2023-24 Celtics

[radsoxfan]

I am kind of shocked by the parity predicted by those models. only two teams with > 50 wins. is this some quirk in the models?

While the Celtics are an outlier, don't these models usually predict teams to be pretty bunched up without as many high performing teams as you know there will be?

My understanding is that they are predicting 50th percentile projections, and that will pull everyone back to the pack. In reality, out of a group of 30 teams, there are inevitably going to be a few teams that hit 80-90th percentile projections and "over perform". But you can't predict which teams those will be prospectively.

Put another way, these models don't actually think only 2 teams till win more than 50 games this year. They just think only 2 teams 50th percentile projection is over 50 wins. Big difference.

 

[lovegtm]

I think they see Lillard as a downgrade from Holiday. I do think the general public is ignoring the defensive downgrade from Holiday (arguably the best guard defender in the league) to Lillard (somewhere between Trae Young and Kyrie Irving on the perimeter defense scale) because they think that the Giannis/Lopez combination can clean up his mistakes at the rim. We'll see.

Yes, and it's important to dig into how much of Lopez's success protecting the rim has really been about Holiday (and to some degree Wes Mathews, when he was playing well).

The obvious counter to Lopez's drop is to just cook the Bucks on the perimeter with speed and shooting, but Holiday was massive in preventing that at the point of attack. Like, just incredibly good at blowing things up there and lowering the value of the perimeter against the Bucks.

Without Jrue, there is going to be a LOT of space available against the Bucks, especially in big games when teams can gameplan to target the many weak links Milwaukee has.

 

[Imbricus]

Without Jrue, there is going to be a LOT of space available against the Bucks, especially in big games when teams can gameplan to target the many weak links Milwaukee has.

Yeah, Milwaukee is my bet this year for team most likely to surprise on the downside. I'm so glad we lost the Lillard sweepstakes (if we were ever involved) but won the consolation prize of Holiday. Lillard would be a bad fit on this team; we'd have too many ball-dominant types. Holiday though fits in beautifully almost anywhere.

 

[Pablo's TB Lover]

While the Celtics are an outlier, don't these models usually predict teams to be pretty bunched up without as many high performing teams as you know there will be?

My understanding is that they are predicting 50th percentile projections, and that will pull everyone back to the pack. In reality, out of a group of 30 teams, there are inevitably going to be a few teams that hit 80-90th percentile projections and "over perform". But you can't predict which teams those will be prospectively.

Put another way, these models don't actually think only 2 teams till win more than 50 games this year. They just think only 2 teams 50th percentile projection is over 50 wins. Big difference.

Right, there is a ceiling where 60 wins would be almost impossible as a projection because the lower end of 50 win simulations would need to be balanced out by 70 win projections on the high side. Keep in mind the 2015-16 Warriors actually outperformed their Pythagorean win/loss by 8 games (73 wins vs 65 wins).

I'd like to see the simulation of the 2017-18 Celtics where Hayward got a season-ending injury during game 1 and they still beat their preseason projection by 1.5 games (55 wins vs 53.5 over/under). Lol

 

[chilidawg]

Right, there is a ceiling where 60 wins would be almost impossible as a projection because the lower end of 50 win simulations would need to be balanced out by 70 win projections on the high side. Keep in mind the 2015-16 Warriors actually outperformed their Pythagorean win/loss by 8 games (73 wins vs 65 wins).

If you took the median projection and not the average that wouldn't be the case though, right?

Pushing the limits of my understanding of statistics here.

 

[slamminsammya]

If you took the median projection and not the average that wouldn't be the case though, right?

Pushing the limits of my understanding of statistics here.

out towards the edges of 82 wins or 0 wins this starts to be the case but median and mean should be very close for most of these.

 

[benhogan]

That's exactly what I've done with the Bucks. I honestly feel they are a better team with Holiday and Grayson Allen over Lillard. Middleton may be finished as an All-Star level player and Brook is another year older.

Jrue + Grayson + Jingles + Carter averaged 20 3pt attempts/game at 40% last season.

That really spread the floor for Giannis & that's a lot for Dame to make up.

