2023-24 Celtics

[InstaFace]

I've been banging the drum since before the trade deadline about number one above---that to me is far and away the biggest threat. Fortunately, there's only a couple guys in the league who fit that description and one of them (Embiid) both struggles against Cetlics/Horford and is highly likely to be well below 100% this playoffs. It's really Jokic and Giannis here.

I don't think 5 shooters is speifically a risk, or related to Porzingis. Obviously, if someone is hitting 40-50% of threes at volume that's an issue but I do not think Porzingis' defenisvely is any weak point against that (I get he's limited on perimeter, but there isn't a team that can realistically put five out there with this thread and also defend him at other end). So that one, to me, isn't a real threat.

I think the other big risk is related but distinct---rebounding/bullyball. We've seen Celtics have problems with physicality - the Minnesota game, and to a degree (not in terms of rebouding, but in terms of physiicality on drives) the first OKC game. Tillman helps some here, but is only going to play so much. They are solid rebounding wise everywhere, but there's no great rebounder on the team - they gang-rebound well, Tatum is sneakily good as is Jrue, but they don't have a beast. Teams that play two bigs and/or a big and a widebody can get enough offensive rebounds to be an issue. We saw this a bit with Atlanta. I don't think there's an obvious team save possibly Minnesota who can do this in their natural rotation, but someone might try to go bigger to win the possession game. Celtics aren't huge physically---though they are solid-average. Miami scares me just a little on physicality. The challenge of a bigger team defending the other way is the Celtics reponse.

Other than those two - a big post player blwoing up the defense, and bigs on the boards or physically giving them trouble - the Celtics losses are in four categories that are all kind of flukey/unlikely: they shoot 25% or less on threes (will happen a couple times in playoffs for sure, but not super likely to happen 4-5 times in a series); the other team shoots a Martin-like +50% on threes (will happen, unlikely to happen 4-5 times); they don't play focused (possibly, but a lot less likely in playoffs than in Atlanta in March); and someone out-switches them...which I think only Clippers have the guys to do.

To be clear, the risk with regard to another team having lots of shooters isn't that they will take Porzingis off the dribble on the perimeter, but rather that Porzingis can't keep himself just on the edge of the paint as a default position (to help on drives) and then recover with a single step if it's kicked to his guy. He can contest shots plenty well, and stay with a driving guard decently enough (mostly because he can block from behind).

As to rebounding, @SteveF had some good stats on how we rank in the advanced rebounding metrics he's looking at, perhaps he can refresh that. My recollection is that we're "fine", not great but that it's not some particular weakness. Plus, you need very specific personnel to exploit it, and picking up an Andre Drummond comes with limitations elsewhere that can make the move a net negative.

Cleaning The Glass has some basic team stats available:

- On offense, at 27.3%, the Celtics are slightly better than average (#12) at getting rebounds.
- On defense, at 25.8%, the Celtics are 75th-percentile (#7) at preventing offensive rebounds. This stands in opposition to your worry.
- Among top-10 teams, those better at getting ORBs than us include Denver (#6), the Knicks (#1) and Phoenix (#7). Most of the league's best offensive rebounding teams (Utah, Golden State, Portland) are not among the best teams in the league.
- The one thing they pick out that we are decisively bad at is generating turnovers on defense. Yes, we can all think of times Jaylen has jumped a passing route and gone the other way for an instant dunk. But rate-wise, we generate turnovers on 12.1% of defensive possessions (league-average: 13.6%), which is 28th / 30 in the league. We are, however, equally good at not turning it over on offense (12.0%, #2).
- Top-10 teams who are very good at generating turnovers on defense include OKC (#1, 15.7%, as we saw last night), Orlando (#2, 15.5%), and Minnesota (#6, 14.5%). Miami's #7 but I'm not worried about it the way I've been in past years. Among the only teams worse than us are Milwaukee, who at 11.8% are #30, dead last in the league.
- Meanwhile, we are the #1 defensive team by a wide, wide margin at something else also very important: preventing FT attempts. We concede 14.5 FTs made per 100 opponent FGA, with league average being 19.3. Only one other team (the Lakers) is even below 17.1, and teams like OKC are way behind (20.6 FTs / 100 FGA, #24 in the league - which makes the FT parade last night kinda ironic). Denver is 17th, basically league average at this.

