2024 MLB Draft - Potential future Sox

TimScribble

TimScribble

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The 2024 MLB draft is still 4 months away but mock draft season has started. Most think Boston will take a pitcher but as last season’s draft showed us, you never know how it will unfold. The Red Sox have the 12th pick.

BA Mock 3/18/24:

12. Red Sox — Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke

Boston has one of the most hitter-heavy farm systems in the game. There’s some thought they could be targeting pitching in 2024 after taking bats in the first round for five straight drafts going back to 2018 (the team didn’t have a 2019 first round pick). If that’s the case, Duke southpaw Jonathan Santucci could be one of the best options available here. He had a fairly forgettable game in a highly-scouted matchup against Wake Forest two weeks ago, but he sits in the mid-90s with a riding fastball, shows a plus slider and has the makings of a solid changeup as well. If he keeps posting throughout the spring it’s hard to not see him going somewhere in the middle of the first round—or higher.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2024-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-charlie-condon-jac-caglianone-make-strong-impressions/
 
LogansDad

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I am very curious to see what they do this year. I wonder if they go with a high floor college arm who might sign under slot with their first pick, and then go above slot in the next couple rounds on projectable high school kids.
 
simplicio

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Most reporting has this being an unusually weak class, wonder if they go underslot and spread the money around or try to poach a committed HS player.
 
Jed Zeppelin

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Will be very interesting to get this first glimpse at the new brain trust’s draft strategy.

The funny thing is you could kind of make a case for a similar strategy to Bloom under the idea that the Breslow/Bailey machine can draw more value out of cheaper but maybe untapped arm talent. That was Bloom’s idea but who knows if anyone was around to actually develop those arms.

You can denigrate Bloom all you want but it is still a reality that high school arms are the highest risk so I could see the new guys having similar ideas.
 
JM3

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The other interesting thing is they haven't really switched up their drafting infrastructure, & still have guys like Pearson & Toboni in important positions.

I wonder if it will be more of an adjustment in what traits they are looking for in pitchers more so than a change in overall draft strategy.

Seems quite possible they will draft a college pitcher in the 1st round, though, because that's what this draft seems to be deeper at toward our range.

Here's the slot value by pick. No extra picks this year unlike last year:

1(12): $5,484,600
2(50): $1,846,400
3(86): $878,800
4(115): $630,900
5(148): $457,900
6(177): $351,100
7(207): $274,600
8(237): $219,900
9(267): $194,600
10(297): $182,800

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2024-mlb-draft-bonus-pools-slot-values-for-each-team/

& here's a look at the "Arsenal+" on some of those pitchers:

View: https://twitter.com/DrummeyDylan/status/1775308042189296018
 
JM3

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simplicio said:
Klaw released his top 50 last week: https://theathletic.com/5421487/2024/04/18/mlb-draft-2024-prospect-rankings-top-50-keith-law?source=user-shared-article

He has Santucci down at 39 over questions about throwing strikes.
Click to expand...
List of the pitchers on his top 50 (ages are as of today)...

#6 Chase Burns, RHP, 21
#7 Hagen Smith, LHP, 20
#13 Trey Yesavage, RHP, 20
#16 Brody Brecht, RHP, 21
#25 Cam Caminiti, LHP, 17
#26 William Schmidt, RHP, 18
#27 Ryan Sloan, RHP, 18
#28 Kash Mayfield, LHP 19
#35 Joey Oakie, RHP, 17
#37 David Shields, LHP, 17
#38 Tegan Kuhns, RHP, 18
#39 Jonathan Santucci, LHP, 21
#40 Luke Holman, RHP, 20
#44 Ryan Johnson, RHP, 21
#47 Carter Holton, LHP, 21
#49 Ben Hess, RHP, 21
#50 Michael Massey, RHP, 21

So probably not a lot of likely 1st round college arms.
 
JM3

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12. Boston Red Sox: SS Bryce Rainer, Harvard-Westlake High School (CA)

Rainer was the consensus top performer at USA Baseball's National High School Invitational, and a weak high school class has quickly pushed him up draft boards. He has a strong, projectable 6'3", 195-pound frame, significant raw power and the defensive chops to stick at shortstop. If he continues to show he can make consistent hard contact, he could push Konnor Griffin to be the first high schooler taken in 2024.
Click to expand...
View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10118176-2024-mlb-mock-draft-20-early-picks-for-every-1st-round-selection
 
JM3

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simplicio said:
CA high school SS? They realize we fired Bloom, right?
Click to expand...
The more things change...

There seems to be a big gap between the top 3 college pitchers who are all projected to be drafted before us, & the next batch who are expected to go in the 20s. Shame we can't trade down or up.
 
JM3

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Latest Pipeline Mock Draft has the Red Sox taking...

12. Red Sox: Seaver King, 3B/OF, Wake Forest (No. 13)
As of right now, it seems like the Red Sox and Giants are in on the next wave of college bats, and it’s possible they both have the same two hitters atop that list. One is King, who hit .424 on the Cape last summer and has an OPS north of 1.000 this year in his first year at Wake. The other is …
Click to expand...
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2024-mock-draft-may-2?t=mlb-draft-coverage

With this guy going 1 pick ahead of them to the Tigers:

View: https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1786549337251598448

A clear top 11 when we have the 12th pick seems not optimal, but it's early.

What does seem fairly certain as of right now is that there is some consensus that the top 11 names in our Top 150 have separated themselves. That’s not to say a team in the top 11 won’t take someone not in that list, allowing one (or more) of that 11 to drop down some. But this edition, I have those names going in the top 11, all but two of them college players, albeit not in the exact order of ranking.
Click to expand...
 
Merkle's Boner

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Yeah I’m really hoping Yesavage falls to 12. I know you’re not supposed to draft for need in baseball but Sox really need quality arms in the system.
 
Joe Nation

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Latest mock draft by Keith Law of the Athletic (May 15, 2024)
12. Red Sox: James Tibbs III, OF, Florida State

Tibbs has probably been the biggest riser among college players this year, as he’s had more homers than strikeouts for Florida State and model-heavy teams seem to love him. Also, shame on everyone if we don’t nickname him King Tibbs III.
Click to expand...
 
zenax

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If you go to bb-ref, select MLB Summary (just under 2024 MLB standings) and then select Previous Season, then pick New Debuts under Other, then Batting, Scroll down to the Batting stats and sort that by PA (descending):
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-debuts.shtml#all_misc_batting

You get a list of all players (including pitchers) who made their MLB debut in 2023. SOme of them show stats from the 2024 season. There ia one player with more than 700 PA, 3 players in the 600s, 4 players in the 500s, 6 in teh 400s (including one who hasn't played this season). All told, there are 261 players listed; 153 with no PA.

In other words, a lot of the players listed as making their debut in 2023 were position players called up to fill in fpr injured players or late-season call-ups, so it is not easy to look at rookies and compare them to other rookies before you know if one is just a call-up or a future regular.

And btw, the table above Batting Stats is Biographical Information and includes first and last game dates as well as positions played. If you simply change the year in the above URL, it is easier to check other years: for example, there were only 24 players making their debut in 1950 who accumulated at least 1000 career PA and a handful of them were pitchers.
 
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