Saw a link this morning showing that the Celtics have the best record in the league versus playoff teams. We have the best record, best net rating, best everything versus everyone. I think we remember the losses too much since there are so very few.
2023-24 Celtics
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Last year's Celtics finished 10-3 against the top 3 teams in each conference (Milwaukee, Philly, Denver, Memphis, Sac). Their current stretch probably means about as much as that run did last year.
Just off the top of my head, OKC lost to DET tonight. DEN lost to PHI. Since Dec. LAC has lost four games - OKC, BOS, LAL, and MIN. Good teams are going to beat other good teams every so often.
That being said, everyone being healthy (please stay healthy) I like BOS's chances.
Looking at Denver last season, who by all accounts had an OK year:
Started 4-3, with losses in Utah, Portland, and Lakers.
Lost 3 in a row in December to the Hawks, Pelicans, and Mavericks, then lost another to the Lakers a week later. Not a perfect analogy, as their stretch was against 3 play-in teams and a Dallas team that DNQ'ed, but still shows that teams can lose games against good teams.
Lost back-to-back games in January against the Bucks and 76'ers, which was followed up by a loss a few days later to the T'Wolves (play-in team and eventual 8 seed).
Lost 4 in a row and 5 of 6 in March, a couple of weeks after losing a game to Memphis (who was #2 seed in the West).
2 losses to Durant and the 4th-seeded Suns down the stretch.
Karalis, Smith, Lowe & Jared Weiss are discussing Celtic predictability.
I don't see it, to me this team's offense is still evolving.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYMLbVB0QrE
I don't see it, to me this team's offense is still evolving.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYMLbVB0QrE
I know Sosh loves to see the class half full but getting blasted and not competing in two of the losses to contenders worries me. Last year in the playoffs the Celtics were vurtual no shows in critical games. So I have concerns about how this coach / core combination are able to step up when they need to be ready. To lose I understand, but being not ready to play, is worrisome. I am not saying I know anything. I am saying that I am worried.
The thing is, the "glass half full" perspective has been right more often than not. They came out of the East in 2022 and very nearly did so again in 2023, despite a few of those bad games.
The pessimists were sure that bad efforts/close losses against Philly in 2023 and Milwaukee/Miami in 2022 would doom them. The pessimists were wrong. The pessimists thought that the series was over at 0-3 against Miami, and instead the Celtics put themselves in position to win it.
Pessimism seems more "realistic", but it's often not.
I'm not a fan either, but this shit does happen. There's only so much that can be drawn from a January regular season game, especially against a team we're unlikely to see in the playoffs (or at least less likely than contenders from our own conference). Last year's Nuggets had 6 losses of 20 or more points. The 2022 Warriors had 4 losses of 20+, as did the 2021 Bucks. Even champions have days when they don't show up. Hell, the 22 Warriors lost a 2nd round playoff game by 39 points.
Edit - a little more perspective: OKC just lost to the worst team in the league, Minnesota is just 8-7 over their last 15 games, Denver has slipped to 4th place (and home court is more important to them than to any other contender), Milwaukee just fired their coach, and Philly can't seem to keep Embiid on the court. Nobody is happy or even ok with getting blown out at home against a contender, but it's January, everyone goes through lulls.
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Also.. since when has SOSH been a glass half full place about the Celtics? If one reads the gamethreads they’d know this place is one of the most pessimistic places out there.. every loss or missed shot is an indictment of how things ‘haven’t changed’.
One of those games was a 2nd half of a B2B, on the road, and immediately followed an OT win against the team that has been the #1 seed in the Western Conference most of the season (currently tied). That is a game nearly all coaches will concede under those circumstances. Such a situation doesn't take place in the playoffs.
The loss to the Clippers can be blamed on a number of factors; no KP is an important one that will hopefully not apply in May and June.
I think we need to be prepared for the possibility (probability?) that KP will not play 100% of the playoff games. I think the Celts will be ok if he misses 1-2 games per series; anything more and it could be troublesome.
