This is going to be a fascinating matchup. The Chargers come to Foxboro having not lost on the road all season while the Patriots have not lost at home. By weighted DVOA, the Chargers are the #6 rated team(#2 offense, #19 defense, and #17 ST) and the Patriots are #8(#5 offense, #16 offense, #16 ST).
When Patriots have the ball
--I think we will see a run-heavy offense this week as the Pats have shown recently, but more of a power running game than the zone runs they tend to run. For the season, the Chargers rank 26th in the league in yards per carry against power plays(5.71) vs. 11th in the league vs. zone runs(3.71). Since Joey Bosa has been back, it's been even worse as they've given up 6.67 YPC against power runs. This is a team where the Patriots can take advantage of their success running the football as of late.
--Attack the Chargers LB's in the passing game with the RBs. The Chargers rank 23rd in DVOA against opposing RBs giving up almost 60 yards per game to that position group. Last year against the Chargers, Brady targeted the RBs 16 times. White had 5/85 and Burkhead had 7/68 to lead the team in receiving. The short passing game with the RB's hopefully will counter the Chargers' pass rush and get the ball out of Brady's hands quickly.
--I would not count on Rob Gronkowski having much of an impact in the passing game this week. The Chargers are the #1 team in the league in defensive DVOA vs TE's. If Gronk is going to have any success, it will have to come on play action seam throws where Derwin James gets sucked up the field.
--If the running game is a success early, I'm hoping to see Josh McDaniels bring in heavier formations and run tempo with them to keep the Chargers on the field with their base look. Don't be afraid to pass out of the heavy formations with chunk plays down the field. This is a good opportunity to line up in a 2 back set with an extra lineman and run screens to the strong side of the field and also sneak White or Burkhead out on wheel routes. The middle of the field will tend to be open with success with the run so play action routes to Edelman should be open. Interesting fact today: the Chargers used 7 DBs in 58 of 59 snaps. If that happens Sunday, run, run, run. They have to respect the passing game of the Pats as opposed to today.
--I would also like to see Patterson lined up in the backfield for a few plays and swing it out to him. If they can't handle RB's in the passing game, CP would be a load to deal with.
When Chargers have the ball
--I'm not sure how healthy Melvin Gordon is at this point. He had to leave the game today and did come back, but he's been dealing with a knee problem for a while. I don't think he's 100%. My concerns are with stopping their passing game.
--Phillip Rivers has a tendency to make mistakes when he's had to make quick decisions. My hope is that the Patriots deploy the "Amoeba" defense on passing downs, play man to man outside, and make Rivers guess where the rush is coming from and which guys will drop to the middle. Chances are he will throw a couple to the defense and the defense better capitalize where the Ravens couldn't today.
--Blitz Rivers a ton and turn the game into winning 1-on-1 battles against their receivers. I'm confident that Stephon Gilmore will win the vast majority of his. With the way JC Jackson and JMac have been playing, I'm confident in them too. It will force Rivers to check down to his TEs and RBs, so it is imperative that the LB's and safeties tackle in space.
Special Teams
--DO NOT KICK IT TO DESMOND KING. Kick everything out of the end zone or squib kick. I don't care. Just don't give King a chance to affect the game. The kick coverage has been terrible all year so don't give the best KR in the game anything.