2023 San Francisco 49ers.
- Thread starter trekfan55
- Start date
Ok, yes.
But there's the whole, "Tom Brady is one of the best players in any sport in the history of sport." Brock played 6 games.
Huh? Brady is the GOAT. Even though Purdy was picked lower, he'd have to have a hell of a career to equal the surprise of a 6th round pick becoming the QB GOAT.
Great that the 49ers got a starting QB from the last pick though. That's still special.
Wow, didn’t see that coming. That’ll REALLY piss off Niners fans, if he shows any sort of value for Dallas.
Better than cutting him I guess. I think SF would have been on the hook for the 5.3 mill next season if they cut him.
I suppose. But Shanahan and Lynch are fired by now if not for Mr Irrelevant, right? And it remains to be seen if he is a one-year wonder, the term "system QB" comes to mind with all the talent SF has there.
I understand Jimmy G wasn't the answer but that was just too much draft capital for a high-risk prospect the day the trade went down.
I mean, I guess they’d be fired if they weren’t successful, but they largely have been to date. Jimmy was hurt all the time and the young guy got hurt too, shit happens and they made due with the seventh round guy. That seems like most NFL coaching situations - people get hurt and you survive or you don’t.
Despite this blunder, Kittle and Warner are both fifth and third round picks and at or near the top of their positions. Win some you lose some.
To a degree, the offense works best with a “system QB.” Shanny wants a guy that’s going to execute the offense, be safe with the ball, and generally play within the structure he creates.
Trey Lance was a shot at taking trying to recreate some RG3 magic that they had in Washington. It was a big gamble, and Jimmy G, who they kicked to the scrap heap, and Brock Purdy saved John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan’s jobs because whiffing that badly on a pick that high profile rarely means also keeping your job.
Honestly surprised they were able to get a 4th round pick for him. Would have assumed his value was even lower than that.
Shanahan and Lynch fucked up bigtime with that pick, for sure, but their body of work is strong. I don't think there is any way they would have gotten fired.
Right after the draft, there was a lot of self-congratulatory pats on each other's backs about how they "intended to pick Trey all along" but had been so smart not to disabuse anyone of the incorrect thought that they were interested in Mac. Then in 2022, Shanahan backtracked and admitted that they were torn between Mac and Trey. Anyway, it doesn't matter now.
I am not overly upset with the failure to pay Bosa thus far only because it's preventing a stupid injury during training camp. But they do need to pay him before the season starts.
Agreed. They've won double-digit games 3 of the past 4 years and are well-situated to do that again. You don't fire guys who can build teams like that -- especially not when you look at some of the other terrible FOs out there.
Watch Darnold tear and acl or something tonight. That would be right in line with the niners’ QB luck.
This puts a lot on Purdy. He was outstanding last year, hopefully he continues it.
This puts a lot on Purdy. He was outstanding last year, hopefully he continues it.
The process by which Lynch and Shanahan evaluated Lance on a thin body of work, went all-in to trade up, saw enough in Year 1 that they handed him the keys for Year 2, then knew by roughly Aug 1 of the following summer that he simply wasn’t the guy is fascinating. I really hope we’ll get the inside story some day.
I guess the 49ers are lucky they found Purdy, but this decision — and the ultimate compensation in trade — confirms that a verdict of sorts has been rendered on Lance independently.
Of course, it’s a big f*ck-up to miss on a pick like that. But it happens. And you want decision-makers to understand the sunk cost fallacy. Lynch and Shanahan obviously know they have serious egg on their face, but that didn’t stop them for ripping the bandaid off quickly and moving forward. A lot of respect for that.
I guess the 49ers are lucky they found Purdy, but this decision — and the ultimate compensation in trade — confirms that a verdict of sorts has been rendered on Lance independently.
Of course, it’s a big f*ck-up to miss on a pick like that. But it happens. And you want decision-makers to understand the sunk cost fallacy. Lynch and Shanahan obviously know they have serious egg on their face, but that didn’t stop them for ripping the bandaid off quickly and moving forward. A lot of respect for that.
Agreed. It’s all about making moves that make your team better. Kudos to them for not losing sight of that.
I mean in that scenario (Purdy and Darnold getting hurt), the season is probably over. I don’t think Lance (at this point in his career) could take the 49ers where they want to go.
