glavine also started 35 post season games and was an elite performer in the World Series (including winning a World Series MVP).

 

[BigMike]

Pedro, Johnson Smolts get in.  Maybe Biggio,  I guess maybe Piazza
 
Ultimately I don't much care. I can't take the hall seriously until Bonds is in

 

[Al Zarilla]

For those who have any doubt about Pedro because of his win total or anything else, Sandy Koufax got in first year of eligibility with 86.9% of the vote. He's the poster child for lacking overall stats (wins) that got in right away. Koufax had 165 regular season wins. Koufax also had about as many "average" seasons as great ones. Of course, the great ones were phenomenal. [SIZE=13.63636302948px]Pedro's in, IMO.[/SIZE]

 

[JimRiceHOFer]

While I agree with your choices, when was the last time we saw a six person class? I know we have a glut coming and they probably need to start being less snobby, I just don't know when or if we will see it begin.

 
Have never had a 6 player class inducted in the same year.  
Only had one 5-player class, the 1st year (1936)

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Could someone make the case for McGriff?

 
Weak, I suppose, but...he had a better career than Rice or Cepeda? He was IBB'ed twice as much during his prime as the "feared" Rice. He was consistently good-great over 16 seasons. His 5 year stretch from 1988-1992 had slightly higher OPS+ (157) than Ortiz's 2003-2007 (156), to speak of how great he was at the plate during his peak. If not for the 1994 strike, he's probably above that round number of home runs that would bolster his case. 
 
He's a step below Bagwell, but he was one of the best players at his position for a decade, and put up a 119 OPS+ in his final ten seasons. Unfortunately, he was overshadowed by Mattingly when he was in the AL East, and by Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine on those great Braves teams. It's not going to be a travesty if he doesn't make it, but I can see why people would consider him worthy.

 

[axx]

I like how the HoF does bios for each of the candidates, even the ones who obviously won't get in.
 

Pedro, Johnson Smolts get in.  Maybe Biggio,  I guess maybe Piazza
 
Ultimately I don't much care. I can't take the hall seriously until Bonds is in

 
It's clear the Steroid guys aren't getting in (& I am including Piazza on that list) but they will be there for awhile since you do get 10 votes. 
 
Edit: And looking at Delgado's stats, I have to say I am surprised he was only invited to the All Star game twice. Guess that's what happens when you play in Toronto for most of your career.

 

[TheYaz67]

Just want to point out that it is also Mattingly's last year on the ballot - got only 8.2% of the vote last year... his high water mark was his very first year of the ballot as sentiment and Yankee pride provided him 28.2% of the vote, before voters sobered up in subsequent years...
 
In addition to the big three, Biggio should get in next year just because he was SO close last year (his 2nd on the ballot) with 74.8%. 
 
Piazza will likely not get in - in his second year on the ballot he got 62.2%, after getting 57.8% his first year, so perhaps the year after this one when the top of the ballot is less crowded, if he can get his total up closer to 70% this year.
 
Bagwell actually took a step backwards last year (lost 29 votes between 2013 and 2014), so no shot for him next year.  A four person class, with Biggio the only non-pitcher will be kind of cool.
 
Also deserves watching - whether or not Sosa (7.2% last year) and McGwire (11% last year) drop off the ballot (below 5%) - Palmeiro dropped off last year, his 4th year of eligibility, and McGwire's support has dropped 5 years straight from a high of 23.7%....

 

[Rich Garces Belly]

Could someone make the case for McGriff?

Gladly, McGriff is one of the biggest victims of the steroid era as it caused him to be constantly overshadowed during his playing career, also a victim of the strike shortened season which cost him a projected 12 home runs which would have put him over 500 for his career.  McGriff also played 19 seasons, although his numbers dropped over time  he did finish with an OPS+ of 134, a wRC+ of 134, an iso of .225, and a career 57.2 WAR.  During his peak years from '88 through '94 his OPS+ was 155 with 242 homers over that stretch (the most in the league over that stretch).  Also over those same years he finished with a WAR of 4.5 or higher six times, 5.5 or higher four of those years, and in '88 had a WAR of 6.6.  

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Jack Morris was the first player to get over 50% on a ballot and not eventually get in.

 

[OCST]

Just seeing Tim Raines on this list makes me sad about the fate of the Expos.

 

[Plympton91]

Pedro, Johnson Smolts get in.  Maybe Biggio,  I guess maybe Piazza
 
Ultimately I don't much care. I can't take the hall seriously until Bonds is in

Yeah, Pete Rose and all those worthy Black Sox players are getting hosed too.

I'd go for:

Pedro,
Johnson,
Shilling,
Mussina,
Smoltz,
Piazza,
Biggio,
Martinez,
Bagwell,
And Nomar just so he doesn't get less than 5 percent on the first ballot.

 

[jasvlm]

My 2015 ballot:
Pedro
Johnson
Schilling
Mussina
Smoltz
Piazza
Edgar
Bagwell
Raines
Clemens

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

While I agree with your choices, when was the last time we saw a six person class? I know we have a glut coming and they probably need to start being less snobby, I just don't know when or if we will see it begin.

 
I meant to get to this earlier. Sorry for forgetting.
 
