How many “insert year draft winners” win the Super Bowl?The Patriots have lost ground the last 2 days.
it’s like the off-season.
How many “insert year draft winners” win the Super Bowl?The Patriots have lost ground the last 2 days.
u might run a 4-2-5 or a 3 S defMaybe all the fourth rounders will be linebackers… Defense looking a bit… underdone in this draft so far.
His measurables seem really good - I don’t get the concerns over athleticismChenal was otherworldly at Wisconsin. If there weren’t serious doubts about his athleticism against NFL talent, he’d have been gone long ago.
What do the doubters know?Chenal was otherworldly at Wisconsin. If there weren’t serious doubts about his athleticism against NFL talent, he’d have been gone long ago.
If you are looking to remove stubbornI'm sticking with 4-0-7.
And when did they know it!?!What do the doubters know?
Isn’t the concern that Chenal cannot cover anyone?What do the doubters know?
SO looking at some pre-draft weaknesses listed:Isn’t the concern that Chenal cannot cover anyone?
Seems like an over correction to go Thornton when they did, Nkeal was slow and big so lets get literally the fastest and thinnest WR available. Problem is the track record for success with that profile is non-existant. Best case scenario is a healthy Will Fuller or Robby Anderson, the lists of busts vastly outweighs those two. Give me a 4.5 route runner like Deion Branch over a 4.3 straight line burner every day all day.I’m kinda curious what critics expect Belichick to do in the draft here. Like, we know the Bills whipped the Pats last year. The CB pick seems aimed at part of that where McKenzie and Crowder have given NE fits on their respective teams. People hated that WRs could not get separation so they get a burner who may be able to do that and provide a dimension that Meyers and Parker don’t. They have a young immobile QB so they get a guard to hopefully prevent the highly talented D lines from destroying him.
I get the want for a premier LB prospect given Dawson Knox and Josh Allen destroying folks last time we saw them but there’s a lot of things to fix in terms of that, this seems to be an attempt to do some of that. I suspect the fairly large projected cap space and accumulated picks next year will be a big part of that. The Bills have built a great team and are spending heavily to maximize it now, it’ll be tough for a bit.
Time will tell. If Chenal and Skyy become all pros then it’ll look bad, but it’s time.
He does do well in the part of the draft, although it often requires a redshirt year for the player to contribute. I also think they passed on some potential impact players on D (Jermaine Johnson, Devin Lloyd, Trent McDuffie), and it’s going to sting if the Pats continue to look a step behind against the good teams and those players flourish elsewhere.I’m usually rah rah team BB and still think it’s more likely than not that the results will be there, but I can’t help but feel pretty disappointed in this draft. I know I know nothing, but they had so many bites at the apple of guys who sure seemed like ideal fits for this team and they just wouldn’t do it. I have no idea why other than that they didn’t want to draft those guys for some reason. Which I don’t get. They have a million picks tomorrow and BB usually does great in this phase of the draft so let’s hope he knocks it out of the park on Saturday and even with UDFAs.
Malik Willis is probably the non-Patriot in this draft class I'm rooting for most. Kid has a great hearthe went to Liberty... fuck him
Let’s hope so because the Chiefs drafted him.Isn’t the concern that Chenal cannot cover anyone?
I think it’s pretty clear what Groh and BB wanted out of this draft. Speed and athleticism. Whether they picked the right players remains to be seen.
+Tariq WoolenI'm mostly puzzled by how the linebackers in the draft have slid so far.
Is there something about their tape that screams about their inability to adapt to the NFL? Chenal certainly looks the part. Maybe he's more Bentley than Hightower? I have no idea.
Anyways, I'm going with Kalon Barnes, Zyon McCollum, and Bo Melton to complete the Al Davis draft this year.
The thing to me is they mostly lacked speed and athleticism in the front seven and they didn't draft a single DL or LB. Like the Jones selection, I think he's a dynamic player that could play the slot for this team for years, but I do worry a bit about his size and think he'll end up as a matchup guy most likely.I think it’s pretty clear what Groh and BB wanted out of this draft. Speed and athleticism. Whether they picked the right players remains to be seen.
They didn’t have the worlds fastest linebacker corp, for sure, and hopefully McGrine and Wilson help with that, but I think what happened against Buffalo wasn’t just athletic, but perhaps even more importantly that Daboll had the team completely perplexed. You take a slower player put him out of position and give him a late start Mon a play and the result is two games of Allen basically not even getting to third downs.The thing to me is they mostly lacked speed and athleticism in the front seven and they didn't draft a single DL or LB. Like the Jones selection, I think he's a dynamic player that could play the slot for this team for years, but I do worry a bit about his size and think he'll end up as a matchup guy most likely.
