I'm happy with the Revis signing. I'm a big, giant 'meh' on Wilfork. Probably one of my favorite players of all time, but I will be surprised if he plays more than 10 games this season. A big, giant man (there is no way in hell he is only 320 pounds, he's closer to 400 than he is 300) coming off a major Achilles injury? I'm betting against 99% of the time. I'll root for him anywhere he goes, but when I heard the news yesterday, I was sad that he's leaving, but no part of me was worried about it being a bad decision, and the Pats have about 1,000x more information than I have about what to expect from him this year. If they somehow work something out, which I doubt, I'll be happy to see him in a Pats uniform and I'll hope like hell that he plays like his incredible self and finishes his awesome career here, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see us struggling again next year while he is down with an injury.
And don't take my word for it either, there is actually research to support this. Of the 31 players that suffered Achilles injuries over a 5 year period, only 21 actually returned to play (an average of 11 months later). That's 36% that never played again. Of the 21 that came back, they averaged 5 less games per year over their next 3 years and a 50% average drop in power ratings across the board. Check out this very, lengthy article on the topic:
http://lowerextremityreview.com/article/return-to-football-after-achilles-tendon-rupture
SeoulSoxFan said:I also am befuddled by high-ankle sprains. It seems like one of those lisfranc types where athletes try too soon to come back from (see Gronk, Dee Milliner) and just never get healed properly until a lot of rest.
Anecdotally, it seems like recent cases have been more successful. Terrell Suggs and Michael Crabtree both tore their Achilles in the offseason but didn't even miss the whole year. Jason Peters ruptured his twice in the same offseason but returned to play 16 games last year. Wilfork was a full participant in offseason stuff after less than a full year. Crabtree's pretty young but Suggs, Peters, and Wilfork aren't. Kobe Bryant's a recent non-football example? Is this a procedure where improvements have been made in the last five years or so? Or is my memory selective here?theapportioner said:I performed a quick and dirty literature search on rates of return of NFL players after repair of various musculoskeletal injuries. Basically, small sample sizes and many other sampling caveats, but it seems the rate of return for players after an Achilles rupture is on the lower end of the spectrum compared to others.
Injury type/surgery Proportion that returned to play
Achilles tendon rupture 68% (21 of 31)
Is there a risk factor involved with age here? Four of the five examples I named are towards the older side, and all the 2014 injuries Chris mentioned in the article are to players 30 or over. If the injury disproportionately affects older players, the aggregate numbers might overstate the risk of not coming back (since the affected group might be towards the end of their careers anyway).theapportioner said:Well, assuming that the average career length for NFL players who make an opening day roster is 6.0 years (reference), that would make for an average annual attrition rate of 17%. Assuming that the cohort of players who have suffered Achilles ruptures is a subset of the above group, then the relative increased risk of not returning at all from an Achilles rupture is 32/17 = 1.9.
So, with numerous caveats, the relative increased risk that an Achilles injury ends an NFL player's career is approximately 2x greater than the normal attrition rate for an NFL player. High, but not insurmountable, especially if there are no subsequent complications and the player played at a high level prior to his injury.
http://nflcommunications.com/2011/04/18/what-is-average-nfl-player%E2%80%99s-career-length-longer-than-you-might-think-commissioner-goodell-says/
The tendon usually ruptures in a non-contact injury, most often when the foot is forcibly planted with most or all of the athlete’s weight applied to that leg