2015 Patriots Secondary: Safety in Numbers

[soxhop411]

Field Yates ‏@FieldYates  3m3 minutes ago
Source: the Patriots have cut veteran CB Bradley Fletcher.
 
Mike Reiss ‏@MikeReiss  1m1 minute ago
With open roster spot from releasing CB Bradley Fletcher, #Patriots are promoting safety Brandon King from practice squad. Special teamer.

 

[mikeford]

 

[tims4wins]

Our long national nightmare is over

 

[RedOctober3829]

I said he'd be gone before the end of the month. That was quick.

 

[mwonow]

Well...on the one hand, Bradley, we hardly knew ye.
 
On the other - the experience wasn't that great while you were around!
 
The fact that an experienced corner wouldn't even garner a late round pick pretty much says all you need to know about how he's playing...

 

[Old Fart Tree]

It was real, it was fun, but it wasn't real fun.

 

[jsinger121]

BB will find someone at a team's garage sale prior to the deadline to help the CB depth.

 

[amarshal2]

BB will find someone at a team's garage sale prior to the deadline to help the CB depth.

Yeah, the depth is a real concern. I feel good about the starting 2, fine about the nickel spot, and really concerned if a top guy goes down.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Trade deadline is November 3.   Hard to really know who might become available, but it has become clear the last couple years that the Pats are willing to pay for a rental if one does.
 
Certainly no reason that we saw this year to think Fletcher was better than taking a shot on 'random FA' who might be available, though

 

[Harry Hooper]

Yeah, the depth is a real concern. I feel good about the starting 2, fine about the nickel spot, and really concerned if a top guy goes down.

 
Yeah, a loss of Butler or McCourty is a hit below the waterline for the SS Pats.

 

[RoDaddy]

The Arrington and Dennard releases didn't make a lot of sense at the time since CB was our one weak position after the loss of Revis and Browner. Those cuts look even more questionable now that Fletcher hasn't worked out.

 

[crystalline]

Fletcher may be riding the Ross Ventrone shuttle. He was hurt and questionable for this game anyway so they may have cut him thinking they'd probably have. a chance to bring him back.

 

[dynomite]

Trade deadline is November 3.   Hard to really know who might become available, but it has become clear the last couple years that the Pats are willing to pay for a rental if one does.

One team to look at as a potential trading partner is the Texans.

Belichick always seems to prefer trading with his pals, and the 1-4 Texans are headed toward being sellers I think, and I imagine a player in Crennel's system could learn ours fairly easily.

Not sure if there's an actual match with an actual player, just sort of speculating.

Edit: as for bringing Fletcher back, that's possible, but he's a much bigger name than a special teams role player like Ventrone was... And he also just doesn't seem to add much. He lost his job to a UDFA.

 

[Devizier]

Now who is going to get my "thumbs down" game ball every week?

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

Now who is going to get my "thumbs down" game ball every week?

Ryan Allen? It's like the dude didn't even bother to show up last game.

 

[Ed Hillel]

The Arrington and Dennard releases didn't make a lot of sense at the time since CB was our one weak position after the loss of Revis and Browner. Those cuts look even more questionable now that Fletcher hasn't worked out.

Arrington has been awful, Dennard is a free agent after being cut by the Cardinals preseason, and, while it's easy to forget, Daryl Roberts was slotted to start across from Butler before he ended up on IR preseason.

 

[Klostrophobic]

When LaFell is back, Edelman can play a bit more corner.
 
Realistically the next game they'll need a second good corner is in the AFCCG, so they have some time. In about a month, Jacksonville, Detroit, Chicago, Tampa, San Fran, Houston, Cleveland, New Orleans and a few others will be totally out of it and willing to trade upcoming FA cornerbacks (where there is one in that group worth acquiring I dunno).

 

[Saints Rest]

Isn't there a trade deadline coming up?

 

[richgedman'sghost]

November 3rd.

 

[Super Nomario]

I'm not stunned Flecher's gone, but they're currently carrying seven safeties and just four cornerbacks. All the safeties contribute on special teams, but it's still hard to see them all active on game day. It's a bit curious they cut Fletcher instead of Tavon Wilson. I wonder if we'll see some three-safety nickel with McCourty playing in the slot. Fletcher was also the tallest corner in the team, but it's not like you could trust him to play Brandon Marshall or Dez Bryant without help anyway.

 

[Toe Nash]

The Arrington and Dennard releases didn't make a lot of sense at the time since CB was our one weak position after the loss of Revis and Browner. Those cuts look even more questionable now that Fletcher hasn't worked out.

Corners' performances are incredibly volatile. Remember when NE signed Leigh Bodden to a 4-year deal and he played 5 more games in the NFL? Even guys like Cromartie go from Pro Bowl level to awful overnight and then back again. I tend to trust the coaches who watch these guys every day on these moves.

