Well, he's currently a FA, so the Pats would have to re-sign him first.I still think that Jon Jones has FS replacement written all over him.
5. CB JAMEL DEAN
2023 team prediction: New England Patriots
New England let J.C. Jackson walk in free agency last offseason, and in this scenario they sign a younger player who can help them play more press-man coverage on the outside, something they deviated from in 2022 compared to prior seasons.
The Patriots ranked 18th in press coverage grade for their outside cornerbacks last season with a 63.0 mark, whereas Dean's 79.7 grade ranked third among cornerbacks with at least 100 press coverage snaps.
8. T ORLANDO BROWN JR.
2023 team prediction: New England Patriots
The Patriots are expected to let 2018 first-round pick tackle Isaiah Wynn walk in free agency after a tumultuous 2022 campaign, and Trent Brown is not a long-term solution at either tackle spot but can hypothetically slide back over to the right side.
It’s possible the Chiefs place a second consecutive franchise tag on Brown and/or work out a multi-year deal, but Patrick Mahomes’ elite ability to not let pressures become sacks makes it unnecessary to make a top-of-market investment on the blindside.
Brown didn’t really do much to change his perception this year; he is a good but not great tackle. New England has been aggressive in free agency in recent years and is desperate for help at the position, though. Brown earned a 60.0-plus pass-blocking grade in every 2022 contest from Week 5 on, with 11 grades above 70.0 over the stretch. He’d be a massive addition to this Patriots tackle group.
Love these signings, would be ecstatic if the Pats could head into the draft with CB and LT taken care of.PFF also revealed landing spot predictions for their top 50 FAs. They have New England signing #5 overall Jamel Dean at corner AND #8 overall Orlando Brown at LT. (They have Jakobi Meyers going to Houston and Jon Jones heading to Baltimore.)
I don't know about signing both but they have the cap space and avenues to create even more. If you're going to spend it, filling two of your top three needs before the draft with the best FAs at their positions, who are each 26 years old, is not a bad way to go about it.
Use the draft to take multiple shots at skill position players, a McCourty replacement, or go BPA. Would also them to cut Trent Brown and draft a RT with a Day 2 pick.
I see DMac listed at 5’-11”, 195 and JJ at 5’-10”, 190. Seems pretty similar to meI think the problem with Jon Jones as a FS is he's small for a guy who is the last line of defense.
Sorry. I thought someone had thrown the Jack suggestion out there earlier this off season. Too many Joneses.No, I did mean Jonathan Jones. I think he is an outstanding open field tackler, with great speed to play CF in the Cover-1 the Pats like to play.
Combined with the number of outside CB prospects in the draft, I am leaning this way as well. There's guys you can get as far back as late Day 2 that are first-round talents.I think you just have to let Jonathan Jones go if anyone offers him significant money. The fact that he was able to slide seamlessly from the slot into playing at a high level outside the very season JC Jackson got big bucks to be a complete flop for the Chargers just gives me more confidence this coaching staff can make pretty much anyone with reasonable cover skills effective in that spot. It's the one position I've learned the lesson not to doubt anything Bill wants to do with.
I dunno, I'm old enough to remember how much of a disaster the 2010-2013 secondaries were. They've done pretty well with finding guys, but I think they test the limits of this at their peril (much like the OL last year). They also faced a really easy slate of quarterbacks last year; while the passing D was overall excellent statistically, I'm not sure they would fare as well in a more representative sample.I think you just have to let Jonathan Jones go if anyone offers him significant money. The fact that he was able to slide seamlessly from the slot into playing at a high level outside the very season JC Jackson got big bucks to be a complete flop for the Chargers just gives me more confidence this coaching staff can make pretty much anyone with reasonable cover skills effective in that spot. It's the one position I've learned the lesson not to doubt anything Bill wants to do with.
My feels about CB are literally the inverse of WR. I trust BB to always find/develop CB talent. The track record is just so good. On the flip side, I have very little confidence in this organization‘s ability to find/develop impact WRs.I think you just have to let Jonathan Jones go if anyone offers him significant money. The fact that he was able to slide seamlessly from the slot into playing at a high level outside the very season JC Jackson got big bucks to be a complete flop for the Chargers just gives me more confidence this coaching staff can make pretty much anyone with reasonable cover skills effective in that spot. It's the one position I've learned the lesson not to doubt anything Bill wants to do with.
Sure, but I think a whole lot of that was due to scheme as well. I don't think a Jonathan Jones level corner on the outside would have played as well as he did in 2022 back then, they were just super soft and zone heavy. Since Patricia left they have been good in the secondary pretty much regardless of who's out there. Not saying you can just fill Jones' spot with a 6th round pick and call it a day, just that if he gets some real money and Bill doesn't think it's worth it, I trust whatever plan he comes up with at that position.I dunno, I'm old enough to remember how much of a disaster the 2010-2013 secondaries were. They've done pretty well with finding guys, but I think they test the limits of this at their peril (much like the OL last year). They also faced a really easy slate of quarterbacks last year; while the passing D was overall excellent statistically, I'm not sure they would fare as well in a more representative sample.