If someone has done some film breakdown that shows how we're conceding offensive rebounds that better tactics / coaching would have prevented, I haven't seen it. I've probably seen a few failures to box out, where we let someone come straight down the lane for a putback - but honestly, those are pretty rare, and every team has their slip-ups.

I do agree about the Clippers' personnel being a unique problem. If they get through a playoff series healthy and we start seeing them really exploit their depth and two-way versatility (And how deadly they are in transition), maybe we'll need to talk a bit more about them specifically. Other than Denver, I think they're perhaps the second-worst matchup for us.

 

[lovegtm]

Can we make a thread similar to "A Time to Worry" from last year, about concerns re the C's upcoming playoff run?

 

[teddykgb]

It’s a really good point that they’re overall much cleaner on turnovers this year. Jaylen still hands the other team the ball 2/3 times a game when he decides to try to dribble but they’ve improved a ton on live ball turnovers. Probably gets worse in the playoffs as things slow down and teams focus but it felt like a much more significant potential Achilles heel in the past

 

[lovegtm]

It’s a really good point that they’re overall much cleaner on turnovers this year. Jaylen still hands the other team the ball 2/3 times a game when he decides to try to dribble but they’ve improved a ton on live ball turnovers. Probably gets worse in the playoffs as things slow down and teams focus but it felt like a much more significant potential Achilles heel in the past

Jaylen's only averaging 2.3 turnovers a game, so this is more a perception vs reality thing. He probably actually averages 1 dribble turnover or so a game.

He dribbles it off his foot and recovers it more often than you'd like, so that probably creates the feeling that it happens a lot more than it does.

Well, that, and 2023 Game 7 PTSD....

 

[Saints Rest]

Can we make a thread similar to "A Time to Worry" from last year, about concerns re the C's upcoming playoff run?

The one thing that 23+ years in SoSH, combined with an equal run of multiple Boston teams entering the playoffs as a favorite, is that this board has abilities to inflate the skill sets of potential playoff opponents to levels that would make Lou Holtz blush.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Can we make a thread similar to "A Time to Worry" from last year, about concerns re the C's upcoming playoff run?

That would be a splendid idea - it allows for free range angsting while we can use other threads to discuss what is actually happening. Most of us are aware of what the risks are so proactive complaints about ISO dribbling or how Mazzulla will be outfoxed by X coach aren't necessarily additive but people need a place to worry so lets give them a home.

 

[dhellers]

Lets not forget that the celts are matchup nightmares for everyone, esp if the 3s are falling at season average. This tells me that key to #18 is to play well. Sort of a duh relevatuon except it highlights the importance of good mental and physical health.-- playing relatively great is not necessary, playing consistently well will do the job.

Iow: the biggest concern is getting wore down more than their eventful opponents. Does that mean husbanding your resources to lessen cumulative fatigue, or pushing hard to finish series quickly?

Given the last few years, I lean toward the latter . As gisnnis said after his championship season , they "did not play with their food"

 

[jablo1312]

To be clear, the risk with regard to another team having lots of shooters isn't that they will take Porzingis off the dribble on the perimeter, but rather that Porzingis can't keep himself just on the edge of the paint as a default position (to help on drives) and then recover with a single step if it's kicked to his guy. He can contest shots plenty well, and stay with a driving guard decently enough (mostly because he can block from behind).

As to rebounding, @SteveF had some good stats on how we rank in the advanced rebounding metrics he's looking at, perhaps he can refresh that. My recollection is that we're "fine", not great but that it's not some particular weakness. Plus, you need very specific personnel to exploit it, and picking up an Andre Drummond comes with limitations elsewhere that can make the move a net negative.

Cleaning The Glass has some basic team stats available:

