AFC Playoff Watch: The Quest for the #1 seed
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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They are home to Titans, Browns, Colts the next 3 games.
Then @JETS and @ Eagles.
Finish at home against Jags (Don’t laugh)
Three of the 6 opponents have played their Super Bowl during 2018.
There is no sneaking up on teams at this stage. Maybe the Colts can do it on merit. Maybe the Eagles have something to play for in week 16.
Then @JETS and @ Eagles.
Finish at home against Jags (Don’t laugh)
Three of the 6 opponents have played their Super Bowl during 2018.
There is no sneaking up on teams at this stage. Maybe the Colts can do it on merit. Maybe the Eagles have something to play for in week 16.
It's an anything can happen league from week to week, but the Patriots are looking very good right now, they should run the table and finish 13-3, that should guarantee the #2 seed, if the Chefs slip up, maybe the #1, not sure where they'd stand vs the Chargers if they also run the table for the #1 seed.
I'm not worried about the Vikings or the Steelers, they should have lost last week to Jacksonville the same way they lost yesterday, an interception in the end zone.
And I have no idea how Miami blew that game yesterday, thought it was over at 24-14.
I'm not worried about the Vikings or the Steelers, they should have lost last week to Jacksonville the same way they lost yesterday, an interception in the end zone.
And I have no idea how Miami blew that game yesterday, thought it was over at 24-14.
For the Chargers to win the division after running the table, they need the Chiefs to lose at least 2 games (including vs. the Chargers). There's no way for the Chargers to win the tie-breaker at 13-3.
Patriots/Chargers at 13-3 would be tied on Conference record and common games. So you'd have to go to strength of victory. Right now, the Patriots have a commanding lead in that stat (assuming both teams win out, Patriots lead 71-68-3 to 59-81-2). To change that, you'd need some pretty stunning positive results for SF, OAK, CLE, TEN, SEA, AZ, CIN, BAL & DEN combined with negative results from HOU, MIA, IND, CHI, BUF, GB, NYJ & MIN).
Edit: For instance, if you do the NYT playoff scenario thing, have the Patriots, Chargers, Titans, Raiders and Broncos win out with the Chiefs, Dolphins & Bills losing out, the Patriots still have a 54% chance of the #1 seed.
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1. KC 9-2(at Oakland)
2. New England 8-3(vs. Minnesota)
3. Houston 7-3(vs. Tennessee, vs. Cleveland)
4. Pittsburgh 7-3-1(vs. LA Chargers)
5. LA Chargers 8-3(at Pittsburgh)
6. Baltimore 6-5(at Atlanta)
7. Indy 6-5(at Jacksonville)
8. Tennessee 5-5(at Houston, vs. Jets)
9. Miami 5-6(vs. Buffalo)
10. Cincinnati 5-6(vs. Denver)
11. Denver 5-6(at Cincinnati)
**If Houston wins tonight they stay in 3rd and Pittsburgh stays in 4th. If they lose, the two teams will flip flop.**
2. New England 8-3(vs. Minnesota)
3. Houston 7-3(vs. Tennessee, vs. Cleveland)
4. Pittsburgh 7-3-1(vs. LA Chargers)
5. LA Chargers 8-3(at Pittsburgh)
6. Baltimore 6-5(at Atlanta)
7. Indy 6-5(at Jacksonville)
8. Tennessee 5-5(at Houston, vs. Jets)
9. Miami 5-6(vs. Buffalo)
10. Cincinnati 5-6(vs. Denver)
11. Denver 5-6(at Cincinnati)
**If Houston wins tonight they stay in 3rd and Pittsburgh stays in 4th. If they lose, the two teams will flip flop.**
It's not wildly beyond reason for the AFC to finish with 5 teams with 4 losses or fewer, and then have the 6th seed be .500 or worse.
(EDIT: Because 5+1=6, not 8)
(EDIT: Because 5+1=6, not 8)
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I mean, you have those caveats in there but the following common games make that first part pretty hard:
- Chiefs/Chargers
- Pats/Steelers
- Chargers/Steelers
Those 5 teams can combine for 6 losses (laid out perfectly) to get each at 4 losses, and that's even cheating a little with the Steelers' tie - and 3 of those losses are guaranteed.
There's no way the Patriots (or any other team for that matter) should run the table with 5 games remaining. Losing one of @ MIA or @ PIT are strong possibilities.
