2019 Playoff Seeding and Home Field Advantage Watch

[tims4wins]

I don't know about the task being tougher. The defense didn't have a great night but it is worlds better than any of the Pats defenses since about 2004. Denver won it all in 2015 with a corpse at QB. Their D played other worldly, that is kind of the blueprint. They did have a better running game though.

Bottom line is you can't throw picks on your own 20 yard line and give up free TDs. The Pats may very well have still lost last night but this team can't afford those types of mistakes.

 

[Shaky Walton]

I don't know about the task being tougher. The defense didn't have a great night but it is worlds better than any of the Pats defenses since about 2004. Denver won it all in 2015 with a corpse at QB. Their D played other worldly, that is kind of the blueprint. They did have a better running game though.

Bottom line is you can't throw picks on your own 20 yard line and give up free TDs. The Pats may very well have still lost last night but this team can't afford those types of mistakes.

The defense fared poorly in both losses.

The results were clearly worse against the Ravens but 28 points is still enough to make winning difficult.

My point is that I agree that this D looks better but the performance against these two teams was far from elite, and calls into at least some question how it will fare against the quality of opponents the Pats will face in January and hopefully February.

 

[dcmissle]

The defense fared poorly in both losses.

The results were clearly worse against the Ravens but 28 points is still enough to make winning difficult.

My point is that I agree that this D looks better but the performance against these two teams was far from elite, and calls into at least some question how it will fare against the quality of opponents the Pats will face in January and hopefully February.

You are on point. This defense is not “85 good (Bears) or “00 good (Ravens), as some were strongly intimating in that defense thread that used to be so active but isn’t anymore. They are not good enough, for example, to drag a team to a 2-3 record when 5 games in a row the offense does not score a TD. Last night was an occasion for that sort of defense to drag the team’s ass across the line. The defense did not post.

 

[54thMA]

When it comes to this team/coach/QB, HFA in the playoffs is not super critical IMO, they went into Pittsburg twice and beat the Steelers, last year they won in Kansas City. The only year it mattered was 2015 when they had to go to Denver, crowd noise was a huge factor in that game and had they played that game in Foxboro, they would have found a way to win, they almost pulled it out as it was.

I trust that Belichick will come up with something to baffle Jackson should the Patriots play the Ravens in the AFCCG. What he did last year in KC and in the SB from a defensive standpoint is legendary, as in the game plan for the Giants/Bills Super Bowl.

He is a defensive genius and I fully believe he will solve the Jackson riddle.

Brady is struggling, that is for sure, but I also believe he'll figure it out.

After the last 19 years, I have grown not to doubt this team/coach/QB.

Time will tell.

 

[[icon]]

IMO We need to solve for at least 2 of the following before the playoffs:

1) Brady must make significant chemistry improvements with at LEAST 1 of Harry/Sanu/Myers. Ideally 2. (My Confidence C+)
2) LaCosse must make a decent leap in capability/utility as an offensive weapon (even possible with line woes). (My Confidence D)
3) Bill must solve for Lamar Jackson / Baltimore Offense with a defensive scheme (My Confidence B+)

 

[NomarsFool]

Did they actually play more zone last night against the Texans than they had in recent games, or did it just seem like it because the Texans were beating the zone a lot when they did it?

 

[Super Nomario]

1) Brady must make significant chemistry improvements with at LEAST 1 of Harry/Sanu/Myers. Ideally 2. (My Confidence C+)
2) LaCosse must make a decent leap in capability/utility as an offensive weapon (even possible with line woes). (My Confidence D)

Why are you framing #1 as a Brady/chemistry issue and #2 as a talent/capability issue? Couldn't you just as easily frame it as "Harry / Meyers / Sanu must learn the offense" or "Harry needs to learn to consistently separate" or "all these guys need to catch the ball better"? (Or alternately, why couldn't it be a chemistry issue with LaCosse, who after all has only been intermittently available.)