- On offense, at 27.3%, the Celtics are slightly better than average (#12) at getting rebounds.
- On defense, at 25.8%, the Celtics are 75th-percentile (#7) at preventing offensive rebounds. This stands in opposition to your worry.
- Among top-10 teams, those better at getting ORBs than us include Denver (#6), the Knicks (#1) and Phoenix (#7). Most of the league's best offensive rebounding teams (Utah, Golden State, Portland) are not among the best teams in the league.
- The one thing they pick out that we are decisively bad at is generating turnovers on defense. Yes, we can all think of times Jaylen has jumped a passing route and gone the other way for an instant dunk. But rate-wise, we generate turnovers on 12.1% of defensive possessions (league-average: 13.6%), which is 28th / 30 in the league. We are, however, equally good at not turning it over on offense (12.0%, #2).
- Top-10 teams who are very good at generating turnovers on defense include OKC (#1, 15.7%, as we saw last night), Orlando (#2, 15.5%), and Minnesota (#6, 14.5%). Miami's #7 but I'm not worried about it the way I've been in past years. Among the only teams worse than us are Milwaukee, who at 11.8% are #30, dead last in the league.
- Meanwhile, we are the #1 defensive team by a wide, wide margin at something else also very important: preventing FT attempts. We concede 14.5 FTs made per 100 opponent FGA, with league average being 19.3. Only one other team (the Lakers) is even below 17.1, and teams like OKC are way behind (20.6 FTs / 100 FGA, #24 in the league - which makes the FT parade last night kinda ironic). Denver is 17th, basically league average at this.

If someone has done some film breakdown that shows how we're conceding offensive rebounds that better tactics / coaching would have prevented, I haven't seen it. I've probably seen a few failures to box out, where we let someone come straight down the lane for a putback - but honestly, those are pretty rare, and every team has their slip-ups.

I do agree about the Clippers' personnel being a unique problem. If they get through a playoff series healthy and we start seeing them really exploit their depth and two-way versatility (And how deadly they are in transition), maybe we'll need to talk a bit more about them specifically. Other than Denver, I think they're perhaps the second-worst matchup for us.

It's interesting b/c their turnover rate has been trending positively for several seasons (they were 7th per nba.com in offensive turnover % last season, and 13th the year prior) and had a surprisingly low turnover percentage against Miami in the playoffs last year (12.3%, basically in line w/ this season's)...and yet if you asked me about their issues last year, without looking at the data I'd have turnovers close to the top.

I do think their lack of turnover forcing is an issue (mitigated by their ability to not concede free throws on defense) and one of the reasons Miami has been a problem for them in the playoffs. Butler is a very low turnover player and his usage goes way up in the playoffs; combine that with a Celtics defense that doesn't many turnovers and you have the very low 10.3% turnover rate from Miami in last years ECF. One thing about not forcing turnovers is it opens you up even more to the vicissitudes of shooting luck in playoff series. I'm not quallified enough to answer what they could do specifically in the playoffs to ramp up defensive turnover production, and I'm not saying they even need to- they have a great defense as currently consistuted. But against specific high quality opponents (DEN) reducing shot opportunities on defense would be a nice edge to couple with a low FT Rate.

 

[Euclis20]

Lets not forget that the celts are matchup nightmares for everyone, esp if the 3s are falling at season average. This tells me that key to #18 is to play well. Sort of a duh relevatuon except it highlights the importance of good mental and physical health.-- playing relatively great is not necessary, playing consistently well will do the job.

Iow: the biggest concern is getting wore down more than their eventful opponents. Does that mean husbanding your resources to lessen cumulative fatigue, or pushing hard to finish series quickly?

Given the last few years, I lean toward the latter . As gisnnis said after his championship season , they "did not play with their food"

The Celtics are now 1st in 3p% this year, at .390. They are 35-2 when shooting .390 or better from 3 so far this year.

Suffice to say if they shoot the 3 at their season average rate for the playoffs, they will absolutely cruise to a title.

 

[benhogan]

I would hope this would be the case. And to expand the pie to include the staff, especially the locker room types, many of whom surely make peanuts where a $10k bonus would be significant.

In a perfect world YES. In a world of Agents & lawyers, that's a firm NO.

what Shakespeare said

 

[lars10]

That would be a splendid idea - it allows for free range angsting while we can use other threads to discuss what is actually happening. Most of us are aware of what the risks are so proactive complaints about ISO dribbling or how Mazzulla will be outfoxed by X coach aren't necessarily additive but people need a place to worry so lets give them a home.

It’s be nice to put all the posts about last year’s playoffs and that team being somehow relevant to this year’s team.

 

[tims4wins]

It's interesting b/c their turnover rate has been trending positively for several seasons (they were 7th per nba.com in offensive turnover % last season, and 13th the year prior) and had a surprisingly low turnover percentage against Miami in the playoffs last year (12.3%, basically in line w/ this season's)...and yet if you asked me about their issues last year, without looking at the data I'd have turnovers close to the top.