Teams with Guards that can defend the PnR/go over screens with Centers that can drop/defend the rim will match up well

MIL has been my favorite UNDER due to a Rookie HC and all the player transition/style change

 

[radsoxfan]

Right, there is a ceiling where 60 wins would be almost impossible as a projection because the lower end of 50 win simulations would need to be balanced out by 70 win projections on the high side. Keep in mind the 2015-16 Warriors actually outperformed their Pythagorean win/loss by 8 games (73 wins vs 65 wins).

Exactly.

When you have a bunch of teams in the 45-50 win projection range, the system expects a few of those teams to be over 50 wins at the end of the year, it just doesn't have confidence about which ones.

A 48 win projection really means, we think with X% certainty that team will be from 44-52 wins. And if you have 7 or 8 teams in that range, a few of them likely will end up winning over 50 games (due to lack of major injuries, over performance, luck, trade deadline acquisitions, etc).

The Celtics being at 57 is actually pretty amazing, they think there is a pretty decent chance we win 60+. The gap down to #2 shows how high most of these models are on Boston.

As the same time, these Celtics have been advanced metric darlings for years now and have nothing to show for it. Let's hope somehow the end product isn't less than the sum of its parts again this year.

 

[the moops]

You all are way underselling how damn good Dame is. Grayson and Ingles are as bad if not worse defenders than Dame and while they shot well from three they don’t warp defenses. Teams are fairly content to give up a semi contested three from those dudes. Not so much with Dame. MIL offense is going to be sick. They only need to be middle pack defensively to be a really fucking good team.

 

[benhogan]

You all are way underselling how damn good Dame is. Grayson and Ingles are as bad if not worse defenders than Dame and while they shot well from three they don’t warp defenses. Teams are fairly content to give up a semi contested three from those dudes. Not so much with Dame. MIL offense is going to be sick. They only need to be middle pack defensively to be a really fucking good team.

Cool. That's what makes markets. 54.5 is the BUCKs over/under. You have the OVER.

Seeing DARKO & CARMELO estimates just confirmed how I felt about the BUCKs heading into the season.

UNDER
Bucks 54.5 - it's going to take time to come together. Stotts exiting on a Rookie HC pushed me to look at the Bucks a little more closely. Old Man risk here with Middleton's knee. Dame. Lopezes. Crowder. Giannis entering season 10, so they should start handling him with more care. Extremely Veteran Group (Portis, Connaughton, Cam Payne are all entering their 8th season) won't give a damn about the regular season.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/win-totals/

 

[slamminsammya]

Exactly.

When you have a bunch of teams in the 45-50 win projection range, the system expects a few of those teams to be over 50 wins at the end of the year, it just doesn't have confidence about which ones.

A 48 win projection really means, we think with X% certainty that team will be from 44-52 wins. And if you have 7 or 8 teams in that range, a few of them likely will end up winning over 50 games (due to lack of major injuries, over performance, luck, trade deadline acquisitions, etc).

The Celtics being at 57 is actually pretty amazing, they think there is a pretty decent chance we win 60+. The gap down to #2 shows how high most of these models are on Boston.

As the same time, these Celtics have been advanced metric darlings for years now and have nothing to show for it. Let's hope somehow the end product isn't less than the sum of its parts again this year.

yeah, but I guess I'd expect the distribution to more closely match Vegas. efficient markets hypothesis and all that, caveats about irrationality etc

 

[slamminsammya]

now that I inspect the Vegas lines more I wonder how well the models incorporate the tanking dynamic. depends how they are set up I guess. but the lower end of the Vegas odds are much lower, the upper end win totals are a bit higher than the models but not as much.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Jrue + Grayson + Jingles + Carter averaged 20 3pt attempts/game at 40% last season.

That really spread the floor for Giannis & that's a lot for Dame to make up.

Teams with Guards that can defend the PnR/go over screens with Centers that can drop/defend the rim will match up well

MIL has been my favorite UNDER due to a Rookie HC and all the player transition/style change

Within 12 months their perimeter defense went from Jrue, Middleton, and Carter with the second unit to Dame and Beasley while expecting a limited Middleton if he's even out there at all later this year. Brook is also another year older as is Dame who is also making a major adjustment at the end of his career. I don't see the case for the Over at all.