Bosa gets the big bag:
View: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1699509016798347304
Structure obviously matters and normally Paraag is pretty good at working the cap, but this team's window is like 2 years, bills come due.
I will say, a 7th rounders rookie contract is a big help over the next three years.
View: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1699509016798347304
Structure obviously matters and normally Paraag is pretty good at working the cap, but this team's window is like 2 years, bills come due.
I will say, a 7th rounders rookie contract is a big help over the next three years.
In other news, The Niners restructured two contracts to create 23MM in cap space for 2023
This move helps them have space for additional moves this year (such as a big trade like they did last year for CMC). It's important for this year because they need to go for it all. It also creates rollover space for next year, when like 7 players count for about 140-150MM in cap space and that's before Bosa's big contract and these restructures, which probably moved money to 2024 and beyond.
Oh and they have to pay Ayiuk, especialy if he has the breakout year many are expecting.
BTW Here's an article going into more detail of the Niner's 2024 cap situation
So back to the current season, no more holding our breath, Bosa is back and expected to play.
This move helps them have space for additional moves this year (such as a big trade like they did last year for CMC). It's important for this year because they need to go for it all. It also creates rollover space for next year, when like 7 players count for about 140-150MM in cap space and that's before Bosa's big contract and these restructures, which probably moved money to 2024 and beyond.
Oh and they have to pay Ayiuk, especialy if he has the breakout year many are expecting.
BTW Here's an article going into more detail of the Niner's 2024 cap situation
So back to the current season, no more holding our breath, Bosa is back and expected to play.
Yep and he seems to meet the "no beer belly" requirement that Shanahan had for him playing against the Steelers:
View: https://twitter.com/49ers/status/1699646694798102560
Random observations:
1. That was a complete thrashing of the Steelers, and many people were high on them (Niners were -1.5)
2. Brock Purdy, back from injury is still rewarding the trust placed on him. Accurate throws and scrambling abilities are there, plus he's got a hell of an offense (that second TD pass to Aiyuk was amazing)
3. The defense is going to kick some ass and take some names this years. Overall incredible job by everyone.
The Niners started off string and looking like a complete team this year, unlike last year.
1. That was a complete thrashing of the Steelers, and many people were high on them (Niners were -1.5)
2. Brock Purdy, back from injury is still rewarding the trust placed on him. Accurate throws and scrambling abilities are there, plus he's got a hell of an offense (that second TD pass to Aiyuk was amazing)
3. The defense is going to kick some ass and take some names this years. Overall incredible job by everyone.
The Niners started off string and looking like a complete team this year, unlike last year.
If the Steelers are a good team, that was a really impressive win.
My small issues are still putting away drives (All of Moody's field goals were pretty short, those are somewhat wasteful drives for a team with super bowl aspirations).
I think the niners are missing a Kwan or Jimmy Ward in the slot. Lenoir is ok, but he's a better outside corner and when he moves to the slot, Ambry isn't the best outside CB.
I'd also like to see what McKivitz looks like when not facing T.J. Watt, but that wasn't a great debut for a RT.
Overall just an impressive showing though for a team that normally is lackluster in week 1.
My small issues are still putting away drives (All of Moody's field goals were pretty short, those are somewhat wasteful drives for a team with super bowl aspirations).
I think the niners are missing a Kwan or Jimmy Ward in the slot. Lenoir is ok, but he's a better outside corner and when he moves to the slot, Ambry isn't the best outside CB.
I'd also like to see what McKivitz looks like when not facing T.J. Watt, but that wasn't a great debut for a RT.
Overall just an impressive showing though for a team that normally is lackluster in week 1.
McKivitz is not good. Neither was McGlinchey, especially in pass protection where he seemed to be tossed into the air routinely by pass rushers. The niners seem to place comparatively little value on the right side of the offensive line.
Their OL is one issue that needs to be addressed somehow.
They opened up 41MM in cap space for this season through restructures. Maybe they will make a trade for a DB or an OL? Looks like they like how trading for CMC worked out last year.
Just saw highlights but d¡solid game and good adjustments by the defense in the 2nd half to get the win.
The defense showed up in the end but they need help in the secondary.
The OL was better this game, let's see if it holds up.