I do think their lack of turnover forcing is an issue (mitigated by their ability to not concede free throws on defense) and one of the reasons Miami has been a problem for them in the playoffs. Butler is a very low turnover player and his usage goes way up in the playoffs; combine that with a Celtics defense that doesn't many turnovers and you have the very low 10.3% turnover rate from Miami in last years ECF. One thing about not forcing turnovers is it opens you up even more to the vicissitudes of shooting luck in playoff series. I'm not quallified enough to answer what they could do specifically in the playoffs to ramp up defensive turnover production, and I'm not saying they even need to- they have a great defense as currently consistuted. But against specific high quality opponents (DEN) reducing shot opportunities on defense would be a nice edge to couple with a low FT Rate.

I think it was the 7 game series in 2022 where turnovers were more of an issue. What was the % for that series?

 

[lovegtm]

The Celtics are now 1st in 3p% this year, at .390. They are 35-2 when shooting .390 or better from 3 so far this year.

Suffice to say if they shoot the 3 at their season average rate for the playoffs, they will absolutely cruise to a title.

39% for a team that takes 42.5 attempts a game is completely bonkers. It matches the eye test: they generate an absurd number of quality 3s relative to their opponents, and they have the guys to hit them.

For reference, the attempt numbers of the 6 teams right below them in %:

OKC: 34.2
MIN: 32.6
LAC: 33.0
PHX: 32.4
NOP: 32.3
LAL: 31.2

They are taking about 10 (!!) 3s more per game than teams that shoot a comparable percentage. The next closest volume teams are at 39.

73-win Warriors shot 41% on 3s, but on only 31.6 attempts/game. KD Warriors were around 39% on 29-31/game.

People joke about MazzullaBall, but NBA teams really really really dislike giving up quality 3s, and the Celtics are really really really good at generating them in spite of that dislike.

 

[tims4wins]

It happens every game, but watching last night from the mid-3rd through the 4th, it struck me how many easy shot opportunities they not only generate, but pass up on, nearly every possession. They have a great look like 9 possessions out of 10 (probably an exaggeration). It feels like the only time they don't get a great look is when someone takes a heat check. Like 3-4 times every possession it feels like they could take a good shot, except they move the ball more looking for an even better shot. I've never seen anything like it. And I think that's why we get so frustrated with the end of game offense, because (almost by definition) the process is different and they can't generate the same looks.

 

[Euclis20]

39% for a team that takes 42.5 attempts a game is completely bonkers. It matches the eye test: they generate an absurd number of quality 3s relative to their opponents, and they have the guys to hit them.

For reference, the attempt numbers of the 6 teams right below them in %:

OKC: 34.2
MIN: 32.6
LAC: 33.0
PHX: 32.4
NOP: 32.3
LAL: 31.2

They are taking about 10 (!!) 3s more per game than teams that shoot a comparable percentage. The next closest volume teams are at 39.

73-win Warriors shot 41% on 3s, but on only 31.6 attempts/game. KD Warriors were around 39% on 29-31/game.

People joke about MazzullaBall, but NBA teams really really really dislike giving up quality 3s, and the Celtics are really really really good at generating them in spite of that dislike.

Last year's Warriors team was just as good - .385 from 3 (2nd) on 43.2 attempts per game (1st).

It's funny how similar that team's shot profile was to this year's Celtics team. They were 1st/1st/2nd in 3PM/3PA/3P%, and 28th/28th/6th in 2PM/2PA/2P%, vs Boston this year at 1st/1st/1st and 29th/30th/3rd, but Boston has by far the best offense in the league while the Warriors were just 8th in offensive rating. What sets Boston's offense apart isn't just the 3's, it's that this team is 2nd in fewest turnovers and still gets to the line a bit (22nd in FTA). The 23 Warriors were dead last in both FTAs and offensive turnovers.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

The Celtics are now 1st in 3p% this year, at .390. They are 35-2 when shooting .390 or better from 3 so far this year.

Suffice to say if they shoot the 3 at their season average rate for the playoffs, they will absolutely cruise to a title.

