I think anything that slows the chiefs down is a bonus.Look at the state of the middle of the field after last week's game. Footing is going to be a major issue. One of the end zones is going to be brand new turf.
I've thought this too, but on the pessimistic side there's some question about the Pats' ability to defend receiving backs of even modest ability. We think of Kareem Hunt of this great receiving back, but his passing game numbers are just OK against non-Patriots teams; the two games against the Pats are the two highest receiving totals of his career (105 yards and 98; he only has one other game over 55) and account for almost 1/4 of his career receiving yards. We all remember what Corey Clement, in a similar system, did to the Pats in the Super Bowl - 100 yards, well over the 55 which is his second-best total. So while Williams doesn't present the same threat as Hunt on paper, I'm not going to be shocked if he racks up 80 yards in the air or something.While the loss of Kareem Hunt hasn't seemed to make that much of a difference in their running game, taking him out of the passing game - a nightmare matchup for High and most other LBs - is a pretty significant difference maker. Spencer Ware has some receiving ability and versatility but he's been hurt. Damien Williams is essentially a screen pass option and a block-then-leak-for-the-checkdown guy that isn't an open field threat. Assuming Ware is still out, they really don't have a RB that can run a lot of routes and present a matchup problem or that can cause havoc if receiving the ball in space. That really decreases my concerns about High. Whether Chung will be able to deal with Kelce is another issue.
Please explain.I cannot stand that stupid chop. I cringe, but 48 years of no sex makes me put up with some things.
This is the reason I fear this game. The Chiefs defense being much better at home could very well be a product of their easy schedule at Arrowhead, but the Pats defense has been trounced by some pretty middling (to be charitable) offenses on the road.The one stat that keeps me up at night. Patriots defensive DVOA 31st in the league on the road. Hard to ignore.
I’m in a peaceful place. If they can’t improve the above, they very likely are going to lose, and I’d be ok with that given the season and the fact that I have zero interest in watching them get housed in the Super Bowl.The one stat that keeps me up at night. Patriots defensive DVOA 31st in the league on the road. Hard to ignore.
Well, ok, metaphorically. Actually 49 years last week. I’ve been a Chiefs fan since January of 1970 when I watched SB IV as a wee lad. Since then i’ve seen kickers from Jan Stenerud to Nick Lowery to Lin Elliot miss FGs in excruciating ways. 2 home playoff wins in 47 years. Losses when QBs recovered fumbles off of linemen’s helmets, completing touchdown passes to themselves. And on and on. Maybe this time I’ll get lucky.Please explain.
Reading this, and reflecting on my impression of the Chiefs’ fan base and their quietly (at least by national standards) tortured fan base, it’s hard to muster up animosity.Well, ok, metaphorically. Actually 49 years last week. I’ve been a Chiefs fan since January of 1970 when I watched SB IV as a wee lad. Since then i’ve seen kickers from Jan Stenerud to Nick Lowery to Lin Elliot miss FGs in excruciating ways. 2 home playoff wins in 47 years. Losses when QBs recovered fumbles off of linemen’s helmets, completing touchdown passes to themselves. And on and on. Maybe this time I’ll get lucky.
It all depends on which Bill Belichick shows up. He can still out scheme the Anthony Lynn and Mike Tomlins of the world, as shown last week. But there have been some very ineffective game plans that have been written up in their last couple of playoff games, mainly the two Super Bowls (at least the first half of the Atlanta one).This is the reason I fear this game. The Chiefs defense being much better at home could very well be a product of their easy schedule at Arrowhead, but the Pats defense has been trounced by some pretty middling (to be charitable) offenses on the road.
Well, '01 Belichick was coaching in a different type of NFL.He’s the greatest coach of all time, but I don’t trust him to whip up some defensive masterpiece for Sunday. ‘01 Belichick would. Not sure about this current version.
Agree on Gronk. Win or lose, I want one more Gronk spike. We deserve it but, more importantly, he deserves it.It felt that way, didn't it? But by the drive list, I'm reminded that they had a 3-and-out punt to start the 2Q, and had a Duron Harmon interception (where else) in the end zone shortly thereafter. But yeah, they scored on their last 5 drives.
Gronk: 9 catches on 15 targets for 116 yds and 2 TDs. What I wouldn't give to see that line again on sunday.