There's a chicken-egg problem with the scheme - tough to play man-to-man when you're rolling Antwuan Molden and Darius Butler out there. Since then they've mostly had good secondaries, and the defense has been good (under Patricia, Flores, and Belichick / Mayo alike). I expect there will be some continued investment at CB - especially looking to a future where they don't have McCourty as the safety net over the top.Sure, but I think a whole lot of that was due to scheme as well. I don't think a Jonathan Jones level corner on the outside would have played as well as he did in 2022 back then, they were just super soft and zone heavy. Since Patricia left they have been good in the secondary pretty much regardless of who's out there. Not saying you can just fill Jones' spot with a 6th round pick and call it a day, just that if he gets some real money and Bill doesn't think it's worth it, I trust whatever plan he comes up with at that position.
Defense was never good under Patricia and this is a hill I'll die on. It was okay at best even with good personnel. He sucked as DC, absolutely sucked.There's a chicken-egg problem with the scheme - tough to play man-to-man when you're rolling Antwuan Molden and Darius Butler out there. Since then they've mostly had good secondaries, and the defense has been good (under Patricia, Flores, and Belichick / Mayo alike). I expect there will be some continued investment at CB - especially looking to a future where they don't have McCourty as the safety net over the top.
Disagree, but even if we confine the sample period to post-Patricia, they had really good CBs on paper up until this past year, when they faced an unsustainably bad group of shit QBs and backups. I'm not convinced they can just roll anybody out there at CB and play effectively.Defense was never good under Patricia and this is a hill I'll die on. It was okay at best even with good personnel. He sucked as DC, absolutely sucked.
Matt Patricia benefitted from all time great offense and excellent special teams more than most DCs, which obviously impacts points allowed. He also was play caller as soon as 2010.Patricia served as DC from 2012-2017. Here's where they ranked those years defensively:
2012: #9 points, #25 yards
2013: #10 points, #26 yards
2014: #8 points, #13 yards
2015: #10 points, #9 yards
2016: #1 points, #8 yards
2017: #5 points, #29 yards
AVG: #7.2 points, #18.3 yards
Every year he was DC, they finished top 10 in points allowed (top 5 twice), but they ranked much worse in yards allowed. In the playoffs, here's what they allowed under MP:
2012: 28 points to Hou, 28 points to Bal
2013: 22 points to Ind, 26 points to Den
2014: 31 points to Bal, 7 points to Ind, 24 points to Sea
2015: 20 points to KC, 20 points to Den
2016: 16 points to Hou, 17 points to Pit, 28 points to Atl
2017: 14 points to Ten, 20 points to Jax, 41 points to Phi
So in 15 playoff games (10-5 record), they averaged 22.8 points allowed. Given that they were always going up against playoff teams, 22.8 points is actually pretty decent.
And based on his time in Detroit, he seems to lack basic people skills that further impedes his ability to be effective in a top coaching role. The Ernie Adams type role, whatever that is, seems like a better fit and I’d be fine with it.My gut feeling, based on nothing more than dime-store psychology and TV viewing, is that Patricia is "academically-brilliant" about football, but has a hard time putting it into practice in the live action of the game. He gets stuck in the land of analysis and can't pull the trigger fast enough to make that knowledge practical on the field. Book-smart vs street-smart, if you will. Paralysis by analysis.
I think of his academic brilliance translating to football in a way similar to the Jonah Hill character in "Moneyball" -- someone who can analyze the data and video analytics in entirely new ways.Here is the thing about Patricia that always bothered me. You can’t mention his name without the attachment that he is brilliant/a rocket scientist. That’s great….if he is building rockets or doing anything in the NASA field. The fact that he is a brilliant rocket scientist doesn’t mean he is any more capable to be a defensive coordinator than my dry cleaner is.
Everybody assumes that because he is a brilliant mathematical and with equations that his brilliance in that field should translate to brilliance as a coach/defensive coordinator.
I see two different skill sets altogether.
Warren Buffet is one of the worlds greatest investors…he is phenomenal in that field, but do I want him replacing the engine in my car?
He was a defensive coordinator or defensive play caller for almost a decade for very good teams. Former players swear by him--he had a very close relationship with Brandon Spikes for example. He was an absolute disaster as a head coach and as an offensive coordinator but I think it's simply silly to think of him as someone who is anything other than a high level coach.And based on his time in Detroit, he seems to lack basic people skills that further impedes his ability to be effective in a top coaching role. The Ernie Adams type role, whatever that is, seems like a better fit and I’d be fine with it.
