2017-18 NBA Regular Season Game/Observation Thread
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Warriors hot-headed PG Kevin Durant dished 14 of the team's 40 assists tonight before getting in the refs' faces and pretty much deliberately getting himself tossed. Draymond clearly a positive influence. ;-P
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Tom Brady cried on TV about being a 6th round draft pick despite the fact that he's won a bunch of Super Bowls made hundreds of millions of dollars and married a supermodel since. I'd say that's weirder.
In addition to the outstanding play, the Shakespearean drama is top notch in the NBA right now.
Fultz, IT and the Cavs, Celtics Culture, Ballers... these are amazing storylines that wouldn’t be plausible except for the fact that they are real. And then we get to watch games too!
Does the fact that the Cavs are a complete dumpster fire behind the scenes (and recently on the court) factor into LeBron's MVP consideration?
Also, there are all the stories about a group of Cavs players who apparently control things behind the scenes, whether that is the group of "prominent" players who called the media aside last week, or the people who called out Kevin Love. I mean read this:
Who are these people? I find it hard to believe it is IT, who just got there. I doubt it is Jose Calderon. That basically leaves, Wade, LeBron, JR or Tristan Thompson.
Also, there are all the stories about a group of Cavs players who apparently control things behind the scenes, whether that is the group of "prominent" players who called the media aside last week, or the people who called out Kevin Love. I mean read this:
Who are these people? I find it hard to believe it is IT, who just got there. I doubt it is Jose Calderon. That basically leaves, Wade, LeBron, JR or Tristan Thompson.
Might be IT. If the Cavs get bounced early, IT is going to have to settle for a make good contract.
edit: here's an interesting breakdown of some of the good and bad of IT being back. Did not know that the entire Cavs team is shooting poorly in 2018. https://www.fearthesword.com/2018/1/24/16924012/isaiah-thomas-return-breakdown. For example, in the last 12 games the Cavs have been 203-642 (31.6 percent) outside of the restricted area. By way of example, league average for three-point shooting alone is 36 percent. That's bad.
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I'm still a Kevin Love fan. Seems apparent that he just needs to get the hell away from that team. He has never seem to fit. Maybe the Love to LAL thing that was all the rage could actually happen.
Love to LAL
Caldwell Pope + Randle to CLE
Love to LAL
Caldwell Pope + Randle to CLE
There have been several reports indicating that IT and Wade led the meeting and subsequent burial of Love and that there is a divide between the new Cavs players and the ones that were there last season.
I know that Love is the scapegoat now and that Cleveland needs to make changes but I can’t see them moving him unless they get another All-Star back in return. Otherwise they’ll wait until the offseason and move him for picks.
Lolz, how much would Kevin Love kill to get out of Cleveland and into the warm embrace of the Splash Bros? Pick meeee, Steph!!!
I don’t envy the MVP voters their decision this season. Do you vote for the future first-ballot Hall of Famer having what may well end up being his best season (Harden), or do you vote for LeBron in what will likely be his last chance to win the award (because I don’t think he’ll go this hard for 82 games again)?
The "on the court" part has to be the key consideration — not just recently, but the Cavs now have a negative net rating for the season, and even more remarkably, have been significantly worse with LeBron on the court than off (-1.3 pts per 100 on, +3.2 off). Barring a massive turnaround over the final 35 games, those facts alone should be 100% dealbreakers, imho.
But yeah, to the extent that the on-court and off-court stuff is separable, the endless drama and negativity can't help his case, either. MVP voters like feel-good narratives, and the Cavs are working on the antithesis of that.
Then again, voters also like redemption stories, so if the King can somehow right the ship over the final 35 games and get them to 54 wins or something, that'd be a huge feather in his crown. Not holding my breath, though.
Similar to Kawhi last year, Lebron has been incredibly "unlucky" this year (third worst in the league) in terms of opponents' FT% and 3PT%, which is undoubtedly accounting for some of the on/off stuff we're seeing on defense for Lebron.