 

[brendan f]

I get Lillard/Holliday but even if you assume that’s a two win downgrade….44 and 47 wins is very low. There’s a lot more going on there than just contra-CW on dame-Holliday

View: https://twitter.com/NBACouchside/status/1716699594527035671

 

[lovegtm]

Within 12 months their perimeter defense went from Jrue, Middleton, and Carter with the second unit to Dame and Beasley while expecting a limited Middleton if he's even out there at all later this year. Brook is also another year older as is Dame who is also making a major adjustment at the end of his career. I don't see the case for the Over at all.

Yes. Even leaving Brook's age aside, I don't think people realize how much of the Brook! Experience was really the perimeter guys working their asses off to keep him and Giannis in good positions.

Here's a good video of what that looked like in 2020. Now imagine Dame and Beasley replacing Jrue, Mathews, and Eric Bledsoe:
View: https://youtu.be/ok5r_M4r6LI?si=ARcCaDULS6p53ot-

 

[HomeRunBaker]

View: https://twitter.com/NBACouchside/status/1716699594527035671

I'm on the Bucks fade for several reasons but to compare Lillard's def with his Blazers teammates to how it projects with Giannis/Brook behind him is a big miss. Team defense flaws expose players individual def numbers.

You read through these for a more accurate projection. Jrue gets angle taken from him and ballhandler may not advance his dribble. When Dame got angle taken last year it was a layup, dish for dunk, or open 3.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I also do wonder whether the projection systems are baking in some challenges for Middleton---either in performance level or PT. I suppose that depends how they figure in last year's performance.

Anyway, I tend to think Bucks will beat the projections of 44 and 47 wins. Dame will play harder on D than in Portland, and in a better system and he's a game-changer offensively. But I also agree with folks that the "they are the best regular season team" projections are not realistic either, absent a surprising surge from the bench mob.

Bucks may well be a better playoff team in this configuration, with caveat that while Middleton's offensive role is reduced his defensive role is inceased in importance now. Whether that is realistic is pretty unclear to me.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I also do wonder whether the projection systems are baking in some challenges for Middleton---either in performance level or PT. I suppose that depends how they figure in last year's performance.

Anyway, I tend to think Bucks will beat the projections of 44 and 47 wins. Dame will play harder on D than in Portland, and in a better system and he's a game-changer offensively. But I also agree with folks that the "they are the best regular season team" projections are not realistic either, absent a surprising surge from the bench mob.

Bucks may well be a better playoff team in this configuration, with caveat that while Middleton's offensive role is reduced his defensive role is inceased in importance now. Whether that is realistic is pretty unclear to me.

Middleton's uncertainty, or what is expected of him under these circumstances, have to be baked in to some degree. Personally, I don't think we'll ever see Borderline All-Star Khris Middleton ever again.

 

[Saints Rest]

Middleton's uncertainty, or what is expected of him under these circumstances, have to be baked in to some degree. Personally, I don't think we'll ever see Borderline All-Star Khris Middleton ever again.

Except when he plays the Celtics.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Middleton's uncertainty, or what is expected of him under these circumstances, have to be baked in to some degree. Personally, I don't think we'll ever see Borderline All-Star Khris Middleton ever again.

Agreed. If you had to pick one of these options which do you think is more likely: "Quality NBA starter Khris Middleton" or "washed and essentially done as a regular" Khris Middleton?

I sadly think I'd have to pick washed as more likely right now, based on what we've seen/how he's ramping up. But no particular confidence in that guess

 

[InstaFace]

Except when he plays the Celtics.

I guess last year when we played them without Middleton on Christmas we blew them off the court, and when we played them in Milwaukee on Valentines Day, Middleton led the team in +/- at +19 as they won by 6 (despite him only playing 24 minutes). I just don't remember him being such a difference-maker last season, but maybe I missed it. He was, of course, notable in his absence in the 2022 ECSF. But in total last season, he was 10th on the Bucks in minutes (801 MP, in 33 games), and in rate stats for them he was 5th on the team in PER, 8th in WS/48, 5th in BPM at +0.8, 5th in on/off per 100 at +3.7 (behind Grayson Allen at +4.1, and notably behind team #1... Jrue Holiday).