 

[[icon]]

Why are you framing #1 as a Brady/chemistry issue and #2 as a talent/capability issue? Couldn't you just as easily frame it as "Harry / Meyers / Sanu must learn the offense" or "Harry needs to learn to consistently separate" or "all these guys need to catch the ball better"? (Or alternately, why couldn't it be a chemistry issue with LaCosse, who after all has only been intermittently available.)

Tomayto, Tomahto.

Semantics aside: Those areas need signifcant improvement or we're dead in the AFC Playoff waters, IMO. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Valek123]

Tomayto, Tomahto.

Semantics aside: Those areas need signifcant improvement or we're dead in the AFC Playoff waters, IMO. I hope I'm wrong.

As I look at the remaining schedule with the injuries I see a very clear possibility of 2-2 and ending the season at 12-4.
KC looks like an absolute disaster at this point the odds have to be in the Chiefs favor unless the D is able to get through the flu and the offense put up 28+ points.
Cincinnati - W.
Buffalo - L Allen is coming into his own, and we'll need to score 21+ to win this game. Will the receivers and Brady get on the same page between KC & Buffalo? This week vs Baltimore may tell us all we need to know about the Bills if they beat the Ravens and win this game they will be the top team in the east. Odds aren't good, but these aren't Rexy's Bills.
Miami - W.

The injuries are just adding up and the weapons are not there, Brady can not carry an offense by himself at this point and it seems like every time a question is finally answered(Wynn returns) another opens(Center again).

This may just not be our year, or Sanu and Harry catch fire - McDaniels figures out the way and they roll into the playoffs on fire as history has proven they can do. If they pull this one off it's going to be one of the least probable ever in this run, and one of the most impressive given how they look after week 13.

 

[wilked]

Even with 12-4... they likely win the division on a tiebreak (presuming a Bills loss vs Baltimore)
and they still get a bye unless Texans win last 4 games or Chiefs win the three non-Pats games

All told they are set up well to take on a little adversity - they have time to figure it out. Lots of things would have to go against them beyond them losing to Chiefs and Bills to give up the 2 seed.

 

[BaseballJones]

I put it upwards of 90% that they get at least the #2 seed. Then a home playoff game which usually means good things for them. Then they’d be right back in the AFCCG, and if it’s in Baltimore yes it’ll be super hard. But who here wouldn’t take our chances with that?

If they lose, they lose, oh well. I’d love another shot at the Ravens.

 

[dcmissle]

Will be rooting for Bal > Buf next weekend because I think we are closer to losing the division than capturing the #1 seed.

 

[Number45forever]

Fuck that noise. If the Pats beat Buffalo at home, the division is ours. If the Pats can't beat Buffalo at home, they don't deserve to win the division.

This week, go Bills. Let's get the 1 seed.

 

[InstaFace]

Absolutely. The goal of the season, with Brady under center and Belichick on the sideline, is not to merely maximize chances of securing a precious division championship. It's to stop the Ravens from prying the AFC title from our cold, dead hands, and maybe win another Lombardi (which would be the first back-to-back for anyone since 2003-2004, btw). What maximizes the chances of that? Buffalo beating Baltimore. Does that cost us a percentage point or two of expected division equity? Sure. But that's pocket change for this team.

We will never see this run of success again, and when it's over it's gonna get ugly. Gotta root for our path to a title while we have one. Can't be afraid of the likes of the Bills when our targets are the top teams in the NFL.

 

[loshjott]

I put it upwards of 90% that they get at least the #2 seed. Then a home playoff game which usually means good things for them. Then they’d be right back in the AFCCG, and if it’s in Baltimore yes it’ll be super hard. But who here wouldn’t take our chances with that?

If they lose, they lose, oh well. I’d love another shot at the Ravens.

And of course the week off with the #2 seed is huge.

This season is shaping up as either a 2015 or 2018 vibe with Pats as #2 going on the road for the AFCCG. I know which one I'm hoping for.

 

[tims4wins]

The Bills ain't coming to Foxboro on December 21 and winning if the division is still up for grabs. Just no fucking way.

