AFC Wild Card Matchup, #4 Bills host #5 Patriots

What's the line?

  • Bills-10

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bills-9

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bills-8

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bills-7

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bills-6

    Votes: 1 7.7%
  • Bills-5

    Votes: 1 7.7%
  • Bills-4

    Votes: 5 38.5%
  • Bills-3

    Votes: 2 15.4%
  • Bills-2

    Votes: 1 7.7%
  • Bills-1

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Even

    Votes: 2 15.4%
  • Bills+1

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bills+2

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bills+3

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bills+4

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bills+5

    Votes: 1 7.7%
  • Bills+6

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bills+7

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bills+8

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bills+9

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    13

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,720
Philadelphia
Another divisional grudge match!
 
Have at it.  If the two teams matching up could repost their PFF stats and their thoughts on the matchup to kick things off, that would be dandy.  I'm putting the poll up now (only 20 choices are possible, which is why it only goes up to +9) but people may want to wait to vote until a little discussion has occurred.  I'm making the voting public so that if something crazy happens we can see why.  Winner to be determined via powerball (see playoff proposal post).
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
9,087
Philly
Bills -3. This is a divisional matchup and both teams are fairly evenly matched.
 
Why no half points? These are two close teams. My guess? Bovada = Bills -2.5 and 5dimes = Bills -3.5. I'd be very comfortable teasing Pats +10.5 along with Browns +10.5.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

Member
SoSH Member
May 11, 2011
10,515
NH
On a neutral field I'd say my Pats have at least a FG advantage mainly due to the fact that I have an accurate kicker that can hit from 50+ and the Bills don't. Since home-field is worth 3 I'll put at as even.
 
Edit: This one's not public?
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
9,087
Philly
That's a rag-tag O-Line, Eck. But I don't think the Bills have the power up front to expose it. If there are two teams who are close in the same division the spread is usually 3 or under for the home team. Eck, I voted you guys winning the division, but there's no way in hell you get a pick 'em if you lost the division and are on the road. 
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

Member
SoSH Member
May 11, 2011
10,515
NH
SMU_Sox said:
That's a rag-tag O-Line, Eck. But I don't think the Bills have the power up front to expose it. If there are two teams who are close in the same division the spread is usually 3 or under for the home team. Eck, I voted you guys winning the division, but there's no way in hell you get a pick 'em if you lost the division and are on the road. 
 
I understand that's what happens usually, but in my eyes, the Bills started strong and faded while the Pats were one of the "hot" teams coming into the playoffs. 2005 Steelers?
 
Edit: Again, I don't know why this is the one poll that's not public. It feels like a setup. Who else voted Even?
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
9,087
Philly
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Because I forgot to check the box when making the post and its an aspect of the poll you can't edit.
You fucking asshole. This is a god forsaken conspiracy. NBA rigging I can live with. NFL fixing? Whatever. But putting the fix in the SoSH RFF? Go die. I thought this was America. I thought this was the land of freedom and opportunity. You've deprived us all of our freedom and liberty. Prepare for a revolution the size of which the world has never seen. MMS, you chose... poorly.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

Member
SoSH Member
May 11, 2011
10,515
NH
SMU_Sox said:
You fucking asshole. This is a god forsaken conspiracy. NBA rigging I can live with. NFL fixing? Whatever. But putting the fix in the SoSH RFF? Go die. I thought this was America. I thought this was the land of freedom and opportunity. You've deprived us all of our freedom and liberty. Prepare for a revolution the size of which the world has never seen. MMS, you chose... poorly.
 
:bravo:  That is some funny shit right there.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,720
Philadelphia
SMU_Sox said:
You fucking asshole. This is a god forsaken conspiracy. NBA rigging I can live with. NFL fixing? Whatever. But putting the fix in the SoSH RFF? Go die. I thought this was America. I thought this was the land of freedom and opportunity. You've deprived us all of our freedom and liberty. Prepare for a revolution the size of which the world has never seen. MMS, you chose... poorly.
Just wait until you see the "powerball" results.  You think that shit isn't rigged too?
 

soxfan121

JAG
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
23,043
I hate betting lines. That outlier? Me, fucking up. Meant Bills -5, not +5. I hate betting lines.
 

soxfan121

JAG
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
23,043
Super Nomario said:
Didn't you screw up your vote in the division forum, too? Maybe you just suck at voting.
 
Yep. I'm Nate Silver's worst nightmare.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,720
Philadelphia
I will keep the polls open until 2:00 EST today.  But here are the tentative powerball numbers.  11 votes cast, throwing out the highest and lowest votes leaves us an average of Bills-3. 
 
Patriots win on balls 1-24, Bills win on balls 25-59.
 
I'm changing the system somewhat so that the outcomes of the games are not so dependent on each other.  If all the games were decided by the first ball drawn in powerball (as originally planned), then a low number would mean all underdogs won and a high number would mean all favorites won.  Having the outcomes connected like that seems undesirable.  So instead each game will be decided by a different ball.
 
 This game will be decided by the third white ball drawn.
 
Note: A lot of powerball results sites will not list the winning numbers in the order drawn, but in ascending order.  Here is one that lists them correctly in the order drawn.
 
Edit: Voting now closed, one late vote came in but didnt change the Bills-3 line.