2023-24 Celtics
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Will be interesting to see how things shake out (please stay healthy) but while the '08 team may have had less overall talent, KG was a force of nature and raised the orher guys on the team.
Watching KG defend KP would have been amazing.
It's a bold statement. And I expected to be posting in disagreement... but I'm not.
I was at every home game throughout the '08 run, and had season tickets from '08 - '10. When I think back on those rosters, part of what was so incredible was how well Allen, Pierce and Garnett complemented each other, while at the peak of their powers. Rondo was still a young second year PG, who was capable of moments that would leave you breathless, but was also inconsistent and nowhere near the scorer he'd become by the time they were facing the Heatles years later. Perk was effective and a load on the defensive end, but being out there with KG made him a different caliber of role player. The bench was strong by the playoffs, with House, Posey, Baby, Sam, Powe and Brown contributing...
But goddam, if this team doesn't feel even stronger. When they are on, I don't remember ever watching a team that I thought was more complete and balanced from 1-5 on both ends of the floor. The defense, the shooting, the ability to drive and get to the line... I remember thinking that '08 team was impossible to defend between Ray and Pierce from deep, KG and Pierce in the mid-range and Perk and KG down low... but holy shit. Where's the weak link in this year's offense? Where can you attack them on the other end?
I'm not going to say definitively that they're better at this point. The main reason is that for me, at a gut level, there was a level of confidence I had with the '08 squad down the stretch of a close game, whether they were winning or losing, that I just don't have yet with these guys. I suspect that more on me than them: some combination of recency bias and nostalgia. When you're waxing your opponents by margins as great as this year's team is, it's hard to wring my hands too much about that. And I think some of the confidence and fondness I had for the '08 bench mob definitely comes from how things ended up, and isn't necessarily reflective of how I felt in the moment. I think PP, Hauser, and Horford are an elite 6-8 in 2024, and one more reliable bench player - whether it comes from a trade or buyout, a guy like Queta continuing to contribute, or Kornet/Brissett stepping up at the right time - could have us thinking of this bench in the years to come in the same way we still remember the '08 guys.
So while I'm not there yet re: '07/'08 vs. '23/'24, I'm at a place where I could easily see myself feeling the same way a few months from now. And I didn't see that coming after Game 7 last year, or even in the weeks before Jrue fell into out laps.
TL;DR: I also fucking love this team, and they've been one of the best outlets for me during a difficult time in my personal life over the last six weeks or so.
I hope both teams finish the same way.
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Very difficult to compare eras as things have changed a ton even in just those 15 years. That team was incredible defensively, mostly because KG was god-tier, elevated everyone, and basically got full buy-in even from Ray. Offensively, I think they were merely pretty good and a lot of that had to do with the poor spacing. Rondo + Perk were essential players at various times but they spent a lot of time that first season playing 3 on 5 on offense because both could literally be left alone. Perk wouldn't even be playable against the current roster (or many current rosters, to be fair).
Yeah, the current team being so much better offensively is what leans me their direction.
Getting the 1 seed is enormous, and avoiding having to go super hard at the end of the season is a good bonus, so I'm hoping they don't let their feet off the gas too much during the "doldrums" of the season. Banking a sizeable lead on PHI/MIL going into like March could be very beneficial. Not that most people need it explained or anything but getting the 1 seed is big to:
-Avoid Philly & Milwaukee in Round 2 is pretty big imo. There's a clear top 3 in the East, and while I think most posters here would like the Celtics chances against both of those teams in a 7 game series, setting up the bracket so they have to play (at most) 1 of them would be a big boost to their chances of making the Finals. The expectation would be that a series vs either of them would go longer then one against most of the other teams we could expect to play in a 1 v. 4 matchup (cue the Miami voodoo though). Going 6 and 7 games in the first two rounds of the playoffs last year certainly didn't help the team get up for Miami (ECF kicked off 2 days after they beat Philly in G7).
-Increase the chances of a more favorable R1 matchup. I know they've had their trouble with Orlando, for example, but I would much rather play that team in the 1st round then Indiana or New York. You also set yourself up soe if a team like CHI/BRK/ATL/TOR wins a few Play-In road games, you're getting (most likely) a weaker opponent in R1 which could help facilitate a quicker series.
-HCA. Not just getting game 7 at home, but never having played more road games then home games in a series. Gives a team a better chance to get out ahead in a series and put the pressure on the opposition. Being a bit pedantic here, and I know they had HCA vs MIA last year and it didn't do much, but it's pretty clearly still valuable to lock down.