Agreed---I had posted in a thread a couple weeks ago something like below as a simple heuristic:

1. If Celtics play their game offensively, e.g. drive/dish/ball rotation, they win (often by a lot) unless they have an aberrant game shooting 20% or so on threes
2. If Celtics do not play their game, but hit close to their season average on threes anyway, they win
3. If Celtics do not play their game offensively AND do not hit more than 25% of threes, it's about a 50/50 game who wins

 

[NoXInNixon]

In terms of counting stats, the 23-24 Celtics have the 15th best all time season point differential

With 15 games to go.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/largest-point-differential-in-an-nba-season

I think they'll end up 6th on that list, behind the 72 Bucks.

They just jumped into 6th all time, with six games to go.

They need +24 to catch the Bucks for 5th, and +63 to catch the '17 Warriors for 4th. Seems unlikely at this point that they'll be able to got to the magical +1000 point, as they will surely be resting guys over the next six games. But then they will be playing 3 teams who also have nothing to play for, so with a few more 30 point wins, it's not out of the question.

 

[benhogan]

We were relentlessly told that the Celtic's bench would be a major source of weakness.

#6-8, Horford + Hauser + PP, are 414/1001 on 3s for 41.4% that has to be some sort of record.

I expect we'll see plenty of PP/Hauser to close the season and wouldn't be shocked if they ended up with 65 wins.

Doesn't 63 wins trigger some sort of @Sam Ray Not event?

 

[tims4wins]

We were relentlessly told that the Celtic's bench would be a major source of weakness.

#6-8, Horford + Hauser + PP, are 414/1001 on 3s for 41.4% that has to be some sort of record.

I expect we'll see plenty of PP/Hauser to close the season and wouldn't be shocked if they ended up with 65 wins.

Doesn't 63 wins trigger some sort of @Sam Ray Not event?

64

 

[SteveF]

As to rebounding, @SteveF had some good stats on how we rank in the advanced rebounding metrics he's looking at, perhaps he can refresh that.

I broadened my approach and began focusing on shooting possessions vs. shotmaking. It's more of a toy than anything else, but it gives you a qualitative understanding of how a team generates point differential. It automatically updates (usually -- sometimes it times out when grabbing the data from basketball reference) and is located here.

I had another project I was working on that adjusted rebound rate based on shot location. As an example, if you are a team that takes a lot of 3s and 3s aren't offensively rebounded at a high rate on average and you are an average offensive rebounding team, then you are actually probably slightly better than an average offensive rebounding team. The actual differences turned out to be very minor and comparing data that involves shot location in that way has a court factors issue, so I sort of abandoned that. I don't think I ever bothered posting about that here.

 

[benhogan]

Can we make a thread similar to "A Time to Worry" from last year, about concerns re the C's upcoming playoff run?

Didn't we have a thread like that earlier this season, a so-called "safe space for pearl-clutching"?

We had a few posts about end-of-game issues, Coaching TOs, bench fretting & how the C's survive without their heart-n-soul. But it eventually devolved into a funnel for sanctimonious lecturing. Poor Ole Eddie picked up his pen and left.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Agreed---I had posted in a thread a couple weeks ago something like below as a simple heuristic:

1. If Celtics play their game offensively, e.g. drive/dish/ball rotation, they win (often by a lot) unless they have an aberrant game shooting 20% or so on threes
2. If Celtics do not play their game, but hit close to their season average on threes anyway, they win
3. If Celtics do not play their game offensively AND do not hit more than 25% of threes, it's about a 50/50 game who wins

I’d love to see the Celtics seemlessly run through the playoffs but historically the game slows down, is more of a grind fast with less rhythm and movement. This team has a bunch of veterans who can adjust to this but there will likely be some ugly shooting nights in games with fewer possessions. I only hope these aren’t occuring in any Game 6 or 7’s.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Jaylen's only averaging 2.3 turnovers a game, so this is more a perception vs reality thing. He probably actually averages 1 dribble turnover or so a game.

He dribbles it off his foot and recovers it more often than you'd like, so that probably creates the feeling that it happens a lot more than it does.

Well, that, and 2023 Game 7 PTSD....

To put numbers to this.

In 67 games this season, Jaylen has turned the ball over 61 times on bad passes, 58 times he's lost the ball, and 23 offensive fouls. There's another dozen or so turnovers in his total that aren't represented there, but not sure what they are.

Since the ASB, in 17 games, he's averaging 1.9 TO's per game. Those numbers have actually gone up recently, while he seems to be fighting an injury on his left hand.

This is absolutely a perception vs. reality thing. He could very well turn into Edward Scissorhands in the playoffs, but he certainly hasn't been that this season.

