2023-24 Celtics

tims4wins

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Thanks again.

And again, I’m on record that this team will go down in history as better than the 2008 team. I’m sticking to my guns.
 

lovegtm

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This is from two days ago, I’ll check the updated numbers when I have time later. But these are the best high volume five man units.



The Celtics starting five smoke teams, but their strength is being able to roll out multiple lineups that just destroy other teams. Which that is tied to Tatum, as it really doesn’t matter who you put out there with him.
Narrative: "the Celtics are amazing because they have great starters. Their depth is weak, and Tatum isn't a true top player because he's surrounded by so much talent."

Reality: "the Celtics starters aren't that different from top starter groups in the league. But their bench is really good and fits well with them, Tatum makes any lineup work, and the other starters play great with mixed bench units too."
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Narrative: "the Celtics are amazing because they have great starters. Their depth is weak, and Tatum isn't a true top player because he's surrounded by so much talent."

Reality: "the Celtics starters aren't that different from top starter groups in the league. But their bench is really good and fits well with them, Tatum makes any lineup work, and the other starters play great with mixed bench units too."
Looking at PBP stats +/- is interesting.

Last year, the only non-Tatum lineups with any substantial minutes (greater than 35) that were plus were lineups with Brown and White (Brown, White, Williams, Horford, Smart = +24 in 71 minutes and Brown, Brogdon, White, Williams III, Williams = +13 in 39 minutes).

This year, Brown, White, Hauser, Horford, Porzingis = +25 in 66 minutes and Brown, White, Hauser, Holiday, Porzingis is +23 in 28 minutes.

We know pretty much any Tatum lineup is going to be good but the Cs ability to put Brown, White, and KP on the floor at the same time really makes a difference.
 

lovegtm

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Looking at PBP stats +/- is interesting.

Last year, the only non-Tatum lineups with any substantial minutes (greater than 35) that were plus were lineups with Brown and White (Brown, White, Williams, Horford, Smart = +24 in 71 minutes and Brown, Brogdon, White, Williams III, Williams = +13 in 39 minutes).

This year, Brown, White, Hauser, Horford, Porzingis = +25 in 66 minutes and Brown, White, Hauser, Holiday, Porzingis is +23 in 28 minutes.

We know pretty much any Tatum lineup is going to be good but the Cs ability to put Brown, White, and KP on the floor at the same time really makes a difference.
Yes, the big thing that changed for the Celtics this year is that non-JT Jaylen lineups went from awful to very very good. Brown is +6.0 in a large sample without Tatum: that net rating is better than that of all but 3 teams in the league.

This is definitely related to Jaylen having KP, upgraded DWhite, and Jrue to play with, but not completely.
 

InstaFace

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Edit: btw this includes a 10 point loss to the Pacers on Dec 4! Unsure of the total count on the +20, but it's even higher in the wins
That, and the Charlotte OT loss, are neck and neck for "most bizarre and inexplicable loss of the season".

Obviously, and blessedly, there aren't many options to choose from. But those two really stood out as "ok who are these guys and what have they done with the Celtics?" kind of nights. Every other loss, they had to hold our guys down and drive the stake into their heart because we just kept coming and coming and were never out of it. GSW OT loss. @OKC comeback. T-Wolves in OT. Denver game. The 2023-24 Celtics are harder to kill than Steven Seagal. These two games (and maybe the Orlando tournament game) are the only ones where we like fell apart late against a team. Even the 30-point loss @ Milwaukee was on a back to back with the team absolutely exhausted, against a high quality opponent. Maybe Clippers by 19, but at least they're a top team who had some revenge they needed to serve us.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Narrative: "the Celtics are amazing because they have great starters. Their depth is weak, and Tatum isn't a true top player because he's surrounded by so much talent."

Reality: "the Celtics starters aren't that different from top starter groups in the league. But their bench is really good and fits well with them, Tatum makes any lineup work, and the other starters play great with mixed bench units too."
Am I reading this right? What other team had 4 potential All-Stars AND the equivalent of Jrue Holiday?
 

lovegtm

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Am I reading this right? What other team had 4 potential All-Stars AND the equivalent of Jrue Holiday?
Yes, their starters are really really good, and it's why the Cs can have a bench of just roleplayers with mostly shooting skills and have it work.

My point was that people expect "great starters, meh bench" to mean "the starters smash everyone, and then the mixed units tread water", when, in fact, it means that the starters make those other lineups much better.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yes, their starters are really really good, and it's why the Cs can have a bench of just roleplayers with mostly shooting skills and have it work.

My point was that people expect "great starters, meh bench" to mean "the starters smash everyone, and then the mixed units tread water", when, in fact, it means that the starters make those other lineups much better.
Gotcha. Makes total sense.
 