 

[ilol@u]

Hoping that Houston can continue to win and lock up the #3 seed. The #2Patriots playing KC in the divisional and potentially @ Baltimore in the AFCCG is absolutely brutal.

Hope Buffalo beats Baltimore this week.

 

[BaseballJones]

The Bills ain't coming to Foxboro on December 21 and winning if the division is still up for grabs. Just no fucking way.

A-MEN. Not saying *impossible*, but I just don't see it. The Pats are gonna be the #2 seed.

 

[Saints Rest]

IIRC, the 2008 Patriots are the only team to Winn 11 games and end up a Wild Card.

This season, there is the distinct possibility that as many as two teams could win 13 games and end up as WCs.

 

[Super Nomario]

IIRC, the 2008 Patriots are the only team to Winn 11 games and end up a Wild Card.

This season, there is the distinct possibility that as many as two teams could win 13 games and end up as WCs.

The 2008 Patriots didn't even make the playoffs with 11 wins, which IIRC has only happened one other team.

11-win wild card teams are pretty common; there is one or two every year. The Chargers were a 12-4 WC team just last year. I don't believe there's been a 13-win WC team in the current format.

 

[Saints Rest]

The 2008 Patriots didn't even make the playoffs with 11 wins, which IIRC has only happened one other team.

11-win wild card teams are pretty common; there is one or two every year. The Chargers were a 12-4 WC team just last year. I don't believe there's been a 13-win WC team in the current format.

I knew that and then typed the wrong thing. I thought they were the only team to miss playoffs in the 2 WC era with 11 wins.

 

[[icon]]

Fuck that noise. If the Pats beat Buffalo at home, the division is ours. If the Pats can't beat Buffalo at home, they don't deserve to win the division.

This week, go Bills. Let's get the 1 seed.

I like the cut of your jib. Strap em on and aim for the summit.

 

[InstaFace]

Here's the full data on playoff-team records by seed and year. XLS available if you PM me your email address, but I can't upload an XLS here.

To confirm:
- The average wins of a WC team in the 32-team era is 10.22.
- There have been 8 WC teams with a 12-4 record (7 in the AFC, 1 in the NFC in 2013)
- There have been only 3 WCs at 8-8, all in the NFC: 2 in 2004, 1 in 2006, none since
- Of the 57 teams at 9-7 in this era, 12 became WCs, 9 won divisions without a bye, and 36 were left out of the playoffs (57%)
- By comparison, 86% of the 59x 10-6 teams make the playoffs, roughly half as WCs and half as seeds 3/4. 1 even got a bye.

 

[BusRaker]

Is it just me or have we been blessed with some great match-ups weeks 13 and 14? Meetings of teams currently 8-4 or better:

Week 13
Pats - Texans
Ravens - 49ers
Vikings - Seachickens

Week 14
Ravens - Bills
Chiefs - Pats
49ers - Saints

Week 15
Dog shit week. Best game is probably Buffalo - Pitt

Week 16
Bills - Pats
Pack - Vikings

Week 17
Sea Chickens - 49ers

 

[j-man]

as a outsider here u are going at least 13-3 and 14-2 if u beat KC
if u get HFA over Balt u win that game if u have to go there they win

honesly Balt/is50/50 HOME or AWAY your toughest game wouild be sb 54
NO can put up 28+ Sea can grind u down and win in the 4th q and SF pass rush could force brady into a early int giving SF a easy early score

 

[RedOctober3829]

This game is huge for the 2 seed. A lot of simulations on the playoff machine have the Pats losing the 2 seed if they lose this game.

 

[BigSoxFan]

This game is huge for the 2 seed. A lot of simulations on the playoff machine have the Pats losing the 2 seed if they lose this game.

How so? A loss gives the Pats 3 losses. KC and Houston have 4 and Buffalo could be joining them this weekend. So, 2 seed only goes if they lose another, which feels unlikely.

 

[RedOctober3829]

How so? A loss gives the Pats 3 losses. KC and Houston have 4 and Buffalo could be joining them this weekend. So, 2 seed only goes if they lose another, which feels unlikely.