If we lose to the Bucks I feel like it's very unlikely to be Middleton that makes the difference anymore. He was able to slow down Tatum in years past by being very agile for his size, but like, what's the working theory for why he remains a Celtics killer?

 

[Euclis20]

I guess last year when we played them without Middleton on Christmas we blew them off the court, and when we played them in Milwaukee on Valentines Day, Middleton led the team in +/- at +19 as they won by 6 (despite him only playing 24 minutes). I just don't remember him being such a difference-maker last season, but maybe I missed it. He was, of course, notable in his absence in the 2022 ECSF. But in total last season, he was 10th on the Bucks in minutes (801 MP, in 33 games), and in rate stats for them he was 5th on the team in PER, 8th in WS/48, 5th in BPM at +0.8, 5th in on/off per 100 at +3.7 (behind Grayson Allen at +4.1, and notably behind team #1... Jrue Holiday).

If we lose to the Bucks I feel like it's very unlikely to be Middleton that makes the difference anymore. He was able to slow down Tatum in years past by being very agile for his size, but like, what's the working theory for why he remains a Celtics killer?

He hasn't been the last few years. In 5 games over the last 2 years, he's averaged 14.4 ppg with a TS% of .503. I'm hopeful that considering his reduced performance going forward, his days of dominance over Boston are done.

 

[chilidawg]

Nice piece on Lamar Stevens in today's Celtics Blog. I think this guy is going to end up being a key guy off the bench by the end of the season.

“Every day, every opportunity I get, I want to go hard, I want to push myself to try to achieve the limits that I’ve always felt I had but others may not have seen,” Stevens told CelticsBlog. “So, I feel like every day is just an opportunity to continue to prove myself. To myself first and then to teammates and just be a great teammate.

“He’s not afraid to stand up. He ain’t afraid of anybody,” said former Penn State assistant and current Fordham head coach Keith Urgo. “And that’s why the stars love him. Everybody who’s met him, all the stars from Donovan Mitchell to whoever, fell in love with him. And I think that’ll be the same thing with Jaylen Brown and Jayson. They’ll fall in love with him, too, because he’ll do whatever is necessary for them to be successful.”


https://www.celticsblog.com/2023/10/25/23929160/boston-celtics-lamar-stevens-penn-state-lions-den-king-of-the-climb-belt-jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown

 

[benhogan]

Nice piece on Lamar Stevens in today's Celtics Blog. I think this guy is going to end up being a key guy off the bench by the end of the season.

“Every day, every opportunity I get, I want to go hard, I want to push myself to try to achieve the limits that I’ve always felt I had but others may not have seen,” Stevens told CelticsBlog. “So, I feel like every day is just an opportunity to continue to prove myself. To myself first and then to teammates and just be a great teammate.

“He’s not afraid to stand up. He ain’t afraid of anybody,” said former Penn State assistant and current Fordham head coach Keith Urgo. “And that’s why the stars love him. Everybody who’s met him, all the stars from Donovan Mitchell to whoever, fell in love with him. And I think that’ll be the same thing with Jaylen Brown and Jayson. They’ll fall in love with him, too, because he’ll do whatever is necessary for them to be successful.”


https://www.celticsblog.com/2023/10/25/23929160/boston-celtics-lamar-stevens-penn-state-lions-den-king-of-the-climb-belt-jayson-tatum-jaylen-brown

Thanks for posting, good article.

Really hope Stevens gets minutes on a nightly basis. Believe Lamar can be the defensive answer against Butler, Bron, Giannis, KD, etc for 15-20 mins. Grant was a little stale defensively by the end, players were easily shooting over him like he was Semi.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Agreed. If you had to pick one of these options which do you think is more likely: "Quality NBA starter Khris Middleton" or "washed and essentially done as a regular" Khris Middleton?