DavidTai

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Gotcha. Makes total sense.
To me too, especially because most teams have two or three stars, so there's lineups with 1 or 2 starters and bench players, vs Boston using 2 or 3 starters and bench players. Means the starters can crank up the minutes if they need to.

(as an aside, I'm eyerolling at ESPN saying "How will the Celtics stop Luka?" and ignore the "How will Dallas stop Tatum?")
 

128

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Gotta believe Tillman will get a lot of time against Giannis if the C's meet the Bucks in the playoffs.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Here is the remaining schedule:

78898

There's two one-game road trips, including a back-to-back. What is stopping the Celtics from letting all of the starting five just stay at home for both of these? (Screw whatever fines the NBA might assess for the Bucks one.)
 

Ed Hillel

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I'd love Tillman to get 48 minutes against Golden State. KP can have the night off...
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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People shouldn't get their hopes up about rest. My guess is that they will continue to be strategic but they aren't likely giving all the starters games off together. At least not until the very end.
 

Montana Fan

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This is from two days ago, I’ll check the updated numbers when I have time later. But these are the best high volume five man units. It’s also why I think people writing the Bucks off are being silly.



The Celtics starting five smoke teams, but their strength is being able to roll out what feels like endless lineups that just destroy other teams. Which that is tied to Tatum, as it really doesn’t matter who you put out there with him.
This is what I would like to know. What’s their plus/minus when at least 3 of the big 6 are on the court and for what percentage of meaningful minutes have at least 3 of the big 6 been on the court.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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To be fair to that Mavs team, they’d been on the road for a while, 4th game in six days, etc., against a Cs team with two days rest at home. Sort of a scheduled loss for them.

But that’s the thing about this Cs team now: Teams just don’t have a chance in that kind of situation. Starter out? No. You lose. Shoot under 30% from 3? You lose. Plucky under-.500 team? You lose. Every time (unless you’re Charlotte).

We’ll see what happens on these upcoming road trips, but teams have to have a schedule advantage and play excellent basketball and have all-stars on the roster to have a chance. Otherwise, you get a beatdown in the second half. Sorry.
 

RorschachsMask

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I mean, I get the frustration. This is one of those teams that simply needs to win when it counts and the regular season doesn't mean much anymore. As a hurt fan of a Kyle Shanahan team, this discussion is all too familiar.
Everyone knows that, but the rationale behind the discussion is stupid.
 

HomeRunBaker

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My wish is that everyone appreciates what we are witnessing this season. We are watching one of the greatest basketball teams to ever take the floor in the history of the game.....and as I said a month ago, it doesn't even feel like we've peaked yet. We may be entering that space right about now.
 

tims4wins

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My wish is that everyone appreciates what we are witnessing this season. We are watching one of the greatest basketball teams to ever take the floor in the history of the game.....and as I said a month ago, it doesn't even feel like we've peaked yet. We may be entering that space right about now.
I was only 5 in 1986, so I can safely say this is the best Celtics team I have ever watched. May they steamroll through the playoffs and hang banner 18 in June.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I was only 5 in 1986, so I can safely say this is the best Celtics team I have ever watched. May they steamroll through the playoffs and hang banner 18 in June.
Eerie to me how similar these seasons, and the personnel, feel. Note that the '86 team was one of the few in Celtics history to roll right throught the playoffs without as much as a sweat. We won 13 of the first 14 games of those playoffs. Even the great Auerbach teams were pushed to 7 games in many playoff series....some even by .500 teams, and of course we know how 2008 went with those Game 7's.

As has been said before....
Bird - Tatum (1)
McHale - Jaylen (1a)
Parish - Porzingis
Ainge - White
DJ - Jrue
Walton - Horford
Sichting - Pritchard
Wedman - Hauser
 
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tims4wins

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Eerie to me how similar these seasons, and the personnel, feel. Note that the '86 team was one of the few in Celtics history to roll right throught the playoffs without as much as a sweat. We won 13 of the first 14 games of those playoffs. Even the great Auerbach teams were pushed to 7 games in many playoff series....some even by .500 teams, and of course we know how 2008 went with those Game 7's.
That's what I'm hoping for (we all are, obviously). No more playing with their food and dropping home elimination games up 3-1 or whatever. Close out every series at first chance.
 

Mooch

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My wish is that everyone appreciates what we are witnessing this season. We are watching one of the greatest basketball teams to ever take the floor in the history of the game.....and as I said a month ago, it doesn't even feel like we've peaked yet. We may be entering that space right about now.
Yep. This team is barreling into “all-time great” territory. Please, stay healthy.
 