Exactly
They are 8-3, and have won 72% of their games. They have 5 left against a similar spread of competition. 5*0.72 = 3.6 wins, which is about what I think they will do (lose one of the games, and one of the others will come down to a final possession where the game could go either way)
Football Outsiders seems to suggest 3-2. The most likely seed is #2 (41%), followed by #3 (25%), #4 (18%), #1 (14%), with a 3% chance of losing the division and 2% chance of missing the playoffs.
Most likely seeding (odds of that seed):
- KC (76%) - 16% #2, 8% no bye
- NE (41%)
- Hou (31%) - 24% bye, 19% #4, 15% Wild Card, 11% out of playoffs
- PIT (37%) - 23% bye, 27% #3, 5% Wild Card, 8% out of playoffs
- LAC (70%) - 5% bye, 83% wild card, 12% out of playoffs
- BAL (22%) - 11% Division, 31% Wild Card, 58% out of playoffs
- IND - 18% Division, 22% Wild Card, 60% out of playoffs
- DEN - 22% Wild Card, 78% out of playoffs
- TEN - 8% Division, 6% Wild Card, 86% out of playoffs
- MIA - 3% Division, 6% Wild Card, 92% out of playoffs
- CIN - 1% Division, 3% Wild Card, 95% out of playoffs
- CLE - 1% WC, 99% out
- BUF - 1% Div, 99% out
Edit: For Miami to win the division:
- They need to beat the Patriots, then perform 2 games better over the remaining 4 games (4-0 v 2-2, 3-1 v 1-3, 2-2 v 0-4) to tie. Obviously, if they perform 3 games better, they win the division.
- To win the tie-breaker, they would need the Patriots to lose more divisional games than Miami (Patriots have BUF/NYJ, MIA has BUF/BUF). This probably goes Miami's way - if Miami is 4-0, they only remain tied if the Patriots lose to both MIN & PIT. If Miami goes 3-1, they only remain tied if the Patriots lose to both MIN & PIT and MIA also loses to the Bills once. If Miami goes 2-2, they only remain tied if MIA loses to the Bills twice.
- If they match each other on this tiebreaker, then it goes to common games - performance against the NFCN and AFCS. Patriots are currently 4-3 with MIN remaining. Miami is currently 2-4 with MIN/JAX remaining - so Miami would need to win both of those and have the Patriots lose theirs to tie.
- Then it goes to Conference record. The Patriots are currently 2 games ahead on this front. The MIA def NE result would cut 1 game off. If the Patriots have lost a game in the standings via the MIN results (step 3, above), then the other game they lost in the standings (step 1, above) would necessarily be in-conference, meaning they're tied again.
- Strength of Victory. Miami's SOV is currently .389, New England's is .534. Without doing the math, I don't think there's a scenario where MIA catches NE.
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San Diego is a scary team right now imo; Rivers is playing at a really high level and they have a great WR group that are very difficult to defend in the red zone. If Melvin Gordon isn't too banged up, the duo of Gordon/Ekeler is arguably the best RB tandem in the league. They also have allowed the 5th fewest points in the league and just got Joey Bosa back. That is a beast of a #5 seed.
Maybe. On the other hand, they have had an extremely easy schedule so far (KC -lost, LAR - Lost, Den - Lost, beat Buf, SF, Oak, Cle, TEN, Sea, Oak, ARZ). So any time they have faced a playoff team they have lost. They have @ PIT, vs Cin, @ KC, vs Bal, @ Den left. They could easily finish 10-6 given that they are underdogs in two of those games and favored by less than 3 in two out of the other three games. That contingency about "if Melvin Gordon isn't too banged up" seems rather important given he may miss the rest of the regular season. So maybe they limp into the playoffs and end up playing @ Pit in the Wild Card round.
I do feel like there could be a path here where the 2nd seed is the preferred seed. If this finishes with:
KC
NE
HOU
PIT
LAC
BAL/IND/TEN
Round 2 could have the #2 seed hosting HOU instead of Pit or LAC. While none of those teams are particularly scary (at home especially), I'd lean towards facing Houston.
Maybe that makes #2 less bad than it usually is, but the difference in opponent doesn't beat the loss of home field advantage vs. the Chiefs (in my opinion).
Melvin Gordon is out for the season, so that argument is out. Eckler isn't bad though.
True. Sorry, I just meant from an opponent standpoint. Completely agree on home field if they advance to the AFCC again.