I sadly think I'd have to pick washed as more likely right now, based on what we've seen/how he's ramping up. But no particular confidence in that guess

I am on the latter. It's kinda similar to TL, Lonzo Ball, etc, except Khris is much older. I've used recurring injury values for awhile and you don't often see a guy return from surgery, make an unsuccessful recovery from it, and return to his former self.

 

[InstaFace]

I am on the latter. It's kinda similar to TL, Lonzo Ball, etc, except Khris is much older. I've used recurring injury values for awhile and you don't often see a guy return from surgery, make an unsuccessful recovery from it, and return to his former self.

Granted you said "don't often see", but I wonder if TL isn't an example of just that. Came back and wasn't fully himself for a while, but eventually got it together by the playoffs. Seemed to have a lengthy, but eventually successful, playing-into-shape recovery.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Granted you said "don't often see", but I wonder if TL isn't an example of just that. Came back and wasn't fully himself for a while, but eventually got it together by the playoffs. Seemed to have a lengthy, but eventually successful, playing-into-shape recovery.

Did he really though? He was a limited minutes 2nd unit player after being handled all year with kid gloves. He's beginning this year as Ayton's backup after missing the last 3 preseason games with a sore knee. I still don't ever expect him to be a full-time starting center in this league. I'd go so far as to say I'd be shocked. For as long as he can physically play I'd expect him to be a trade deadline acquisition for a contender as a 2nd unit big.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Jaylen Brown, as I expected, is the odd man out of the touches and not engaged in this game at all. Mazzulla has to find a way to get him involved in ISO's as this motion/ball movement stuff is not his game.

 

[RorschachsMask]

I remember the debate here awhile back about if KP would be a big part of the crunch time offense. Tonight definitely would make it seem like he will be.

 

[luckiestman]

I remember the debate here awhile back about if KP would be a big part of the crunch time offense. Tonight definitely would make it seem like he will be.

Just look at this, it’s beautiful

 

[lexrageorge]

Jaylen Brown, as I expected, is the odd man out of the touches and not engaged in this game at all. Mazzulla has to find a way to get him involved in ISO's as this motion/ball movement stuff is not his game.

He looked better late 4th quarter defensively. They didn't really need his offense tonight, but no reason he cannot be more involved other nights. Had a cold shooting night as well that surpressed his scoring.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Truly, truly ugly game tonight. It felt like the Knicks were playing at a different speed for a lot of the game. And I think on offense the Celtcs were about as stagnant as they have ever been in the JB/JT era.

The Celtics hit 37 baskets from the field, and had only 17 assists, very atypical for them but indicative of the fact that most of the offense was individual players doing it by themselves. They didn't cut or otherwise move without the ball. Tatum hit Holiday who made a nice cut late in the 4th, but that is pretty much the only one I remember. The bench was mostly bad. JT, JB, and KP each played 38 minutes - that's not going to work game in game out, esepcially KP.

KP was the difference in this one. The offense from him was as expected: 30 points on good shooting from 3 and 9-10 from the line. (Not that we expect him to average 30, but we expected him to be able to have games like this). But the reason they won is because KP played excellent interior defense, blocking 4 shots and bothering many more than that. He's not Rob, but he's 7'3" with good mobility for that size and he evidently knows how to use that to defend the rim.

The Knicks made a game of it because they shot 44% from three and crashed the offensive glass very effectively. But at one point midway through the third the Celtics were outscoring them in paint points 36-18, and a lot of that was KP's defense. Mazzulla said that a point of emphasis was getting more shots than opponents - that didn;t happen today, the Knicks had 97 shots versus the Celtics 77.

I hate these flopping techs the refs call now, and the refs generally were not in midseason form.

 

[slamminsammya]

the Knicks are really tough defensively too. some guys were bound to struggle

 

[RorschachsMask]

Tatum 34/11/4/2/1 on a 69% TS.

Zinger 30/8/4 blocks on a 78% TS lol, and +13 in a tight win.

Joe and the staff just need to integrate Jaylen more within the offense, it’s going to be a big adjustment for him IMO.

I think lot of the bad tonight just looked like unfamiliarity, guys running to the same spots on the floor, turnovers because the spacing was funky.

The defense was mostly insane, their defensive upside is extremely high.

