Patriots are 3-1 all time in the playoffs against the Steelers. Only loss was the 7-6 game in Pittsburgh when Vrabel stripped sacked Bledsoe.
AFC Championship: Patriots vs Steelers, the buildup
- Thread starter jsinger121
- Start date
Holy shit is this wrong.
Bell petrifies me, and he should scare you too.
Patient running backs have killed the Patriots defense over the years, and Bell is the most patient running back I've ever seen. Due to some combination of bend-but-dont-break, lack of blitzing, gap scheme...whatever it is, I've watched running backs who let the line work for them tear apart the Patriots front more than most other types of backs. Go back and watch the completely pedestrian Knowshon Moreno torch the Patriots by just sitting...and waiting...and waiting...
Moreno stats vs Patriots: 3 games, 446 yards, 5.4 YPC, 149 YPG
Moreno career stats: 3616 yards, 4.1 YPC, 57.4 YPG
Now, the Patriots have done a good job wrangling Bell in the 2 games they've played, but both of those games come with huge caveats. There was no Big Ben this year. The second game was in 2013 when the Steelers got blown out and Bell was limited to 16 carries (in which he had a very productive 4.63 YPC).
It's interesting to me, because I'd assume that the patient scheme the Patriots run (gap control, bend but not break, etc) would lend to swallowing up patient backs. Instead, it seems to give them more time to find creases and the Patriots aren't chasing them down from behind because they aren't aggressive enough. Patient backs like Jamal Charles, Fred Jackson, Moreno have fucked up game plans for the Patriots because the defense can't get off the field. It doesn't mean they always beat the Patriots - after all, its the RB position and the ceiling for how much they can effect a game is limited - but Bell is the new iteration of this type of running back.
His patience is going to be a problem. If it's not, then this game - not the 4 games without Brady - will be the best coaching job done by the Patriots coaching staff this year. I'm not prone to hyperbole, but Bell is a fucking nightmare match up and the 1 player below Aaron Rodgers I didn't want the Patriots to have to see in the playoffs.
So using BaseballJones's ranking a different way (and the way that I think DrewDawg intended):
Overall NFL ranking in parentheses
Offense by points:
- Atlanta (1)
- NE (3)
- GB (4)
- Pitt (10)
- Atlanta (2)
- NE (4)
- Pitt (7)
- GB (8)
- NE (1)
- Pitt (10)
- GB (21)
- Atlanta (27)
- NE (8)
- Pitt (12)
- GB (22)
- Atlanta (25)
From the article linked above:
Still, amusing. But I'm easily amused.
From http://nep.247sports.com/Bolt/LeVeon-Bell-We-can-beat-anybody-right-now-50580066 :
Yep, BB runs a different ship than most others. And yep, Bell MIGHT have said that before being admonished by his coach (though that seems hard to believe since Tomlin was giving a post-game speech, seeming before the media was allowed in. And again, it's not a big thing and pales next to what happens between the white lines. Pete Carroll let his players say and do most anything and they won a SB a few years ago.
Still, amusing. But I'm easily amused.
Ben Before Deflategate II:
11 Games, 25 TDs, 8 INTs, 99.4 QB Rating
Ben After Deflategate II:
5 Games, 6 TDs, 8 INTs, 79.9 QB Rating
Just sayin....
That is far more evidence that Ben cheated than they had against Brady. Suspend him forever
.
Talk about fun with stats. Moreno NEVER killed the Patriots. He had one good on paper game against us, because, due to turnovers, we went down 24-0, and they fed him the ball 37 times. And because of that, we came back and won that game. As for going back and watching, I actually just sat through six minutes of highlights of the game, and they didn't show a single Moreno carry. Because it was the emptiest 200+ yard game in league history.
In the other two games, he did nothing notable.
EDIT: I stand corrected. Noticed, he had a good game with MIA against us I didn't recall. I was counting the playoff game with Denver (14 carries for 59 yards.)
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5 y/r avg doesn't put him in the endzone like a blown coverage on Brown does. Yes Brady will have to be effective since they won't get three drives per quarter but I'd rather see more safties/DBs than LBs when Bell is on the field.
You didn't see any highlights and you missed the best game of his career against us. Maybe just delete the rest of the post and leave the bolded...
This isn't an either/or proposition. Scheming for Bell doesn't mean allowing Brown 200 yards and 2 TD's.
You beat the Patriots offense by holding onto the ball for 40 minutes. Bell is the key to making that happen.
Oh, I saw the game. I went back and looked at the highlights because that's what you asked us to do. He wasn't in any highlights because 159 of his yards came on non-scoring drives. It was a paper performance in a game his team lost.
NBC was showing the Pittsburgh oline double teaming the guards of KC and then having the KC linebackers swallowed up by the double team pushing back. With this, Bell could show the patience to find holes to fit through.
My question for those who know better, would it be better to have linebackers play deeper than normal so they don't get washed out by the double teams? Would this allow the LBs to react quicker and restrict Bell from being patient because the LB could force him to decide earlier than usual where he goes?
