I've had this thread in my head for a few months now after speaking with some friends about how concerned I am about City and getting a surprised reaction from them. This could have gone in the "How do you feel about your club" thread but this is going to end up being a few thousand words and so I figured I'd make a City thread to properly document either my tremendous clarity as an astute observer of the beautiful game or my completely spineless lack of faith in a tremendous side. I tried to hold off as long as I could because the transfer window could change a lot but the season has started and the warning signs cannot be ignored. This isn't a result of just a bad loss yesterday, more the overall trend of the team and squad.
The gist of it goes like this: I think City are going to be locked in a battle for the CL spots this year and am worried could fall out. I don't believe City will be making a serious title challenge -- that's a complete write off in my head already absent some major movement in the last week of the window.
So how does one of the richest teams in the world managed by one of the best in the world lose its way? To me there are three aspects of this: Recruitment, Tactics, and Preparation
Manchester City have spent an enormous amount of money in the transfer market -- there is no denying this. My gripe with City's recruitment over the entirety of Txiki Begiristan's time is that in spite of the reputation of City as being this evil market manipulator who buys success City have largely been value hunters in the transfer market. City's recruitment early in Sheikh Mansour's ownership provided the backbone of a squad which won many trophies: Silva, Kompany, Aguero, Fernandinho, Kompany, Yaya. Later others like Nasri and Sterling were added to the mix. Some of these players were purchased cheap and developed into stars but City were generally speaking shopping at the top end of the transfer market and buying difference makers at relatively high cost. As Txiki took over, they shifted to buying complementary players and of course De Bruyne. This resulted in a lot of money spent on fullbacks, wingers, centerbacks to cover for Kompany's injuries, etc. But the scouting and negotiation teams generally let City down: Mangala was a disaster at big money, Bony completely failed, Stones was purchased to grow into the CB role and quickly failed, Jesus Navas, Nolito, Javi Garcia, Fernando, etc. Probably just as bad is the list of targets City identified and then got outbid on who also all turned out to be mediocre or outright failures: Jorginho, Fred, Alexis, Maguire, Bonucci just off the top of my head. Where City have spent, the pattern of not exactly hitting homeruns has continued: Rodri looks like another failure, Mendy is already another failure, Mahrez has had OK stats but has added nothing to the team with the added bonus of (along with pursuit of Sanchez) convincing Jadon Sancho that he had no future at City, so he moved at low money to Dortmund and immediately became a star. I already mentioned Stones but he's become a mess off the pitch and on. Gundogan was hurt when we bought him and is a shadow of the player he was at Dortmund. And so on. But it isn't like the absolute top tier of talent hasn't moved in the last 5 years: Ronaldo, Neymar, Mbappe all moved and City's financial advantage wasn't even in play. City were outbid by Atletico on Felix. Pogba went to United. De Ligt to Juve and De Jong to Barca. My central thesis here is that City have had an absolutely atrocious run of talent identification aside from KDB, Laporte, and probably Bernardo. The vast majority of targets have been mediocre or bad. When the time has come to pay up and buy the best, City have been outbid by rivals, and I'd be more upset by that if those players hadn't also turned out to be mediocre players. But then City have often retreated to players in Spain with buyout clauses or deals where they could spend less than what a top player would cost at the position hoping to recreate the KDB transfer over and over again. The problem is that KDB just happens to be a stud and most "value" players won't make that leap.
Then you get into the selling. The theoretical upside of buying a cut below the top end is that you should be able to move players on who you purchased. Instead, City have consistently held onto players too long and sold below value compared to rivals. Otamendi is finally being sold in a sketchy financial deal to offset the cost of Ruben Dias (a player I like but again a player purchased because preferred targets were too expensive). But Otamendi stopped being a regular starter multiple seasons ago and has hung on the wage bill and devalued as an asset. Mendy showed up and got immediately hurt but has spent multiple seasons trying to regain the form that got him purchased to no avail but is not essentially worthless as an asset and nearly worthless on the pitch to boot. Kolarov was kept until he was sold for peanuts to Italy (where he has done well). Dzeko was practically given away (and did well at Roma). Navas held onto too long then sold back to Sevilla. Stones purchased and then not able to make the leap but has stayed on the roster for two seasons devaluing as an asset the whole time. As mentioned above, it is already clear that Rodri won't be a great player at City and he was purchased at high cost and will again become less and less valuable while City try to force him to become the player they hoped to buy until he can no longer command a fee. This pattern just continues to repeat itself over and over and leaves the club short both in on field talent and the ability to compete in the transfer market. Some of this is inevitable -- if you want to compete at the very top you will need to ride your best players until they can no longer compete. So Kompany, Silva, Yaya all leave on a free because they're top players and you can't sell them early. Fernandinho will exit the same way, as did Zabaleta, as will Aguero. But in a FFP world this is a disaster as you need to buy replacements for these top talents and the math is very difficult. But then you examine how city have replaced these players and it is only more tragic: Kompany was not immediately replaced and it possibly cost City a title and CL last year. Now they are finally bringing in their 4th choice CB in Dias to try to plug the gap. Silva was not replaced with the hopes Foden or Bernardo will step in (and this i agree with). Yaya was not replaced unless you consider KDB his replacement, Aguero has been on his last legs for 3 seasons and no top striker was purchased and it's hard to imagine City spending what it takes to buy Halaand or another big name there. Fernandinho was replaced by Rodri who has not caught on and will probably need to be replaced again. Basically the entire title winning spine has not been replaced adquately and as a result City have become easier to get at with players who are a cut below the teams which achieved the most success.