Anyway, yeah, I think with the glut they are going to start being more liberal with the use of their votes. We'll see less empty ballots and more concerted efforts to get people close to induction or near the bottom off the list where it's reasonable. In short, I think we'll see less writers using their ballots to make a point.

 

[Laser Show]

It makes me sad that rather than debating the HOF candidacies of guys like Raines, Delgado, Sheffield, McGriff, Trammell, Walker, Smith, etc. baseball fans everywhere are instead reduced to hoping that the writers manage to elect more than 3 of the 10-15 sure-fire HOFers that currently sit on the ballot.

 

[jasvlm]

I believe that we're on the cusp of seeing more changes coming from the BBWAA regarding HOF balloting.  They have changed the 15 year rule to 10 years, and I think that is a positive sign, in that they are at least cognizant of the fact that the current system requires amendment.  There is a glut coming, as others have mentioned, and it would be a terrible shame for guys mentioned above to get lesser consideration because of a systemic glitch.

 

[Bigpupp]

Allowing writers to select as many players as they want would be a good next step.

 

[axx]

It makes me sad that rather than debating the HOF candidacies of guys like Raines, Delgado, Sheffield, McGriff, Trammell, Walker, Smith, etc. baseball fans everywhere are instead reduced to hoping that the writers manage to elect more than 3 of the 10-15 sure-fire HOFers that currently sit on the ballot.

 
There is no way there are 10-15 sure-fire HoFers on the list. The guys mentioned above are weak candidates at best. As for the steroid guys, sure they are taking up space but they are really just a distraction and gives the voting some more publicity.
 
I looked at the future players who become eligible and it's a pretty small list of who could realistically get voted in:
 
2016 - Griffey Jr
2017 - Vlad Guerrero (there is also Manny and IRod, but those two probably will get lumped in with the Steroid guys)
2018 - None
 
I know the Hall really does not want a shutout, so I don't know what they will do in 2018.

 

[Laser Show]

 
There is no way there are 10-15 sure-fire HoFers on the list. The guys mentioned above are weak candidates at best. As for the steroid guys, sure they are taking up space but they are really just a distraction and gives the voting some more publicity.
 
I looked at the future players who become eligible and it's a pretty small list of who could realistically get voted in:
 
2016 - Griffey Jr
2017 - Vlad Guerrero (there is also Manny and IRod, but those two probably will get lumped in with the Steroid guys)
2018 - None
 
I know the Hall really does not want a shutout, so I don't know what they will do in 2018.

 
Here's who I think are sure-fire HOFers on the ballot in alphabetical order:
 
1) Jeff Bagwell
2) Craig Biggio
3) Barry Bonds
4) Roger Clemens
5) Randy Johnson
6) Jeff Kent
7) Edgar Martinez
8) Pedro Martinez
9) Mark McGwire
10) Mike Mussina
11) Mike Piazza
12) Curt Schilling
13) John Smoltz
14) Sammy Sosa
 
I count 14 of the best players of the past 2-3 decades on that ballot. I tend to be on the liberal side when it comes to this, though, so take out Kent, Edgar, and maybe Mussina too if you wish. Still at 11 all-timers.
 
And I'm not sure what you mean by saying that the steroid guys are "really just a distraction." What happens to them long term will define the Hall of Fame. Will it be a Hall of Very Good Baseball Players Who We're Pretty Sure Didn't Cheat or Do Something Else Bad? Or a (IMO more legitimate) Hall featuring the best players of the game, regardless of other factors? If you're against them I understand, but as a baseball fan who cares about the HOF I think saying they're "just a distraction" isn't doing the issue justice.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Those are weak candidates, but Vlad is a slam dunk? Wha? Only McGriff is behind Vlad in oWAR, and it's by a pretty small amount.

 

[axx]

Those are weak candidates, but Vlad is a slam dunk? Wha? Only McGriff is behind Vlad in oWAR, and it's by a pretty small amount.

 
Not a slam dunk, just that he will get serious consideration. It's the Hall of Fame, it's not going to be easy. Biggio will get in but he may be the only one of the returning candidates to even get close.
 
It's certainly possible the Hall could go multiple years with nobody voted in.

 

[GilaMonster]

Will get in:
Pedro
Johnson
Biggio
 
Should get in:
Bonds
Clemens
Piazza
Schilling
Bagwell
Mussina
Walker
Edgar
Raines
Smoltz
McGwire(borderline, but I'll give it to him because I'll always remember the home run race)

 

[GilaMonster]

 
Not a slam dunk, just that he will get serious consideration. It's the Hall of Fame, it's not going to be easy. Biggio will get in but he may be the only one of the returning candidates to even get close.
 
It's certainly possible the Hall could go multiple years with nobody voted in.

 
 
I think Vlad will be a fun case because he'll always be remembered for his insane tools.  He almost had a 40/40 season, hits balls in the dirt like it was nothing, and is in a conservation for best arm in game with Ichiro.

 

[Plympton91]

I get the case for Bonds and Clemens (and eventually ARod), who probably would have been all time greats clean; but you can't tell me that Sosa and McGwire even sniff at Cooperstown without the juice. I can't see them ever getting in.