Best case scenario they can push to a 5-6 game lead in the East by the end of March and really start managing guys workloads and health without the need to go balls to the wall right up until the playoffs. Would set them up to be better rested and reduce the risk of minor nagging injuries towards the end of the 82 game slate that guys would have to play through/deal with during the playoffs.
-Avoid Philly & Milwaukee in Round 2 is pretty big imo. There's a clear top 3 in the East, and while I think most posters here would like the Celtics chances against both of those teams in a 7 game series, setting up the bracket so they have to play (at most) 1 of them would be a big boost to their chances of making the Finals. The expectation would be that a series vs either of them would go longer then one against most of the other teams we could expect to play in a 1 v. 4 matchup (cue the Miami voodoo though). Going 6 and 7 games in the first two rounds of the playoffs last year certainly didn't help the team get up for Miami (ECF kicked off 2 days after they beat Philly in G7).
-Increase the chances of a more favorable R1 matchup. I know they've had their trouble with Orlando, for example, but I would much rather play that team in the 1st round then Indiana or New York. You also set yourself up soe if a team like CHI/BRK/ATL/TOR wins a few Play-In road games, you're getting (most likely) a weaker opponent in R1 which could help facilitate a quicker series.
-HCA. Not just getting game 7 at home, but never having played more road games then home games in a series. Gives a team a better chance to get out ahead in a series and put the pressure on the opposition. Being a bit pedantic here, and I know they had HCA vs MIA last year and it didn't do much, but it's pretty clearly still valuable to lock down.
Best case scenario they can push to a 5-6 game lead in the East by the end of March and really start managing guys workloads and health without the need to go balls to the wall right up until the playoffs. Would set them up to be better rested and reduce the risk of minor nagging injuries towards the end of the 82 game slate that guys would have to play through/deal with during the playoffs.
I'll never get over the 2010 Finals. Nobody ever beat that Starting 5 in a 7-game series.
I'm convinced I tanked my summer internship in the week after Game 7. Just showed up to work whenever not caring if I lived or died, nevermind about the work I was supposed to do.
Here's a little stat from today's Jay King column in The Athletic:
In short, this team eats its leftovers (and yours too if you leave them laying around). The article notes that Kornet, Brissett and Jrue are driving some of the increased offensive rebounding but cites Mazzulla emphasizing crashing from the corners, and trying to win things at the margins overall as the key driver for the increased focus.
That passes the eye test as well.. feel like I’ve seen more players crashing the boards this year. PP and Drue quite a bit… and of course Al, KP and Kornet
they also seem to push the ball up court as fast as possible after every make as well… although statistics don’t seem to agree with that as much.
Interesting comparison to the 86 squad up and down the first 8:
- Alphas: Bird - Tatum
- Betas: McHale - Brown
- Starting Big Guy: Parish - KP
- Veteran all-star guard: DJ - Jrue
- Underrated 2 guard: Ainge - White
- Bench big/vet: Walton - Al
- Bench shooter: Wedman - Hauser
- Bench guard: Sichting - PP
I am 35 and that was one of the toughest sports losses of my lifetime.
My sister's boyfriend is a Lakers fan and the rest of my family isn't huge basketball fans plus I am a sore loser....so I had to go watch the end in a separate room from everyone else and marinate there for a little while after.
I'm reminded of this article from The Athletic from two months ago, about an increased trend in the league of crashing from the corners:
https://theathletic.com/5064489/2023/11/16/nba-offensive-rebounds-corner-breakdown/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
There was a time in the recent NBA when teams were more focused on getting back on defense than getting offensive rebounds. It was more important to stop the fast break and force teams to play in half-court settings than fight to get another possession.
Those times have changed. It is an opportunistic change now to exploit defenses that are too spread out.
During the past few seasons, there has been a renewed vigor for crashing the glass. Two teams currently average more than 18 second-chance points; the NBA average is 13.8. Offensive rebounding percentage also has climbed. The Brooklyn Nets entered Wednesday’s games ranked 15th this season, grabbing 29.2 percent of their missed shots. That mark would have ranked second in the same category in the 2020-21 season.
More interesting than the uptick in offensive rebounds is exactly where some of these glass crashers are coming from. It is not the big man in the paint grabbing these extra boards. It’s the players crashing from the corner opposite the ball — or “weak side” in basketball parlance.
The weakside corner is the perfect position from which to crash the offensive glass because of the way most defenses rotate when the ball is on one side of the court. With most NBA offenses being pick-and-roll heavy, the man defending the weakside corner shooter is often pulled toward the rim to help on the roller.