BTW that showdown with Dallas looms large, if only because Micah Parsons looks even better this year (and no, the Niners would not have drafted him).
I will try and catch a replay tomorrow and get a better grip on things.
One more thing: Stop with the winning streak against the Rams. It means zilch if they lost the NFCCG to them.
The defense showed up in the end but they need help in the secondary.
The OL was better this game, let's see if it holds up.
BTW that showdown with Dallas looms large, if only because Micah Parsons looks even better this year (and no, the Niners would not have drafted him).
I will try and catch a replay tomorrow and get a better grip on things.
One more thing: Stop with the winning streak against the Rams. It means zilch if they lost the NFCCG to them.
They definitely looked better in the second half. The defense looked soft in the first half; left a lot of 5-7 yard screens and tosses open - the secondary was playing back. I think Kittle's production is going to take a big hit this year - he spent a lot of time helping pass protect and run block on the right side of the line.
I watched the entire game on Replay.
Purdy did indeed miss some wide open long passes, he needs to work on that, but to his credit he takes full responsibility.
I liked the defensive adjustments even better having seen the whole game. Stafford is quite good again after the injury and they seem to have found two very good weapns in Naqua and Atwell.
Towards the end, Purdy was poised, while Stafford was rattled and threw two INTs, plus a play where he was forced to throw the ball away (and ended up being called for grounding).
All in all, this team looks amazing, but it's only week 2.
Purdy did indeed miss some wide open long passes, he needs to work on that, but to his credit he takes full responsibility.
I liked the defensive adjustments even better having seen the whole game. Stafford is quite good again after the injury and they seem to have found two very good weapns in Naqua and Atwell.
Towards the end, Purdy was poised, while Stafford was rattled and threw two INTs, plus a play where he was forced to throw the ball away (and ended up being called for grounding).
All in all, this team looks amazing, but it's only week 2.
Purdy missed some home runs but generally he played well: no turnovers, only one sack (for zero yards lost), hit some plays down the field and got some third-down conversions. Against all but the best teams they don't really need him to do more than that.
I hate Thursday night games. If tonight’s game was Sunday I’d bet the house on the niners and the 10 points, but Thursday’s suck and so much sluggish weirdness can happen.
Add in the air quality (wildfire smoke), though it is clearing a bit today...
Never said he did not play well. He was poised, in control and handled everything extremely well. But he does need to hit those wide open receivers. Reminder that they have an extra Lombardi if Jimmy G hits Emanuel Sanders. Oops, too soon....
Giants blitzed Brock constantly in this game. One of the highest blitz rates you’ll see.
Impressed Brock adjusted in the second half and closed out that game.
View: https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/status/1705060969909719514
Impressed Brock adjusted in the second half and closed out that game.
View: https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/status/1705060969909719514
This stat is amazing. And Brock still threw for 310 yards (career high).
He still needs to work on some deep throws, he may need them at some point.
Can anyone tell me how the hell Brock Purdy is so good in the NFL? I mean, he was fine in college, but nothing remarkable really. High completion percentage, not a great TD-INT rate for a big-time QB (19:8 his senior year, when other guys are going for 30+ td).
Various scouting reports:
Lance Zierlein, NFL.com:
Four-year starter who was never able to improve upon a stellar sophomore campaign. Purdy is a burly pocket quarterback who needs a play-action based offense where he can rely on timing over release quickness and arm strength. He can be a confident passer when he finds his rhythm, but throwing is more of a chore than a talent thanks to a labored release. Certain areas of the field will be off limits as he moves up to take on NFL coverage talent. He's a scrappy runner but not dynamic enough to make up for his shortcomings as a passer.
Charlie Campbell, Walter Football:
To start out on the positive, Purdy is an efficient rhythm passer who makes very good decisions overall. He is accurate in the short to intermediate part of the field, throwing a very catchable ball with nice touch. … On the negative side, Purdy does not have a powerful arm and he is not a mobile running threat. Regularly, Purdy can struggle to avoid pass rushers and blitzes. … While Purdy does not have a starter's skill set, he could develop into being a solid pro backup. Purdy looks like a mid-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, and he could easily go in the early rounds of Day 3.