I would add Durant into the conversation as well, considering his scoring efficiency and impact on defense this season. Even if he isn't technically the most "valuable" player to his team, he has to be in the Top 3. Giannis and Curry would round out my top five in some order.
Fwiw, by B-R's MVP tracker, Harden is currently crushing the field, as he probably should be. KD, LeBron, Giannis are a distant #2-3-4.
I'd add Curry, Irving, Butler, DeRozan and maybe even CP3 as guys who could get there if Harden slips and/or they and their teams absolutely kill it over the final ~35 games.
I'd add Curry, Irving, Butler, DeRozan and maybe even CP3 as guys who could get there if Harden slips and/or they and their teams absolutely kill it over the final ~35 games.
See, I think it’s wide open after Harden and LBJ. The best player on the best team is always an MVP candidate, but I think that’s Curry, not KD. And I’m not sure I’d put either of them higher than Giannis, Towns, DeRozan, or even Kyrie on an MVP ballot. I could probably argue those guys from 3 to 8 in any order you like, except I think I’d be hard-pressed to put Kyrie higher than 5th or so.
If the season ended now, I'd put all those guys (plus Westbrook, Towns, AD, Boogie and possibly a couple others) ahead of LeBron. His individual numbers still look good, but bad luck or no, I don't see even a little bit of a case for a guy with a negative net rating for a negative team. Pretty sure there's no precedent for that, though I could be wrong.
Also, if trendlines are a factor it looks even worse, as over the past month or so the Cavs have been one of the 4-5 worst teams in the NBA, while LeBron (last I checked) had the single worst net plus-minus in the league over a pretty good stretch of games. And the gaudy shooting that I think was one of the pillars of his MVP case early on has fallen off across the board (fg%, 3fg% and ft%). Curry is now well ahead of him in both scoring volume (30.2 to 26.2 pts per 36) and scoring efficiency (.669 to .627 ts).
But again, there's still a lot of games left for LeBron and others to make a move.
Also, if trendlines are a factor it looks even worse, as over the past month or so the Cavs have been one of the 4-5 worst teams in the NBA, while LeBron (last I checked) had the single worst net plus-minus in the league over a pretty good stretch of games. And the gaudy shooting that I think was one of the pillars of his MVP case early on has fallen off across the board (fg%, 3fg% and ft%). Curry is now well ahead of him in both scoring volume (30.2 to 26.2 pts per 36) and scoring efficiency (.669 to .627 ts).
But again, there's still a lot of games left for LeBron and others to make a move.
I mean, the dude has played nearly 1700 minutes and during that time the other team has outscored his team by 29 points. How is that MVP worthy?
Almost all the other candidates (including a guy like Westbrook who plays for a pretty meh team) are well above +200.
I understand why you'd want to ignore my response to you earlier , but if you're really gonna rely so much on the on/off stuff you should at least try to grapple with his bad luck.
I mentioned it in passing earlier (“bad luck or no.”) I mean, I think it’s valid if we’re projecting him going forward — he’s almost certainly not a net negative player in a “real” sense — but I think it’s far less valid for a retrospective award like MVP. I just don’t being a negative for a negative team is remotely in the spirit of the award.
I also think it’s not out of the realm of possibility that there is at least something real going on. His D at age 33, for example, could really have fallen off a cliff, and that’s half the game. Or there could be something to the rumor that he’s been pounding the ball too much and stagnating the O (and turning it over at a career-high rate) in order to “hunt assists.”
Throughout his career (including last season) he’s always been a huge positive on the floor, generally top 2 or 3 in the league, even when his teammates have sucked. This season has been completely anomalous in that regard.
Of course, if his negative impact to date isn’t real, we should expect his plus-minus numbers to regress hard to his elite career norms. Hence the “if the season ended today” caveat. But if he somehow manages to finish the whole season as a net negative on a net negative team ... yeah, that doesn’t jibe even a little bit with what it means to me to be an MVP (or even an elite player).