Maybe the Chiefs will actually win a playoff game this year for the first time since when 1993? Or they will lose to Pittsburgh or San Diego or Houston in the divisional.
Because I spent 5 minutes making it, I'm sharing it.
Only 11 data points, but there has been no correlation between NE's opponents' winning % and the differential in the final score when they play NE ( Pearson's r = 0.014 +/- 0.316). Bring on MIN and PGH!
Only 11 data points, but there has been no correlation between NE's opponents' winning % and the differential in the final score when they play NE ( Pearson's r = 0.014 +/- 0.316). Bring on MIN and PGH!
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Perusing the Pats W-L record this year, I noticed the following:
There are 2 other divisions they play in full this year--the AFC South and the NFC North. They've played 7 of those 8 games (MIN will be the 8th), and they've lost 3 of those. Those 3 losses come to the 3 weakest of those teams, both by record and by DVOA.
In other words, the Pats 3 losses have come from the 3 weakest out-of-division opponents they'll face this year.
That just seems weird to me.
There are 2 other divisions they play in full this year--the AFC South and the NFC North. They've played 7 of those 8 games (MIN will be the 8th), and they've lost 3 of those. Those 3 losses come to the 3 weakest of those teams, both by record and by DVOA.
In other words, the Pats 3 losses have come from the 3 weakest out-of-division opponents they'll face this year.
That just seems weird to me.
And flip side is they have played 3 likely division winners and have beaten all 3. I get that people are pissed they lost to crappy teams but would anyone feel better if they had lost to Houston, KC, and the Bears, but beaten Jacksonville, Detroit, and Tennessee? The narrative would be that they can’t beat good teams they only beat crappy teams.
No preference stated or implied by me, unless it would be to prefer that they won all their games. It's just that what I cited is weird and kind of un-Pats like.
Thinking back on the past several seasons, normally their losses are either in-division, or to fairly good teams, so this kind of sticks out.
EDIT: Checking 2015-2017 the only exception I find is their stupid home loss to the Eagles in 2015 when the Eagles sucked
Thinking back on the past several seasons, normally their losses are either in-division, or to fairly good teams, so this kind of sticks out.
EDIT: Checking 2015-2017 the only exception I find is their stupid home loss to the Eagles in 2015 when the Eagles sucked
Gordon should likely be back for the end of the regular season, definitely the playoffs.
Well, in hindsight, if you're gonna lose 3 games no matter what, I'd rather beat the teams like Houston and KC that could have tiebreaker ramifications.
Let's keep that going against Vikes. Should be a fun one.
This is great news. Since they're more likely to play good teams not bad teams when it's the playoffs.
The third-best team of the Brady/Belichick era, arguably even the second-best, had this exact dynamic: the 2010 Pats. They played and beat:
- Ravens (AFC WC)
- @SD (9-7)
- @PIT (12-4, AFCN Champs)
- Colts (10-6, AFCS Champs)
- @Bears (11-5, NFCN Champs)
- Packers (10-6, NFC WC)
...And split with the Jets, losing 14-28 in week 2 and winning 45-3 in December. Yet that Jets loss, and an inexplicable 20-point loss to the Colt McCoy Cleveland Browns, were their only losses on the regular season. Other than that, they faced 7 playoff teams and went 7-1, including beating every other AFC division champion, often soundly.
We know how that year turned out. Crazy shit happens in the small sample sizes of the NFL. Sometimes it's meaningful, sometimes it isn't.
What odds do we give the Chargers for passing the Chiefs? They're only a game back at 8-3 and have a head-to-head matchup in Week 15, a Thursday game in Arrowhead. They also have the second-best point differential in the conference, behind KC and ahead of the Pats.
They do have a tougher schedule down the stretch: @ PIT, v CIN, @ KC, v BAL, @ DEN. KC has @ OAK, v BAL, v LAC, @ SEA, vs OAK. So smart money is still with the Chiefs, but if they slip up a little they could miss out on the division.
They do have a tougher schedule down the stretch: @ PIT, v CIN, @ KC, v BAL, @ DEN. KC has @ OAK, v BAL, v LAC, @ SEA, vs OAK. So smart money is still with the Chiefs, but if they slip up a little they could miss out on the division.
They need the Chiefs to lose two division games to have a shot at any tie breaker scenarios.
