I don’t think it has to be a pre-2018 Chris Sale type but a good no. 3 type with health and upside that can be plugged in this season and next. Someone closer to an Eovaldi when he was traded for.
2023 Starting Rotation
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
He's going to cost a boatload soon, and it they aren't going to pay that, they'll undoubtedly at least see what kind of haul they could get for him.
To sidestep the Yorke thing, a starter at the deadline will give you 10 starts or so before the season's over. So getting one really depends on what your #5 is doing at the time. Replacing a .200 WP guy with an .800 WP can be huge - or even just upgrading to slightly better than average. But who would be our #5, and would an upgrade of X wins make a difference?
I think we're way too far out to speculate. If Paxton/Houck/Whitlock/Bello keep up what they've been doing, the number 5 will be Crawford - more than adequate.
If we end up needing a late-season push, there's also Sale and the AAA guys. (Now I'm ducking shoes.)
I wouldn't pencil any of them in, but if the rotation needs shoring up, it's possible we get a final-third SP out of that bunch. And we'd have a clearer picture on that closer to the deadline.
They also have a surplus of elite young SP and a lineup that needs help. Gavin Williams is stuck in AAA because there is no spot for him in Cleveland.
I don't see the trade route as the best opportunity for value, given that the Sox are trying to reload the farm system and, for once, have space to give out a big free agent contract. Just wait til November and sign Urias (whose stock is conveniently dropping a bit).
Maybe. Urias could definitely be a bounce back candidate to sign at less than insane levels. But IMO they should look into an extension for Verdugo (which shouldn't affect a FA pitcher budget) and still keep the budget at a point looking to do Braves style long-term contracts for guys like Casas, Wong, Mayer, etc... buying out arb years.
As of today, they aren't looking to sell but are looking to add pitching:
https://theathletic.com/4602074/2023/06/11/red-sox-not-selling-yet/
No specific potential names are mentioned, by O'Halloran (obviously) nor speculatively by Chad Jennings the writer::
https://theathletic.com/4602074/2023/06/11/red-sox-not-selling-yet/
No specific potential names are mentioned, by O'Halloran (obviously) nor speculatively by Chad Jennings the writer::
The big If:
We need more arms just to eat innings:
If the next month looks like this past one (11-17) this would all presumably change.
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The problem with a trade for a pitcher now is that, depending on how the next 6 weeks go, other teams might be likely to value the 2023 portion of whoever we would acquire than the Sox would.
Also, to the people advocating for Shane Bieber, his K/9 number for the past 4 years:
14.2
12.5
8.9
6.6
Also, to the people advocating for Shane Bieber, his K/9 number for the past 4 years:
14.2
12.5
8.9
6.6
Where does this team need to be at the trade deadline for this incredibly thin skinned front office to accept that this isn’t a championship level team and a sell off would be the right way to go. I sense they know through declining attendance and TV viewership that the masses are not happy with the current direction of the franchise. If they were say 5 games under and 8-9 games out of the last wildcard would they do the right thing and try to offload the spare parts, which would or could involve players such as
Duval
Turner
Kluber
Arroyo
Kike
Dugo
Paxton
Maybe Young
Maybe Jansen
Pivetta
or would the ownership not like the “appearance” of further reducing the payroll, even though it may be in the teams best interest?
Duval
Turner
Kluber
Arroyo
Kike
Dugo
Paxton
Maybe Young
Maybe Jansen
Pivetta
or would the ownership not like the “appearance” of further reducing the payroll, even though it may be in the teams best interest?
Reading those quotes, it's not hard to see them setting themselves up for a repeat of last year's trade deadline ... false hope by a June run, hanging around just close enough through July, then a mixed bag at the deadline.
His velocity was definitely lower when he faced the Sox last week than I remember it being other years.
They can trade all of those guys & still maintain or increase their payroll, & probably would as part of a plan to get the best prospects in return back that they can.
I wouldn't really be looking to move Verdugo, though. & idk who Young is (but if you mean Martin I wouldn't move him), but they should be moving on from the rest for the highest bidder of they aren't closer by the deadline.
& if they have a legit chance of playoffing, they'll keep trying to thread the needle.
Cora's right, though. What if the last turn through the rotation is predictive of how Paxton/Bello/Houck/Whitlock are going to pitch moving forward? They looked like a completely different team this weekend. With Sale down, they do need another top-end starter. Maybe a reunion with old friend E-Rod?
Why not, this year is like a repeat of last year anyway. Like you said, it's like Wile E. Coyote starring in "Groundhog Day."
I don't think a rotation of Paxton and 4 inexperienced young guys is going to be competitive in the
I hope to be wrong about that though.
An Edro reunion is enticing given his improved control this year. He's not as good as his ERA (his FIP and xERA ar about a full run higher), but even if he regresses to those, he's still a low-mid 3s ERA type starter which is what you were hoping Sale could give you if he was healthy. He might not cost too much either since he has a player opt-out after this year if he wants it (which he might if he keeps this up).