 

[Caspir]

Bodden suffered a career ending back injury after going on IR with a shoulder (?) problem. He didn't fall off because of performance.

 

[tims4wins]

Picked up CB Rashaan Melvin today. Too bad he blows (or at least did in the playoff game)

 

[5dice]

He was the guy in that Gronk buttcrack photo.
He has size and speed for a DB, not much else.

 

[LondonSox]

Shocked he lasted this long, as an Eagles fan who watched for far too many games, if you had managed to reclaim him a la chung I might have gone and punched the secondary coach in Philly. 

 

[Super Nomario]

Pats CB transactions since the end of the season. They ended the season with Revis, Browner, Arrington, Ryan, Butler, Dennard. Players currently on the 53-man in BOLD.
2/6: Signed Justin Green and Dax Swanson
3/10: Pats decline Revis, Browner options
3/12: Signed Chimdi Chekwa
3/18: Signed Bradley Fletcher and Robert McClain
OK, so they subtracted two and added five, but none of the five are currently on the roster.
5/2: Drafted Darryl Roberts. Also signed UDFA Jimmy Jean.
5/5: Cut Dennard
5/11: Cut Arrington
5/18: Cut Chekwa
6/8: Signed Derek Cox
7/29: Signed Tarell Brown
So the first CB they added in the offseason that's on the team was Brown in late July. This couldn't have been the plan from the beginning, right?
8/1: Cut Cox and Green
8/26: Cut Jean
9/1: Put Roberts on IR
This is the start of the season
9/4: Signed Justin Coleman
9/5: Cut Coleman, Swanson, and McClain
9/9: Signed Coleman again
10/10: Cut Fletcher
10/14: Signed Rashaan Melvin off waivers
 
Can anyone figure out a plan here? Were they really thinking, "Butler and Ryan are the backbone of a strong unit and we can cobble together the rest of the group with guys available late in the offseason?" Do they think McCourty makes these guys so much better that they can dumpster-dive for CBs? Did they expect Roberts to start, and if so, why put him on IR (his cast is reportedly already off)?

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Picked up CB Rashaan Melvin today. Too bad he blows (or at least did in the playoff game)

 
We really lit him up in that game.  14 catches on 18 targets for 210 yards and 2 TDs.
 
Belichick must have really liked him on tape to sign him after that kind of abuse.  Ravens fans seemed to think he had done a pretty good job as an emergency starter beforehand.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Can anyone figure out a plan here? Were they really thinking, "Butler and Ryan are the backbone of a strong unit and we can cobble together the rest of the group with guys available late in the offseason?" Do they think McCourty makes these guys so much better that they can dumpster-dive for CBs? Did they expect Roberts to start, and if so, why put him on IR (his cast is reportedly already off)?

Keep throwing shit at the wall and hope something sticks?

I think a big part is that BB/Patricia liked their cover players at safety and figured they'd often be putting three safeties on the field in sub packages, so the need for CB depth was a bit lessened.  Then they probably figured that if they cycled through enough JAGs, UDFAs, and other league detritus, they'd eventually find two more CBs that could play the scheme well enough to be serviceable additions to the Butler/Ryan duo.
 
The Colts game will be an interesting stress test on our DB depth since they can really put four dangerous receivers into a pattern at the same time, whether going 4 WR with Hilton/Moncrief/Johnson/Dorsett or 3WR with Fleener in for one of those guys.

 

[tims4wins]

And Brown has been somewhat gimpy - didn't practice today. So it could ramp up the stress levels.

 

[YTF]

Is it at all possible that they look at the schedule in advance and spend money accordingly? Do they think they can get by on less in certain areas based on the schedule and the personnel of the other teams and then reassess needs for the following season? Does that make any sense, going year to year in certain areas based on that? There really aren't too many teams on the schedule that feature a top notch passing game, but it seems that taking that road would bite you in the ass come playoff time unless you can adjust pre-deadline.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Is it at all possible that they look at the schedule in advance and spend money accordingly? Do they think they can get by on less in certain areas based on the schedule and the personnel of the other teams and then reassess needs for the following season? Does that make any sense, going year to year in certain areas based on that? There really aren't too many teams on the schedule that feature a top notch passing game, but it seems that taking that road would bite you in the ass come playoff time unless you can adjust pre-deadline.

It is very possible that they do this.  If you look last year, they played a schedule that was very top QB and WR heavy(Rodgers/Nelson, Manning/DT/Sanders, Stafford/CJ, Marshall and Jeffrey, Rivers).  This year, the QBs and WRs are dreadful for the most part.  
 