If the defense’s pick-and-roll strategy involves putting two defenders on the ball, there is an even more significant need to have at least one of the other three defensive players in the paint with a second one zoning up the weak side.
This Fastmodel diagram shows the basic rotation in these situations:
In this instance, defender two (x2) is zoning up the weak side. When the shot goes up, x2 cannot box out (never mind that no one boxes out anymore) both offensive players. This opens the opportunity for the corner crash, which is the four in the following illustration.
In the recent past, that weakside corner player would be getting back on defense to stop any transition runout instead of crashing the offensive glass. Today, more and more teams are using the corner crash.
On this possession in the Nov. 12 game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Portland Trail Blazers, Lakers forward Rui Hachimura generates a critical offensive board by crashing from the corner. Portland center DeAndre Ayton rotates to Anthony Davis, leaving guard Shaedon Sharpe to zone up the weak side. As the shot goes up, Hachimura crashes. Sharpe does not connect on the box out, leading to two points for the Lakers.
<clips and their descriptions follow>
The corner crash is a great way for offenses to steal extra possessions while taking advantage of most teams’ rules for defensive rotations, which require leaving the weak side to help on the ball (strong) side. Defenses must be much more diligent when rotating to locate the corner crasher early and put a body on him sooner.
Casual easy win with 2 starters not playing. I think this team can easily coast to the one seed while simultaneously resting a starter every single game in April.
Tomorrow's a big test, for which I expect everyone to play and everyone to go hard for 48'. Denver will be on 2 days rest, having only played Tuesday at Philly. And they really ran out of gas in that game - after both teams scored 78 in the first half (!), Denver lost the 4th Quarter 17-27. But they have everyone healthy and rested, so I expect both teams to treat it like a Finals preview.
Our next two "test" games, @ MIA next Thurs and vs LAC next Saturday, will catch our opponents on the back half of a back-to-back, so it might be hard to really measure anything from them unless they really rest a couple guys on the front-half game. And Feb 1st vs LAL will be fun, and I expect us to go all-out for it, but the team has really fallen apart the last 6 weeks and isn't really on the contenders short list anymore. So aside from Feb 11th @ Miami, we don't really have any other "test" games for over a month, until vs PHI on 2/27. It is an absolutely perfect phase of the season to give our guys some multi-game breaks. March, by comparison, will be a real gauntlet.
Our next two "test" games, @ MIA next Thurs and vs LAC next Saturday, will catch our opponents on the back half of a back-to-back, so it might be hard to really measure anything from them unless they really rest a couple guys on the front-half game. And Feb 1st vs LAL will be fun, and I expect us to go all-out for it, but the team has really fallen apart the last 6 weeks and isn't really on the contenders short list anymore. So aside from Feb 11th @ Miami, we don't really have any other "test" games for over a month, until vs PHI on 2/27. It is an absolutely perfect phase of the season to give our guys some multi-game breaks. March, by comparison, will be a real gauntlet.
Two stats I’m paying close attention to. Jaylen is up to 37% on C&S threes, his best number in years, and by a lot. Him being 33% on them the last two years still makes no sense to me.
Tatum is up to 34% on pull-up threes, 5% above last season, and slightly ahead of two seasons ago. I was pretty sure that the 10-15 game stretch where he was like 10-60 on them was a fluke lol, and it’s starting to seem like that’s the case.
If those two things hold true, good luck stopping the Celtics offense in the playoffs, I don’t care how good your defense is.
Tatum is up to 34% on pull-up threes, 5% above last season, and slightly ahead of two seasons ago. I was pretty sure that the 10-15 game stretch where he was like 10-60 on them was a fluke lol, and it’s starting to seem like that’s the case.
If those two things hold true, good luck stopping the Celtics offense in the playoffs, I don’t care how good your defense is.
Helps in the win category, but kind of a bummer both MIA & LAC will be on 2h B2B's, would love to see this team go up against other teams best just to see where they stack up.
We'll get another crack against Miami with proper rest for both sides on 2/11.
Clippers, yeah, we blew them out in LA and they were without Kawhi, and they've been on a roll since. So I agree with you there, we haven't seen their best against our best. I hope they sit a few people (Leonard especially) the day before. But in fairness, it didn't look like adding Kawhi would've changed things much that day...
Tatum shouldn't be settling for 5.7 PU3s/game.
JT should go back to last year's more balanced volume of 4.8 PUs/gm, while increasing his C&S 3s.
