2020 Broncos: Lock and Roll

Rudy's Curve

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It's insane in hindsight that the Broncos were 11.5-point dogs in this Super Bowl since the Packers were defending champions and had a better record while the Broncos were a Wild Card. The Broncos led the league in SRS (and were three points better than the Packers) and they were a tenth of a percentage point away in DVOA. I think they're pretty clearly the best WC of all time.
 

j-man

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It's insane in hindsight that the Broncos were 11.5-point dogs in this Super Bowl since the Packers were defending champions and had a better record while the Broncos were a Wild Card. The Broncos led the league in SRS (and were three points better than the Packers) and they were a tenth of a percentage point away in DVOA. I think they're pretty clearly the best WC of all time.
yeah that 1997 team had tough breaks loseing @ KC at the gun loseing to pitt bad and @ SF bad as well but got some lucky breaks too does denver win if NE beats Pitt in 1997 IDK NE was the 1st or 2nd best AFC team that year and even with denver on talent wouild had homefield in 97
 

Gunfighter 09

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It's insane in hindsight that the Broncos were 11.5-point dogs in this Super Bowl since the Packers were defending champions and had a better record while the Broncos were a Wild Card. The Broncos led the league in SRS (and were three points better than the Packers) and they were a tenth of a percentage point away in DVOA. I think they're pretty clearly the best WC of all time.

Third best in my opinion. The 2010 Packers were a 10-6 team that had a 12-4 point differential and the losses were:

2 losses with the back up QB
2 overtime losses
2 losses on last second kicks

They were 4th in DVOA, 7th in Offensive efficiency, 2nd in Defense, but peaked mightily in the second half of the year with the exception of the two games Rodgers missed for injury. They won three straight playoff games on the road, none of which were ever really competitive, and then got out to a big lead in the Super Bowl, but had to survive a comeback after their defensive Captain (look up and left) was injured at half time.


The 1980 Raiders:

Were just really lucky to win road games in Cleveland and San Diego (the real best team that year) on an intercepted pass that should never have been thrown and a long touchdown that bounced off of two DBs before landing in the waiting arms of Raymond Chester.

Ok, the 97 Broncos were better than the 80 Raiders.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Third best in my opinion. The 2010 Packers were a 10-6 team that had a 12-4 point differential and the losses were:

2 losses with the back up QB
2 overtime losses
2 losses on last second kicks

They were 4th in DVOA, 7th in Offensive efficiency, 2nd in Defense, but peaked mightily in the second half of the year with the exception of the two games Rodgers missed for injury. They won three straight playoff games on the road, none of which were ever really competitive, and then got out to a big lead in the Super Bowl, but had to survive a comeback after their defensive Captain (look up and left) was injured at half time.


The 1980 Raiders:

Were just really lucky to win road games in Cleveland and San Diego (the real best team that year) on an intercepted pass that should never have been thrown and a long touchdown that bounced off of two DBs before landing in the waiting arms of Raymond Chester.

Ok, the 97 Broncos were better than the 80 Raiders.
For some reason I totally forgot about the '10 Packers even though they're the most recent ones to do it. They lost two games to bad teams with Rodgers, but their overall profile is very similar to the '97 Broncos and they played almost two games without him. The one quibble I'll make is although they led the Eagles the whole way, the Eagles were driving late where a TD would've given them the lead when Vick threw an interception in the end zone. Both playoff runs were very impressive:

Packers
WC: 9.2 "points" (margin of victory + opponent's SRS)
Div: 33.1
CG: 11.1
SB: 16.2
Total: 69.6

Broncos:
WC: 30.5
Div: 12.4
CG: 8.3
SB: 14.7
Total: 65.9

The Packers were in a higher scoring era so SRS' are going to be naturally higher (and lower for teams in the negative) but that's nit-picking. The main difference is that oddsmakers and the betting market got a lot smarter by 2010, as the Packers were 2.5-3 point favorites against a really good Steeler team.
 

Super Nomario

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It's insane in hindsight that the Broncos were 11.5-point dogs in this Super Bowl since the Packers were defending champions and had a better record while the Broncos were a Wild Card. The Broncos led the league in SRS (and were three points better than the Packers) and they were a tenth of a percentage point away in DVOA. I think they're pretty clearly the best WC of all time.
At the time, the AFC hadn't won a Super Bowl in 14 years. And 11.5 points seems like a huge spread now, but only 3 of the previous 14 Super Bowls had been that close. Almost every exciting Super Bowl happened after that game. We'd gotten used to expected an NFC blowout win in the SB every year.

But you're right that that was a really good Broncos team that just had the misfortune of being in the same division as the 13-3 Chiefs. Denver split with KC, the loss a last-second, 54-yard field goal to lose by 2 in KC (the "Pete Stoyanovich for President!" game).
 

Rudy's Curve

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At the time, the AFC hadn't won a Super Bowl in 14 years. And 11.5 points seems like a huge spread now, but only 3 of the previous 14 Super Bowls had been that close. Almost every exciting Super Bowl happened after that game. We'd gotten used to expected an NFC blowout win in the SB every year.

