You're saying situations matter. Context matters. Totally agree. A great shot with 2 seconds may not be a great shot with 17 seconds on the shot clock or they may be pretty equal depending on who is taking it and whether the player is in rhythm and on balance and etc.I love advanced stats and maybe someone here can point me to where there are stats that factor in all variables. IOW, from what I've seen I can find breakdowns of what kind of three was taken, when in the clock it was taken, and who took it. But to my knowledge there isn't much data on whether the player was in rhythm and on balance and who was open that offered a better expectation of a made shot when the shooter shot it.
2023-24 Celtics
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Does overlaying Catch & Shoot 3s look similar? just moved higher on the Y-axis by 4-5% + out further on the X-axis due to much greater volume
Is Tatum dead last in Pull-up 3pt% among the TOP30 in attempts this season? I believe that's where he finished last season.
From Jay King:
Over 177 minutes with Horford, Pritchard and Hauser all on the court, the Celtics have smoked opponents by 17.6 points per 100 possessions. That has been a dominant trio when next to Tatum, but has still rolled opponents by 9.42 points per 100 possessions without him on the court.
https://theathletic.com/5155775/2023/12/22/jayson-tatum-celtics-boston-bench/
Over 177 minutes with Horford, Pritchard and Hauser all on the court, the Celtics have smoked opponents by 17.6 points per 100 possessions. That has been a dominant trio when next to Tatum, but has still rolled opponents by 9.42 points per 100 possessions without him on the court.
https://theathletic.com/5155775/2023/12/22/jayson-tatum-celtics-boston-bench/
For those interested in these things, Pags will be on CNBC in a couple minutes to talk about AI, Yamamoto signing and the next NBA contract.
Volume is actually pretty similar at the top: Strus leads in catch and shoot w/ 209, Doncic in pull-ups at 204. But, as @SteveF suggested, there's a lot more players taking >10 C&S threes (almost twice as many). If you squint, you can pick out Hauser here - in that cluster of 8 high volume shooters, he's the one with the highest % (144 3PA, 44%).
Yes, but only because Jordan Poole (26%) has been so gun shy that he's #31 in attempts.
Thanks for the work.
Ugh, is gunning more than Jordan Poole! a good thing?
Max Strus going with the efficient Catch & Shoot and is still only at 35% this season...Miami was only too happy to pack his bags and revive Duncan Robinson's career.
Mentally hedging and chalking these next 2 games up as losses, with KP out and Tatum maybe limited.
I'm super high on the DWhite/JB combo, but things get too thin at a certain point against a team as good as the Clippers have gotten.
Also, everyone seems to treat the Celtics as their Super Bowl, so they'll be taking the best shot from LAL in particular.
I'm super high on the DWhite/JB combo, but things get too thin at a certain point against a team as good as the Clippers have gotten.
Also, everyone seems to treat the Celtics as their Super Bowl, so they'll be taking the best shot from LAL in particular.
So I predicted W-L-L-W. Have a feeling I’ll be correct in the aggregate and yet wrong on every individual game.
I thought it was super interesting that on the broadcast today, Scal said something to the effect that the guy whose mentality/attitude is rubbing off on the team is Jrue Holiday.
Even though his numbers are eye-popping (except maybe his 3P%, which is 39.8), he's been so good for this team. The best thing is that he is always moving. And particularly on the offensive end of the floor - that prevents this team from getting as stagnant as they did last year.
It's been so great watching him this year. We don't talk about him enough. Wyc talking about signing the extension was a great sign.
Even though his numbers are eye-popping (except maybe his 3P%, which is 39.8), he's been so good for this team. The best thing is that he is always moving. And particularly on the offensive end of the floor - that prevents this team from getting as stagnant as they did last year.
It's been so great watching him this year. We don't talk about him enough. Wyc talking about signing the extension was a great sign.
Noon start today played right into the C's hands. Both JAYs were on the court at 11AM drilling jumpers with their trainers
Harden was nowhere to be found...
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qm8PH4xAss
I just watched @DGreenwood 's highlights (by the by, if I do miss a game, I always hit this thread, first, and scroll for his embedded UPby the by, if I do miss a game, I always hit this thread, first, and scroll for his embedded YouTube. It’s spoiler free and always appreciated, even if I don’t watch it every game). holiday's steal off of Zubac under the basket was a thing of beauty. He looked so dejected after.
Jrue was the #2 scorer on the 1 seed (and legit title contender) last year, and he's been very comfortable as the 5th option this year. Tatum/Brown/KP are all scoring 3-4 fewer ppg this year, but Jrue is down almost 7 ppg. That kind of sacrifice (along with hustle defense, rebounding and title experience) really keeps anyone else from complaining about a reduced role. I think most people were at least intrigued about the Smart/KP swap, but even the most optimistic probably thought we'd miss some of Smart's game. Not for a second have we felt his absence, and that's 100% due to Holiday.
Jrue (& a lot of White) have eviscerated any shred of Marcus Smart MIA. PP's recent hot streak from 3 is just more dirt on the former PGs grave.