They quickly saw they couldn't retain Revis.  Browner was not a big loss as he's playing as bad as any CB in the league this year.  They saw their strength is in the front seven and really doubled down in that area by adding Sheard in FA and drafting Malcolm Brown and Trey Flowers.  I would like more talented CBs, but if this way works out so be it.  They really do need a solid deadline pickup.  Signing FA corners is a boom-or-bust proposition IMO.  There are many flameouts that are given big guaranteed money.

 

[dynomite]

Can anyone figure out a plan here? Were they really thinking, "Butler and Ryan are the backbone of a strong unit and we can cobble together the rest of the group with guys available late in the offseason?" Do they think McCourty makes these guys so much better that they can dumpster-dive for CBs? Did they expect Roberts to start, and if so, why put him on IR (his cast is reportedly already off)?

Great questions. I wondered about this all offseason, and here's my best guess:
- they really believe in Butler
- they think that with DMC (and the rest of the safeties) they can cobble together the rest.

The amount of one-on-one they gave Butler against Antonio Brown in Week 1 basically indicated to me that they're not just using the safeties to paper over the corners.

Their search for secondary CBs, on the other hand, did seem to have a "see what sticks" feel to it. Maybe they were hedging their bets, knowing those guys could get safety help when needed and wouldn't be on the field as much?

 

[tims4wins]

Great questions. I wondered about this all offseason, and here's my best guess:
- they really believe in Butler
- they think that with DMC (and the rest of the safeties) they can cobble together the rest.

The amount of one-on-one they gave Butler against Antonio Brown in Week 1 basically indicated to me that they're not just using the safeties to paper over the corners.

Their search for secondary CBs, on the other hand, did seem to have a "see what sticks" feel to it. Maybe they were hedging their bets, knowing those guys could get safety help when needed and wouldn't be on the field as much?

 
Agree with this. Obviously BB loves DMC, but I think he also really likes Harmon as a deep safety against the pass. Harmon has made a lot of plays this year and at the end of last year that justify that confidence. So if BB thinks he has a really good LCB in Butler, and two very strong cover / deep safeties in DMC and Harmon, and has a decent amount of faith in Ryan as the RCB or slot CB, then finding another CB or two doesn't seem to be a huge need.

 

[BaseballJones]

I really like Butler and think he's going to end up being a fantastic, upper-level NFL corner.  DMC and Harmon make for a terrific safety combo, and I think Richards has the goods to be a long-term quality NFL starter at S.  It's the other corner that is the concern.  Against Indy, one thing they have a lot of is good receivers.  I'm very curious to see how the secondary does against the Colts (assuming Luck is playing).  

 

[tims4wins]

Is there a good source for CB target / catch / yardage stats in-season?

 

[Van Everyman]

How are the Pats using Chung this year? I realize I've barely heard his name called.

 

[dynomite]

Is there a good source for CB target / catch / yardage stats in-season?

When I looked for this a few years ago it was behind a paywall on FootballOutsiders.

 

[soxfan121]

Browner was not a big loss as he's playing as bad as any CB in the league this year.  

 
You are correct, sir. Awful. And, coincidentally, Rob Ryan keeps using him in the slot or against TEs, and he's been even worse when positioned there. 

Browner can be useful in the right role but outside of that narrow role, he's not a good corner. 

 

[StupendousMan]

How are the Pats using Chung this year? I realize I've barely heard his name called.

 
Football Outsiders provides snap counts.  Not the full story, of course, but perhaps this will help.  I think he's been a regular at strong safety, often playing up near the line in run support.   But that's not based on any film study, so I hope that real experts will correct me.

View attachment 1357

 

[mulluysavage]

Looks like they like Coleman too.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I sure would be happy if the patriots managed to somehow hit on Butler AND Coleman as two solid starting cornerbacks they could plug in and pay relative peanuts to while focusing their cap resources elsewhere on the roster. That is, of course, wildly unlikely and, frankly, just having one of them become that stabilizing, acceptable option at corner is probably asking a lot. But that sure would take the sting out of that STOLEN draft pick - another fantasy, Kraft and the entire organization referring to the picks as "stolen" any time the subject comes up - and would allow BB, et al, to keep steamrolling the league for the rest of TB12's career.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

I sure would be happy if the patriots managed to somehow hit on Butler AND Coleman as two solid starting cornerbacks.

Don't forget Daryl Roberts, who was flashing in camp and was a very good bet to make the roster.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Don't forget Daryl Roberts, who was flashing in camp and was a very good bet to make the roster.

Roberts seemed not only on track to make the roster, but to start. That was a pretty big loss.

 

[soxfan121]

Roberts played one quarter of one preseason game. And a broken wrist isn't a season ending injury for a guy the team thought was "on track to start". He gets a redshirt year, and hopefully makes the most of it, but if the Patriots thought he was worthy of starting, he'd never have been put on IR and had his season ended. 