Do you have any statistics to back this statement up given that we have contrary statistics just a few posts up? Those "very good teams" were largely the product of TB12 and BB, IMO. He completely failed as a head coach. He was somehow even worse on offense. He was mediocre, at best, as a defensive play caller by DVOA. So, where is the "high level coach" coming from in your estimation? I'd like to see your argument.He was a defensive coordinator or defensive play caller for almost a decade for very good teams. Former players swear by him--he had a very close relationship with Brandon Spikes for example. He was an absolute disaster as a head coach and as an offensive coordinator but I think it's simply silly to think of him as someone who is anything other than a high level coach.
Well calling defenses for close to a decade that were almost always top ten in points (including ever year he was a DC) and being a DC on super bowl winning teams. That's what I'd call a high level coach as opposed to someone who is a "Jonah Hill" or an Ernie Adams type, or a nerd who can't relate to people or follow the action on a football field. He can't be a HC or OC but he absolutely can be a DC at at an NFL level, which is what i mean by a high level coach. (Is he a top five or ten DC? Tougher question).Do you have any statistics to back this statement up given that we have contrary statistics just a few posts up? Those "very good teams" were largely the product of TB12 and BB, IMO. He completely failed as a head coach. He was somehow even worse on offense. He was mediocre, at best, as a defensive play caller by DVOA. So, where is the "high level coach" coming from in your estimation? I'd like to see your argument.
Appreciate the thoughtful response. It's possible he was trying to be someone he wasn't in Detroit and people weren't having it. Plenty of people have failed in sports/business trying to live up to a tough guy image. One of my closest friends really struggled with this in his career but has since figured it out a bit. I'll always be a little bitter about the Eagles SB defensive performance so my takes aren't completely unbiased but I just felt that the contrast between Patricia with Flores was pretty stark. If your argument is that Patricia is an NFL-caliber DC, I won't fight you on that. He's proven that he is and he has the rings to show it. I guess we'll see what the market thinks of Patricia at this point. There's no reason why he wouldn't get another crack at DC somewhere, if that is what he wants instead of some mercurial Adams type role.Well calling defenses for close to a decade that were almost always top ten in points (including ever year he was a DC) and being a DC on super bowl winning teams. That's what I'd call a high level coach as opposed to someone who is a "Jonah Hill" or an Ernie Adams type, or a nerd who can't relate to people or follow the action on a football field. He can't be a HC or OC but he absolutely can be a DC at at an NFL level, which is what i mean by a high level coach. (Is he a top five or ten DC? Tougher question).
The Brandon Spikes example is just one about how he connects with some players--Detroit went south clearly---and that he doesn't lack "basic people skills". He seemed to do just fine people skills wise as a Pats coach, and then clearly fell on his fucking face trying to be a tough guy head coach--but not being a great leader of an organization is different from basic people skills.
I don't find defensive DVOA persuasive at all. I've been looking at DVOA for close to two decades now and for two decades DVOA has said that the Pats defense isn't particularly good and the Pats (and other offshots of BB defenses) keep scoring down pretty well. Which kind of makes sense--DVOA penalizes teams for giving up consistent yardage between the 20s and doesn't seem to penalize big defensive busts that much, and for twenty years the Pats have pretty consistently been (especially with the lead) giving up small consistent yardage on time consuming drives between the 20s and tightening up in the red zone.
I have. I posted it about it in draft fits too but I’ll summarize here.Curious if @SMU_Sox or anyone else has taken a close look at the TE draft class yet? Heard one analyst say this is the deepest TE group in 10yrs with first round grades on Kincaid, Mayer, Musgrave and 2nd rd grades on Laporta and Washington. Not sure teams will actually select TEs that highly so if one falls to NE in the third could be a good opportunity to upgrade the position.
I'm not sure Flores was better but his defenses did seem to be a little more aggressive and that's more fun to watch as a fan. And Flores is also very good.Appreciate the thoughtful response. It's possible he was trying to be someone he wasn't in Detroit and people weren't having it. Plenty of people have failed in sports/business trying to live up to a tough guy image. One of my closest friends really struggled with this in his career but has since figured it out a bit. I'll always be a little bitter about the Eagles SB defensive performance so my takes aren't completely unbiased but I just felt that the contrast between Patricia with Flores was pretty stark. If your argument is that Patricia is an NFL-caliber DC, I won't fight you on that. He's proven that he is and he has the rings to show it. I guess we'll see what the market thinks of Patricia at this point. There's no reason why he wouldn't get another crack at DC somewhere, if that is what he wants instead of some mercurial Adams type role.
On the flip side, I'll always get a kick out of Patricia wearing the Goodell clown face shirt coming off of the plane so I give him credit for that.