But you're right that that was a really good Broncos team that just had the misfortune of being in the same division as the 13-3 Chiefs. Denver split with KC, the loss a last-second, 54-yard field goal to lose by 2 in KC (the "Pete Stoyanovich for President!" game).
You're absolutely correct - that superseded how good the Broncos were and that the Packers were more like an 11-12 win team than a 13-win one. The line the year before was 2.5 points higher, but the '96 Packers are on one hand of the best teams of all time while the '97 team was merely very good and the '97 Broncos were considerably better than the '96 Pats. It was also amazingly the lowest line in four years (the '94 49ers were 19-point favorites and covered easily!) and was the fifth straight year the NFC was a double-digit favorite.

As an aside, it's a shame Terrell Davis' career was cut short. In eight playoff games, he averaged 143 YPG on 5.6 YPC with 12 TDs.
 

tims4wins

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The Broncos may have been better in 96 than 97 and 98. Still can’t believe they lost to Jacksonville. They obliterated the Pats in Foxboro. I was there. Massacre. The Shannon Sharpe call in the national guard game.
 

Rudy's Curve

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The Broncos may have been better in 96 than 97 and 98. Still can’t believe they lost to Jacksonville. They obliterated the Pats in Foxboro. I was there. Massacre. The Shannon Sharpe call in the national guard game.
They had a better record in 96 but they scored 81 more points in 97 while only allowing 12 more. 98 had everything - a 13-0 start with a dominant playoff run (although they trailed by 10 in the second half of the CG) and a 192 point differential. That being said, the Jacksonville game was certainly a massive upset. The Broncos were 12.5-point favorites and it probably could've been more - they had a 9.1 SRS edge with an obviously huge HFA. Somehow the Jaguars won two road games and made the CG with a negative point differential. The line in that SB might've been 20 if they beat the Pats.
 
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Gunfighter 09

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It's insane in hindsight that the Broncos were 11.5-point dogs in this Super Bowl since the Packers were defending champions and had a better record while the Broncos were a Wild Card.
The other factor driving the line was that an AFC team hadn't won the Super Bowl in 14 years before that. The AFC was looked at as the JV conference and Denver's resume as inflated by playing in the weaker conference.
 

j-man

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Third best in my opinion. The 2010 Packers were a 10-6 team that had a 12-4 point differential and the losses were:

2 losses with the back up QB
2 overtime losses
2 losses on last second kicks

They were 4th in DVOA, 7th in Offensive efficiency, 2nd in Defense, but peaked mightily in the second half of the year with the exception of the two games Rodgers missed for injury. They won three straight playoff games on the road, none of which were ever really competitive, and then got out to a big lead in the Super Bowl, but had to survive a comeback after their defensive Captain (look up and left) was injured at half time.


The 1980 Raiders:

Were just really lucky to win road games in Cleveland and San Diego (the real best team that year) on an intercepted pass that should never have been thrown and a long touchdown that bounced off of two DBs before landing in the waiting arms of Raymond Chester.

Ok, the 97 Broncos were better than the 80 Raiders.
that 80 raiders team was really good beat 3 really good teams to win the super bowl that year shouild also have rings in 74 and maybe 77
 

j-man

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You're absolutely correct - that superseded how good the Broncos were and that the Packers were more like an 11-12 win team than a 13-win one. The line the year before was 2.5 points higher, but the '96 Packers are on one hand of the best teams of all time while the '97 team was merely very good and the '97 Broncos were considerably better than the '96 Pats. It was also amazingly the lowest line in four years (the '94 49ers were 19-point favorites and covered easily!) and was the fifth straight year the NFC was a double-digit favorite.

As an aside, it's a shame Terrell Davis' career was cut short. In eight playoff games, he averaged 143 YPG on 5.6 YPC with 12 TDs.
well shanny put in a rookie at QB when if denver SF knew what happhed to steve young in 99 we shouild traded a 1'2'3' 99 and 1'2' 00 to SF for steve young other then loseing al wilson SF needed Draft picks badly and had young played for any other team in 99 he plays a full season only got hurt in 99 because RB L Phillips couild not pass block had this happened denver loses in the 99 super bowl to the rams but beats balt in mile high and wins the 2000 super bowl
 

j-man

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The Broncos may have been better in 96 than 97 and 98. Still can’t believe they lost to Jacksonville. They obliterated the Pats in Foxboro. I was there. Massacre. The Shannon Sharpe call in the national guard game.
denver lost that game because we couild not sack bruell looking back on it we win that game no neil smith no howard Griffith when we needed both in 97
 

j-man

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here my mark mcgrire story
he mcgrime was weak i met the guy in 99 its true here how it happened
Box Score of Game played on Friday, April 9, 1999 at Busch Stadium II
The box score of the game played on Friday, April 9, 1999 at Busch Stadium II between the Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals.
www.baseball-almanac.com
in 1999 i just had a hamstring release surgery at shirers hospital in st louis in march the surgery was hit/miss but it did loosen my legs some anyway on april 9 99 we were invite to a cards game against the reds and my roommates were looked foward to see big mac me i just wanted fresh air and to see pretty girls i was 15 and a half at the time anyway its a 35-45 min bus ride to Busch we get there they stick me in a rental chair where u feel every bump we saw batting patrice and that was great here were it got kind of eye-opening

