raw plus minus should never be anything more than a curiosity. that people talk about it and try to draw conclusions in the year of our Lord 2023 is surprising to me.
2023-24 Celtics
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I kept refreshing this page to see when logic would prevail about this terribly misrepresented stat. What's it's comp...batting average on the main board?
The sample sizes people are using here to arrive at any conclusions are miniscule. But fans are also micro analyzing each possession thus far too so it shouldn't be a surprise.
Imo, the data isn't super useful until we start getting into the 20 game range. The other thing people need to remember is that the Cs are still learning one another. Aside from the Jays, everyone is either brand new or in a different role. That's likely to make for inefficient production, especially early.
8 games of +/- is pretty useless. We already know Tatum is a +/- superstar over his career
When we go to the bench I'd expect we see more Derrick White paired with Jaylen, with less Point Brown. White is a solid ballhandler and can boost Brown's production. Jaylen should be slashing/moving off screens in the HalfCourt instead of initiating from the top.
When we go to the bench I'd expect we see more Derrick White paired with Jaylen, with less Point Brown. White is a solid ballhandler and can boost Brown's production. Jaylen should be slashing/moving off screens in the HalfCourt instead of initiating from the top.
With Jokic on the court, the 2022-23 Nuggets would have the NBA's best offense and the 4th best defense. Without him, the NBA's worst offense and #19 defense.
BTW the starting lineup has played 114 minutes together and has a 127.9 OffRtg and 86.9 DefRtg.
This guy breaks down film like my son's travel coach. Everything always must be perfect or it's complete trash. lol. It's not that what he's saying is inherently wrong (though some is) it's his reactions are crazy. I suppose this is how he gains traction.
They tried a KP/Brown/Jrue/White/Hauser lineup in the first half and it STILL didn't look smooth. You're putting 4 All-Star level guys out there with an elite shooter......these on-off numbers are 95% familiarity problems.
The gap will get less crazy once they get comfortable with the approach on offense to making the "3 all stars who aren't JT" lineups work. Until then, probably in for a bumpy ride.
This team reminds me a lot of the peak Bucks teams in one very specific way: they are going to win a lot of regular season games without breaking a sweat, putting up an ungodly rating against bad and average teams. However, they'll probably find it tough for awhile against really good teams, because their default style of play isn't enough to just whomp those ones.
I think the worst part of their offense is the tendency of a roster clogged with all stars to lapse into ISO ball and chucking up threes early in the shot clock. The shooting-threes-with-no-ball-movement drives me nuts.
However, last night it felt like they started this way, then realized they could penetrate and get a lot of easy baskets. I think Tatum set the tone with some of his strong drives. I liked the way the offense evolved. Hopefully, as they get more comfortable with each other, they'll start zipping the ball around more; that's what they need against the top teams.
However, last night it felt like they started this way, then realized they could penetrate and get a lot of easy baskets. I think Tatum set the tone with some of his strong drives. I liked the way the offense evolved. Hopefully, as they get more comfortable with each other, they'll start zipping the ball around more; that's what they need against the top teams.
It helps that everyone in the top 6 is already very, very wealthy, even by NBA standards. (I guess DWhite needs one more extension.) They seem committed to figuring out the shot distribution and how to play off each other, and don't have as much contract pressure working against that as you'd normally see in these situations.
*We* can talk til we're blue in the face. *Players* will always talk about "hot hands" and everyone getting "theirs."
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/11/11/sports/celtics-offense-relies-feeding-hot-hand/
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/11/11/sports/celtics-offense-relies-feeding-hot-hand/
This isn't abnormal against poor defensive teams who don't resist what you're trying to do. The good defensive teams will adjust to deny freedom of movement which is one of the reasons why you generally see more halfcourt iso and less ball movement in 4Q of tight games against good defenses. The defense dictates what you're allowed to do....if they are denying passing lanes and pressuring the ball then the offense isn't allowed easily move the ball.
you're right, that's his schtick and probably how he gets viewers
it's a good way to review what the Celtics were looking to do on offense (& what worked)
BTW your son's coach is nutz, tell the dude to ease up
Is it just me or has JT taken a huge maturity leap? The arm waving and chirping has greatly diminished. He can be seen calling out defenses and his first instinct on offense is to look to take the ball to the hole. If that’s not there most of the time he passes rather than standing around or dribbling in place. The combo of Smart having moved on, the offense being initiated much more quickly and the seriousness with which Jrue and Horford take the game all appear to have reflected positively on JT.