On the season, these are the TO%'s for the C's top 8:

Tatum: 10.2
Brown: 10.5
White: 11.0
Holiday: 14.8
Al: 10.0
KP: 9.1
PP: 8.6
Hauser: 6.0

I think what makes this Celtics team so prone to fewer turnovers is that our bench guys never try to do too much (maybe PP on occasion) and almost never turn it over as a result. It's not like the starters are sitting down and Hauser is coming in and dribbling off his feet, or Al doesn't know where to go with the ball, etc. They're just solid pieces that fit in right and they make the right plays.

 

[Euclis20]

To put numbers to this.

In 67 games this season, Jaylen has turned the ball over 61 times on bad passes, 58 times he's lost the ball, and 23 offensive fouls. There's another dozen or so turnovers in his total that aren't represented there, but not sure what they are.

Since the ASB, in 17 games, he's averaging 1.9 TO's per game. Those numbers have actually gone up recently, while he seems to be fighting an injury on his left hand.

This is absolutely a perception vs. reality thing. He could very well turn into Edward Scissorhands in the playoffs, but he certainly hasn't been that this season.

On the season, these are the TO%'s for the C's top 8:

Tatum: 10.2
Brown: 10.5
White: 11.0
Holiday: 14.8
Al: 10.0
KP: 9.1
PP: 8.6
Hauser: 6.0

I think what makes this Celtics team so prone to fewer turnovers is that our bench guys never try to do too much (maybe PP on occasion) and almost never turn it over as a result. It's not like the starters are sitting down and Hauser is coming in and dribbling off his feet, or Al doesn't know where to go with the ball, etc. They're just solid pieces that fit in right and they make the right plays.

The Celtics have been really excellent at avoiding TOs this year. 2nd in lowest TO% and you're right that our bench guys are really great about never doing too much. I'll include Pritchard in that - he's a point guard so he's going to occasionally turn the ball over (more so than Horford or Hauser), but he's 7th in the entire league in assist/turnover ratio. He takes incredibly good care of the ball for a point guard.

 

[RorschachsMask]

Jaylen has taken excellent care of the ball almost all year. He may throw a higher risk pass here and there, but he has mastered making the simple pass. It sounds easy, but it’s an adjustment a lot of scorers struggle with.

If he starts turning it over more in the playoffs, they’d just run the offense through White/Holiday/KP more. It’s not even something I think about as a potential issue.

 

[lovegtm]

Jaylen has taken excellent care of the ball almost all year. He may throw a higher risk pass here and there, but he has mastered making the simple pass. It sounds easy, but it’s an adjustment a lot of scorers struggle with.

If he starts turning it over more in the playoffs, they’d just run the offense through White/Holiday/KP more. It’s not even something I think about as a potential issue.

He has gotten better at setting up the simple passes in advance. The one against OKC where he went late in the clock in iso against Chet, beat him, and knew exactly where he was going when the help came was really nice. It was a 3-pointer for Hauser iirc.

All of that is only doable if you're actually an elite scorer who can beat guys and know you'll draw help. The passes are simple because the advantages created are big.

 

[DGreenwood]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TQBGTp-hxE

 

[RorschachsMask]

This is wild to actually see

 

[slamminsammya]

steph curry is so fun

 

[Saints Rest]

This is wild to actually see

View attachment 80570

The Celtics’ away winning pct is higher than the second place team’s overall winning percentage.

 

[snowmanny]

Celtics just screwing around at this point with nothing to play for...and they still have the longest active winning streak in the NBA

 

[tims4wins]

Celtics just screwing around at this point with nothing to play for...and they still have the longest active winning streak in the NBA

Seriously. I'm not sure that the national media / fans, or even a good deal of the local media / fans, understand / appreciate what's going on here. They had a good first half of the season. They were 32-10 after that Denver loss. Since then they've gone 29-6 (68 win pace). 24-4 in their last 28 (70 win pace). They're tearing through the league in a way we haven't seen since the Warriors. But because they haven't yet won a title, it's almost like it is getting dismissed.

Oh and I mentioned this upthread, but they flew back from Charlotte after the April 1 game. They only get on a plane once more until April 22 or so at the earliest. Super favorable.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Miami being better on the road than at home is wild. That’s a big part of the case for them being dangerous … to teams that are not the Celtics.