Sorry, should have included that I ran simulations that had them losing this weekend and then to Buffalo and finishing at 12-4. Losing to KC would have them not in control of any tiebreakers with the teams they are fighting for HFA with.

 

[BigJimEd]

Sorry, should have included that I ran simulations that had them losing this weekend and then to Buffalo and finishing at 12-4. Losing to KC would have them not in control of any tiebreakers with the teams they are fighting for HFA with.

So by lot of simulations you mean if the Patriots lose the next 2 and KC wins out.

Certainly a possibility and has been discussed. From a Pats perspective if they win one of the next two they are in good shape.

 

[RedOctober3829]

So by lot of simulations you mean if the Patriots lose the next 2 and KC wins out.

Certainly a possibility and has been discussed. From a Pats perspective if they win one of the next two they are in good shape.

Also Ran some simulations that also netted the Patriots the 4 seed playing Buffalo and also netted the Patriots the 3 seed playing Pittsburgh. Lot of football left to be played still. Houston still has Tennessee twice which should be tougher games for them.

The good thing is that if the Pats do lose this game and to Buffalo but win the other 2 and Buffalo loses one so both finish 12-4 the Pats win the tiebreaker for the division.

 

[BigJimEd]

Yes, plenty of football to go. And as discussed up thread, the Balt @Buff game this weekend is a bit of a litmus test for Patriots fans.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

CIN & MIA are going to be wins unless catastrophe strikes. So handle Buffalo and the bye is ours, worst case.

and really, Buffalo shouldn't be able to score more than 13 points at Foxboro. I'm not really concerned about the game unless we suddenly can't score a TD at all. we'll know more in two weeks' time how that is shaping up

 

[DeadlySplitter]

in light of today's unfortunate results, it's time to look at the division tiebreakers.

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games (games played against the same opponents).
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

If Bills & Pats finish 12-4 (requiring a Bills win on 12/21):
-1-1 head to head
-5-1 division
-Bills lost to Philly, Baltimore, Cleveland, and us. Pats lost to Baltimore, Houston, KC, and Bills. Pats win the tiebreaker.

So we just need to win against two horrible teams to clinch. the issue now is if KC wins out, our bye is in jeopardy. the Chiefs have DEN, @CHI, SD left.

the Texans thankfully laid a giant egg today and will be on a dogfight for their division.

today basically pushed this divisional playoff matchup much closer to reality: a rematch of today, 3 KC vs 2 NE.

 

[BaseballJones]

AFC
1. Bal 11-2 - almost certainly has the #1 seed clinched
2. NE 10-3 - at Cin, vs Buf, vs Mia
3. KC 9-4 - H2H over NE, vs Den, at Chi, vs LAC - I imagine they'll finish 12-4
4. Hou 8-5 - at Ten, at TB, vs Ten
5. Buf 9-4 - at Pit, at NE, vs NYJ - don't see them running the table
6. Pit 8-5 - vs Buf, at NYJ, at Bal - probably finishes 10-6 or 9-7
- - -
7. Ten 8-5 - vs Hou, vs NO, at Hou - very tough road to end the season

NFC
1. SF 11-2 - vs Atl, vs LAR, at Sea
2. GB 10-3 - vs Chi, at Min, at Det
3. NO 10-3 - vs Ind, at Ten, at Car
4. Dal 6-7 - vs LAR, at Phi, vs Was - game at Philly is gonna be enormous
5. Sea 10-2 - at LAR, at Car, vs Ari, vs SF
6. Min 9-4 - at LAC, vs GB, vs Chi

So the task for New England is:
(1) Win all three games and lock up the #2 seed and HFA in the divisional round.
(2) Get the offense on track, at least such so that if they hold an offensive juggernaut like KC to a mere 23 points, it should be a win.
(3) Get/stay healthy.

