I posted this also in the Penn State thread...
Here's the Campus Onsider take on the game:
Both teams are still alive in the Big Ten championship chase. Michigan (8-2) has a little more control than Penn State (7-3) – okay, a LOT more control – but the loser of this is definitely out. At the very least, this will go a long way to figuring out the Big Ten bowl pecking order and will set the stage for a big final week of the season. Check out the Michigan vs. Penn State prediction and game preview.
Why You Need To Care
Michigan might have been shaky against Minnesota and Indiana on the road – needing goal line stands in each to get out with tight wins. But there’s still a shot to do just about everything anyone could’ve hoped for, needing to win this week to set up the season-ender against Ohio State. First, the Wolverines need to take care of business against the Nittany Lions. Second, they need Ohio State to beat Michigan State. If that happens, then the hype will be off the charts for the showdown with the Buckeyes. Can Michigan get into the CFP? If it dominates over the next two weeks, and if it’s able to get a shot at a 12-0 Iowa and wins in a blowout, then … maybe.
Penn State is still in this thing, too. It’s going to need to win out against Michigan and Michigan State, and it’ll need Ohio State to beat Michigan State, and then it’ll need Michigan to beat Ohio State – it’s all complicated, but it’s possible. But just getting a really, really strong win would be nice considering the best victory so far came against San Diego State. This is a good team with a solid defense, but now the offense will have to come through. Now the inconsistent attack that rolled through Maryland and Illinois needs to rise up after two weeks off and come up with something special.
Why Michigan Will Win
Penn State doesn’t have a Jordan Howard. Indiana ran for 307 yards last week with Howard and running the same play over and over again. The Michigan run D hasn’t been quite as strong as it was early in the year when it didn’t allow 100 yards rushing six straight games, but outside of last week it’s still been excellent. The Wolverine defense should be able to swarm all over the mediocre Penn State rushing game that hasn’t hit the 200-yard mark in any of the last seven games – but it came up with 195 yards against Penn State. No. 2 in the nation in pass efficiency defense, Michigan will take its chances against the Nittany Lion passing game.
Why Penn State Will Win
As good as Michigan’s defense has been, it’s not a monster when it comes to takeaways with just four in the last five games. While Penn State has had some fumbling issues lately, the passing game isn’t giving it up – and the defense is picking up the slack. The air attack has picked thins up with Chris Godwin hitting the 100-yard mark in three of the last four games, and with DaeSean Hamilton stepping up his game. This team does have weapons, and they’re just starting to figure it all out late in the season. At home, the offense should hum, especially if …
Player Who Matters
… this is Christian Hackenberg’s last home game. It’s not like he’s captured the heart of Nittany Lion nation – he just hasn’t been good enough – but his game is coming around at just the right time. The NFL prospect has thrown just three picks on the year and just one in the last seven games with 12 touchdown passes. He’s still not accurate enough, and he’s still too inconsistent, but he’s also had a strong three-game stretch throwing for 786 yards against Maryland, Illinois and Northwestern. He was just okay in last year’s loss to Michigan, but he threw for 305 yards and three touchdowns and two picks as a freshman in the 43-40 win. He has to be fantastic in the home finale.
What’s Going To Happen?
a well-rested Penn State will come out hot, but Michigan will slowly grind away with the rushing attack. The defense will rise up after last week’s problems against the Hoosiers, and Hackenberg just won’t be good enough. If he’s the best player on the field, Penn State wins. He won’t be.
Michigan vs. Penn State Prediction
Final Score: Michigan 27, Penn State 20, Line: Michigan -4, o/u: 42.5