Ian Cummings, Pro Football Network:
Purdy is a legitimate NFL Draft prospect. However, what’s up for debate is what kind of upside he possesses and where he should ultimately go. Physical traits rest on a spectrum, and Purdy is on the right side of that spectrum. He has above-average athleticism and an above-average arm. Still, neither of those traits are elite. In fact, one could argue that Purdy has no elite traits.
So he was seen as a guy who could make an NFL roster, and do pretty well in the right system, but obviously NOBODY saw him as a great QB prospect. Not unlike a Mr. Tom Brady, mind you. But (1) he seems to have "it" - that certain something that makes him play better than what you'd THINK he is capable of, and (2) clearly he's in the right system, with the right talent around him. I do wonder how he'd do on, say, Arizona.
Various scouting reports:
Lance Zierlein, NFL.com:
Four-year starter who was never able to improve upon a stellar sophomore campaign. Purdy is a burly pocket quarterback who needs a play-action based offense where he can rely on timing over release quickness and arm strength. He can be a confident passer when he finds his rhythm, but throwing is more of a chore than a talent thanks to a labored release. Certain areas of the field will be off limits as he moves up to take on NFL coverage talent. He's a scrappy runner but not dynamic enough to make up for his shortcomings as a passer.
Charlie Campbell, Walter Football:
To start out on the positive, Purdy is an efficient rhythm passer who makes very good decisions overall. He is accurate in the short to intermediate part of the field, throwing a very catchable ball with nice touch. … On the negative side, Purdy does not have a powerful arm and he is not a mobile running threat. Regularly, Purdy can struggle to avoid pass rushers and blitzes. … While Purdy does not have a starter's skill set, he could develop into being a solid pro backup. Purdy looks like a mid-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, and he could easily go in the early rounds of Day 3.
Ian Cummings, Pro Football Network:
Purdy is a legitimate NFL Draft prospect. However, what’s up for debate is what kind of upside he possesses and where he should ultimately go. Physical traits rest on a spectrum, and Purdy is on the right side of that spectrum. He has above-average athleticism and an above-average arm. Still, neither of those traits are elite. In fact, one could argue that Purdy has no elite traits.
So he was seen as a guy who could make an NFL roster, and do pretty well in the right system, but obviously NOBODY saw him as a great QB prospect. Not unlike a Mr. Tom Brady, mind you. But (1) he seems to have "it" - that certain something that makes him play better than what you'd THINK he is capable of, and (2) clearly he's in the right system, with the right talent around him. I do wonder how he'd do on, say, Arizona.
I bumped in to Mark Rypien on a golf course on Wednesday and I think Purdy may be a modern-day version of him. Average physical traits but in a phenomenal system with great talent at all levels on offense.
I have also always been interested in examples like Brock. It is kind of similar to like a post-hype NBA draft prospect. Like a highly touted young player comes in and after 4 years he/she is not as well regarded. I think Brock was basically a rockstar his first two years, but then his junior and senior years did not really show that much improvement at all as well as lesser statistics. I also heard he crushed some processing test the NFL is using now.
Here are is his stats from college https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/brock-purdy-1.html
This is an interesting comp, I think a better one that a lot that get thrown out there for Purdy.
After watching almost every niners game dating back to the 90s (and some of that was real tough to watch), the thing Purdy has in Shanahan's system that no other niners QB has had for Kyle, is complete trust in himself (confidence I guess) and complete trust in the play.
Jimmy notoriously didn't have trust in most of the plays, he made up for it with a crazy quick release and impressive over the middle zip. So, when he saw something breaking open, he could take advantage of it. Lance, probably due to lack of playing time, didn't seem to have enough trust in himself to just let it rip. And Beathard couldn't read a defense.
Purdy is excellent at reading the defense, excellent at processing and knowing where the ball should go in Shanahan's system, but his elite trait (and he has no physical elite traits) is trusting the play and his teammates to be in the right places and just throwing. He's often letting it rip while the WR is just starting his route, knowing he'll be there. Look at both TD passes, Bell hadn't come close to his break yet, and Purdy put it to the sideline where he'd be. Deebo had just started his stutter step when Purdy let the back shoulder deep ball go. I truly believe Jimmy takes a sack on both of those plays. With Brock, they're TDs. Add in that he can be somewhat creative and move in the pocket to avoid the rush and extend things to second windows sometimes and basically it's 30 PPG.