All that being said I want the C's to throw a massive Marcus Smart Welcome Home party on Feb. 4th with all the trimmings. Videos of his Greatest Hits, Celtic players hugging him, Fans chanting his name, etc
Did you check the buffet?Noon start today played right into the C's hands. Both JAYs were on the court at 11AM drilling jumpers with their trainers
Harden was nowhere to be found...
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qm8PH4xAss
Queta = Real.
Just a massive development for the team. I'm not saying he's peak Robert Williams, but he might be 80% of that, which is just fabulous. I still think there's a room for significant improvement, too. He's still a bit helter skelter and is a bit of a foul machine, but everything is improving. He reminds me of a young, stretched out Nesmith in the way he plays and stands out on the court.
Just a massive development for the team. I'm not saying he's peak Robert Williams, but he might be 80% of that, which is just fabulous. I still think there's a room for significant improvement, too. He's still a bit helter skelter and is a bit of a foul machine, but everything is improving. He reminds me of a young, stretched out Nesmith in the way he plays and stands out on the court.
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Thus far he hasn't been much of a shot blocker either, only 3 blocks in over 120 minutes after today's game. He averaged 2 per game in 32 minutes in the G league last year. Be nice to see that improve, and I wouldn't be surprised if it did.
He's provides probably 90% of TL's rebounding (which isn't nothing), but he doesn't provide a fraction of his rim protection on defense or vertical spacing on offense, let alone anything approaching TL's surprisingly effective passing. Nothing wrong with that, all we need from him is to be a passable 3rd center (who hopefully never sees the court in the playoffs).
Wild, not that small a sample, and against almost all good teams (not a Tatum diss!):
View: https://twitter.com/byjayking/status/1738916597169840245?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/byjayking/status/1738916597169840245?s=46
To me, the ridiculous net ratings mean that the Celtics do, in fact, have 5 legit All-Stars. One of them is 2nd team All-NBA, and the other 4 are fringe All-NBA.
I can't really think of a team built like that in awhile (peak Dubs were too good for me to count them), and it plays out like you'd expect: as long as they put 2 or 3 of those guys on the court together, and the roleplayers are solid, you annihilate teams in all sorts of configurations.
I guess it's a long-winded way of saying that the top 5 are, indeed, all All-Stars, and that plays out on the court about how you'd expect.
I can't really think of a team built like that in awhile (peak Dubs were too good for me to count them), and it plays out like you'd expect: as long as they put 2 or 3 of those guys on the court together, and the roleplayers are solid, you annihilate teams in all sorts of configurations.
I guess it's a long-winded way of saying that the top 5 are, indeed, all All-Stars, and that plays out on the court about how you'd expect.
White took the leap they expected, and Al has adapted perfectly into a 6th man. Hauser and Pritchard have taken and ran with the 7th/8th spots. All going to plan.
+1. My 15 year old asked me yesterday if the team missed Smart. I said no. She asked if Holiday is better than Smart. I said yes. Smart had been her favorite Celtics player. As a Christmas gift I got her tickets to the February 4 Memphis vs Celtics game. I hope Smart gets a standing ovation but I could not be happier to have Jrue on the team.
The Celtics back court this season is as good as it has ever been in the 4+ decades I have been following the team.
Umm, I think you shortchanged at least one of our 5 All-Stars (or potential All-Stars)!
Bontemps on the Lowe podcast the other day was pointing out that NBA title teams of recent iterations generally had the "best player on the court" in the series it won (e.g., top 1 or 2 player in the league). The two then mentioned that this team looks more like the 2004 Pistons. Only problem? 2004bPistons had a historically good defense - setting multiple playoff records in addition to allowing 86.5 (!?!) points per 100 possessions after adding 'Sheed. https://pistonpowered.com/2017/06/03/2004-nba-champion-detroit-pistons/
But this team can score way better than the 2004 Pistons and I don't think we've seen this team really lock in on the defensive side yet.
I don't really like the Pistons comparisons. Defense aside, this team is just so, so much better offensively. The reason we think teams need a top-3 guy to win is that it's really hard to construct a roster with this many strong offensive players. Brad killed it, and that breaks analysis.Umm, I think you shortchanged at least one of our 5 All-Stars (or potential All-Stars)!
Bontemps on the Lowe podcast the other day was pointing out that NBA title teams of recent iterations generally had the "best player on the court" in the series it won (e.g., top 1 or 2 player in the league). The two then mentioned that this team looks more like the 2004 Pistons. Only problem? 2004bPistons had a historically good defense - setting multiple playoff records in addition to allowing 86.5 (!?!) points per 100 possessions after adding 'Sheed. https://pistonpowered.com/2017/06/03/2004-nba-champion-detroit-pistons/
But this team can score way better than the 2004 Pistons and I don't think we've seen this team really lock in on the defensive side yet.
Re defense: the Cs are 4th in it, but are allowing opponents to shoot 37% from 3. Minnesota and Houston, ahead of us, are allowing 33.2% and 31.6%.
Those numbers usually regress both ways as the season goes, and while I don't think the Celtics are elite at guarding the line (they allow a ton of above-the-break 3s by design), they have been victims of hot opponent shooting to a degree.