I agree 100%. You don't do what Buffalo did to them in two straight games solely because of athletic superiority. I was making a more general point. But it could very well be that they believe they have enough athletic linebackers in the roster with McGrone, Wilson, Uche, Jennings and company. All that's left is to see if those guys can play.They didn’t have the worlds fastest linebacker corp, for sure, and hopefully McGrine and Wilson help with that, but I think what happened against Buffalo wasn’t just athletic, but perhaps even more importantly that Daboll had the team completely perplexed. You take a slower player put him out of position and give him a late start Mon a play and the result is two games of Allen basically not even getting to third downs.
fast linebackers or not, if they get our coaches like that again they lose again.
The list of edge defenders drafted in the 2nd-4th rounds by the Patriots who didn't play at all in their rookie seasons and ended up being contributors has only one name: Trey Flowers. None of the other guys (Shawn Crable, Jake Bequette, Marquise Hill, Geneo Grissom, Derek Rivers) amounted to anything.Is Ronnie Perkins still a thing? Asking because his potential return in 2022 hasn’t been mentioned much at all on SoSH… and I know I just had to Google “Patriots Oklahoma 2021 draft edge” to remember his name.
I wonder how often Bill selects outside the “consensus”. We know from the data that he’s good at drafting. But how much does he draft outside the consensus?Just read something interesting: 82% of the consensus big board's top 105 players have been selected in the first 105 picks of the draft. 28 out of the top 32 players on the consensus big board went in the first. Seems like the discrepancy in evaluation isn't as large as some believe.
On the one hand yes, on the other...The thing to me is they mostly lacked speed and athleticism in the front seven and they didn't draft a single DL or LB. Like the Jones selection, I think he's a dynamic player that could play the slot for this team for years, but I do worry a bit about his size and think he'll end up as a matchup guy most likely.
Look at the players in last years draft. People were squawking about what they did, and in what order. At the end of the day, they got results and if BB was zigging while everyone else was zagging maybe they was a strategic advantage to him. It's fair to say that last years draft was exceptionally successful (especially in the context of his last X drafts), but it's our most recent data point.While I get that drafting within the consensus like the Jets, Ravens and Chiefs have done doesn't necessarily mean you'll get good results, I also struggle to see any intrinsic value in not following the consensus. Some of the best Patriots drafts have come when they picked the sort of players fans knew and wanted (2012, 2021). On the flip side, they got a lot of names in 2019 and it didn't work out. Sure, Bill has more freedom to go outside the consensus than most GMs, but I do wonder if that doesn't have the side effect of making him a little too set on his ways and unwilling to deviate from his specific parameters for what a player should be able to do.
Last year consensus big board had Mac Jones 14th, the Pats took him at 15. Had Christian Barmore 28th and they took him at 38. Had Ronnie Perkins 58th and the Patriots took him at 96. Had Rhamondre Stevenson 137th and they took him at 120. Had McGrone 112th and they took him at 177. Had Bledsoe 194th and they took him at 188. They went off board with Sherman and Nixon, their last two picks.Look at the players in last years draft. People were squawking about what they did, and in what order. At the end of the day, they got results and if BB was zigging while everyone else was zagging maybe they was a strategic advantage to him. It's fair to say that last years draft was exceptionally successful (especially in the context of his last X drafts), but it's our most recent data point.
Also, if everyone has player X rated as 4th best at his position, definite first round grade but after talking with the college clubhouse guy that the player is never on time, or to the neighbors brother that the kid never cracks his playbook - so BB believes he won't be successful - do you want BB to draft him because it's the consensus? If we say it's a defensive player, and BB values constantly morphing the defense to keep the QB on his toes, if the player can't absorb the various changes/fluidity to the position and is only likely to play 1 down out of 4 for BB, where is the value versus the consensus? A highly slanted hypothetical to be sure, but the premise is valid. Whatever process(es) allows BB to get players in house that allow him to meet goals he has on the field the higher the chance of success in any given year. I don't care if his draft process is diametrically opposed to the consensus, until that moment when he really has fallen behind the rest of the league. [This isn't to say that I think he is diverging from the consensus out of spite or amusement evil villain style, I think he is simply being true to his professional beliefs with an IDGAF attitude about what everyone else is doing. His only interest in what everyone else is doing would seem to be for the data he can mine to get a strategic/tactical advantage about moving up/down.]
She's Dawn Aponte, a highly respected/experienced front office administrator for the NFL. She was with the Dolphins FO for years and was frequently coined as their "cap expert." Up until yesterday, I had no clue what she looked like. Pleasantly surprised!this woman makeing the picks is easy on the eyes
Let's keep these threads on topic. Thanks.this woman makeing the picks is easy on the eyes
Thanks for the context. Again, though, on topic.She's Dawn Aponte, a highly respected/experienced front office administrator for the NFL. She was with the Dolphins FO for years and was frequently coined as their "cap expert." Up until yesterday, I had no clue what she looked like. Pleasantly surprised!
Edit: Once considered a GM candidate, also.