Nothing’s guaranteed, but sure seems hard to see 4 losses in 7 games against anyone in the east.

 

[benhogan]

Seriously. I'm not sure that the national media / fans, or even a good deal of the local media / fans, understand / appreciate what's going on here. They had a good first half of the season. They were 32-10 after that Denver loss. Since then they've gone 29-6 (68 win pace). 24-4 in their last 28 (70 win pace). They're tearing through the league in a way we haven't seen since the Warriors. But because they haven't yet won a title, it's almost like it is getting dismissed.

Oh and I mentioned this upthread, but they flew back from Charlotte after the April 1 game. They only get on a plane once more until April 22 or so at the earliest. Super favorable.

Yea, only Celtic super fans around here, are aware/discussing the 3rd greatest Net Rtg figure.

If the Celtics storm through the playoffs, there will be plenty of debate about them being one of the 5 greatest NBA teams ever.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/best-net-rating-in-nba-history-by-season

 

[InstaFace]

Announcers and commentators don't want to look foolish. If they crown Boston publicly already, and then the Cs don't win the title, they'll feel like idiots. Nobody wants to risk that. Nobody's paid to be bold, or to be first.

On the other hand, if we're up 2-0 in the Finals and on a tear in Game 3, or thereabouts, I think we'll start hearing all the hagiography about greatest-ever-teams and such start coming out of the woodwork. They'll have it all prepped. The little cutaway TV packages and quotes and stats and stuff. The articles will be drafted and sitting there ready, the tweeters will turn their takes on a dime. They just all won't fire that shot until it's safe to do so.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

. Since then they've gone 29-6 (68 win pace). 24-4 in their last 28 (70 win pace).

And except for us diehards, how many people know the Cs are doing this while giving all of their guys lots of rest.

 

[tims4wins]

And except for us diehards, how many people know the Cs are doing this while giving all of their guys lots of rest.

Exactly. In those last 28 games (or 35), how many have all of the top 6 played in? Like 40%? Less?

And take last night - not only did they rest JB and White, they didn't even play the other top 4 in the 4th!

 

[NomarsFool]

It was also kind of wild to see them continue to run the JV squad out there when the game got super close.

 

[lovegtm]

One fascinating thing about the Celtics is how good the offense is despite their two key offensive players being meh in TS%. Tatum is .605, Brown is .584. Those are pretty pedestrian by star standards, and yet the team offense is the best regular season one ever, by far, not even close.

 

[Euclis20]

One fascinating thing about the Celtics is how good the offense is despite their two key offensive players being meh in TS%. Tatum is .605, Brown is .584. Those are pretty pedestrian by star standards, and yet the team offense is the best regular season one ever, by far, not even close.

It is unusual, but it's fun to note that the 2nd best offensive in the league (and ever) is Indy, led by Haliburton (.603) and Siakam (.599).

 

[lovegtm]

It is unusual, but it's fun to note that the 2nd best offensive in the league (and ever) is Indy, led by Haliburton (.603) and Siakam (.599).

Yeah, I think it's good to see the limits of raw efficiency as an analytical tool.

(The facile explanation for Indy is that Halliburton piles up assists, which makes TS less relevant, but obviously that doesn't hold for Tatum+Brown.)

 

[lexrageorge]

One fascinating thing about the Celtics is how good the offense is despite their two key offensive players being meh in TS%. Tatum is .605, Brown is .584. Those are pretty pedestrian by star standards, and yet the team offense is the best regular season one ever, by far, not even close.

Highlights the problem with using a single metric. Tatum's efficiency is held back by his pedestrian 6.8 free throw attempts per game. But not sure we want him driving and getting hacked every single play either; he doesn't need to do that with this roster.

 

[Homar]

Am I the only one who is grieving the end of this remarkable season? Make no mistake, I'm excited for the playoffs, too, and nothing will please me more than hanging #18. But this has been a joy ride, from start to finish, and the slow, largely unpressured march of the regluar season, from October til now has been a thrice weekly joy. I've loved drama of watching the team and POBOBS' vision come together. I've enjoyed warming to KP and JH, and the grieving for Smart, and the rest of the crew that were a Tatum sprained ankle from another trip to the finals. I've loved the feeling, growing gradually, that we were watching something wondrous, even historically so, unfold before our eyes. And there have been dozens of nights, like this one, where I've been entertained wondering which of the starters would play against this particular NBA also ran. It's been fun. And I will miss it.