GreenMonster49

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Eerie to me how similar these seasons, and the personnel, feel. Note that the '86 team was one of the few in Celtics history to roll right throught the playoffs without as much as a sweat. We won 13 of the first 14 games of those playoffs. Even the great Auerbach teams were pushed to 7 games in many playoff series....some even by .500 teams, and of course we know how 2008 went with those Game 7's.

As has been said before....
Bird - Tatum (1)
McHale - Jaylen (1a)
Parish - Porzingis
Ainge - White
DJ - Jrue
Walton - Horford
Sichting - Pritchard
Wedman - Hauser
And instead of Greg Kite (38% FG, 39% FT) as the next big man, we have Kornet (70% FG, 89% FT).
 

RorschachsMask

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Celtics shot 11-15 against Luka, and he was even worse than that. He defended Jaylen and Tatum for 14 possessions, the team scored 28 points on those possessions. They had to send Luka help constantly, and other guys were wide open because of it.
 

InstaFace

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... and of course we know how 2008 went with those Game 7's.
And if we don't, someone could just ask Al Horford. I remember thinking "who the hell is this Horford guy, he's just a rookie but he's killing us, I thought we only had to worry about Joe Johnson... maybe this team isn't as great as I thought it was..."
 

benhogan

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Celtics shot 11-15 against Luka, and he was even worse than that. He defended Jaylen and Tatum for 14 possessions, the team scored 28 points on those possessions. They had to send Luka help constantly, and other guys were wide open because of it.
Luka has ZERO interest in playing defense.

Luka Math: give up baskets quickly so I can get back on offense & score more POINTZ!
 

HomeRunBaker

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And if we don't, someone could just ask Al Horford. I remember thinking "who the hell is this Horford guy, he's just a rookie but he's killing us, I thought we only had to worry about Joe Johnson... maybe this team isn't as great as I thought it was..."
I was at one of the Atlanta games we drove down from NC. It may have been G6….complete no-show. The C’s played with all the energy of a January game in Charlotte.
 

benhogan

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My wish is that everyone appreciates what we are witnessing this season. We are watching one of the greatest basketball teams to ever take the floor in the history of the game.....and as I said a month ago, it doesn't even feel like we've peaked yet. We may be entering that space right about now.
The Net Difference is eventually going to wake up the NBA Media that just picks last year's winner.

Do you know the Celtics record ATS this season?
 

TomTerrific

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Luka has ZERO interest in playing defense.

Luka Math: give up baskets quickly so I can get back on offense & score more POINTZ!
OK, since we all believe Luka doesn't offer much in the way of defense, do we have any metrics that show the impact of that? Like, how does his fantastic offense net out against his bad defense?
 

bigq

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And if we don't, someone could just ask Al Horford. I remember thinking "who the hell is this Horford guy, he's just a rookie but he's killing us, I thought we only had to worry about Joe Johnson... maybe this team isn't as great as I thought it was..."
The Game 7 box score from that series is fun to look back on. Atlanta scored just 26 points in the first half on the way to getting steamrolled in a 99-65 Celtics victory. Atlanta shot .29 from the floor for the game. Ubuntu was in full effect.
 

tims4wins

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Heard a stat on last night’s telecast that Celts starters average 92.5 ppg which is the highest since the 87 team. Unclear whether they meant Celtics or all of the NBA. @Brand Name ??
 

Humphrey

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To be fair to that Mavs team, they’d been on the road for a while, 4th game in six days, etc., against a Cs team with two days rest at home. Sort of a scheduled loss for them.

But that’s the thing about this Cs team now: Teams just don’t have a chance in that kind of situation. Starter out? No. You lose. Shoot under 30% from 3? You lose. Plucky under-.500 team? You lose. Every time (unless you’re Charlotte).

We’ll see what happens on these upcoming road trips, but teams have to have a schedule advantage and play excellent basketball and have all-stars on the roster to have a chance. Otherwise, you get a beatdown in the second half. Sorry.
This has to be a bit demoralizing to the opponent
1. We've given up 36 points in the first 11 minutes, maybe we can turn that around a bit.
2. Wait, what, Tatum hasn't scored yet?
 

Brand Name

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Heard a stat on last night’s telecast that Celts starters average 92.5 ppg which is the highest since the 87 team. Unclear whether they meant Celtics or all of the NBA. @Brand Name ??
Sounds like a Celts-specific stat. My rule for when I hear things I can't confirm is I consider the source: National broadcast I'd assume league at large, an RSN I'd assume applies to the broadcast's specific team.

1986-87 Boston was at 99.9 by Bird/McHale/Parish/DJ/Ainge across all games. Further confirmed by the 2004-05 Suns being at 92.9, by all games played by this group: ISO Joe, Marion's incredible shooting mechanics, New York's 2010 LeBron consolation prize, Mr. I got traded 4 Times in the summer of 2009, and Tony Parker's head bonker.