 

[DGreenwood]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3sgCwem8_8&ab_channel=NBA

 

[BigSoxFan]

Tatum 34/11/4/2/1 on a 69% TS.

Zinger 30/8/4 blocks on a 78% TS lol, and +13 in a tight win.

Joe and the staff just need to integrate Jaylen more within the offense, it’s going to be a big adjustment for him IMO.

I think lot of the bad tonight just looked like unfamiliarity, guys running to the same spots on the floor, turnovers because the spacing was funky.

The defense was mostly insane, their defensive upside is extremely high.

There was a stretch in the 3rd where they just choked out the Knicks. Jaylen is definitely going to have to figure out how to get going on offense. Porzingis looked like an all-star tonight.

 

[luckiestman]

Porzingis looked like an all-star tonight.

Second Team All NBA

 

[reggiecleveland]

Joe and the staff just need to integrate Jaylen more within the offense, it’s going to be a big adjustment for him IMO.

I worry that Brown is the third best player and the with the cash he is making he won't be happy if it turns out KP should be option 2.

 

[lexrageorge]

Truly, truly ugly game tonight. It felt like the Knicks were playing at a different speed for a lot of the game. And I think on offense the Celtcs were about as stagnant as they have ever been in the JB/JT era.

The Celtics hit 37 baskets from the field, and had only 17 assists, very atypical for them but indicative of the fact that most of the offense was individual players doing it by themselves. They didn't cut or otherwise move without the ball. Tatum hit Holiday who made a nice cut late in the 4th, but that is pretty much the only one I remember. The bench was mostly bad. JT, JB, and KP each played 38 minutes - that's not going to work game in game out, esepcially KP.

KP was the difference in this one. The offense from him was as expected: 30 points on good shooting from 3 and 9-10 from the line. (Not that we expect him to average 30, but we expected him to be able to have games like this). But the reason they won is because KP played excellent interior defense, blocking 4 shots and bothering many more than that. He's not Rob, but he's 7'3" with good mobility for that size and he evidently knows how to use that to defend the rim.

The Knicks made a game of it because they shot 44% from three and crashed the offensive glass very effectively. But at one point midway through the third the Celtics were outscoring them in paint points 36-18, and a lot of that was KP's defense. Mazzulla said that a point of emphasis was getting more shots than opponents - that didn;t happen today, the Knicks had 97 shots versus the Celtics 77.

I hate these flopping techs the refs call now, and the refs generally were not in midseason form.

That assist total for the Celtics seems to be a bit misleading. Seems like several times they moved the ball, got set up for good shots, .... and missed them. And then the makes came off of individual effort. Celtics also rarely got a 2nd chance, rebounding only 7 of their 40 misses. But Tatum and KP were amazingly efficient when they shot the ball, which will make them a really difficult team for opponents to deal with.

Refs destroyed the flow of the game multiple times. NBA needs to accept that not every call is going to be 100% perfect, and that flopping is best ignored completely.

 

[lexrageorge]

I worry that Brown is the third best player and the with the cash he is making he won't be happy if it turns out KP should be option 2.

He's already got his guaranteed coin.

 

[slamminsammya]

I couldn't disagree more on the flopping. it'll be ugly for a few weeks but if they stick with it guys will just stop flopping. the flopping is way worse to watch than technical free throws

 

[radsoxfan]

Jaylen Brown, as I expected, is the odd man out of the touches and not engaged in this game at all. Mazzulla has to find a way to get him involved in ISO's as this motion/ball movement stuff is not his game.

This will be fascinating to watch.

It will take 20-30 games to get any real sense, but it does feel like Jaylen might be the odd man out. Tatum/KP already flow well together and those 2 with JH and DW don't really need Jaylen. Obviously cant make much of one game, and Jaylen was just bad in general. But bears watching.

I was assured Jaylen on this contract would still be a significant positive trade value and get us draft picks + good roll players, worst case scenario. If Jaylen was turned into 2-3 good rotation pieces, this team might be better off... we'll see.

 

[radsoxfan]

I couldn't disagree more on the flopping. it'll be ugly for a few weeks but if they stick with it guys will just stop flopping. the flopping is way worse to watch than technical free throws

The biggest problem with the new flopping rules is that it gives the refs even more things to think about and more ways to mess things up.

