2024 Bruins Off Season News - Everyone Else But the Center

[TSC]

Some interesting bits from TheFourthPeriod yesterday.

1st - Something we can all get behind:
View: https://twitter.com/BruinsBenders/status/1798350706891796788


2nd - It would obviously depend on the term and the value, but Heinen was a great, cheap add last season. He would be a lot less valuable if he made much more than he made, however.
View: https://twitter.com/TheFourthPeriod/status/1798074007285379435

 

[IdiotKicker]

Yeah, the fact that they can find a guy like Heinen for 1x0.8 last year is exactly why you don’t give Heinen 2x2.5 or something similar this year. You don’t need to spend that much for fourth-liners. They do need upgrades at wing on the first three lines, and I’d rather spend the money there.

 

[cshea]

Yeah, the fact that they can find a guy like Heinen for 1x0.8 last year is exactly why you don’t give Heinen 2x2.5 or something similar this year. You don’t need to spend that much for fourth-liners. They do need upgrades at wing on the first three lines, and I’d rather spend the money there.

I normally agree but I think I'd be OK with a 3-year $1.5-$2 million AAV for him. I think he provides more value than your typical 4th liner. I don't think he's a dime a dozen type player. The versatility to move around the lineup and play multiple positions is valuable. He can kill penalties, play on PP2, etc. Jack of all trades. Worth having him around and at a number like that it's not too onerous.

A few things line up for a potential discount. He's familiar with the organization and has a history with Monty. I have no idea what he will be prioritizing but after spending the past 4 or so years in limbo with the 1-year deal/PTO cycle, he may value term over dollars.

 

[FisksFinger]

Who the hell are we all going to unite to bitch about in the game threads with Forbort leaving?

 

[cshea]

Carlo

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

There are too many men to choose from.

 

[Cotillion]

There are too many men to choose from.

and that was the problem... there often were "Too Many Men"... maybe they will sort that little penalty problem out over the offseason...

 

[Myt1]

There are too many men to choose from.

 

[IdiotKicker]

I normally agree but I think I'd be OK with a 3-year $1.5-$2 million AAV for him. I think he provides more value than your typical 4th liner. I don't think he's a dime a dozen type player. The versatility to move around the lineup and play multiple positions is valuable. He can kill penalties, play on PP2, etc. Jack of all trades. Worth having him around and at a number like that it's not too onerous.

A few things line up for a potential discount. He's familiar with the organization and has a history with Monty. I have no idea what he will be prioritizing but after spending the past 4 or so years in limbo with the 1-year deal/PTO cycle, he may value term over dollars.

If you can get the AAV under 2, I’m fine with it. I know the overage beyond that doesn’t seem like much, but if you do that across your fourth line and bottom D pair (as we tend to with those $2.5-3.5M AAV deals), you quickly eat through $3-5M in cap space that could otherwise be spent on a top-6 guy.

 

[burstnbloom]

I don't think Heinen is a 4th line player. He was the 7th most valuable forward on the roster this year according to Dom's model. More valuable than Frederic and Geekie, and that is with unfavorable deployment compared to those two for most of the year (the top line time being the obvious exception). He's a very valuable player who can play 8 different wing spots in a pitch and play good defense and passable play driving on offense, even with Pasta. I wouldn't have any issue with signing him to the Luostorainen deal. He's a perfect compliment to a kid like Poitras on the third line.

There are other places where they can save money on lesser players like the aforementioned Geekie, who should be a sell high candidate. If you have Heinen and Fred on the wings for Poitras, Geekie is on the 4th line for $2m and he can pretty easily be replaced with a league min guy, IMO. There was nothing special about his play this year and I think I'd have him safely third out of Heinen, Fred and Geekie. As for a whipping boy, its Andrew Peeke. Not even close. He's bad, brings no offense and has hands like feet. Perfect Forbort whipping boy replacement. That trade was a mistake and I think we will feel it a lot more this upcoming season.

 

[IdiotKicker]

I guess my view is that he was the 7th most valuable forward on a roster that was notably short on forward depth. While the 2023 roster was skewed in the opposite direction, I think he has trouble even cracking the game day roster. His true value is probably somewhere in the 9-11 range on a team looking to compete for a Cup. I don’t think he’s a horrible player, but I think the consequences of overpaying for bottom 6 forwards, even with his versatility, can be meaningful.

 

[burstnbloom]

I guess my view is that he was the 7th most valuable forward on a roster that was notably short on forward depth. While the 2023 roster was skewed in the opposite direction, I think he has trouble even cracking the game day roster. His true value is probably somewhere in the 9-11 range on a team looking to compete for a Cup. I don’t think he’s a horrible player, but I think the consequences of overpaying for bottom 6 forwards, even with his versatility, can be meaningful.