My question for those who know better, would it be better to have linebackers play deeper than normal so they don't get washed out by the double teams? Would this allow the LBs to react quicker and restrict Bell from being patient because the LB could force him to decide earlier than usual where he goes?
I'd have to see if KC's DL was playing 1-gap or 2-gap. To me it's on the front four to push the LOS back and not give Bell any holes to slither through. This is a big Alan Branch and Vince Valentine game. If they can hold their ground and not get pushed off the line it will be easier to take away cutbacks.
Jesus Christ. His team won the Miami/Pats game. If I knew this was your first time using a computer I wouldn't have engaged with you on this conversation.
Wasn't one of those Moreno games with Denver, in which the Patriots DARED Peyton to run the ball instead of passing? Doesn't mean the yards weren't real but it was practically the opposite of running against a stacked box, wasn't it?
Yep. And he did a good job of making them pay for it throughout the game. The game in Miami, however, was not the same game plan. And that was the one that stood out in my mind as far as his ability to be patient and look for the hole.
I suppose the two things that stand out in my memory are the Kansas City game two years ago that turned their season around, and the Miami game 3 years ago in week one. Maybe my memory is deceiving me, but I'm pretty confident that the patience demonstrated by the running backs in those games is what changed the entire flow of the games.
Some more rivalry data.
Within Brady era (note Ben begins in 2004):
Regular season: 9 - 3 Patriots
At Razor stadium: 4 - 1 Patriots (note: loss came w/o Brady in 2008 Cassel season)
At Ketchup field: 5 - 2 Patriots (note: win in 2016 came against Jones)
In Playoffs: 2 - 0 Patriots (both in Pittsburgh, first win against Kordell Stewart, both games AFCCG)
Not claiming it has any bearing on this game.
http://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/new-england-patriots/teamvsteam?opp=25
Within Brady era (note Ben begins in 2004):
Regular season: 9 - 3 Patriots
At Razor stadium: 4 - 1 Patriots (note: loss came w/o Brady in 2008 Cassel season)
At Ketchup field: 5 - 2 Patriots (note: win in 2016 came against Jones)
In Playoffs: 2 - 0 Patriots (both in Pittsburgh, first win against Kordell Stewart, both games AFCCG)
Not claiming it has any bearing on this game.
http://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/new-england-patriots/teamvsteam?opp=25
Bell helps with time of possession, but you get to 40 minutes from turnovers. The Steelers only dominated t.o.p. against weaker teams.
How about putting Chung into a hybrid role and keeping Harmon/an extra DB on the field? Blitz into the backfield with a DB to solve the "patience" problem. Roethlisberger blocking Ryan is a matchup I'd like to see.
The extra day to rest is pretty valuable especially at this time of year when everyone is banged up.
Except you know for the whole rest thing. Whatever I won't feel sorry for them... not one tear.
This Tomlin crying about the 1.5 days is a crock of shit if you ask me. If you're worried about that, then get the #1 seed and then you don't have to travel.
But it's not 1.5 days. Pats played at 830, too. It's 24 hours. Where the extra halfday came from is beyond me.
Travel time.
I mean, it's nonsense coach-speech, but that's where it's coming from.
Most likely he is trying to make his speech sound good postgame and make them feel that they have obstacles to overcome so they have to work hard. It's probably a bit much to expect him to remember the exact details in the immediate post game.
I suppose he could be counting half a day of travel. Or that he thinks the Pats played the early game.
I suppose he could be counting half a day of travel. Or that he thinks the Pats played the early game.
Has there been a peep out of GB about ATL having a 1 day head start on them? Wonder if their flight out of DAL was delayed due to the tornado warning that kept the fans in the stadium after the game.
Either way they aren't already making up excuses.
Either way they aren't already making up excuses.
To further KFP's points: if the Pats can bottle up Bell and create some 2nd and long, 3rd and longs, I think it makes it far easier to bottle up Brown, especially as the Steelers have little in the way of alternates to Brown.
We always hear about how BB takes away the opponents best weapon. Part of that is by making a team one-dimensional. One can argue whether Bell or Brown is the best weapon, but I think that if you eliminate Bell, you make it much easier to contain Brown. I don't think the opposite is true.
We always hear about how BB takes away the opponents best weapon. Part of that is by making a team one-dimensional. One can argue whether Bell or Brown is the best weapon, but I think that if you eliminate Bell, you make it much easier to contain Brown. I don't think the opposite is true.
The defensive gameplan - by order and relative magnitude of priority - is as follows:
1.) Contain Bell.
2.) Bracket Brown.
3.) Don't leave Elandon Roberts in man coverage on anybody.
1.) Contain Bell.
2.) Bracket Brown.
3.) Don't leave Elandon Roberts in man coverage on anybody.
