2017 MLB HOF ballot released

[Papelbon's Poutine]

For what it's worth, I have stated earlier that the notion of trying to thread the needle (no pun intended) and determining who used, when they started using and whether they would have been a HoF player without PEDs is something of a fool's errand. And my hypothetical ballot includes both Bonds and Clemens.

Having said this, the proposition that "you can't prove that the PEDs helped him" (or anyone) is a tautology based on the fact that you will never make a statistical case either way until/unless you are able to nail down variables that are unknowable. (Who used, and precisely when they started.)

Thank you, this was the point of my questions asked to the particular poster earlier on, I just never got a chance to come back and make it (you probably said it more concisely than I would have anyway). I made a similar case a couple years ago in the HoF thread.

Short of them telling you, we will never know when they started using and there is no possible way to quantify the extent to which they helped. Trying to represent either is disingenuous and most likely driven by agenda.

I agree Bonds and Clemens are somewhat outliers, due to the factors you cite. But I also don't think the character clause should be pulled out by writers as they see fit - they just voted for a guy has fully admitted he used to play games with drugs on his person.

 

[FormerLurker]

When you think about it, the standard narrative on Bonds turns out to be kind of pro-Bonds - "I wanted to be clean, but those other cheaters who got away with it drove me to it!" To what degree that is actually true will likely never be fully known. But he did have a remarkable statistical spike around the time his use allegedly began.

 

[The Needler]

This is why I used HR/FB. You can't use HR/162 as your standard for a guy whose walk rate went from 16.8% through age 33 to 26.7% thereafter.

Look at AB/HR: 13.0 age 27-33, 9.2 thereafter.

Hank Aaron: 16.4 age 27-34, 11.8 from 35-39.

 

[Oppo]

If someone makes the argument that Bonds was a HoFer before using steroids so he should still be in, shouldn't they also make the same argument for Rose?

 

[moondog80]

If someone makes the argument that Bonds was a HoFer before using steroids so he should still be in, shouldn't they also make the same argument for Rose?

Apples and oranges. Nobody thinks Rose's betting give him an unfair advantage on the field, it was just a cardinal rule that he violated.

I am pro-Bonds/Clemens, anti-Rose, FWIW.

 

[VTSox]

If someone makes the argument that Bonds was a HoFer before using steroids so he should still be in, shouldn't they also make the same argument for Rose?

Rose negotiated his eligibility away

 

[Plympton91]

Steroids only became "cheating' because Reagan didn't like the Russians beating us in the Olympics.

Right. Nothing to do with the fact that they cause cancer, or stop the body's natural production causing you to need lifelong treatment. Allowing or winking at steroid use has massive negative externalities. It's not even in the same stratosphere as throwing spitballs or corking your bat.

 

[Marciano490]

Right. Nothing to do with the fact that they cause cancer, or stop the body's natural production causing you to need lifelong treatment. Allowing or winking at steroid use has massive negative externalities. It's not even in the same stratosphere as throwing spitballs or corking your bat.

Citations please?

 

[Plympton91]

Citations please?

Sure I'll see what I can find on google scholar. Are you an anti science, steroid effects denier? That knowledge would help refine the search.

 

[Marciano490]

No. I'd just like to see the evidence of increased risk with proper dosage. Doesn't even have to be a higher increase than smoking or drinking.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Hank Aaron: 16.4 age 27-34, 11.8 from 35-39.

A good comp. However, offensive context goes a lot farther toward explaining Aaron's spike than Bonds', and this becomes quickly apparent when you factor out home park (remember, Aaron moved in his 30s from a mediocre home run park to a place known as the Launching Pad).

I looked at Aaron's AB/HR in road parks from age 27 through 39, and then compared that to the road AB/HR split for the NL for those same years. Then I did the same thing for Bonds. Here's what the comparison looks like:



Here's a version using three-year averages to smooth the data out a bit:



Aaron declined only slightly, and then recovered; like Papi, he was able to maintain peak-level power production right through his late 30s, which is a remarkable achievement. But what Bonds did was something else entirely.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

No. I'd just like to see the evidence of increased risk with proper dosage. Doesn't even have to be a higher increase than smoking or drinking.

Make sure you hold your breath waiting for it from DH3.

 

[Oppo]

There are risks associated with all medications/supplements. You will rarely see something reported as it will cause X, almost always MAY cause or MAY increase risk, it's difficult to amass enough evidence to show a serious adverse drug event will occur. From the testosterone package insert:

Long term use (>10 years) of parenteral testosterone for male hypogonadism may increase the risk of breast cancer (Medras 2006).

Available studies are inconclusive regarding the risk of developing major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) such as nonfatal MI, stroke, or cardiovascular death following testosterone use. Some studies have suggested an increased risk of cardiovascular events among groups of men prescribed testosterone therapy (Basaria 2010; Finkle 2014; Vigen 2013). The Endocrine Society suggests it may be prudent to avoid testosterone therapy in men who have experienced a cardiovascular event (eg, MI, stroke, acute coronary syndrome) in the past six months (The Endocrine Society 2014).

May increase the risk of prostate cancer. Withhold therapy pending urological evaluation in patients with palpable prostate nodule or induration, PSA >4 ng/mL, or PSA >3 ng/mL in men at high risk of prostate cancer (Bhasin 2010).

Venous thromboembolic events, including deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE), have been reported with testosterone products.