2019 Pats: Ages and Roster Breakdowns

[bakahump]

With the Trade Deadline looming and the possibilities of extensions and trading Draft Picks I thought it might be interesting to look at the roster compared to the average age of an NFL player, their "contribution" (*) and position.

Here is my basic break down:
Avg Age or Below ('94+)
Butler DT *
Roberts LB *
Wise DT *
Johnson FB
Michel RB *
Wino Edge
Jackson CB *
Wynn T * ?
Izzo TE
Cowart DT
Frohodlt OG
Bentley LB *
Meyers WR
Gunner ST *
Harris Rb
Bailey P *
Williams CB
Harry WR

Slightly Older (93)
Jones CB *
Mason OG *
Shelton NT
King LB/ST *
Karras C
Dorsett WR *

Older (92-90)
Thuney G *
Lacosse TE
Andrews C * !
Tomlinson TE
Cardona ST *
White RB *
Van Noy LB *
Harmon S
Gilmore CB *
Burkhead RB *
Bethel ST
Guy DT *
Hightower LB *
Bolden ST *

Older ++ (88-89)
Collins LB *
Sanu WR
Ferentz C
Ebner ST *
Newhouse OT
Devlin
Cannon OT *

Older +++ (84-87)
Chung S *
Mccourty J CB *
Mccourty D S *
Edelman WR *
Slater ST *
Gost K *
Nugent K

Ancient
Watson TE

Ageless
Brady QB *

We can quibble over "Contribution". For instance Sanu should probably get an * for future and projected contribution, but as of yet has no or extremely little actual contribution. Same with someone like Shelton. While I get that he can be integral to a Game plan week to week overall I would not consider him a Core Player on the defense. Jakob Johnson/Devlin is a final example. JJ may slot in and take Devlins role moving forward. But in good conscientious I cant give either an * right now.

I also left some "Promise, but probably Chaff" off the list so far (Stidham being example 1A )

So in essence this is a Work in Progress that can change as players progress or decline.

Right now with our 11 (?) draft picks (post Sanu but pre anything else) we would need to Focus on Something like:

QB (Gotta be a High pick Unless we find the right guy around pick 200 or Stidham looks to be the Next Jimmy G)
S (Upper Mid Pick should have talent available)
CB (had Good luck with UDFAs, otherwise an upper round pick)
K (Lower round should get us a promising Rookie)
TE (upper Mid Pick should have talent available)
LB (High Pick)
ST (UDFAs and late round Picks)
C (Lower Mid pick could have talent available)
WR

As we have given up our 2nd for Sanu that leaves us with a 1st, 3 3's, a 4 and a bunch of 6-7s (I may be off by a pick or say based on missed transactions).

Qb - Round 1
LB- Round 3
TE- Round 3
S- Round 3
C- Round 4
K- Late round pick
CB- "UDFA" Flyer pick or 2 in the Late Rounds
ST- Late round pick

Obviously there is alot more to this "slotting" (BPA in BBs Opinion, Trades up or down, Injuries and contracts) but this gives us a sense of where we may need to allocate the resources we have.

Please feel free to add. I did not intend this as a "blue print" to the Offseason. Rather as a EARLY look of what we might need, what we might have and what could we "cash in now" as part of a trade without mortgaging the future.

 

[Saints Rest]

If the point of this thread is to discuss how our roster construction might factor into trade deadline discussion, then discussing how we will use next spring's draft picks seems premature.

If the point is to discuss next spring's draft, then I think this whole thread is premature as soooo much can and will happen between now and April.

But I think your opening sentence and the breakdown of players can yield some worthwhile discussion for the next 30 hours pre-deadline.

For example, the Pats current draft picks are heavy in rounds 3, 6, & 7. So those picks are more available for outgoing trades; while rounds 2, 4, & 5 are thin, so those could be in need of incoming picks. (It seems like every year, there is a deadline trade sending out someone who seems like a core player for draft picks in return so I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats are sellers as well as buyers this week.)

 

[BigSoxFan]

If the point of this thread is to discuss how our roster construction might factor into trade deadline discussion, then discussing how we will use next spring's draft picks seems premature.

If the point is to discuss next spring's draft, then I think this whole thread is premature as soooo much can and will happen between now and April.

But I think your opening sentence and the breakdown of players can yield some worthwhile discussion for the next 30 hours pre-deadline.

For example, the Pats current draft picks are heavy in rounds 3, 6, & 7. So those picks are more available for outgoing trades; while rounds 2, 4, & 5 are thin, so those could be in need of incoming picks. (It seems like every year, there is a deadline trade sending out someone who seems like a core player for draft picks in return so I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats are sellers as well as buyers this week.)

The seller comment is something we haven’t really discussed much yet although not sure I see many potential seller options outside of the “excess” young guys like Harris and Williams but we’re obviously counting on both guys in 2020 so not likely.

 

[bakahump]

@Saints Rest I hear ya. And as you point out this is kinda a holistic view of the roster for now, post Wednesday and into the off season. Which is tough because of so many variables.

Your point is exactly what I was trying to get it, in that we need to know what we have before we can realistically think about sending something else out.

For example OJHoward has been discussed. It may make sense to send a "high" (3rd) pick out for Howard as it matches up nicely with what we have (plenty of 3s) and a position of need NOW and for the future. A 3rd would also probably be the requisite pick needed for a rookie next year.

Obviously if he can be had for a 6th then all the better.