He is substantially better at Catch & Shoot 3s. Tatum hits C&S3s at 44.7% vs 33.5% on PU3s this season.
Plus the Celtics have many more offensive weapons around him this year vs. past seasons
Corner3 Mob
Jrue 60%
White 52%
Hause 54%
KP 1.43 PPP
+Jaylen rim runs
I'm happy JT has been hot from 3 over the last 2 weeks, but his career PU3% are a good indication of how he will shoot them in the future IMO.
https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1628369/shots-dash
Not all B2Bs are created equal. The Wolves were on a B2B (with a bad flight schedule) when they played that classic against the Cs a couple weeks ago, and the Cs have played well on most of their B2Bs (remember the Sac game after GSW?). The Milwaukee game was a particularly bad combo of OT, B2B, and 5 games in 7 nights with a lot of back-and-forth travel. I don't know if a rest day even would have changed a lot there.
I definitely will cut Miami and LAC some slack for being on B2Bs, but they could still play hard and give something to measure against. Even a win by either team wouldn't be a shock--they're both good.
He’s 34.4% on pull-ups since becoming a focal point in 19-20. Last season is the only year it was below 33.4%. If he can be 34-36 on pull-ups, I don’t really care how many he takes, unless he’s on a cold streak. If he’s hitting them at that rate? He’s going to be around 37-40% overall from three, which is awesome for his volume. 5.7 to 4.8 isn’t really going to make a difference.
Pretty realistic chance that last season was an outlier, tbh.
If he increases his C&S3s this season the same amount he has increased his PU3s (while returning to last season's total),
he'd be over 40% on 3s with his volume
which is even more awesome
Id love if he was able to, but that’s by design of the other teams defense. Teams are not going to leave him even when off ball, which is a huge reason the team has such ridiculous spacing.
If last year was the norm, id be with you, but there’s plenty of evidence that suggests otherwise. I get why people were getting annoyed when he was in that epic slump with them, but even at the time, I tried to tell people that it was 100% a fluke stretch. At one point, he was 8-49 over a 10 game stretch on pull-ups lol.
I want to see it continue obviously, but I’m relatively optimistic that he ends the season quite a bit over 34% on them.
Here are Tatum's #s year by year
Catch & Shoot 3s (CS) + Pull-Up 3s (PU)
2023-24 CS 2.5 attempts 44.7% // PU 5.7 attempts 33.5%
2022-23 CS 4.2 attempts 40.5% // PU 4.8 attempts 29.1%
2021-22 CS 3.3 attempts 38% // PU 5.1 attempts 33.4%
2020-21 CS 1.9 attempts 44.6% // PU 5.4 attempts 36.3%
2019-20 CS 2.4 attempts 40% // PU 4.7 attempts 40.4%
2018-19 CS 2.5 attempts 39.4% // PU 1.4 attempts 32.4%
2017-18 CS 2.3 attempts 48% // PU .8 attempts 31%
He's Steph Curry when he's Catching & Shooting 3s, but turns into Marcus Smart when he is Pulling-Up for 3s.
CJM talks about INTENTIONS all the time. Tatum's intention should be to initially move the ball so the team ends up with Corner 3s, KP Post-up, Jaylen rim-run, Tatum C&S 3s, etc, etc, etc
This team has a lot more space this year with TL/Smart gone. Tatum dribbling into an early shot clock Pull-Up 3 should be very far down the list of options.
I'm not expecting 34-36% from PU3s since he's only done that 2X in his career (4 seasons ago) and this recent 3-week run is more fluke than the norm.
Here's hoping I'm wrong & your right
Catch & Shoot 3s (CS) + Pull-Up 3s (PU)
2023-24 CS 2.5 attempts 44.7% // PU 5.7 attempts 33.5%
2022-23 CS 4.2 attempts 40.5% // PU 4.8 attempts 29.1%
2021-22 CS 3.3 attempts 38% // PU 5.1 attempts 33.4%
2020-21 CS 1.9 attempts 44.6% // PU 5.4 attempts 36.3%
2019-20 CS 2.4 attempts 40% // PU 4.7 attempts 40.4%
2018-19 CS 2.5 attempts 39.4% // PU 1.4 attempts 32.4%
2017-18 CS 2.3 attempts 48% // PU .8 attempts 31%
He's Steph Curry when he's Catching & Shooting 3s, but turns into Marcus Smart when he is Pulling-Up for 3s.