Patricia sort of reminds me of what happened with Juan Castillo awhile back. Castillo was Andy Reid’s offensive line coach in Philly for about a dozen years before Reid inexplicably moved him to DC. Castillo lasted about a season and a half before getting fired and never coached defense again.He was a defensive coordinator or defensive play caller for almost a decade for very good teams. Former players swear by him--he had a very close relationship with Brandon Spikes for example. He was an absolute disaster as a head coach and as an offensive coordinator but I think it's simply silly to think of him as someone who is anything other than a high level coach.
EDIT: This isn't to say he's the coach I'd hire, or that he should have a role with the Pats. And he absolutely rubbed a lot of players in detroit the wrong way. Frankly I think his presentation (rather slovenly, could hit the old peloton a little more) has something to do with it but on papers he's not that different from a Mike Nolan or Steve Spagnalo or Vic Fangio--although Fangio certianly has a longer/better DC resume.
Thanks, great stuff as always.I have. I posted it about it in draft fits too but I’ll summarize here.
Darnell Washington is the best blocking tight end I’ve ever seen and is a monster and a freak athletically. He is a six OL and can handle blocking defensive tackles. He’s that good. He also has some nice RAC ability and good hands and a big catch radius. His issue is he has a ton to work on as a route runner and might never be that good at conventional routes. He is definitely a fit. He’s basically the best possible version of Jonnu Smith but 3-4 inches taller and 20-30 pounds heavier. And unlike Jonnu he is a phenomenal blocker. That prototype though.
Michael Mayer is your overall best balance TE. He should be a good blocker when he cleans up his technique. He has the size you want. Very good route runner. Decent hands. His issue is we don’t know how athletic he is and his RAC stinks. He’s a better blocking version of Hunter Henry. Maybe he gives you more receptions too but he isn’t necessarily a game changer. He’s more like a solid double, maybe a triple, but not a home run. Let’s see what he tests. I suspect he will have above average but will land short of a mid to high 8 RAS. He’s a fit.
Luke Musgrave has issues blocking. That was always his weakest trait. Good vertical route runner. Doesn’t have the best COD and is a little high cut. Good hands and ball tracking. Blazing fast. He’s a better blocking and more vertical version of Mike Gesicki. His RAC is also mediocre. Some folks point to his blocking at the senior bowl or on tape as being acceptable but I’m skeptical. He loses a lot of reps and he’s thin for his height.
Dalton Kincaid is the best receiving tight end I have seen come out and he reminds me of Travis Kelce. He might be my top guy this year. He’s not a good in-line blocker but he is a good mobile blocker and it is more because of his lack of ideal size and not a lack of effort. He can block ILBs, safeties, and corners very well though and is aggressive too. His receiving ability, catch ability, route running, ball tracking, and RAC are all exceptional. I love Kincaid.
Sam Laporta is an even worse blocker than Kincaid and could stand to be a better and less robotic route runner. He’s also not great with contested catches. He shines with his athleticism and RAC. It is outstanding RAC. He also has flashed some excellent route running so I think he has it in him.
I don’t get Tucker Kraft at all. Some see him as a borderline top 50 guy. He won’t make my top 100 or maybe even top 150.
Luke Schoonmaker is an excellent blocker and while he is a tick slow as a receiver and could polish up his routes he does have good hands and will mismatch with ILBs. He is a late day 2 to early day 3 guy.
Cam Latu has route running work and needs to add some weight as a blocker but has excellent athleticism and by the end of the year started putting it together more as both a blocker and a route runner.
Probably has a whole lot to do with their defense ranking 1st in average opponent starting field position during the Brady era. Since 2019 their disparity between DVOA and points allowed rankings has gone down (they even ranked higher by DVOA last year). The only season in which there was a gap was 2020.Well calling defenses for close to a decade that were almost always top ten in points (including ever year he was a DC) and being a DC on super bowl winning teams. That's what I'd call a high level coach as opposed to someone who is a "Jonah Hill" or an Ernie Adams type, or a nerd who can't relate to people or follow the action on a football field. He can't be a HC or OC but he absolutely can be a DC at at an NFL level, which is what i mean by a high level coach. (Is he a top five or ten DC? Tougher question).
The Brandon Spikes example is just one about how he connects with some players--Detroit went south clearly---and that he doesn't lack "basic people skills". He seemed to do just fine people skills wise as a Pats coach, and then clearly fell on his fucking face trying to be a tough guy head coach--but not being a great leader of an organization is different from basic people skills.
I don't find defensive DVOA persuasive at all. I've been looking at DVOA for close to two decades now and for two decades DVOA has said that the Pats defense isn't particularly good and the Pats (and other offshots of BB defenses) keep scoring down pretty well. Which kind of makes sense--DVOA penalizes teams for giving up consistent yardage between the 20s and doesn't seem to penalize big defensive busts that much, and for twenty years the Pats have pretty consistently been (especially with the lead) giving up small consistent yardage on time consuming drives between the 20s and tightening up in the red zone.