I could see a team desperate enough for power throw him a 6 or 7 year deal. Also Farrell laughing at the suggestion of trading him dosent hold water, isn't Farrell supposed to not announce they are actively trying to trade player x.jimbobim said:
2015 OF Discussion
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Yeah -- Farrell is great about holding the company line. He's a pro. He may have just hung up a phone conversation with Cherington in which they discussed trading Cespedes, but he'd turn around to a reporter and say "that's stupid. We'd never trade a power hitting left fielder."
And Davis saying he has "greatness written all over him" is hardly inconsistent with trying to shop him.
I don't think you (and others who've espoused this line of thinking) can post Nava's numbers versus righties and imply that that's the only relevant number because he should never face lefties. I think the reality is that with a four-man bench, at least 20% or so of his plate appearances are going to come versus lefties. Sometimes another OF is going to be banged up or need a day off and he's going to have to start against a lefty. Other teams know Nava sucks against lefties and they'll bring in LHP to face him, and the Sox might not necessarily be able to pinch hit for him depending on the state of the bench and how the game has progressed to that point.Drek717 said:
Maybe because they're streaky, mediocre hitters equally prone to abhorrent down years as they are above average seasons? Just like Salty's awesome year for the Marlins.ALiveH said:
Those guys weren't superior protection because of their power either, they were superior protection because they weren't posting wRC+ numbers in the mid-70's like most of the Sox' roster did in 2014. Brock Holt was a revelation for the lineup in the middle of the season with zero power and a high BA and OBP fueled by absurd BABIP luck. When the majority of your roster limits their failure to get on base to something between 6-7 out of every 10 ABs instead of 7 out of ever 10 ABs your team suddenly looks a whole lot better.
This "low-hitting environment" didn't just suddenly materialized globally because the Red Sox went from scoring a healthy mid-800's number last year to a mid-600's number this year. Baseball didn't change overnight on January 1st 2014. The Sox FO gambled big on young talent and questionable health for 2014 and it kicked their ass. This team could be up over 800 runs again next season with some luck and smart choices. We aren't suddenly back in the dead ball era. A mid-700 OPS fueled heavily by a big SLG number isn't as good as a high 700's OPS fueled by a high OBP like you could get from Nava and a platoon partner, for less than 1/3rd the dollars paid to Cespedes mind you.
You can't have three OFs on the bench unless you really think the FO is suddenly going to give up the 12th pitcher binky they've held to religiously for years now. Something needs to give and Cespedes is the one with the highest value relative to his actual production. Ideal world he's one of the three you start, but if the choice is Cespedes and a log jam in the OF or no Cespedes and his trade results in legitimate help to the starting pitching or 3B, well, he's not significantly better over a Nava/Craig or Vic platoon to turn down the help where it is at least equally needed.
To me it really depends on how the very beginning of free agency goes. If the Sox can swoop in early and land Lester and Headley on good deals they can afford to keep Cespedes, shop Nava and Craig knowing that they can have Craig or Betts start in AAA based on who's healthy and how they look in spring training, etc.. If instead they get locked out on any kind of real answer for a front line starter and a starting 3B they're going to end up trading value off the current 25 man to fill those holes, most likely from the OF logjam. I'd much rather trade Cespedes than Betts, and no one else brings back a return even close to those two. At that point I'd gladly settle for a Cespedes for Daniel Murphy + prospects deal to stop the bleeding at 3B for example.
This is not right. Nava's final option was used this year. He was assigned April 23 and recalled June 2, so he exceeded the 20 days. The other years his options were used were 2010 (77 games at Pawtucket) and 2011 (entire season with Pawtucket).ALiveH said:
Super Nomario said:
I'd assume ~25% of his PAs will come vs. lefties. His last 3 years, he has a .828 OPS vs. righties and .578 vs. lefties. Taking that 75/25 split still gets you to an OBP-heavy 765 OPS, which is a very valuable hitter to have on your 25-man roster.
ok i stand corrected on Nava's options, but there's still a good chance that Vic or Craig starts the year on the DL, or that Craig is terrible in spring training. so, two out of three would be the bench.
Scoring 850+ runs would have been really impressive (and totally unrealistic) this year, bc the angels led the majors with 773. Overall, run scoring was down 3.6% in the AL.
OPS+ factors in relative value of OBP and SLG, yes? Cespedes' 116 career OPS+ compares with Nava's 118 career OPS+ against just RHP. The difference is you can play Cespedes every day and don't sacrifice a roster spot to a platoon.
Scoring 850+ runs would have been really impressive (and totally unrealistic) this year, bc the angels led the majors with 773. Overall, run scoring was down 3.6% in the AL.
OPS+ factors in relative value of OBP and SLG, yes? Cespedes' 116 career OPS+ compares with Nava's 118 career OPS+ against just RHP. The difference is you can play Cespedes every day and don't sacrifice a roster spot to a platoon.
ALiveH said:
I don't believe it does, no. A better metric in that regard is wRC+. Nava's career wRC+ vs. RHP is 126; this year it was 118. Cespedes' career wRC+ vs. everybody is 115; this year it was 109. So Nava vs. RHP is definitely (though not hugely) a better hitter than Cespedes vs. everybody.
And Cespedes' OPS+ is pushed up by his big first year that he's never matched.ALiveH said:
Super Nomario said:
I think that assuming 5 OFs with Craig and Victorino as the bench options you could significantly reduce Nava's plate appearances against LHP. Add having Brock Holt (platoon split came and went year to year through his mL career, big reverse split in his ML sample this past season) as a utility man/super sub and you can do a lot of things to take Nava out of the lineup against LHP. Will he still see some lefties? Sure. He'd be a LOOGY guy in late game situations for sure. But when you can replace him with Vic, who has a big positive split against LHP himself and is a superior defender anyhow, you solve your own problem.
If someone gets hurt Brentz is just down the road in Pawtucket as well.
Would he still have to occasionally face a lefty? Sure, but it can be significantly reduced with a commitment to do so and RH heavy OF depth around him. The organization would just need to legitimately commit to it. Platoons are an incredibly effective way to generate above average production for below average dollars when you have the right players.
Any thoughts on the rumors that Cespedes is on his way out ... signing with "Roc Nation", not taking Sox offer for 4 - 5 years made to his previous agency, noise out of NY paper that Sox coaches don't like him and that Cespedes wants out of Boston.
OPS+ values OBP a bit higher than SLG inherently due to its formula because league OBP is a smaller denominator than league SLG, but the difference isn't large enough to account for the actual difference in value. This is one if the reasons that wRC+ is a better statistic than OPS+: it properly values on base ability and power.
derekson said:
Why would this follow, though? It seems like it would only be true if the absolute range of values was the same in each case, rather than proportional to the difference in the denominators. If league OBP average is .320 and the 75th percentile OBP value is .350, while league SLG is .400 and the 75th percentile value is .450, then having a 75th-percentile SLG actually counts a bit more toward your OPS+ than having a 75th-percentile OBP. (I don't know if those numbers are accurate, just showing how the effect could work.)
lxt said:
Slow down. Cano's signing with Roc Nation was supposed to be a sign that he was certainly staying in New York because Jay Z, until... he wasn't. Maybe Roc Nation is just another agency.
Cespedes just saw another Cuban teammate represented by that agency recently receive a fantastic contract. He might just admire their work. They certainly did alright for Cano.
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