That's first time I've listened to Karalis - does he always say "used to play back in the day"? Yikes.
Anyway, Zach's been saying this about shooting more at the rim instead of kicking out since week three or so of the season. If Zach could see it, I don't see how all the rest of the NBA coaches couldn't see it. I guess Ty Lue is the first one to figure it out? Come on.
I think it's more about what Tatum said after the game about "it's hard to figure out who to attack." I think they had a hard time getting to the paint in order to get quality rim looks and/or kick outs because they had just played a string of games where they were hunting mismatch after mismatch and their offense had become:
Tatum/Brown somewhere above the break
Screen to get them on Luka/Kyrie/Herro/Robinson
Then drive
With the Clippers, there was no one to get into the action that sucked, except maybe Harden, who is a much bigger body than most of the guys they've been picking on, and so they got frustrated when they tried to drive and kick and then everything fell apart.
Normally, they would switch to KP at the nail and other post ups, but KP was out, obvs, and Kawhi was often on Tatum, and Tatum was VERY reluctant to try to post him up or drive on him.
I'm not worried about drive and kick at all. Karalis saying "oh, you just be aware of that and pick off the kick out" is just kind of dumb. The reason the drive and kick works is because if you beat your man on the drive, someone helps, then you get them in rotation, then you've got open shots. There isn't anyone to pick off the pass because they just left their man to cover the guy driving!
First of all, yes Karalis does open his show by saying he used to play. He played in Europe for a while. I guess he thinks it gives him some expertise.
I agree with the other paragraph you wrote. To my eyes, it looked like everyone on LAC was doing a good job on defense - including Harden, who held up a few times when Jrue tried to take him. But the far bigger impact was Kawhi, who was clearly the best player on the court. This game clearly meant a ton to LAC - both KL and PG played on second night of B2Bs, and PG apparently was nicked up (hamstring I think?).
Finally, I don't know if this makes me a pessimist but without KP and everyone else healthy, I think LAC is probably the better team. KL is so freaking good on both ends of the court.
Won two straight against Philly to close them out after going down 2-3. Won three straight against Miami after going down 0-3
Those all seem like ctitical games to me
Man I think that people forget that teams lay eggs periodically in an 82-game schedule. I don't think that's rose colored glasses. Look at the 86 Celtics schedule, any of the championship teams.
Here's one: https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198512060BOS.html
Another: https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200803140BOS.html
Here's four early eggs from last year's champion:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202210190UTA.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202210240POR.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202211110BOS.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202211180DAL.html
Here's Denver losing by 30 to Minnesota, then coming back two days later and winning by 34:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202302050MIN.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202302070DEN.html
Shit happens.
Here's one: https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198512060BOS.html
Another: https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200803140BOS.html
Here's four early eggs from last year's champion:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202210190UTA.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202210240POR.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202211110BOS.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202211180DAL.html
Here's Denver losing by 30 to Minnesota, then coming back two days later and winning by 34:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202302050MIN.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202302070DEN.html
Shit happens.
G1 Miami Celts up 5 at half
G2 Miami Celts led into 4th
G3 Miami Celts were blown out of gym from tip
G1 Philly tied at end of 3rd
G4 Philly OT loss
G5 Philly Celts were blown out of gym from tip
G3 Atlanta Celts led after 1
G5 Atlanta Celts led after 3
They played 20 playoff games, they won 11 and lost 9, and they got their doors blown off twice.
I have no idea how this compares to normal playoff teams that advance deep into the playoffs.
Here's two blowout losses in the playoffs by the 2008 championship team:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200805100CLE.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200805260DET.html
They went 16-10 in the playoffs.
To be clear, I was not making any judgments about being blown out twice. I have no idea if that is normal over the course of 20 playoff games for a championship contender.
I just went through the Heat's game log, they got blown out of the gym 3 times (once in the Finals). So, similar rate.
Looks like the 2022 Warriors were blown out once, maybe twice, depending on definition.