Yeah the 2004 Pistons were my first thought, and while this group may not have the collective defense, that team didn't have anyone on the same level as Tatum. None of those Pistons ever made 1st team all-NBA, and the only guys that did (Wallace and Billups) were still finding themselves at Tatum's age.Umm, I think you shortchanged at least one of our 5 All-Stars (or potential All-Stars)!
Bontemps on the Lowe podcast the other day was pointing out that NBA title teams of recent iterations generally had the "best player on the court" in the series it won (e.g., top 1 or 2 player in the league). The two then mentioned that this team looks more like the 2004 Pistons. Only problem? 2004bPistons had a historically good defense - setting multiple playoff records in addition to allowing 86.5 (!?!) points per 100 possessions after adding 'Sheed. https://pistonpowered.com/2017/06/03/2004-nba-champion-detroit-pistons/
But this team can score way better than the 2004 Pistons and I don't think we've seen this team really lock in on the defensive side yet.
I think they remind me more of the Spurs team that beat the Heat, just beautiful basketball. Kawhi wasn’t as accomplished as Tatum by that point, but he was about to break out into a monster.
Kind of like a combination of them, and a lesser version of the KD Warriors.
Kind of like a combination of them, and a lesser version of the KD Warriors.
Yeah, the 2014 Spurs should get used a LOT more as a comp for these "tons of talent but no 1st team All-NBA" teams. For some reason, everyone jumps to the Pistons, who were a weirdly specific case that might not get replicated.
I still can't get the '86 Celtics out of my mind complete with the Walton, Wedman, Sichting bench of Horford, Hauser and Pritchard. DJ/Jrue, Ainge/White, Tatum/Bird, KP/Parish....the only positional/skillset non-similarities are Jaylen and McHale. It's eerie from my seat.
The Pistons comp makes little sense. Tatum was EC Player of the Month for November, he has had a rough December (maybe SOS has an effect here?) BUT Tatum will be a TOP5 NBA player by the playoffs which will suffice for the NBA talking heads
My favorite Celtic stat so far this season: 20-0 when shooting better than 32% from 3.
SSS aside but they shoot more 3s than any other NBA team and while that makes some queasy it's the direction the Celtics are headed (so we should all learn to stop worrying & love the bomb).
My recent nitpicks have centered on Pull-Up 3s vs Catch & Shoot 3s process, with Tatum being the biggest culprit of low% 3pt attempts. Joe has this team taking Pull-Up 3s 34% of the time vs. 27% last season. Maybe they start reversing that approach, since shooting 3s well means 82-0!
They should also be working for more Corner3s.
Holiday (68.2%), Hauser (52.4%), White (57.6%), PP (44.4%), Tatum (50%) are hitting them at a high rate.
Also kind of glad Grant Williams (36.1%) has vacated Boston's Corner Office.
Tatum’s wondering if should start in the corner is so funny.
I would 100% watch the Luks Kornet Show, tho. He’s a star.
Celtics also are a little different because they have a guy coming off back to back first team all nba selections. They have a top 6/7ish player, like four top 20-30 guys, and an excellent bench.
Brad is just a fucking ridiculous lol.
Brad is just a fucking ridiculous lol.
I'm not really worried about the 3s. Obviously there's variance, but they're going to crash the glass hard and fix the worst shooting nights.The Pistons comp makes little sense. Tatum was EC Player of the Month for November, he has had a rough December (maybe SOS has an effect here?) BUT Tatum will be a TOP5 NBA player by the playoffs which will suffice for the NBA talking heads
My favorite Celtic stat so far this season: 20-0 when shooting better than 32% from 3.
SSS aside but they shoot more 3s than any other NBA team and while that makes some queasy it's the direction the Celtics are headed (so we should all learn to stop worrying & love the bomb).
My recent nitpicks have centered on Pull-Up 3s vs Catch & Shoot 3s process, with Tatum being the biggest culprit of low% 3pt attempts. Joe has this team taking Pull-Up 3s 34% of the time vs. 27% last season. Maybe they start reversing that approach, since shooting 3s well means 82-0!
They should also be working for more Corner3s.
Holiday (68.2%), Hauser (52.4%), White (57.6%), PP (44.4%), Tatum (50%) are hitting them at a high rate.
Also kind of glad Grant Williams (36.1%) has vacated Boston's Corner Office.
Honestly, most of their losses have been from the variance of the *other* team getting super hot, not just the Celtics being cold.
He truly is. Have you seen his guest takeover of view from the rafters?
agreed, though usually Pistons and Spurs come up through the topic of champions without “a top 3 star” and Bird in 86 was the mvp and at a level few if any have ever played at
Crashing glass on 3's is a recipe for disaster especially if Pritchard is one of the ones retreating. I def don't want to see that especially against teams who thrive in transition.
That was my memory until I checked. GS shot 40% from 3 which isn't nutz & Indy went supernova. Otherwise super hot shooting from opponents hasn't been a thing in losses
I see the Celtics controlling their own fate from 3.
I mean, the Celtics already do this? Usually PP is one of the crashers when he's on the floor, which helps mitigate the issue you described.
There is definitely a teamwide directive to pursue more offensive boards this season.
