Yes, I will be doing this again this year.
Coming off a surprise 90-win season and with a ton of financial flexibility, fans were sensing an opportunity: spend some cash on some free agents, and make next year The Year To Break The Playoff Drought. "Spend money," they'd say, usually punctuated by a vulgar description for ownership.
And they did! To an extent, at least. Before the lockout, they signed reigning Cy winner Robbie Ray to a big deal. He now heads up a rotation that was quietly solid last year - Logan Gilbert, Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales are all solidly above-average, though arguably none is a true number-two-type (Gilbert may yet become one). There's not a lot of depth behind them, leading many to speculate that Jerry Dipoto isn't done, but the front four is decent.
The lineup also needed considerable improvements, though, and it's here that many fans' concerns were borne out, as Dipoto improved it through a series of trades rather than something more simple and direct, like signing Kris Bryant*. They did get Adam Frazier as their new everyday 2B, which, he's fine. They also got Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez in a splashy but risky move. Certainly the offense has raised its floor considerably - this team gave a ton of at-bats last year to the likes of Jake Bauers, Shed Long, Jose Marmolejos, Evan White, et al. And players like Dylan Moore, Luis Torrens, and Taylor Trammell will play reduced roles to which they are better suited. If you assume Jarred Kelenic will build off his legitimately strong September - he was the best player on the team! - Cal Raleigh will improve, and Kyle Lewis will come back healthy, then you've got a Major-League lineup:
Projected Mariners Lineup:
Frazier 2B
France 1B
Haniger RF
Winker DH
Suarez 3B
Kelenic LF
Lewis CF
Crawford SS
Raleigh C
Bench - Moore, Torrens, Toro, Murphy
Not bad. There's a ton of risk there, obviously - maybe Kelenic is still more the guy he was the rest of the year than the guy he was in September. Lewis's health is not a sure bet. Winker is badly exposed against LHP. Frazier was not the same player in San Diego. Suarez might not rediscover his 2020 form (when he was just ok) let alone the version of him that existed in 2019**. But on the whole, when I look at that lineup, I see a cromulent option at every position (which is an improvement over 2021). But what I don't see is a star, and that's why fans are disappointed. Even with the expanded playoffs, the AL is tough without a transcendent star, and it sure doesn't look like the Mariners have that guy.
Unless***...
View: https://twitter.com/Mariners/status/1504939843519885313
There is a decent chance that Julio Rodriguez breaks camp with the club! He's widely considered to be that guy in the making. It's a lot to ask of a rookie, but by all accounts, he welcomes that sort of thing. So we'll see!
Overall, I'd say they're a better team than last year's edition, but in this case that means they still very well might finish with a worse record.
* - There have been scattered reports that they offered Trevor Story a lot of money to play third. He turned it down.
** - Did you know Eugenio Suarez has hit the most home runs in all of MLB since 2018? It's true!
*** - Bonus: Don Orsillo on the call
Coming off a surprise 90-win season and with a ton of financial flexibility, fans were sensing an opportunity: spend some cash on some free agents, and make next year The Year To Break The Playoff Drought. "Spend money," they'd say, usually punctuated by a vulgar description for ownership.
And they did! To an extent, at least. Before the lockout, they signed reigning Cy winner Robbie Ray to a big deal. He now heads up a rotation that was quietly solid last year - Logan Gilbert, Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales are all solidly above-average, though arguably none is a true number-two-type (Gilbert may yet become one). There's not a lot of depth behind them, leading many to speculate that Jerry Dipoto isn't done, but the front four is decent.
The lineup also needed considerable improvements, though, and it's here that many fans' concerns were borne out, as Dipoto improved it through a series of trades rather than something more simple and direct, like signing Kris Bryant*. They did get Adam Frazier as their new everyday 2B, which, he's fine. They also got Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez in a splashy but risky move. Certainly the offense has raised its floor considerably - this team gave a ton of at-bats last year to the likes of Jake Bauers, Shed Long, Jose Marmolejos, Evan White, et al. And players like Dylan Moore, Luis Torrens, and Taylor Trammell will play reduced roles to which they are better suited. If you assume Jarred Kelenic will build off his legitimately strong September - he was the best player on the team! - Cal Raleigh will improve, and Kyle Lewis will come back healthy, then you've got a Major-League lineup:
Projected Mariners Lineup:
Frazier 2B
France 1B
Haniger RF
Winker DH
Suarez 3B
Kelenic LF
Lewis CF
Crawford SS
Raleigh C
Bench - Moore, Torrens, Toro, Murphy
Not bad. There's a ton of risk there, obviously - maybe Kelenic is still more the guy he was the rest of the year than the guy he was in September. Lewis's health is not a sure bet. Winker is badly exposed against LHP. Frazier was not the same player in San Diego. Suarez might not rediscover his 2020 form (when he was just ok) let alone the version of him that existed in 2019**. But on the whole, when I look at that lineup, I see a cromulent option at every position (which is an improvement over 2021). But what I don't see is a star, and that's why fans are disappointed. Even with the expanded playoffs, the AL is tough without a transcendent star, and it sure doesn't look like the Mariners have that guy.
Unless***...
View: https://twitter.com/Mariners/status/1504939843519885313
There is a decent chance that Julio Rodriguez breaks camp with the club! He's widely considered to be that guy in the making. It's a lot to ask of a rookie, but by all accounts, he welcomes that sort of thing. So we'll see!
Overall, I'd say they're a better team than last year's edition, but in this case that means they still very well might finish with a worse record.
* - There have been scattered reports that they offered Trevor Story a lot of money to play third. He turned it down.
** - Did you know Eugenio Suarez has hit the most home runs in all of MLB since 2018? It's true!
*** - Bonus: Don Orsillo on the call
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