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In every sport….at every level. I know people don’t like to hear that the regular season doesn’t matter….but the regular season really doesn’t fuckin matter.
* Miami Heat last year
* UConn lost 6 of 8 games in January
* KC Chiefs 6-game stretch before Xmas where their only wins were Raiders and Patriots…and lost to Raiders in that window.
* On and On and On……
It’s all entertainment until the elimination games/series begin.
95% of this place is half-full (other than game thread emotions)
poor eddie was run out of here with his half-empty takes
Amazing SOSH could not argue the Cs way to the finals. The fact the team was good enough to make such a comeback makes the lack of compete in the first, and last games of the Miami series so infuriating. The Celtics were the more talented team.
For example tell me about game 7 vs Miami. They were never in that game and were not ready. To get blown at home in game 7 is not great. to not be ready?
You want to tell yourself that is fine and normal go ahead, but it was awful to come out so flat at home.
It is one thing to lose, but to not compete, it is a concern. It is not like they were not talented enough to get to the finals last year.
Celtics 2023-24:
Catch & Shoot 3s = 39.6%
Average 36.5 Open to Wide-Open 3s per game = 39.2%
Drive & Kick makes that happen, so more of that, please
(& less ISO pull-up 3s, especially from JT)
https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612738/shots-dash
Yeah the complaints-about-the-complaining are like 10x the frequency of the actual complaining. It's cattier than a sorority in here sometimes - "I don't like everyone's tone!" OK, whose tone? "Everyone's!". Like, quote the complaints if you want to take issue with them, but painting everyone with a broad brush and having it based on nothing but your own faulty selective memory is simply shitty posting.
I was tempted for a time to go back through gamethreads and categorize posts as praise/cheering, complaints, complaints-about-the-complaints, and backlash-to-the-backlash, and just track that data on a game by game basis so that we can all maybe shut up about it and just discuss some damn basketball. Then I remembered I have a job I'd like to keep.
Tatum was hurt seconds into that game. I don't think you can count that as not showing up. From a mentality standpoint, the Celts would have been much more likely to win that game if they knew Tatum wasn't going to play at all.
Well if they have a problem every other team is worse? The Celtics have gone 9-5 with 8 road games and only 2 of those games vs teams under .500. That is a really tough schedule for a month especially when they had three travel back to backs and two west coast swings. They have one more home back to back this month.
Edit - It gets ridiculously easier for the Celtics February going forward including only four more back to backs (three travel back to back, one with Brooklyn and another from Washington to Boston). They have only one more West coast trip which is against the dregs of the West Coast and Denver. Post Denver their schedule into the playoffs is ridiculously easy.
Last year's Cs without a functioning JT and Brogdon probably get swept by MIA. They simply did not have enough scorers.
I have no beef with you calling out last year's team for not finishing. Different team and coaching staff this year though. Laying 2 eggs in 46 games does not equal "will lay down against Miami like last year". We have a fantastic record against great teams.
The team is really good now, and has been good to very good for awhile now.
95% of the place is half-full because the people here are fairly smart, and "half full" has been the correct, balanced opinion regarding this Celtics team in general.
Yeah, they haven't won a Finals, but only 5 teams have in that span. Winning the Finals is really really hard.
I'm somewhat half-full, but I absolutely do not think winning the title this year is a given or a cakewalk. The problem with the doomers here is that their evidence for doom could apply to literally all other teams in the league more so than to the Celtics. That's not analyis; that's just emotional hedging.
Also.. ignoring that Tatum rolled his ankle seconds into game 7 is ridiculous.. as if that had no effect on the game or game plan. No.. the Celtics were just not prepared..ok.
+1 LOL
I'll never understand the sanctimonious board lecturing.
Agree with @lovegtm that you are hard-pressed to find a better place for Celtic takes
I'm half-full but also like a little pushback (even listen to Laker fanboy Jason Timpf).
Regardless, this team is still incorporating a new coaching staff & Jrue/KP. It has another leg of improvement IMO (even with zero trade deadline moves). Sprinkling in close losses + January blowouts could lead to more growth than SAS stompings.
