According to the Hardball Times Being Patient At The Plate Doesn't Correlate With Scoring More Runs
- Thread starter CoRP
- Start date
Just looking at the graph there actually is a discernable pattern of lower left to upper right. It's just not as concrete and obvious as a supply curve. Interesting possibilities for why there is not a stronger cause/effect. What would this graph look like over a larger sample size? Why choose only these years?
Maybe the growing numbers of "all or nothing" guys cancels out some of the expected effects of more pitches? It raises the question of what is the correlation then between pitches seen and number of base runners per? If there is none then you have your explanation.
Overbay's comment is illogical. Swing earlier to see the pitcher more later in the game? That only makes sense if there is the abandonment of "get into the bullpen" strategizing. It is the opposite of smart if you take the Ted Williams approach to hitting of "get a good pitch to hit" and its cousin, "the more you stand in the box against a pitcher within an at bat the more comfortable you'll get with his stuff." Maybe this is why Lyle Overbay is the one saying this instead of Miguel Cabrera.
Maybe the growing numbers of "all or nothing" guys cancels out some of the expected effects of more pitches? It raises the question of what is the correlation then between pitches seen and number of base runners per? If there is none then you have your explanation.
Overbay's comment is illogical. Swing earlier to see the pitcher more later in the game? That only makes sense if there is the abandonment of "get into the bullpen" strategizing. It is the opposite of smart if you take the Ted Williams approach to hitting of "get a good pitch to hit" and its cousin, "the more you stand in the box against a pitcher within an at bat the more comfortable you'll get with his stuff." Maybe this is why Lyle Overbay is the one saying this instead of Miguel Cabrera.
I think plate patience is one of those things you might expect to be a bit skewed. There's such a thing as being too patient. The idea is to wait for your pitch, but if you wait and wait until you're in a 2 strike count, it becomes much more difficult to get a hit. Also, if a pitcher is having a bad day, they're going to throw more hittable pitches and it's easier to pick up on that and swing early. As a general rule, plate patience and working the count are good policies but you can't be patient for the sake of being patient, that's what the data shows IMO.