Ok, I'll frame it a different way. Danton Heinen had the same amount of 5v5 points as Pavel Buchnevich, 1 less than Kyle Connor, 1 more than Chris Kreider. He was 34th in 5v5 scoring for LW in the 2023/24 season for raw points and 24th for LW who played 900+ minutes at 5v5. When you couple that with his above average defensive impact, paying him $3m a year is not something that would hurt this team in the least. The Panthers have 2 guys making $3m on their third line in Luostarinen an Rodrigues. ERod was a bit better and Luostarinen was a bit worse, but similar players.

In general I agree you don't want to pay a premium in the bottom six, but this team has a bunch of bad players in their bottom 6 and this player is good, and criminally underrated. I think he's someone the bruins should retain unless they need that money to get an impact player, of which I don't think there are many that are going to be available this year. I'd much rather have Heinen than any of the other players in the bottom six other than Poitras and probably Fred. If they play Geekie on the fourth line, don't bring in some "vet snarl" guy for $2.5m on the fourth line, they would be in pretty good shape.

Heinen ($3m)- Poitras ($870k)- Frederic ($2.3)
Brazeau ($700k)- Beecher ($925k) - Geekie ($2)

That's 9.795m or 11% of the cap.

This year the oilers have $8.075 in their bottom 6 (and $3m next year lol Connor Brown) which is 10% of this year's cap. The Panthers have $9.475 in their bottom six, which is 11.5% of this year's cap.

TL;DR- Heinen is a much more valuable player than he gets credit for being and a 3 or 4 year deal at $3m is probably a smart move by the Bruins.

 

[NoraCook]

Who the hell are we all going to unite to bitch about in the game threads with Forbort leaving?

Carlo tooo

 

[TSC]

Carlo tooo

Huh? Carlo is signed through 26/27.

 

[TheAOE]

Carlo Grzelcyk tooo

FTFY

 

[TSC]

https://ottawacitizen.com/ottawa-senators/senators-step-up-efforts-to-land-ullmark

With Jacob Markstrom dealt to Devils, Senators step up efforts to land Boston's Linus Ullmark
League sources say the Senators have circled back to the Bruins to see if there's a fit to acquire Ullmark to steady the club's struggling net, and those talks have intensified.

 

[amfox1]

From the article posted by TSC:

We’re led to believe the Bruins may have some interest in taking back Forsberg because he only has one year left at $2.75 million on his deal, but the indications are there’s work to be done if the two sides are going to be able to make a deal.

A league executive believes the Senators would likely have to offer defenceman Jakob Chychrun along with a first-round pick and another selection to acquire Ullmark. Even then, he has a modified no-trade clause that has 15 teams on it and it’s not known if Ottawa is on that list.

 

[TSC]

From that article:

A league executive believes the Senators would likely have to offer defenceman Jakob Chychrun along with a first-round pick and another selection to acquire Ullmark.

I mean. Sign me the fuck up?

 

[Jeff Frye's Face Mask]

From that article:

I mean. Sign me the fuck up?

I’d be ecstatic with that return as well.

 

[Murby]

Sign me up as well. The fact it’s gotten this far along also suggests to me Ullmark has not nixed the idea of going to Ottawa.

 

[Salem's Lot]

From that article:

I mean. Sign me the fuck up?

If that was on the table (and not blocked by a NMC) it would be done already IMHO.

 

[cshea]

Yeah, that value seems crazy unless the Bruins are adding something else.

Chychrun seems to be another white whale for the Bruins, constantly linked to him in rumors. H'es 26 and a pending UFA. I haven't followed him a ton in Ottawa but his price should be lower than the 1st and 2 2nds Ottawa gave up. Bruins are losing Grzelyck and Forbort so an LHD is on the list of needs.

Regarding Ullmark's NTC and Ottawa. Geographically, it's not *that* far from Boston, and he did spend 6 years in Rochester and Buffalo which is closer to Ottawa. He may have some familiarity with the area. Additionally, I have no idea if there is a connection between the two, but Daniel Alfredsson is a Swedish hockey legend, spent 95% of his career in Ottawa and is currently on Ottawa's coaching staff.

 

[TSC]

If I’m the Bruins - I’m asking for the 7th OA pick straight up.

If Ottawa says no, pick 25 and Zack Ostapachuk is something I could see happening. Ostapachuk is a 6’4, 205+lb 21 year old who has some offensive instincts.

Reports are that he has an NHL level legit shot, plays like a big boy, and has a penchant for rising to the moment. He’s also incredibly adept at playing in his own end.