CJM talks about INTENTIONS all the time. Tatum's intention should be to initially move the ball so the team ends up with Corner 3s, KP Post-up, Jaylen rim-run, Tatum C&S 3s, etc, etc, etc
This team has a lot more space this year with TL/Smart gone. Tatum dribbling into an early shot clock Pull-Up 3 should be very far down the list of options.
I'm not expecting 34-36% from PU3s since he's only done that 2X in his career (4 seasons ago) and this recent 3-week run is more fluke than the norm.
Here's hoping I'm wrong & your right
I mean, he’s basically at 34% this season. Since becoming the focal point of the offense, he’s had one season under 33.4%. Seems pretty realistic that he finishes much closer to 36% than he does to 29%. Especially considering he’s getting a lot more 1 on 1 pull-up looks than the past couple of years.Here are Tatum's #s year by year
Catch & Shoot 3s (CS) + Pull-Up 3s (PU)
2023-24 CS 2.5 attempts 44.7% // PU 5.7 attempts 33.5%
2022-23 CS 4.2 attempts 40.5% // PU 4.8 attempts 29.1%
2021-22 CS 3.3 attempts 38% // PU 5.1 attempts 33.4%
2020-21 CS 1.9 attempts 44.6% // PU 5.4 attempts 36.3%
2019-20 CS 2.4 attempts 40% // PU 4.7 attempts 40.4%
2018-19 CS 2.5 attempts 39.4% // PU 1.4 attempts 32.4%
2017-18 CS 2.3 attempts 48% // PU .8 attempts 31%
He's Steph Curry when he's Catching & Shooting 3s, but turns into Marcus Smart when he is Pulling-Up for 3s.
CJM talks about INTENTIONS all the time. Tatum's intention should be to initially move the ball so the team ends up with Corner 3s, KP Post-up, Jaylen rim-run, Tatum C&S 3s, etc, etc, etc
This team has a lot more space this year with TL/Smart gone. Tatum dribbling into an early shot clock Pull-Up 3 should be very far down the list of options.
I'm not expecting 34-36% from PU3s since he's only done that 2X in his career (4 seasons ago) and this recent 3-week run is more fluke than the norm.
Here's hoping I'm wrong & your right
Top players are always going to force some shots, but I think it’s fair to say he does it less than pretty much anyone besides Jokic, and Butler I guess. His intention this year has been to let everyone cook, and for him to pick his spots. I don’t think him cutting out one pullup per game to get another guy a good look really matters. Then come playoff time, he cuts down his threes and ups his driving anyways, so that aspect of it doesn’t concern me.
We will see where he ends the year, but I think it’ll be around 35% on pull-ups, and like 38-39% overall.
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That's cool, and feel free to remind me later in the season if he gets up over 35% on PU3s for the season.
His 3-ball does look like it has a little more arc (post-Hanlan visit)
Pop asks a reporter if he is on drugs after he says that the spurs played "even" with the Celts in the first quarter.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knaSCRLRfWI
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knaSCRLRfWI
He said it was "a fairly even game except for the 2nd quarter" which is one of those things that while technically true (Boston outscored SA by 20 in the 2nd quarter, and SA outscored Boston by 1 in the other 3 quarters) is at best misleading and at worst ridiculous. He gave it the attention it deserved, with the confidence of a man who isn't going to lose his job even if the Spurs end up winning 15 games.
Other than the 20 point lead that the other team got.. we kept the rest of the game close.
Why is Wemby on so much of a minutes restriction? He was limited to 25 minutes in the C's game... and why aren't the Spurs feeding him the ball every possession down the floor? Pop is either not all that good a coach or they're pretty clearly intentionally playing to try and get another high first rounder to go along with him.
The restriction has come from the medical team after his ankle injury when he landed on the ball boy a couple weeks ago. He’s also been held out of B2B’s since that injury too. Without looking at numbers it sure seems that Wemby is getting a ton of touches offensively despite playing much of the time without a PG on the floor with him.
Speaking of Danny Ainge, he was just interviewed on CNBC. He’s at Palm Springs, apparently playing in the Pro-Am golf tournament going on. Man, he speaks so well, carries himself so well. Living in California, I never heard him much back in the day. Celtics did so well with him in charge.
I thought that was better than the typical make/miss game. The Celtics won basically every margin category, and held Denver to 102 points on a bad shot profile.
Obviously I prefer wins to losses, but I bet the team comes out of that one more positive than the general public does.
Obviously I prefer wins to losses, but I bet the team comes out of that one more positive than the general public does.
They had a lot of offensive success playing through KP posting at the nail in Q1.
Surprised they only went back to that action a couple of times in the 2nd half.