The bolded is key to what we see today. And yeah, Mark Rypien is a good comp. He had one of the best offensive season a QB had had this side of Patrick Mahomes.
A good QB in an offense like this will thrive. But they need him to execute and so far he's done so. There's a reason Shanahan named him starter as soon as he was cleared and later they decided to eat crow and trade Lance.
For me the biggest hurdle is Dallas in two weeks (so far) Micah Parsons looks deadly.
Rypien is a good comp in some ways but is stylistically dissimilar. Rypien was a big guy (6'4 230) who had a big arm and was a great deep-ball thrower -- in his best year, he led the league in yards/completion. He was also kind of a statue and needed an offense that could give him time to let the deeper routes develop.
OTOH, Purdy is a smallish guy (6'0.5, 212) with very good quickness whose biggest weakness is arm strength. Instead he relies on processing and anticipation to compensate.
OTOH, Purdy is a smallish guy (6'0.5, 212) with very good quickness whose biggest weakness is arm strength. Instead he relies on processing and anticipation to compensate.
It remains pretty incredible to me that the Niners completely botched the #3 pick in a loaded draft and completely covered their tracks by nailing the Mr. Irrelevant pick the following year. Of course, the cost of missing Lance was just astounding given how much elite non-QB talent was picked shortly afterwards.
It was the three first round picks, too. SF has just kept the tank full despite giving away that hoard for a guy who has played 1.25 games.
Yup. You can play the what if game forever but that mistake was so costly. Purdy is the only reason why it wasn’t catastrophic.
Just imagine that defense with an elite corner like Horn, Surtain, or Parsons. Yikes.
Basically.... a lot of guys can succeed in the perfect spot... strong o-line, dynamic skill players who all can make something out of nothing, top end playcaller, and an elite D that means you never have to press. If he gets drafted by CHI he's probably in the AFL by now. His skillset is a very good fit for what they are asking him to do.
Last night is a great example... he had a ton of yards despite basically all his passes being very short (also he got very lucky on a couple would be picks), and for all the talk about the blitzing and getting it out quick.... 2.34 seconds to throw is... not that fast, that it is the fastest of his career tells you how good that line has been for him. As an example, Burrow for the whole season last year was at 2.4, Tua in the Patriots game was at 1.9. So it seems like Purdy is a good example of a competent thrower who makes mostly good decisions who is in the perfect situation to use those strengths and avoid his weaknesses.
Agree on this. Also agree on the picks. Mac had a pick six that was a bad throw off a guy's hands right to a defender for a TD in the Eagles game. Purdy throws a bad pass in tight coverage, it gets tipped up in the air, and is caught by a 49er for a big gain. You'd think that stuff evens out over a long period of time, but in a short, 2-game span, that would be 7 fewer points for Philly (and one fewer INT on Mac's stat sheet) if that just fell harmlessly incomplete, and on the flip side, it would be 7 fewer points for SF (they scored on that drive, if I recall) and one more INT on Purdy's stat sheet.
Purdy definitely struggled a bit in the early part of the game and Kittle definitely saved him from at least one bad interception. But after adjusting to the blitz, Purdy definitely played better. He does have amazing skill players that get him a ton of YAC, but he also throw a really nice ball. That 20+ yard TD pass to Deebo was really nice. As someone that has only really been falling the 49ers since 2017 (shortly after moving to San Francisco), I can say that Purdy is the best QB I have seen run Kyle's offense. He is like a more mobile, healthier, better decision-making Jimmy G without the super quick release. In fact, I think (at least so far) Purdy seems to run the offense at least as well as Jimmy ever did.
The issue here is that the Niners wamted a QB in that draft and that's why they traded up.
Had they stayed at #12 they probably pick Mac Jones. They made the deal they made because they wanted to be sure not to "miss out". Everyone knew it was Lawrence then Wilson (longshot chance of Lance or Fields but Wilson at # 2). Like was said, they did have a relatively full cupboard but they wanted to move on from Jimmy G. The fact that Lance only played 1.25 games was dictated more by injury than anything else.
And we cannot forget the draft capital given up. Not having a #1 in 2 consecutive years is big. But they have most of the talent signed and about 41MM in cap space they can rollover to next year when some "bills become due". Their window becomes increasingly larger with a 7th round pick rookie deal QB.