He probably tops out as a top-9 forward, with top-6 upside at his peak. He won’t 100% replace losing DeBrusk - but seems like he can do a lot of what Jake did right away.

View: https://twitter.com/bmattern9/status/1767623259644895708?s=46


View: https://twitter.com/icdave/status/1648919551646613504?s=46

 

[cshea]

Pagnotta cites 2 sources saying that Ullmark has Ottawa on his NTC list but would waive.

https://www.thefourthperiod.com/pagnotta/ullmark-trade-talks-picking-up

There is a growing belief that Ullmark will find a new home within the next two weeks. The Bruins have other holes to fill, and with Jeremy Swayman about to cash in on a big contract extension – I’m told those discussions are moving positively – Ullmark is preparing for a potential move.

Sweeney is expected to escalate some those other trade talks as early today, though it is unclear how many teams remain in the hunt. As I mentioned on NHL Network on Wednesday, the Ottawa Senators pushed for Ullmark during the season and have recently circled back in a big way, while the Toronto Maple Leafs, Detroit Red Wings and Carolina Hurricanes are three other teams weighing their goaltending options.

The Leafs are not in the mix for Ullmark, though, as Toronto is on his no-trade list. Ottawa is also believed to be on his list, but two separate sources have told me he would accept a trade to the Senators if a deal between the two teams is finalized.

 

[TSC]

View: https://twitter.com/tspsimmerdown/status/1803902179209809994?s=46

 

[joe dokes]

View: https://twitter.com/tspsimmerdown/status/1803902179209809994?s=46

A GM desperate to "win" a trade, will never have a significant trade.

 

[Sandwich Pick]

A GM desperate to "win" a trade, will never have a significant trade.

"The best trade is a trade that works for both teams. Because then, you can make another trade with that team."

- Brian Burke

 

[cshea]

Divver says Bussi’s deal is almost done.

https://twitter.com/markdivver/status/1804216388044587405?s=46&t=23orJRFkAhpzRtm4p3-oEw

 

[TSC]

View: https://twitter.com/MarkDivver/status/1804216388044587405


Gonna need someone to back up Swaggyman when Ullmark is traded for the 7th OA.

 

[TSC]

View: https://twitter.com/NHL_Watcher/status/1804225919373963343

 

[Dim13]

Really starting to wonder if the Red Wings decide to get involved in the Ullmark talks. They were a borderline playoff team last year with Alex Lyon playing the majority of the games.

 

[TSC]

View: https://twitter.com/dominictiano/status/1804500685767020938?s=46

 

[cshea]

Friedman’s latest pod updates on Ullmark:

- The Ottawa rumor is real. They are on Ullmark’s NTC list (more on that) but Friedman doesn’t rule it out.
- Yzerman said he was looking for a long-term goalie so Detroit may be involved.
- There may be more urgency with Markstrom & Kuemper off the board.
- Bruins have a high price. Does it come down
- The NTC drops from 16 to 14, but Ullmark’s list is curated so that it is in effect bigger than 14. Basically Ullmark and the agent assess each team and put the teams they think need a goalie on it. As an example, he may not want to go to New York but New York has Shesterkin so he can leave them off and use a slot on a team that needs a goalie.
- This is where the extension comes in. Blocking LA wasn’t necessarily about the team or situation but that he didn’t want to move his family mid-season across the country. If he can work out an extension, he might be willing to waive.

Should be a fun week. Kinda wild in the next 9 days we have a Stanley Cup Finals Game 7, the draft and free agency.

 

[Salem's Lot]

I take this as Ullmark’s agent putting pressure on Ottawa.if we’ve learned anything from how this team operates under Neely/Sweeney is that they don’t leak information.

It tells me that the framework of a trade is probably done, but Ottawa is not meeting the contract asking price, which based on those numbers are very reasonable. Maybe two days of Senators fans calling sports radio up there screaming about the owner being cheap will move the needle.

 

[RedOctober3829]

View: https://twitter.com/dominictiano/status/1804567549008294329?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q

 

[TSC]

if I had to guess:

Bruins get:
25th OA
Chychrun
Ostapchuk

Ottawa gets:
Ullmark
Lauko

 

[bosox33]

if I had to guess:

Bruins get:
25th OA
Chychrun
Ostapchuk

Ottawa gets:
Ullmark
Lauko

My guess would be that we have to take Forsberg back, I'd doubt Ostapchuk is included and I'd extremely doubt Lauko.

 

[jk333]

if I had to guess:

Bruins get:
25th OA
Chychrun
Ostapchuk

Ottawa gets:
Ullmark
Lauko

It would be amazing to get a decent player and a 1st for Ullmark.

On one hand, Bruins need players for their team now but on the other, you need 1st round level prospects to come up at some point and contribute and they have drafted only one 1st rounder since 2019.