Football Outsiders gives them a 5.5% chance, which sounds about right given that the Chargers basically need to do 2 games better than the Chiefs the rest of the way.
Chargers can't win the tiebreaker at 13-3.
At 12-4, the Chiefs would need to lose to the Chargers and one of their 2 games against the Raiders to lose a tie-breaker. Then it goes to common games (games vs. NFCW and AFCN). Chargers currently 4-1, Chiefs are 5-1. This tiebreaker will be a loss for the Chargers at this point - they will have lost to one of those opponents and the Chiefs hadn't, unless the Chiefs already won an earlier tiebreaker.
What are the odds of the Chiefs losing 3 out of 5 games - @OAK, vBAL, vLAC, @SEA, vOAK? Right. So for the Chargers to win the division, they need to run the table with the Chiefs losing one of the other games.
At 12-4, the Chiefs would need to lose to the Chargers and one of their 2 games against the Raiders to lose a tie-breaker. Then it goes to common games (games vs. NFCW and AFCN). Chargers currently 4-1, Chiefs are 5-1. This tiebreaker will be a loss for the Chargers at this point - they will have lost to one of those opponents and the Chiefs hadn't, unless the Chiefs already won an earlier tiebreaker.
What are the odds of the Chiefs losing 3 out of 5 games - @OAK, vBAL, vLAC, @SEA, vOAK? Right. So for the Chargers to win the division, they need to run the table with the Chiefs losing one of the other games.
And why not - tied at 11-5, the Chiefs would need to have lose all three of @OAK/vLAC/vOAK with the Chargers beating Denver & losing 2 other games for the Chargers to win the divisional tie-breaker. If they tie on divisional record (Chiefs lose @OAK/vLAC) then the Chiefs will win on common opponents.
week 13 is in the books for the AFC.
1. KC 10-2 (BAL, SD, @SEA, OAK)
2. New England 9-3 (@MIA, @PIT, BUF, NYJ)
3. Houston 9-3 (IND, @NYJ, @PHI, JAX)
4. Pittsburgh 7-4-1 (@OAK, NE, @NO, CIN)
5. LA Chargers 9-3 (CIN, @KC, BAL, @DEN)
6. Baltimore 7-5 (@KC, TB, @SD, CLE)
Indy 6-6 (@HOU, DAL, NYG, @TEN)
Tennessee 6-6 (JAX, @NYG, WAS, IND)
Miami 6-6 (NE, @MIN, JAX, @BUF)
Denver 6-6 (@SF, CLE, @OAK, SD)
taking CIN off the list as they're clearly done.
As far as the 7-10 spots, while Baltimore / PIT should defend their spots I can see any of them getting hot (Miami is probably the least likely but not ruling it out) and stealing a #6 spot.
1. KC 10-2 (BAL, SD, @SEA, OAK)
2. New England 9-3 (@MIA, @PIT, BUF, NYJ)
3. Houston 9-3 (IND, @NYJ, @PHI, JAX)
4. Pittsburgh 7-4-1 (@OAK, NE, @NO, CIN)
5. LA Chargers 9-3 (CIN, @KC, BAL, @DEN)
6. Baltimore 7-5 (@KC, TB, @SD, CLE)
Indy 6-6 (@HOU, DAL, NYG, @TEN)
Tennessee 6-6 (JAX, @NYG, WAS, IND)
Miami 6-6 (NE, @MIN, JAX, @BUF)
Denver 6-6 (@SF, CLE, @OAK, SD)
taking CIN off the list as they're clearly done.
As far as the 7-10 spots, while Baltimore / PIT should defend their spots I can see any of them getting hot (Miami is probably the least likely but not ruling it out) and stealing a #6 spot.
KC @ SEA now is looking like a tough game for the Chiefs, especially without Hunt. Hosting SD too.
Given the schedule, Houston has a real shot at a bye, as hard to believe as that may sound. NE must take care of business in Miami.
Given the schedule, Houston has a real shot at a bye, as hard to believe as that may sound. NE must take care of business in Miami.
SD, KC, HOU, and NE are all in the hunt for the bye (SD would have to win Division). Houston has the easiest schedule of the 4. This has the makings for a great horse race. None of the current 1-6 seeds in the AFC are soft. Even Baltimore has a good defense. Side note: has anyone seen Lamar Jackson this year - how did he look?
Well it certainly wasn't with his head, because he got his bell rung real good. They had RG3 in there today.