I'll also be revved for the playoffs, and the unique excitement which comes from needing to win four before the bad guys win three, and the in series drama of punch and counter-punch.

Both are true for me at once. And I wanted to lift up the joys of the former before getting lost in the joys of the latter.

 

[InstaFace]

I might feel that, as the minutes tick down on the season, win or lose. But not now. We got a lot of unfinished business, no matter how much fun it's been.

But we can certainly argue about our favorite regular season game! The one where Embiid's full court heave that went in, would have tied it, and was disallowed for launching past the buzzer, might be top 5.

 

[Euclis20]

I might feel that, as the minutes tick down on the season, win or lose. But not now. We got a lot of unfinished business, no matter how much fun it's been.

But we can certainly argue about our favorite regular season game! The one where Embiid's full court heave that went in, would have tied it, and was disallowed for launching past the buzzer, might be top 5.

That was a fun game, but if we're including last year, that would really open things up.

My favorite game this year is probably the OT win against Minnesota. That sequence in the final minute (Tatum contest layup, Holiday steal from Edwards, Tatum 3) was sublime.

 

[RorschachsMask]

For me, 60% is the cutoff for very good TS. Average is around 58%, players like Jokic, KD, prime Steph have really warped the idea of elite efficiency. Some guys like SGA and a few others started out the year insane with efficiency, but since the refs have swallowed the whistle, it’s normalized some.

Jaylen isn’t going to ever be a super high TS guy, he doesn’t get to the line enough, and doesn’t make enough of the ones he takes. His eFG is really good for a wing though, and because his game is physical, he wasn’t really impacted by the refs changing how they call things.

I’ve always felt efficiency can get somewhat overrated though, process more important, within reason lol. I look at it like this, Tatum using his gravity and getting others good looks all game matters a lot more than him making or missing an extra shot per game. And as @lovegtm has pointed out, he creates a ridiculous amount of open looks, whether he’s on ball or off.

 

[DGreenwood]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOQwcH3G4xA

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Am I the only one who is grieving the end of this remarkable season? Make no mistake, I'm excited for the playoffs, too, and nothing will please me more than hanging #18. But this has been a joy ride, from start to finish, and the slow, largely unpressured march of the regluar season, from October til now has been a thrice weekly joy. I've loved drama of watching the team and POBOBS' vision come together. I've enjoyed warming to KP and JH, and the grieving for Smart, and the rest of the crew that were a Tatum sprained ankle from another trip to the finals. I've loved the feeling, growing gradually, that we were watching something wondrous, even historically so, unfold before our eyes. And there have been dozens of nights, like this one, where I've been entertained wondering which of the starters would play against this particular NBA also ran. It's been fun. And I will miss it.

I'll also be revved for the playoffs, and the unique excitement which comes from needing to win four before the bad guys win three, and the in series drama of punch and counter-punch.

Both are true for me at once. And I wanted to lift up the joys of the former before getting lost in the joys of the latter.

Nope. This regular season has been an absolute joy and I want every drop of it I can get. We get too caught up in trying to be extra with our analysis around these parts sometimes that it feels like we miss out on the cool stuff that is happening right in front of our eyes.

This team has been so fun on and off the court because the regular season allows for losses, even bad ones without it being a defcon five event - and given how few they have had of any sort of losses, most of the schedule has been a blast. Once the playoffs begin the stakes are way different, especially for this team.

Fantastic post btw.

 

[slamminsammya]

i was thinking about just this thing today. so much is put on the playoffs as if it’s all that matters. watching this team operate at the peak of their sport every other night has been such a joy. i remember watching every game in the ricky davis days. this team is so fun and likeable and i appreciate them bringing a lot of joy. obviously i want them to win it all but it’s not everything

 

[Moonlight Graham]

i was thinking about just this thing today. so much is put on the playoffs as if it’s all that matters. watching this team operate at the peak of their sport every other night has been such a joy. i remember watching every game in the ricky davis days. this team is so fun and likeable and i appreciate them bringing a lot of joy. obviously i want them to win it all but it’s not everything

I agree. The playoffs lead to the glory, but tearing through the regular season like this is really something g to appreciate. Some of those NBA championship teams would never have been able to maintain this level of dominance over the regular season