 

[Salem's Lot]

It would be amazing to get a decent player and a 1st for Ullmark.

On one hand, Bruins need players for their team now but on the other, you need 1st round level prospects to come up at some point and contribute and they have drafted only one 1st rounder since 2019.

Any 1st rounder the Bruins get in that deal probably gets flipped along with a prospect or two for a center.

 

[TSC]

My guess would be that we have to take Forsberg back, I'd doubt Ostapchuk is included and I'd extremely doubt Lauko.

There is almost no scenario in which the Bruins trade Ullmark at 5 million a year just to take back Forsberg at 2.75 million a year unless Ottawa is retaining half that contract.

Even then - the Bruins are on the verge of signing Bussi so I doubt even with retention they take him.

Look at what Markstrom just got. The Bruins are not getting less than that for a much better and younger goalie.

 

[bosox33]

There is almost no scenario in which the Bruins trade Ullmark at 5 million a year just to take back Forsberg at 2.75 million a year unless Ottawa is retaining half that contract.

Even then - the Bruins are on the verge of signing Bussi so I doubt even with retention they take him.

Look at what Markstrom just got. The Bruins are not getting less than that for a much better and younger goalie.

I hope you're right, but I feel people may have their hopes too high on the return. Forsberg would compete with Bussi and absolute worst case is he loses that battle, gets waived and somehow no one in the league claims him, and then they bury what 1.5M of his salary since the rest wouldn't count if he plays in Prov?

 

[jk333]

Any 1st rounder the Bruins get in that deal probably gets flipped along with a prospect or two for a center.

If there is a center available that’s worth a 1st (and more) and is better than the incumbents that would be great too!

It will be exciting to see what they do.

 

[cshea]

If they get a 1st I can almost guarantee they use it to pick a player or trade down for multiple 2nd/3rds.

 

[bosox33]

If they get a 1st I can almost guarantee they use it to pick a player or trade down for multiple 2nd/3rds.

I'd love it if they came away with the 25th pick, Chychrun, Forsberg (to help Ottawa with the money and to compete with Bussi in camp), and one of Ottawa's 4th round picks.

Even that I feel like I'm setting myself up for disappointment.

 

[Salem's Lot]

I'd love it if they came away with the 25th pick, Chychrun, Forsberg (to help Ottawa with the money and to compete with Bussi in camp), and one of Ottawa's 4th round picks.

Even that I feel like I'm setting myself up for disappointment.

I have zero interest in Forsberg at $2.75 million. That’s a negative asset.

 

[bosox33]

I have zero interest in Forsberg at $2.75 million. That’s a negative asset.

It's not so much that I have interest, as it is that I'm trying to boost the return outside of him. Like I mentioned earlier the worst case is we have 1.5M in dead cap.

 

[barclay]

It's not so much that I have interest, as it is that I'm trying to boost the return outside of him. Like I mentioned earlier the worst case is we have 1.5M in dead cap.

If thats the case then wouldn't it be better to eat the 1.5 mill immediately, then ship him to some team that needs a backup G for 1 mill a year and get something in return -- a late round draft pick for ex. Better than nothing!

 

[bosox33]

If thats the case then wouldn't it be better to eat the 1.5 mill immediately, then ship him to some team that needs a backup G for 1 mill a year and get something in return -- a late round draft pick for ex. Better than nothing!

Of course, worst case is no one wants him and then we eat 1.5M. I'm betting that wouldn't be necessary and it's more likely that he gets grabbed on waivers by somebody rather than ever making it to Prov.

 

[amfox1]

Ian Mitchell re-signs 1 year, 2 way, $775k extension, per team release.

 

[cshea]

Updates from the Ottawa side:

https://ottawacitizen.com/ottawa-senators/staios-sets-up-shop-vegas-busy-week-begins

We’re at the tipping point for this trade, where it either happens or the talks go off the rails. The Bruins are looking for a big return for Ullmark, but they aren’t dealing from a position of strength.



Staios likely doesn’t want to do this deal without having an extension in place and you can’t blame him for that, but Ullmark also wants this trade to happen on his terms and he has control with a 14-team no trade list.



David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period has reported Ullmark is willing to waive his no-move clause to come to Ottawa if the two sides can get a new contract in place.

I disagree with Garrioch's statement that the Bruins aren't dealing from a position of strength. They do have leverage. They have the player under contract for another season. They have the cap space to bring him back if they so choose. They don't need to trade Ullmark. It makes sense for the Bruins to trade him given the goalie depth chart, salary structure and needs elsewhere on the roster but it is not a necessity. They aren't under the cap pressure like they were last year when they had to deal Hall for two AHL defensman.