I like serious Jayson Tatum. A lot!
I like serious Jayson Tatum. A lot!
Getting Smart out does seem to have subtly helped the culture, in that other guys have to take more responsibility, and the leadership roles match on-court performance more.
If Tatum has chilled out on disrespecting refs, it's by like 10-20%, and he could stand to go another 50% or so further.
Would be interesting to break down the fraction of times he complains where he's right. Not "arguable, could call it either way", but was just a flat-out missed call that had to be made. Because the arguable ones are what he has to shut up about, so that if he complains it's because he has a rock solid case that he got screwed - THAT would actually stand a chance of changing how officials view him and officiate him.
Would be interesting to break down the fraction of times he complains where he's right. Not "arguable, could call it either way", but was just a flat-out missed call that had to be made. Because the arguable ones are what he has to shut up about, so that if he complains it's because he has a rock solid case that he got screwed - THAT would actually stand a chance of changing how officials view him and officiate him.
This is my impression as well. Maybe he's toned it down a tad, but I saw him being fairly demonstrative a few times last night in the first half. This will probably just be part of the Jayson Tatum experience.
But I think there's truth in the rest of Montana Fan's post, such as:
He looks like more of a playmaker to me this year, trying to get teammates involved. He still has those moments where he tries to do too much, and he needs to pass out of traps faster, but he's bumped up his game for sure. He's been especially strong finishing at the rim; it didn't seem all that long ago we were all moaning about his problems doing that.
He has become extremely good at attacking gaps all the way to the rim, knowing when to take one more dribble, when to side step one way or the other, when to go up and under. There has been a real matter-of-fact calmness to it.
I still see chirping. I feel like he’s been killing it on the boards this year, which has been great.
Tatum has an unprecedented streak of increasing his points/rebounds/assists per game for 5 straight years that's probably done with (with the current lineup his usage rate just won't be high enough to get there for both points and assists), but he's clearly not done improving. Very, very nice to see.
Schröder felt disrespected by Mazzulla's challenge with 3:30 to go last night. As did his coach.
Mazzulla, to his credit, explains himself fully and has his reasons that sound valid.
https://sports.yahoo.com/schroder-calls-celtics-challenge-saturdays-033351967.html
Mazzulla, to his credit, explains himself fully and has his reasons that sound valid.
https://sports.yahoo.com/schroder-calls-celtics-challenge-saturdays-033351967.html
I have almost no sympathy at the professional level for this kind of whining.
Hell, I would argue that it is worth it just to get a data point on how Secaucus may see certain plays on review. Yes, I know I’m dreaming to think there is consistency but you never know.
Hell, I would argue that it is worth it just to get a data point on how Secaucus may see certain plays on review. Yes, I know I’m dreaming to think there is consistency but you never know.
Yeah beyond dribbling the clock out on the final possession of the game, I can't get worked up over anything a team does when up big late in the 4th.
Yeah Toronto, if you don't want to get "shown up" with a late challenge, play better. They got worked.
The fact that he won't increase his assists is a good sign for the team. It's great to see Tatum as a play finisher more often, getting the ball in good spots in the post, or with a slight advantage on the perimeter.
Mazzulla certainly didn't have to do that challenge, but his rationale for doing it made sense. I think developing the bench guys is a key part of Mazzulla's job this year, and this is part of that. I mean, no one would (or should) ever criticize a coach for not challenging there. But after the first lackluster 4th quarter bench game, he decided that part of his bench development strategy was to coach these bench minutes like they mattered, for the beneit of his players, and having made that decision it is fine, even important, for him to commit to that.