Except that when he’s been on the bench, his team has been significantly better.
And that is because when he is on the bench, it is generally 2nd unit vs 2nd unit. I hope you can see that CLE starting 5 with someone not named named LeBron vs other teams starting 5 would be a significantly worse team.
Possibly, but they’ve also been shite with him (despite being built around his skillset). Call me crazy but I don’t think “his team is shite with him but even worse shite without him” is a resounding case for MVP.
Well I guess that is just a fundamental difference in how we look at it. Reminds me of the Mike Trout for MVP from the past several years. I think being a less shitty because of you is just as valuable.
Possibly? We're talking about arguably the greatest player in NBA history and you're citing random +/- numbers. There's just no argument here that you're making that can be close to reality for anyone who is serious. Sure, there can be a serious argument about a handful of players above possibly above him for MVP, but continuing to argue he's made his team worse is just silly.
Bad luck and line-up collinearity aside, I do suspect there's something going on with his defense, whether age or effort related. The Cavs defense has been substantially worse with him on the court, that's undeniable.
I mainly just wanted to explain why his defense likely isn't as bad as the on/off numbers say, but generally speaking I'm more than OK with this argument. Hell, I've been pushing it whenever anyone stans for Derozan, but no one ever wants to try to address why, for basically his entire career, his teams are better when he's off the court.
Ugly night for our favorite bad teams. Charlotte kept it close but lost to New Orleans. Meanwhile, Phoenix and Chicago got drilled, and Dallas, Atlanta, and Memphis are all getting drilled.
The only good result was Utah beating Detroit in OT for their 20th win.
The only good result was Utah beating Detroit in OT for their 20th win.
Yep, and I made it clear that what's happened (so far) this year is totally anomalous in his otherwise historically great career. We're talking about his 2017-18 MVP case, not his HOF case. And what's happening this season is happening at an age when the majority of NBA players start to decline.
They're not random; they're exactly how his team has done with him on the floor, in a non-trivial sample of 1700 minutes. How is that more "random" than any other number?
I never argued that he made his team worse — just noted the fact his team has been worse so far this season with him on the floor than on the bench. Obviously the "why" of that result requires more context and thought.
The "possibly" was in response to Moops' specific claim that the "CLE starting 5 with someone not named named LeBron vs other teams starting 5 would be a significantly worse team." That's a hypothetical, so "possibly" is entirely appropriate, imo. I don't think it's a 100% given that the Cavs would be significantly worse with Durant or Kawhi or Giannis or Davis (e.g.) in place of 33 y.o., regular season LeBron. (Edit: though, re-reading, if he was talking about someone on the Cavs' roster as opposed to anyone in the league, you can change "possible" to "highly probable.")
Anyway, I'm not sure we're really in disagreement if you're allowing that "there can be a serious argument about a handful of players above him for MVP." That's pretty different from an earlier claim that that position is "nuts."
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This is a cool new tool: https://fansided.com/2018/01/11/nylon-calculus-introducing-player-impact-plus-minus/
There's basically three components- a box score prior, luck-adjusted on/off data, and luck adjusted net rating- but read the piece more depth.
Here's the database:
There's a tab for rookies (spoiler: Tatum grades our really well, Semi, not so much) a separate trade machine linked in the article that's fun to play around with.
There's basically three components- a box score prior, luck-adjusted on/off data, and luck adjusted net rating- but read the piece more depth.
Here's the database:
There's a tab for rookies (spoiler: Tatum grades our really well, Semi, not so much) a separate trade machine linked in the article that's fun to play around with.
Thanks, DD! At a top line glance, I like it. 
LeBron currently at #28, even adjusted for bad luck and box score priors (where he obviously crushes it). The offense looks great — ahead of everyone except Curry, Harden and KD, which sounds about right — but his defensive impact this season has been more negative than anyone in the top 100, and more negative than anyone in the top 200 not named Lou Williams.
