I don't think I value him 8x as much. Would anyone?
We need to unpack what we mean when we say "Eight times as much." Would I rather have one year of 2018 Mahomes vs eight years of 2019 Jackson? Probably not. Would I rather have one player with the level of impact Mahomes has on winning, vs eight players (at any position) with the impact Jackson does? Definitely not. Would I rather have one literal Mahomes clone than eight literal Jackson clones? Yes, because only one of the Jacksons can start (well, he's so good you'd probably start a Jackson at running back and maybe slot receiver too, but you know what I mean). I probably would rather have two Jackson-level contributors than one Mahomes, and the number of Jackson-level contributors to equal Mahomes is definitely not more than three. It's totally normal to pay premium dollars for relatively small extra win equity, though, in light of the eleven guys things. PFF rates one WAR from a player playing on an extension as costing $32m on average over the last decade; since I think Mahomes is a good bet to average 3 WAR over the lifetime of the contract, then I like the deal.
A fair way of looking at it might be: Would you rather have Jackson, and Aaron Donald in the middle of your D-Line, or Mahomes and a third-round rookie? I think I'm going Mahomes there. And even that comparison might not be fair, because guys as good as Donald tend not to reach free agency; so that option is only available to you if you happened to draft both a guy as good as Donald and an elite QB, or the Donald-level player becomes disgruntled and you pony up, say, two firsts.
He's not as good *now* as Mahomes is, but was he as good in 2016 as Mahomes is now? Pretty damn close. You seem determined to make this an apples-to-oranges comparison, even when there's an apples-to-apples comparison sitting right there in front of you. (And a 28-3 joke waiting to be made at my expense as well!)
C'mon man, I guess this being a Pats forum we can allow a little persecution complex sometimes, but Baseballjones started by asking specifically what people thought Mahomes was worth. Someone said, it's not dollars, it's percentage of the cap. OK, what percentage of the cap then? Tims then says, well, the highest we've had in five years is Ryan in 2016. Then Jones is like, OK, so how much more than 2016 Ryan is he worth? Dude's just trying to get someone to answer the question, but folks keep shifting the goalposts. He didn't bring up Ryan, and it's clearly not an attempt to bait you. I also don't think it's unreasonable to claim that Mahomes now is a lot better than '16 Ryan (I don't think the converse is unreasonable;
it's a decent argument worth having).
The Ryan example is instructive, because Ryan signed his deal after 2012, when the team was really good. Then they have two bad and one mediocre season, netting them decent draft picks, enough to put a load of cheap young talent on the roster, particularly defense, permitting them to come within a gnat's pubic hair of a title. Is the Mahomes contract worth it if it, combined with a few injuries, gives them a couple losing seasons before returning to serious contention? What about if he's more like Rodgers, and the team's always in the contending pack, but never the favorite, but also rarely has a season bad enough to land elite talent to put them over the top? Would KC fans think it's worth it if the next decade has two MVP season and 3-4 AFCCG appearances, but no SB appearances?
My two cents: It's difficult to put an upper limit on it, because we're dealing with something unprecedented. I feel like a quarter of the cap would clearly be too much, but 2016 Ryan is something I'd do in a heartbeat. If he were a free agent, and I were in a competitive auction? I'd probably go to something like 20%. You could like afford one other premium talent, and then have to fill the roster out with first contract guys, players on one year prove-its, and ring chasers, but I'm cool with that, especially if I'm actually the Chiefs and have Andy Reid. Reid isn't quite Belichick, and Mahomes is unlikely to be as underpaid as Brady, so I don't think they'll quite manage anything resembling either of the Pats' separate SB runs, but they're a good bet to get as close as anyone is. If i set the over/under for Mahomes playing on this contract at 1.5 titles, which way would people bet?