Meet Dawn Aponte: The Dolphin's Most Powerful Woman and Possible GM Candidate | Riptide 2.0 | Miami | Miami New Times | The Leading Independent News Source in Miami, Florida
Last year consensus big board had Mac Jones 14th, the Pats took him at 15. Had Christian Barmore 28th and they took him at 38. Had Ronnie Perkins 58th and the Patriots took him at 96. Had Rhamondre Stevenson 137th and they took him at 120. Had McGrone 112th and they took him at 177. Had Bledsoe 194th and they took him at 188. They went off board with Sherman and Nixon, their last two picks.
Last year the Patriots basically went chalk with the consensus. They 100% did not zig when everyone else was zagging.
Taking a player who's dropped a round below the consensus ratings doesn't really scream "breaking consensus" - to me that's indistinguishable from "took a value pick because Bill agreed with how highly the consensus rated the player much more than other teams did". What BB did that draft went against what other teams were doing, yes, but when we talk about whether teams went along with consensus we are usually talking about whether they went along how draftniks saw the player as whole, whereas you seem to be talking about two different consensuses (consensi?) - the draft board and the teams.I'm not saying BB broke the draft, fairly I think it is reasonable to say it was a damn good one (and they needed a good draft). But he went against grain, against consensus, against expectations. If you want to say that drafting significantly below ranking for value isn't 'zagging', ok, pick your own term - but it's still a net positive for the team (if they produce). I think if the player is dropping a round or more it's reasonable to say it was outside consensus. No matter the vocabulary, he went against the grain. 2 players slipped more than a round (Perkins, McGrone), 1 (Barmore) he overpaid to get regardless of his ranking and resultant value, 1 (Jones) he stayed motionless instead of overpaying.
- Jones had been talked about as high as 3. BB did not pay a premium and jump up to grab him, people were talking about the Patriots going up to 4-5 picks to get him (or at least one of the QBs). He could have moved when he was expected to - he didn't. Consensus: he took a risk waiting for the player to fall to him when he had the capital to move up for him.
- BB paid a 2 draft pick premium (2 fourth rounders) to get his hands on Barmore - a serious overpay in some circles. Many were waiting for BB to trade some of that draft excess out to the future, instead he packaged some and went up. Consensus: not great value.
- Perkins was a questionable pick for many, as he was redundant in the face of other needs and had failed a drug test in college (which likely contributed to his to slip). He was slipping, yet, they drafted value there, a round outside consensus.
- Stevenson like Perkins had a drug test issue in college, and the Patriots had other more pressing needs given a full running back room (they ended up trading Sony Michel, right?). They took him a bit earlier than he was rated, pretty much a wash for consensus.
- McGrone was dropping like a stone because of his medicals - the team went away from consensus and took a gamble on him for the future (assuming they would medically redshirt him a year?). Regardless of where he was ranked, league consensus after dropping almost 2 rounds was he wasn't worth the medical risk - BB took him anyway (at a discount). Just like he did with some big goofy TE a while back - sometimes you win.
- Bledsoe was a wash for consensus
- Sherman and Nixon were as you say off board.
That's 4 of his top 5, and in my book 6 of 8 in total. I respect others opinions, but that's my take.
You are obviously correct, but in some ways it's semantics. Every time he drafts someone more than about a round "early", all the pundits cry "reach" and "grade" him as poor value moves. He moved up to get Barmore (at the cost of 2 number 4s) and again the refrain "poor value". My point is maybe there is strategic value to what he is doing, that qualifies as doing the unexpected - or going against the grain, or against consensus. Consensus was that he paid too much to get back in that round to get Barmore. If folks mean it is a different "consensus" than that of the specific round/evaluation big board consensus, then sure - 100% you are absolutely right. As others have stated since my original post (perhaps in other threads), at the end of the day he obviously views his machinations as valuable, regardless of what other teams/media/fans/3rd party experts think about 'consensus' or value, or reaching, or whatever. Everyone celebrates the wonderful draft the Ravens have every year, and they might as well have the intern check ESPN "on the clock" entry for the highest value remaining column - for better or worse.Taking a player who's dropped a round below the consensus ratings doesn't really scream "breaking consensus" - to me that's indistinguishable from "took a value pick because Bill agreed with how highly the consensus rated the player much more than other teams did". What BB did that draft went against what other teams were doing, yes, but when we talk about whether teams went along with consensus we are usually talking about whether they went along how draftniks saw the player as whole, whereas you seem to be talking about two different consensuses (consensi?) - the draft board and the teams.
Remember, at this time last year, many projected Spencer Rattler to go #1. Howell was top 10 on many boards. Other QBs talked about as potential 1st round picks included Willis, Corral, Strong, Ridder, Kedon Slovis as well as Pickett. I think I even remember Daniels and Bo Nix in the first in a few early mocks.I saw this and thought it was interesting. I didn't realize that there are so many highly rated QBs in next year's draft.
View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1521229451920658432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1521229451920658432%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthespun.com%2Fnfl%2Fmel-kiper-reveals-bold-prediction-for-2023-nfl-draft
ESPN draft analysts @MelKiperESPN , along with @McShay13, set the over/under for quarterbacks to go in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft at 6.5. And Kiper is going with the over.