On the flip side, I dont think we can really in good conscience sends out something "high" for an OL. We really are in a ride or die situation with Wynn as the way to stabilize the OL. A Center might, MIGHT be another story. Depending on what the meds say about a possible come back next year. But the problem we all know with that, is that there simply arent any young decent centers available via trade. So that replacement probably rolls into next years draft as a late round pick.

The true sword of Damocles is Brady and WhTF we get to replace him. Until we do have an idea or realistic candidate in house, we basically have to slot one of our high picks (perhaps even the #1 year over year) as taking the BQBA and hope one eventually sticks.

 

[Saints Rest]

The seller comment is something we haven’t really discussed much yet although not sure I see many potential seller options outside of the “excess” young guys like Harris and Williams but we’re obviously counting on both guys in 2020 so not likely.

I went back to look at past years' in-season "seller" trades (wherein a player went outbound from the Pats in return for incoming draft picks). Here's what I found:

• 2017 -- Jimmy G for a 2nd
• 2016 -- Jamie Collins for a 3rd
• 2010 -- Laurence Maroney (and a 6th) for a 4th
• 2010 -- Randy Moss (and a 7th) for a 3rd
• 2006 -- Deion Branch for a 1st

I think my memory was colored by some notable training camp trades: Seymour, Mankins, et al.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I went back to look at past years' in-season "seller" trades (wherein a player went outbound from the Pats in return for incoming draft picks). Here's what I found:

• 2017 -- Jimmy G for a 2nd
• 2016 -- Jamie Collins for a 3rd
• 2010 -- Laurence Maroney (and a 6th) for a 4th
• 2010 -- Randy Moss (and a 7th) for a 3rd
• 2006 -- Deion Branch for a 1st

I think my memory was colored by some notable training camp trades: Seymour, Mankins, et al.

Interesting. Looks like we really don't trade out of excess during the year and it's really just a performance, contract, behavior, etc. issue. In theory, the secondary has some talent they could deal for picks, like JoeJuan or JC Jackso,n but trading them obviously doesn't make sense when you're sitting here at 8-0 with a historic defense being the main reason for it and showdowns with KC, Houston, Dallas, etc. coming.

 

[Saints Rest]

Bennett May have already been the guy who fits that bill this year.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

@Saints Rest I hear ya. And as you point out this is kinda a holistic view of the roster for now, post Wednesday and into the off season. Which is tough because of so many variables.

Your point is exactly what I was trying to get it, in that we need to know what we have before we can realistically think about sending something else out.

For example OJHoward has been discussed. It may make sense to send a "high" (3rd) pick out for Howard as it matches up nicely with what we have (plenty of 3s) and a position of need NOW and for the future. A 3rd would also probably be the requisite pick needed for a rookie next year.

Obviously if he can be had for a 6th then all the better.

On the flip side, I dont think we can really in good conscience sends out something "high" for an OL. We really are in a ride or die situation with Wynn as the way to stabilize the OL. A Center might, MIGHT be another story. Depending on what the meds say about a possible come back next year. But the problem we all know with that, is that there simply arent any young decent centers available via trade. So that replacement probably rolls into next years draft as a late round pick.

The true sword of Damocles is Brady and WhTF we get to replace him. Until we do have an idea or realistic candidate in house, we basically have to slot one of our high picks (perhaps even the #1 year over year) as taking the BQBA and hope one eventually sticks.

I don’t understand this last paragraph. Are you suggesting the Pats should default take the next QB on their board at the end of round one even if that next highest QB on their board has something like a 3rd round grade?

I understand that the QB position is different and has more of a direct correlation to team success than any other position but we also have 20 years of the Belichick drafting experience that suggests they will not operate like this. The concept of trying to map any particular position of need to a specific round of the draft seems extremely misguided and detached from an extensive set of data points about how this team approaches the draft.

In the drafts leading up to Brady’s end and the first post Brady draft I wholly expect the Pats will draft the best player available at one of their position of relative need early in the draft and just the best player available regardless of position as the draft continues. If they really like a QB they will move up to get one at or near the right value in the draft. I’d be shocked if they significantly reached (from their own draft rankings not the generic media rankings) for a QB just to fill a need.

 

[bakahump]

I am not saying that they automatically pick a QB regardless of "rating". But I am saying that the ""normal" BB way of running the draft may have to be slightly adjusted.

Say there is a QB who is "ranked" as 38th overall. Assume he too is high (though not the highest... say 4th) on the Patriots board (which is what matters). Say the Pats are picking 27th. With a player ranked 18th still on the board. Assume that player is Highest on the Patriot board.

If a scenario like that played out they have to pull the trigger on a talented QB prospect, as opposed to a 5-10 year starter at LB.


Basically the QB position has to be worth a "bump" on the Patriots board over more talented players due to the fact you are not going to be able to find a solution in FA, Trade or UDFA. Whereas a Lineman, LB Cb etc etc there is a not unlikely option to fill those positions with quality other ways.

We are entering uncharted Draft Territory so 20 years really has little bearing imho. He has had the opportunity to hunt and peck backup/successor QBs because he was set. He could afford to wait on "a Jimmy G" and gamble on trading up or down because the position was set. If they have guy they like he has to take them when he can. If he gambles and loses out on a trade partner then thats lost seasons.

I believe His normal practices may need to be adjusted because he understands how important the Qb position is, and we no longer have the benefit of time But we can certainly disagree.

All this is moot if you think that BB would tank for a year. But I think we all are on the same page with that.

 

[SMU_Sox]

This isn’t the NBA where it’s 5:5. Tanking is not a viable strategy in the NFL. Belichick would never tank. Culture is so important to Belichick and tanking goes against good culture. It won’t happen.
Edit: nvm we are on the same page.