Whining about it is absurd.
Whining about it is absurd.
Max gives a good defense of Mazzulla's decision to call the challenge, especially after Pritchard approached him about the call.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/11/12/sports/joe-mazzullas-late-challenge-blowout-raptors-sign-he-backs-all-his-players/
In the above, Maxwell notes how when he was in Houston, Bill Fitch asked him to sub in for Olajuwon so that Hakeem wouldn't get hurt.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/11/12/sports/joe-mazzullas-late-challenge-blowout-raptors-sign-he-backs-all-his-players/
In the above, Maxwell notes how when he was in Houston, Bill Fitch asked him to sub in for Olajuwon so that Hakeem wouldn't get hurt.
Jay King also writes about it, if you can't get enough of Toronto whining:
https://theathletic.com/5055284/2023/11/12/joe-mazzulla-replay-challenge-celtics-raptors/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
https://theathletic.com/5055284/2023/11/12/joe-mazzulla-replay-challenge-celtics-raptors/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
Was gonna say same. There is one simple way to avoid your opponent from challenging when you're down 26.
Would they have felt more or less “shown up” if Mazzulla had declined to challenge that call but played the starters an extra 2 minutes?
PP was freaking out. He was "INTO" the game. I thought at the time it was a good choice by CJM to show that he "cared" about those minutes/possessions/players as much as they do themselves.
If the bench is busting there ass to help the starters in practice and coming in and soaking up both "important" and garbage mins then hell yeah you should support them.
If the bench is busting there ass to help the starters in practice and coming in and soaking up both "important" and garbage mins then hell yeah you should support them.
I don't think that anyone is losing any sleep over delaying Dennis Shroder's shower by 2 minutes. Or in the case of a Zach Zarba game, 14.
I am not sure what Pritchard did qualifies as freaking out, but I agree it's good to see the coach care, even in garbage time. All these unwritten rules are so silly
Zarba didn't use all of that gel in his hair for it to not get as much camera time as possible
It's really just as shocking seeing Denver in 2nd. I was skeptical about them until the very end last year because I didn't think a team with average defense could win the title, but with their offense and a top half court defense, they're gonna cruise through the west if healthy.
This was a quality win for the Celtics against a Knicks team that was missing Barrett but made a battle of it until late in the 4th.
They showed a great, varied offensive attack, different guys going into the post to make plays.
They got solid bench play from Hauser and Pritchard.
They won the Tatum bench minutes, +4.
KP took only 11 shots, but scored 21 points.
JT scored 35 including probably close to 20 in the 4th. He was good throughout but caught fire late. Had an abolsute dagger of a 4 point play while it was still close in the 4th. He was 7-15 from the field at one point and finished 13-23. He also had 7 assists.
JB scored 16 in the first half but colled off and finished with 22. But he had 6 assists against just 2 turnovers. I liked this play from JB - the sort of play where you could see him, in the past, take it in too deep with three guys around him and turn it over, but not this time.
'View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1724227573331194357?s=20
They showed a great, varied offensive attack, different guys going into the post to make plays.
They got solid bench play from Hauser and Pritchard.
They won the Tatum bench minutes, +4.
KP took only 11 shots, but scored 21 points.
JT scored 35 including probably close to 20 in the 4th. He was good throughout but caught fire late. Had an abolsute dagger of a 4 point play while it was still close in the 4th. He was 7-15 from the field at one point and finished 13-23. He also had 7 assists.
JB scored 16 in the first half but colled off and finished with 22. But he had 6 assists against just 2 turnovers. I liked this play from JB - the sort of play where you could see him, in the past, take it in too deep with three guys around him and turn it over, but not this time.
'View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1724227573331194357?s=20
I am posting this after every win, because it makes me smile:
View: https://twitter.com/StoolGreenie/status/1724259349173039511
View: https://twitter.com/StoolGreenie/status/1724259349173039511