I see the playoff matchups being:
AFC
WC: Pit at KC (KC will win the game); Buf at Hou (could go either way; whoever wins goes to Baltimore)
Div: KC at NE; Buf/Hou at Bal

NFC
WC: Min at NO; Sea at Dal/Phi
Div: Not sure because I could see Min beating NO, and the re-seeding makes it difficult to predict the next round

I'd love to see in the NFC Divisional round the matchups being Sea at SF and NO at GB.

 

[j-man]

AFC
1. Bal 11-2 - almost certainly has the #1 seed clinched
2. NE 10-3 - at Cin, vs Buf, vs Mia
3. KC 9-4 - H2H over NE, vs Den, at Chi, vs LAC - I imagine they'll finish 12-4
4. Hou 8-5 - at Ten, at TB, vs Ten
5. Buf 9-4 - at Pit, at NE, vs NYJ - don't see them running the table
6. Pit 8-5 - vs Buf, at NYJ, at Bal - probably finishes 10-6 or 9-7
- - -
7. Ten 8-5 - vs Hou, vs NO, at Hou - very tough road to end the season

NFC
1. SF 11-2 - vs Atl, vs LAR, at Sea
2. GB 10-3 - vs Chi, at Min, at Det
3. NO 10-3 - vs Ind, at Ten, at Car
4. Dal 6-7 - vs LAR, at Phi, vs Was - game at Philly is gonna be enormous
5. Sea 10-2 - at LAR, at Car, vs Ari, vs SF
6. Min 9-4 - at LAC, vs GB, vs Chi

So the task for New England is:
(1) Win all three games and lock up the #2 seed and HFA in the divisional round.
(2) Get the offense on track, at least such so that if they hold an offensive juggernaut like KC to a mere 23 points, it should be a win.
(3) Get/stay healthy.

I see the playoff matchups being:
AFC
WC: Pit at KC (KC will win the game); Buf at Hou (could go either way; whoever wins goes to Baltimore)
Div: KC at NE; Buf/Hou at Bal

NFC
WC: Min at NO; Sea at Dal/Phi
Div: Not sure because I could see Min beating NO, and the re-seeding makes it difficult to predict the next round

I'd love to see in the NFC Divisional round the matchups being Sea at SF and NO at GB.

AFC 1 BALT Agree
2 NE will win out
3 KC will win out or lose to CHI
4 Tenn they get the 4 they are hot now and shouild get to 10-6
5 Pitt will get to ten at least
6 Buff/hou buff has tiebreaker over hou

nfc
1 SEA/SF/NO
2 NO/GB
3 GB/NO
4 PHILLY
5 SF/SEA
6 MINN

 

[InstaFace]

If Bills & Pats finish 12-4 (requiring a Bills win on 12/21):
-1-1 head to head
-5-1 division
-Bills lost to Philly, Baltimore, Cleveland, and us. Pats lost to Baltimore, Houston, KC, and Bills. Pats win the tiebreaker.

*thinks* It's common games at that point, right? And all games except HOU / KC (for us) and TEN / DEN (for them) are common. Okay, I think I got it - original analysis from a week or two ago assumed this would involve Buffalo beating Baltimore and NE beating *one* of HOU/KC. In which case it goes to conference record, and then their Philly loss is better than one of our AFC losses, so they'd take it. But right now, we've beaten two teams they haven't (CLE, PHI) and they haven't beaten anyone we haven't.

The real fun is, how might Pittsburgh factor into the AFC playoff picture? They've had quite the season since plowing under the Roethlisberger tree. 8-5 and tied for the 6 seed with TEN.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

right, it would be common opponent record, and Bills have lost 2 games to teams we beat while we lost to the 2 teams the Bills will not play (all teams in a division have the exact same schedule except for 2 games).

 

[tims4wins]

I thought AFC record comes before common opponents?

Edit just looked it up I was wrong

 

[[icon]]

This team feels like a first round loss in the playoffs right now. Just brutal.

 

[BaseballJones]

This team feels like a first round loss in the playoffs right now. Just brutal.

Yes. And at the same time it feels (to me anyway) like a team that nobody will want to play because (1) still elite defense that can make plays, (2) they still have Tom F-ing Brady, (3) they still have Bill Belichick, and (4) their first playoff game will likely be at Gillette.