LeBron currently at #28, even adjusted for bad luck and box score priors (where he obviously crushes it). The offense looks great — ahead of everyone except Curry, Harden and KD, which sounds about right — but his defensive impact this season has been more negative than anyone in the top 100, and more negative than anyone in the top 200 not named Lou Williams.
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Yeah, I figured you might. Steph and Draymond are two of the more "probably shouldn't be surprising, but whoa!" guys on the sheet, particularly the multi-year stuff. I wonder what Steph's legacy looks like when all's said and done. He had his borderline GOAT season that elevated the conversation about him, but with his general consistency it seems like we almost take him for granted these days.Thanks, DD! At a top line glance, I like it.
LeBron currently at #28, even adjusted for bad luck and box score priors (where he obviously crushes it). The offense looks great — ahead of everyone except Curry, Harden and KD, which sounds about right — but his defensive impact this season has been more negative than anyone in the top 100, and more negative than anyone in the top 200 not named Lou Williams.
Yeah, I'm happy allowing that Trout is a pretty deserving MVP every season that he's healthy, but NBA MVP award is a much different animal, since an individual player has so much more control over his team's bottom line (i.e. W-L). By NBA tradition, being on a bad or even mediocre team is basically disqualifying for MVP, which I think is as it should be. LeBron in his early prime when he played both ends of the floor at a high level was still able to get some pretty garbage Cavs teams to 60 wins.
Also, IIRC, one of the typical arguments for Trout is that he's fantastic at everything, including baserunning and defense. What we've seen so far this season with LeBron is more like Trout if he were one of the worst defenders and baserunners in the league (and even then, I'm not sure baserunning and centerfield D in baseball is as important relative to hitting as wing defense is in hoops, though I bet one of you guys knows for sure.)
Edit: whoa, @DannyDarwinism, now I'm glad I gave that excellent chart at least a cursory glance, since all the players in the league seem to have suddenly morphed into Jrue Holiday.
Feel like I've mentioned this before, but just to update it with a larger sample size...
(Per 36 mins.)
2015-16 "GOAT" Curry: 31.7 pts on .669 true shooting / 5.7 reb / 7.0 ast / 3.5 tov
2017-18 current Curry: 30.2 pts on .669 true shooting / 5.7 reb / 7.1 ast / 3.3 tov
So yeah, I think we tend to take him for granted. I know shouldn't care what Rat-Faced Nick Wright says about anything, but a few days ago he shot down Curry's MVP case thusly: "Is he the best player in the league? No. Is he the most valuable player on his team? No. End of Story." I mean, talk about "begging the question"! (At least I think that's proper use of the phrase). Might as well say he's not the MVP because ... he's not the MVP.
I don't think he is wrong but that's the most negative light you could paint Curry in. It's not his fault he plays with Kevin Durant. Even then, he's probably top 5 in the MVP.
You are also using the phrase correctly.
Sacto wins by 1 at Miami. Very entertaining game. The winning basket was a put-back slam by De’Aaron Fox off a miss by Bogdanovic.
Kings were sporting some dope powder blue unis too.
Kings were sporting some dope powder blue unis too.
For those on mobile - from @anthonyVslater via Twitter: Steph Curry from 3 since returning from initial ankle injury: 61-of-122, 50 percent
Edit: This warrants commentary. I know I am lumped in with SRN for being a Warriors fanboy but it doesn't diminish the season that Curry is having. DD and SRN nailed it - any MVP mentions are warranted even if his injury and the presence of a super-team around him dilutes the argument in his favor.
Pretty sure on that play, the officials missed 5 calls in a matter of 5 seconds
1) a travel on Westbrook
2) a foul on Gortat (he grabbed Adams)
3) a foul on Adams (kicking Beal in the balls)
4) a travel on Beal
5) a travel on Adams
I am not excusing Draymond Green for his nut kicking/tapping ways but Steven Adams is and always has been a sneakily dirty player. There is a reason he gets into it with other players besides Green.
Anyone else having issues with @DannyDarwinism post up a few? Keeps failing to load here and creates a shitshow