I'd prefer the refs focus on not sucking. If they see a flop, don't fall for it. Move on.

These clowns don't need even more influence on the game. It's bad enough as it is.

 

[slamminsammya]

The biggest problem with the new flopping rules is that it gives the refs even more things to think about and more ways to mess things up.

I'd prefer the refs focus on not sucking. If they see a flop, don't fall for it. Move on.

These clowns don't need even more influence on the game. It's bad enough as it is.

hopefully the influence on the game is only a few weeks. like when they started enforcing the kick thing when guys shoot, you don't see that anymore. it isn't like refs are calling unnatural shooting motions all the time (they do but it's rare ish now)

 

[chilidawg]

Surprising stats from the box score, Jaylen led the team in assists with 5 and only had two turnovers (both of which happened in one mind numbingly bad minute). He also had the second best +/- at +8.

 

[Euclis20]

Jaylen has always looked less instinctual and more mechanical than Tatum (and definitely more than Holiday or Porzingis), it makes sense that it will take him longer to adjust to the new offense than the others. We've got plenty of time.

In the preseason game thread someone asked who would be considered the 2nd best player on this team. I'm not sure who that will be, but I do know that Porzingis should be involved in every crunch time action because his mere presence creates mismatches. Him and Tatum are going to be excellent together offensively, health permitting.

This was not a good game for anyone thinking the Celtics bench depth will be fine (4 points outside of the top 6 guys, 2 of which were the closing free throws by Pritchard). If Hauser and Pritchard aren't hitting their open 3s, they are both deeply negative players. It's not that they can't provide anything else (Pritchard can run the offense a bit and Hauser is great for spacing), but when they aren't scoring, it's clear just how big of a downgrade it is going from Brogdon/Grant those two (Kornet also provided almost nothing).

 

[Auger34]

Jaylen has always looked less instinctual and more mechanical than Tatum (and definitely more than Holiday or Porzingis), it makes sense that it will take him longer to adjust to the new offense than the others. We've got plenty of time.

Agreed.

There are definite concerns with Brown having to adjust to less shots (particularly because he’s a “tough shot maker” and his misses can look very ugly and not in the flow of any offense). Both Tatum and Jaylen hold the ball too much for my taste but Jaylen is definitely worse at that. There are some weaknesses off-ball (both on offense and on defense). His basketball IQ is mediocre and could really improve.

However, it’s ridiculous to speculate about Jaylen’s trade value and if it’s decreased after one game. Sometime I really think we all need to take a collective breath and realize that the guy being nitpicked and bitched about is a consensus top 30 player. He had one absolutely BRUTAL 60 second sequence (the close out and foul on the 3 was just awful). Before that, he had 5 assists and was working a pretty good PnR game with Porzingis in his own right

I have complete faith that they will figure out how to maximize his talents (staff, JB and team)

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The Knicks made a game of it because they shot 44% from three and crashed the offensive glass very effectively.

NYK crashing for rebounds lead to more than a few OReb but also lead to several run-outs.

Someone should do a study on Oreb vs. fast break points given up and figure out whether "crashing the glass" makes sense.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Fwiw I enjoyed that CJM and staff seemed to manage a nice flow to the game. Overall good timeout choices, went deep into the bench, didn't let negative runs go too far.

Love the ceiling of this team at both ends. They managed set defense well for most of the night and transition defense all night. They ran a lot, very uptempo. Lots of good looks, even though Sam and PP couldn't shoot. Half court offense is a work in progress for sure. Some of that is the refs eating whistles tonight, which is great, but sets will struggle with street rules.

Nice job finishing. Big national TV game for tne Knicks, everyone there, joint jumping, still the good guys won.

 

[Spelunker]

I couldn't disagree more on the flopping. it'll be ugly for a few weeks but if they stick with it guys will just stop flopping. the flopping is way worse to watch than technical free throws

I'm team this. Call the fuck out of flops. There were two tonight; it added a couple of minutes to the game. I'll take that, for trying to enforce that nonsense away.