 

[Super Nomario]

Roberts played one quarter of one preseason game. And a broken wrist isn't a season ending injury for a guy the team thought was "on track to start". He gets a redshirt year, and hopefully makes the most of it, but if the Patriots thought he was worthy of starting, he'd never have been put on IR and had his season ended. 

I agree with all of this. Keep in mind, Chris Barker, Josh Boyce, Jonas Gray, Brandon Gibson, Robert McClain, and Antonio Johnson all started the first preseason game, too - it doesn't mean much that Roberts started. If they thought he'd be starting soon, they could have used IR-DTR.
 
On the other hand, they waited until the final cutdown to put him on IR, thus not exposing him to waivers. That tells me they like his future, at least enough to make sure they hold his rights for 2016 and beyond.

 

[dynomite]

Mike Reiss weighs in with potential trade targets: http://espn.go.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4786389/with-tarell-brown-on-ir-who-might-patriots-target-in-trade-at-cb

Pretty much just a stub, unfortunately, although I would expect a much more comprehensive article next week. He basically only lists two targets:

- Alterraun Verner, Bucs
- Marcus Cooper, Chiefs

Verner doesn't make much sense, as he's owed $6.5M+ in both '16 and '17.

Cooper is interesting: Rutgers, apparently Pats tried to claim him in '13 but Chiefs had priority. He's big (6'2") and really flashed in 2013 (PFF said he should be considered for DROY) but fell off, and has barely played on defense for the Chiefs this year.  Given Reid and Belichick's history, this one seems like a legitimate possibility in theory.
 

 

[Ed Hillel]

I agree with all of this. Keep in mind, Chris Barker, Josh Boyce, Jonas Gray, Brandon Gibson, Robert McClain, and Antonio Johnson all started the first preseason game, too - it doesn't mean much that Roberts started. If they thought he'd be starting soon, they could have used IR-DTR.
 

IR-DTR was out the window because of Stork's injury. Barker, Boyce, Gray, Gibson and Johnson all started because of injuries to other players, though Gibson may actually have been competing for starting time. Roberts was also getting first-team reps in the preseason and Loyko indicated that Roberts getting that start opposite Jordy Nelson was a sign that BB had been impressed with Roberts' camp. Reiss also mentioned that Roberts had been a standout before the injury.

As for not keeping Roberts on the roster, it wasn't really surprising given that Roberts is a rookie and still had a lot to prove, plus there was some veteran depth at the position. We're also talking about the second CB position here after a fairly significant dropoff from Butler, and it wouldn't surprise me if BB just didn't think it was worth playing a man down for 4+ regular season games to keep any of them. I do think though, that, if not starting, Roberts would have been getting some significant snaps. I have a difficult time believing BB would have been throwing Fletcher out there over him, for example, at least not for very long.

"On track to start" may have been overstating things, though. It's irrational, but he was my 2015 binky.

 

[Devizier]

Mike Reiss weighs in with potential trade targets: http://espn.go.com/blog/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4786389/with-tarell-brown-on-ir-who-might-patriots-target-in-trade-at-cb

Pretty much just a stub, unfortunately, although I would expect a much more comprehensive article next week. He basically only lists two targets:

- Alterraun Verner, Bucs
- Marcus Cooper, Chiefs

Verner doesn't make much sense, as he's owed $6.5M+ in both '16 and '17.
 

only 2m guaranteed, and it's tied to a roster bonus.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

only 2m guaranteed, and it's tied to a roster bonus.

The Chiefs CB to trade for is Sean Smith. Better player and UFA in 2016.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I thought the secondary played great Sunday night.  Four observations:
 
1) They really only played two corners, Butler and Ryan.  Justin Coleman got 18 snaps but most of them were in garbage time.  Harmon is really the nickel back for this team and even the fourth safety on the depth chart, Jordan Richards, got more snaps than Coleman. 
 
2) They mixed it up but Chung was frequently the safety that dropped into coverage lining up over a WR and usually he was on TY Hilton.  You wouldn't think that would be a good matchup based on quickness but Chung did a great job blowing up Hilton at the LOS and disrupting his routes.  That's good coaching to identify that as a surprisingly good matchup and obviously great execution by Chung.
 
3) We played a lot of zone, mostly with two deep safeties.  Everybody likes to criticize zone coverage when it doesn't work so we should give credit where credit is due, as the scheme really gave Luck trouble and largely took away the big play.   A safety pairing of McCourty and Harmon with Jamie Collins roaming in the middle has incredible range at key spots.
 
4) Ryan and Harmon have both turned into key players on this defense.  I like a Rutgers joke as much as the next guy but maybe BB knew what he was doing when he plucked them out of obscurity in the 2013 draft.