Coaches say shit in locker rooms that doesn't really stand up to fact-checking. Tomlin didn't know his words were being recorded and broadcast over social media. It was a pretty stupid thing for Brown to do. We don't know what McCarthy might have said to his team. It didn't sound like excuse making so much as a motivational tactic (these guys have a head start on us, so we have to work even harder etc).
There's a quote that's generally attributed to Parcells (not sure if he's truly the originator) that says something like, "If you give players an excuse for losing, they'll take it every time." I find it hilarious that among the first things Tomlin does after a big playoff win is to scream, "We're at a disadvantage next week!"
I get that he's going for the underdog thing and it's really meaningless in the end, but it's such a strange approach. When we've heard Belichick in the past try to play the "us against the world" angle, it's usually around things people have said or people that have picked against the Patriots. He doesn't bring up actual disadvantages they might have.
I think this is exactly it. 2nd and 5, 3rd and shorts are the place you want to stay away from against all teams. One that can gash you run or pass like this especially. The last series the Steelers had the ball against KC illustrates their willingness to be unconventional. Making them conventional is so important.
It's not naive to think the Pats can score 30. It is naive to say you don't see any way Pitt can prevent them from scoring 30.
I imagine some of the shit coaches say after a big win is much worse and less intelligent than what Tomlin said. Brown is lucky - he could have said something that would have created a complete circus.
Love reading the analysis here, but there's one thing I'll never understand: the relevance (or total lack of relevance) about historical stats. Broadcasters do the same thing in baseball. The teams playing next weekend aren't even the same teams that played earlier this season, never mind whatever the fuck happened years ago with completely different personnel make-ups.
I thought the Miami week 1 game was also the same season as the KC game/super bowl win?
Could be right. My memory is scattered with football, booze, marketing, and weed. You're probably right.
I think there are a few reasons for this. One, broadcasters love a readymade context for the game, and 'WHEN THESE TEAMS MET IN WEEK 6' gives them that. Two, it also gives them a 'two-way' narrative to rip out of the back pocket at any time: if the team that lost the first game (especially in a blowout) wins, they'll hammer us with shit about how the team "studied that game" and "found itself over the last 2-3 months" and "talking with Coach Blowhard this week, it was really clear looking in his eyes that this was a different football team"; conversely, if the team that lost the first game loses again, you'll hear how "the script is the same" and "they don't have any answers for this [insert] attack" and "they thought coming into this game that they had the right approach, but..." Three, it's easy/comfortable to see a prior matchup as the most predictive data point because what the fuck are these weighted DVOA numbers and shit about how the return of Jim Player allows them to play cover 2 because man oh man can he cover the deep middle from the mike position.
Some folks even fill airtime by attacking the idea that the first matchup is predictive at all.
If I were more tech-savvy I would insert a clop from the "Do Your Job" video of Coach Goog saying "It [the game plan against Indy in the playoffs] wasn't generally the same plan; it was exactly the same."
Its a nothingburger and if we had something similar (as others have stated upthread, something like that would be very unlikely to happen with the Patriots) and it was getting similar coverage, I believe the royal SoSH "we" would be dismissive of it. Tomlin called the Patriots assholes in their locker room during a private speech. I suspect that isn't the first time the Patriots have been called names and I bet the language has been far more shocking from other opponents as well.
These pre-game BBTL threads seem always to explain why we should win and discount the ways we lose. And we win a lot so they are usually right. But I've learned there is a lot of rose colored analysis typically because we're fans and we look for the parts that reduce stress not add to it. I think we probably had a fair amount of analysis in the last several years about how we would win all the AFCCGs, but we have lost 3 of the last 4.
Pittsburgh is a really good team. They were the team I was most scared about in the AFC. It has been a QB's playoffs so far, and they have a really good one for whom the moment will not be too big or the lights too bright. Ben has won three straight championship games that he has been in, and is five out of his last six "huge" games, if you define huge as an AFCCG or Super Bowl. They have two fantastic skill players. Tomlinson is an asshole, but his team's don't get intimidated.
Our QB is better. I wish we had Gronk. If both teams play very well, the Patriots should win, but they will need to play one of their best games of the year to go through.
Pittsburgh is a really good team. They were the team I was most scared about in the AFC. It has been a QB's playoffs so far, and they have a really good one for whom the moment will not be too big or the lights too bright. Ben has won three straight championship games that he has been in, and is five out of his last six "huge" games, if you define huge as an AFCCG or Super Bowl. They have two fantastic skill players. Tomlinson is an asshole, but his team's don't get intimidated.
Our QB is better. I wish we had Gronk. If both teams play very well, the Patriots should win, but they will need to play one of their best games of the year to go through.
It's just coach speak. He wants them to get the siege mentality, then against the world. That may be the smallest exaggeration in post game speech history. I told my freshman boys basketball team the other of one of the kids on the opposing team said there was no way we could beat them twice in a row.
While I agree with the general sentiment, Ben's "big game" history is very overrated by wins/losses. He was pure awful in several of those six games and only really good in one of them.