It's still gonna take a humongous effort to beat this team in Foxboro in the playoffs, and I think everyone knows that.

 

[Nator]

This team feels like a first round loss in the playoffs right now. Just brutal.

Well, hopefully they hang onto the bye week and that won't be a problem.

 

[DJnVa]

This team feels like a first round loss in the playoffs right now. Just brutal.

Pats likely won't play in first round, and then it's going to be KC coming back for a rematch.

 

[BlackJack]

I just went to ESPN's playoff machine and based on the default projections they have the Pats as the #1 seed.

It is moderately insane to me that they would have their default projection being that Baltimore loses out from here.

 

[InstaFace]

I just went to ESPN's playoff machine and based on the default projections they have the Pats as the #1 seed.

It is moderately insane to me that they would have their default projection being that Baltimore loses out from here.

Home vs NYJ: 85% win
Away at CLE: 75% win
Home vs PIT: 70% win

What the hell is ESPN's default projections method, the preferred results of the residents of Bristol CT?

edit: either that, or the next episode of ESPN's reality TV show is that Lamar Jackson gets injured, and someone released the website code too early.

 

[BaseballJones]

I just went to ESPN's playoff machine and based on the default projections they have the Pats as the #1 seed.

It is moderately insane to me that they would have their default projection being that Baltimore loses out from here.

That had to be all set in the computer model before the season began, when people had high hopes for the Jets and Browns, the Steelers had Roethlisberger, and the Ravens weren't expected to be nearly this good.

 

[BlackJack]

Home vs NYJ: 85% win
Away at CLE: 75% win
Home vs PIT: 70% win

What the hell is ESPN's default projections method, the preferred results of the residents of Bristol CT?

edit: either that, or the next episode of ESPN's reality TV show is that Lamar Jackson gets injured, and someone released the website code too early.

My bad - they have them beating the Jets so losing 2/3 not losing out. Still projecting loses to both PIT and CLE is nuts.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I just went to ESPN's playoff machine and based on the default projections they have the Pats as the #1 seed.

It is moderately insane to me that they would have their default projection being that Baltimore loses out from here.

Maybe you hit something? I just went there - http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine - and using Home, Away, Offense, or Defense as the standard, they all have BAL as the 1 seed.

 

[BlackJack]

Maybe you hit something? I just went there - http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine - and using Home, Away, Offense, or Defense as the standard, they all have BAL as the 1 seed.

Nope.

Google search on terms: ESPN playoff machine, click on the '2019 NFL Playoff Machine' link as shown in the screen shot below. Granted, I clicked on the sub-header that is to the left of the '2018 NFL Playoff Machine' link. Trying it again just now, the top 'main' link shows Baltimore as the #1 but the lower link shows the Pats. There is a ton of tracking crap in the link so maybe there's a cookie somewhere that has me marked as a Pats fan? I dunno.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Nope.

Google search on terms: ESPN playoff machine, click on the '2019 NFL Playoff Machine' link as shown in the screen shot below. Granted, I clicked on the sub-header that is to the left of the '2018 NFL Playoff Machine' link. Trying it again just now, the top 'main' link shows Baltimore as the #1 but the lower link shows the Pats. There is a ton of tracking crap in the link so maybe there's a cookie somewhere that has me marked as a Pats fan? I dunno.

View attachment 27388

When I clicked through the link admittedly I got a weird result (had BAL as third seed) but when I chose one of the criteria, I got what is in the spoiler. Are you are getting something different?

Spoiler: Offensive Rank

 

[BlackJack]

When I clicked through the link admittedly I got a weird result (had BAL as third seed) but when I chose one of the criteria, I got what is in the spoiler. Are you are getting something different?

No that’s the same thing I’m getting. It’s just on the initial visit. Once I select any of the options it goes with Baltimore as the #1.
It’s just weird that anything would result in showing them as the #3 seed without having been manipulated to get that.