The other NBA teams that could improve "as is" are the Knicks (OG addition + getting rid of RJ) and OKC (young & improving). Maybe the Pacers with Siakam addition. Morey probably has something up his sleeve to put alongside Embiid (besides an oxygen tank in the playoffs)
I obviously totally agree with this, but one thing I've been thinking about is that (of course) the players aren't robots and do tire and get dinged up and asking Tatum/Brown/White to drive hard to the basket on every play is probably not sustainable. How much "energy management" do you think goes into some of the ISO pull-up decisions where Tatum or Brown is actively thinking, "yeah, I know this is a lower percentage shot than I could get otherwise, but I kind of need a blow here"? How much do you think the coaches consider just how many drives per game a player can actually handle?
One reason I think Pritchard has been really successful this season is that he seems to be in god-like physical shape and he can sustain his dribble through more than one probe of the paint per possession and still be accurate with passes and make great decisions. Dude has a crazy motor (and knows he only has to sustain it for bench-level bursts of time).
Dribble drive into the paint is taxing, totally agree. If they are tired and it's an early shot clock pass the ball, screen, cut, post, rest in the Corner, etc. There are a dozen other things they can do to create positive offense.
Pull-up shots early in the clock are the only time the "Celtics shoot too many 3s/settle for OK shots/MAZZULLA-ball" crowd has it right. The team should look for 1-2 fewer PUs per Half, don't want robots just a higher % FGA. It will be interesting to see if CJM can get the team there by the playoffs, if not I wouldn't expect any offensive growth.
This is BS post. Not only is most of this board overwhelmingly positive (as it should be right now)
@reggiecleveland (who might have left after the pile on) knows a shit ton about basketball and his concerns are fair. I don’t think he backed them very well but whatever, he has his stripes from posting on here and being involved with the game
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The Celtics are in a very weird spot right now as a team with fans.
Basically no one cares about the regular season because we are waiting for the playoffs to see what this team can accomplish…regular season wins don’t matter that much because they’re supposed to win…but losses matter more because we are looking for possible chinks in the armor once the playoffs come.
Me personally, I am not paying much attention to the regular season. I love what’s going on and I love the growth of this team but playoff time is when questions will be answered. I am very confident in this team as a whole and I think they can win it all
I'm just pointing out that the Celtics were not "virtually no shows in critical games in last year's playoffs". They were 5-1 in elimination games. That is like the complete opposite of what he said
No Porzingis, No Brogdon and Tatum was injured on the first play. People can say this is the same old team but that isn’t the reality.
Look, I have plenty of respect for RC's knowledge of basketball but his "the Cs weren't ready to play in G7 because they got blown out" take is really weird to me. First of all, it's G7. The two teams know each other inside and out and there aren't going to be any master adjustments that win the series at this point. Second, the Cs just came back from 0-3 so it's weird thinking that they gave all that effort up to then but weren't ready to play the ultimate game. Finally, after JT got hurt, did many people really expect the Cs to win? I mean how good is a team with JB, Horford, DW, Smart, and a guy who is like 1/2 of JT, with a hobbled TL, GW, Hauser, and Pritchard coming off the bench. Honestly, IMO, not that good.
I too worry about the non competitiveness against the Clippers, and to a lesser degree, the Bucks on the back end of an away back to back.
I can’t get myself concerned about a game where Jaylen, White, Holiday, and Al went a combined 5-37. Yeah the Clippers are a tough matchup, especially when they force the ball out Tatum’s hands, but how could anyone be concerned over what was clearly a fluke shooting performance from 4 of the team’s 6 best players, while they were without their second or third best player in KP?
The Bucks loss sucked too, but the night before against the Wolves was a high level playoff intensity game, and extremely physical.
The Bucks loss sucked too, but the night before against the Wolves was a high level playoff intensity game, and extremely physical.
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Yeah, that's really not that good a team. Jaylen and DWhite also made major strides this season, so it looks better than it is (which is not great).