I'll save this post here and add onto this opus with part 2: Tactics
The gist of it goes like this: I think City are going to be locked in a battle for the CL spots this year and am worried could fall out. I don't believe City will be making a serious title challenge -- that's a complete write off in my head already absent some major movement in the last week of the window.
So how does one of the richest teams in the world managed by one of the best in the world lose its way? To me there are three aspects of this: Recruitment, Tactics, and Preparation
Manchester City have spent an enormous amount of money in the transfer market -- there is no denying this. My gripe with City's recruitment over the entirety of Txiki Begiristan's time is that in spite of the reputation of City as being this evil market manipulator who buys success City have largely been value hunters in the transfer market. City's recruitment early in Sheikh Mansour's ownership provided the backbone of a squad which won many trophies: Silva, Kompany, Aguero, Fernandinho, Kompany, Yaya. Later others like Nasri and Sterling were added to the mix. Some of these players were purchased cheap and developed into stars but City were generally speaking shopping at the top end of the transfer market and buying difference makers at relatively high cost. As Txiki took over, they shifted to buying complementary players and of course De Bruyne. This resulted in a lot of money spent on fullbacks, wingers, centerbacks to cover for Kompany's injuries, etc. But the scouting and negotiation teams generally let City down: Mangala was a disaster at big money, Bony completely failed, Stones was purchased to grow into the CB role and quickly failed, Jesus Navas, Nolito, Javi Garcia, Fernando, etc. Probably just as bad is the list of targets City identified and then got outbid on who also all turned out to be mediocre or outright failures: Jorginho, Fred, Alexis, Maguire, Bonucci just off the top of my head. Where City have spent, the pattern of not exactly hitting homeruns has continued: Rodri looks like another failure, Mendy is already another failure, Mahrez has had OK stats but has added nothing to the team with the added bonus of (along with pursuit of Sanchez) convincing Jadon Sancho that he had no future at City, so he moved at low money to Dortmund and immediately became a star. I already mentioned Stones but he's become a mess off the pitch and on. Gundogan was hurt when we bought him and is a shadow of the player he was at Dortmund. And so on. But it isn't like the absolute top tier of talent hasn't moved in the last 5 years: Ronaldo, Neymar, Mbappe all moved and City's financial advantage wasn't even in play. City were outbid by Atletico on Felix. Pogba went to United. De Ligt to Juve and De Jong to Barca. My central thesis here is that City have had an absolutely atrocious run of talent identification aside from KDB, Laporte, and probably Bernardo. The vast majority of targets have been mediocre or bad. When the time has come to pay up and buy the best, City have been outbid by rivals, and I'd be more upset by that if those players hadn't also turned out to be mediocre players. But then City have often retreated to players in Spain with buyout clauses or deals where they could spend less than what a top player would cost at the position hoping to recreate the KDB transfer over and over again. The problem is that KDB just happens to be a stud and most "value" players won't make that leap.
Then you get into the selling. The theoretical upside of buying a cut below the top end is that you should be able to move players on who you purchased. Instead, City have consistently held onto players too long and sold below value compared to rivals. Otamendi is finally being sold in a sketchy financial deal to offset the cost of Ruben Dias (a player I like but again a player purchased because preferred targets were too expensive). But Otamendi stopped being a regular starter multiple seasons ago and has hung on the wage bill and devalued as an asset. Mendy showed up and got immediately hurt but has spent multiple seasons trying to regain the form that got him purchased to no avail but is not essentially worthless as an asset and nearly worthless on the pitch to boot. Kolarov was kept until he was sold for peanuts to Italy (where he has done well). Dzeko was practically given away (and did well at Roma). Navas held onto too long then sold back to Sevilla. Stones purchased and then not able to make the leap but has stayed on the roster for two seasons devaluing as an asset the whole time. As mentioned above, it is already clear that Rodri won't be a great player at City and he was purchased at high cost and will again become less and less valuable while City try to force him to become the player they hoped to buy until he can no longer command a fee. This pattern just continues to repeat itself over and over and leaves the club short both in on field talent and the ability to compete in the transfer market. Some of this is inevitable -- if you want to compete at the very top you will need to ride your best players until they can no longer compete. So Kompany, Silva, Yaya all leave on a free because they're top players and you can't sell them early. Fernandinho will exit the same way, as did Zabaleta, as will Aguero. But in a FFP world this is a disaster as you need to buy replacements for these top talents and the math is very difficult. But then you examine how city have replaced these players and it is only more tragic: Kompany was not immediately replaced and it possibly cost City a title and CL last year. Now they are finally bringing in their 4th choice CB in Dias to try to plug the gap. Silva was not replaced with the hopes Foden or Bernardo will step in (and this i agree with). Yaya was not replaced unless you consider KDB his replacement, Aguero has been on his last legs for 3 seasons and no top striker was purchased and it's hard to imagine City spending what it takes to buy Halaand or another big name there. Fernandinho was replaced by Rodri who has not caught on and will probably need to be replaced again. Basically the entire title winning spine has not been replaced adquately and as a result City have become easier to get at with players who are a cut below the teams which achieved the most success.
I'll save this post here and add onto this opus with part 2: Tactics