I actually think that up-and-down is a very likely outcome, and not a terrible one, especially if there is more up than down. It likely won't translate into playoffs this year, but it should give the Sox a very good idea about potential rotation building blocks for '24 and beyond.Why not, this year is like a repeat of last year anyway. Like you said, it's like Wile E. Coyote starring in "Groundhog Day."
I don't think a rotation of Paxton and 4 inexperienced young guys is going to be competitive in theEuropean Super Leaguethis year's AL East. They have looked good lately (against the Judge-less Yankees playing a veritable "Who's That" of outfielders) but I'd expect them to be very up-and-down for the rest of the year.
I hope to be wrong about that though.
Per Fangraphs, in the past 14 days Red Sox starters are 3rd in MLB for WAR, 3rd in FIP, 6th in XFIP. (And this includes the Dermody start)
The likelier scenario is that his hamstring heals and he's effective again, and he's #2 on the market after only Otani. He's 26 so it's a rare case of not paying for past performance.
I guess we won't say too much until we get a full(ish) season of data, but are we sure Paxton isn't the ace we need to sign for next year? I know people will chime in, or at least be thinking, that guy's always hurt. But what if he isn't?
Paxton's been terrific. It's just that every time he goes out there, you wonder
He's been great.
If Bello, Houck, Crawford and Whitlock all round into shape and seem healthy, Paxton seems like a good guy to throw Wacha/Eovaldi money at and hope he stays healthy. I'd note that Crawford and Whitlock have exceptional K/BB ratios right now, Bello has obviously been very good, and peripherals for Houck have been good as well.
The nature of pitching of course is the guy who seemed healthy last year might be next years rotator cuff surgery candidate.
Yeah, well apart from TJ (I know, Mrs. Lincoln) he's been steadily OK but with little things costing him starts. Never made 30 in a season and not on pace to now. I suspect his future is more like his run from 2016-19, missing a month here or there, rather than another catastrophic injury since those are actually pretty rare and the one he had is fixed up nicely for a while. Anyway, yeah, Wacha money... noting that Wacha is 3 years younger but a 101 career ERA+, while Paxton is 34 and has a lifetime 115 and better peripherals across the board.
I also think Kluber has to start in Minnesota and formally reinserted into rotation - no other bodies.
Winckowski hasn't pitched since 2 innings Wednesday. It would probably take a couple times through the rotation to get him stretched back out.
Pivetta hasn't pitched since Monday & also isn't stretched out, but is probably a possibility.
I would like to see Drohan called up.
If they do try Walter tomorrow & he does ok, no reason not to keep running him out there.
Basically anything but that plz.
People were discussing that as an option a week ago & haven't heard anything about improved health, so seems like a legit option.
Bradfo says no Drohan.
View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1670212940983664640
We'll need 1 pitcher for tomorrow & another for Thursday I guess, so Walter Sunday/ Drohan Thursday makes some (& Walter could be Friday too if he pitches well tomorrow, or Bello).
View: https://twitter.com/gfstarr1/status/1670185543374626820
View: https://twitter.com/gfstarr1/status/1670189213210247172
If we don't see Pivetta for a few days, we might have our answer. Quick internet search suggests 3-6 week healing times for facial fractures. I wonder what the deal is with pitching while healing? Jaylen Brown took 11 days from his vaguely similar injury before appearing in the All Star Game, and then played regular season games from that point.
Kluber seems more likely than Pivetta, at least to me. Kluber seems to be used in longer stints, with Pivetta more in a Schreiber replacement role. I’d imagine Murphy gets the call up, at least.
Why do we need a pitcher tomorrow? Wouldn’t tomorrow be Paxton on normal rest, so it should just be bello then Paxton no?
That’s what I would think, but the tweet above says Paxton Monday which I can’t figure out
Not a bad idea to give him an extra day every now and then.
I mean, what's wrong with giving Pivetta the start as an opener in Game 1? It might motivate him
Honestly, the only reason I'd rather not, is that it takes a righty power arm out of late game situations in both games.
It's not Walter tomorrow.
View: https://twitter.com/SmittyOnMLB/status/1670226482965118976
But yeah the Red Sox have announced TBD 1st game tomorrow & the rest moved back. I think to avoid trouble later in the week.
& they get a 27th guy tomorrow, so spot starter that day makes sense.
View: https://twitter.com/SmittyOnMLB/status/1670226482965118976
But yeah the Red Sox have announced TBD 1st game tomorrow & the rest moved back. I think to avoid trouble later in the week.
& they get a 27th guy tomorrow, so spot starter that day makes sense.
The way the Yankees are hitting right now, I'm not sure that matters
I don’t mind giving him an extra day, it was just being stated as a certainty and I was wondering if a reason had been given. Using the extra roster spot for the double header for a spot starter makes sense though