mac came out and bump my chair and i almost fell out of my chair in front of hospital staff and st louis media did not say sorry did not talk to my roommates who was between 8-12 years old if not for joe mcewing who signed balls talked to every one of us for 3-5 min in fact my folks got me a athlon baseball magazine with derek jeter on the cover i have it stored in a box and joe signed it there was a mail a mile from our hospital anyway we left in the 7th inning to beat traffic

i really dont mind mcgwire was a asshole what ticked me off was 1 everyone defend him for basicey ruining my roommate night they were crying and sad for a few days afterwards 2 the rental chair kind of wobby 3 this is my bone to pick while i was there u couild make rams bules jokes all day long but try any cardinals joke and most staff wouild be pissed off and the rams won the super bowl 9 mos later oh if only i couild go back i had a feeling in my gut that they were gonna win 10 games that season
 

j-man

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its not that bad
they will be a cap reduction next year OTC says we are 11 in cap space with 55 mil on a 215 mil cap
we can cut boure and casey with no dead $ and save 25.7 mil
we can cut callahan and save 6m but have 1.3 in dead $
cutting K Jackson saves 7.2 mil but has 2.8 in dead $
cutting von would save 14 mil but have 4.1 in dead $
cutting vannett saves 2 mil but 875 k in dead $
cutting D Dawson saves 1.1 mil no dead $
cutting jeff D saves 1.8 mil 750 k in dead $
these moves wouild free 57 mil in space with about 10 mil in dead $
BTW cutting J James only saves 2 mil with a 6 mil dead cap
and cutting A Beck r freeman I Yiadom wouild save about 2.5 mil with 350k dead $
these moves wouild give us 61.5 mil with 16.3 in dead $

my reply to it
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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quick breakdown going into 2020
QB Lock - he will have growing pains but shouild grow into a top 10-12 QB by mid 2021
RB Gordon Lindsay gordan will start with lindsay on 3rd down combined they should go for 1'300 and 12 td's
WR Sutton Jerdy Hamler / patrick Suttion and Jerdy will be the best 1-2 punch in the NFL late in 2021 hamler should be a az hakim type but needs a reshirt year
TE Fant Albebt O fant is a top 10 te and O was lock teammate in college allready knows him
OL Bollies LT Riner LG Cushberry c Glawow RG James/wilkoning RT the weak spot while the G play will be good big Q at LT C and RT
DE Casey S Harris Pucell NT getting Casey was a steal from tenn Purcell help stop the run game after week 4 harris is the weak spot but gets a little better each year
LB Miller chubb t davis A Johnson if chubb stays on the feald him and von should combire for 20 sacks T Davis cannot cover backs and TE'S but is a great run stuffer A Johnson is a fast al wilson
CB Boyae Callahan Yidom our weak spot boyde is a num 2 at best the rest are nickel guys
S Simmons jackson if healhy the best S duo in the NFL
K Mcmanas not bad
P Martin last year advage 45 yard a punt in det

this is a 9-7 team unlees Lock is a top 3 QB in the AFC then 11-5 but most likely 9-7 with a shot for a big run in 2021
 

bosockboy

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quick breakdown going into 2020
QB Lock - he will have growing pains but shouild grow into a top 10-12 QB by mid 2021
RB Gordon Lindsay gordan will start with lindsay on 3rd down combined they should go for 1'300 and 12 td's
WR Sutton Jerdy Hamler / patrick Suttion and Jerdy will be the best 1-2 punch in the NFL late in 2021 hamler should be a az hakim type but needs a reshirt year
TE Fant Albebt O fant is a top 10 te and O was lock teammate in college allready knows him
OL Bollies LT Riner LG Cushberry c Glawow RG James/wilkoning RT the weak spot while the G play will be good big Q at LT C and RT
DE Casey S Harris Pucell NT getting Casey was a steal from tenn Purcell help stop the run game after week 4 harris is the weak spot but gets a little better each year
LB Miller chubb t davis A Johnson if chubb stays on the feald him and von should combire for 20 sacks T Davis cannot cover backs and TE'S but is a great run stuffer A Johnson is a fast al wilson
CB Boyae Callahan Yidom our weak spot boyde is a num 2 at best the rest are nickel guys
S Simmons jackson if healhy the best S duo in the NFL
K Mcmanas not bad
P Martin last year advage 45 yard a punt in det

this is a 9-7 team unlees Lock is a top 3 QB in the AFC then 11-5 but most likely 9-7 with a shot for a big run in 2021
Lock has a long road before he’s anywhere near top 10-12. 3/4 years
 

j-man

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Lock has a long road before he’s anywhere near top 10-12. 3/4 years
how so he was 4-1 in the last 5 games he only had sutton and fant to throw to on a cont basis now he adds jerdy the best route runner in the draft hamler a solt guy than can stench the field Gordon a guy that is good catching passes in the backfield Albert O a 6-6 dude that can catch and was lock fav target in college now to be fair the ol is a worry but as long as lock gets better footwork he should be fine