Yeah, and winds don’t look to be a factor. It’s looking more and more like a typical outdoor game in January - chilly but nothing that will alter game plans or execution. If anything I’d be more concerned about footing on the natural grass since they use that hydronic heating system that can make things muddy/slippery.weather.com is now saying mid 20s.
A lot more speed at WR and TE. They did a great job on Kelce in 1st matchup 9/5/60 0 TDs but Hill and Hunt went crazy (combined 300yds 4 TDs). I think they can allow one skill player a big day but doubt they win if 2 go for over 120yds against again.This is a different offense than LA. Lot more speed at WR position. I'm not a big proponent of cover 0 in this game.
I do expect they will mix it up quite a bit. Try and make Mahomes think out there.
He can probably still cover Gronk and provide run support but that is about it.One quibble: why would anyone think Berry will be effective?
What's awesome is there's also a post in this thread wondering why everyone is so confident.I shouldn't be surprised, but the fear in this thread is palpable.
Ha! To my point though, that was on Monday. As always, there is some behavioral element and the fear kicks in as the days approach the game.
For the record, I have assumed we’re going to get beaten handily since about 10 minutes left in the Chargers game. When Tom Brady talks about how everyone doubted them, he’s pretty much talking directly to me. But I always feel that way so I may not count as a valid member of this psychological sample.Ha! To my point though, that was on Monday. As always, there is some behavioral element and the fear kicks in as the days approach the game.
Since that's my post I'll respond: I think this year's Pats team isn't as good as past year's teams going back to 2014, the record bears that out, they've been bad on the road all season long even into December when they are typically nails, and they are playing a very good team in a very tough place to play. Winning conference championship games on the road is hard, so I'm trying to be realistic about how I feel about their chances. I had no doubt that they were going to win the last two AFC Title games they played in. This year I have some doubt. Obviously I hope I am wrong.Ha! To my point though, that was on Monday. As always, there is some behavioral element and the fear kicks in as the days approach the game.
I hadn't thought of this and that would be awesome.[snip]
I also think we get a Rams - Patriots super bowl as the perfect bookend to the Patriots Dynasty.
Funny thing is I don't think anyone thought this around mid-season. Pats were rolling into the Tennessee game, NO and LA were both undefeated till their matchup, etc. All four teams had some second half struggles, but pretty much everyone thought this would be the final 4, no? To be they have proved they are better than everyone else.Is it weird that I feel like this is a down year as far as how good all the top teams in the NFL are? I feel like last year's Patriots and Eagles were better than any of the 4 remaining teams. Ditto the Falcons and Patriots from the previous year.
Looking at KC's schedule, they went 3-4 against teams above .500. (Wins over LAC, Pittsburgh and and Baltimore and losses to NE, LAC, LAR and Seattle). Their two wins were the first two weeks of the season, and they really should have lost that Baltimore game. They finished the season 3-3, with said Baltimore win plus two wins over Oakland. The Patriots went 5-2 against teams above .500 with losses to the Titans and Steelers, and then had the disastrous games against Detroit, Jacksonville and Miami. I think the Patriots should probably be favored by a point or two in a neutral field game, and given the game is in KC the line should probably be KC -1 or -1.5.
Interesting parallel with the NFC game. LA and KC were both undefeated until they faced their opponent for this weekend's matchup.
Also, I think some of this is hindsight bias because the Patriots and Eagles offenses looked so good in last year's Super Bowl.Funny thing is I don't think anyone thought this around mid-season. Pats were rolling into the Tennessee game, NO and LA were both undefeated till their matchup, etc. All four teams had some second half struggles, but pretty much everyone thought this would be the final 4, no? To be they have proved they are better than everyone else.
It's funny that those numbers appear to me to be...kind of warm. I mean, it's gonna be like 19 degrees during the game. That's incredibly cold. But I think it won't be cold enough to be much of a factor.NWS forecast for KC on Sunday now say a high of 23 and low of 19.
Having Justin Houston back will help immensely. They now have three excellent pass rushers who all seem to be perfectly healthy: Houston, Jones, and Ford. That's a lot for NE to deal with. If I'm KC, I send them all and play tight press man and force NE to have to block exceptionally well and throw over the top. But do so with Hogan and Edelman and Dorsett - not exactly Randy Moss level threats.They were 7-1 at home. There was a one point loss to SD and a three point OT win v Baltimore. My guess is the other 6 games were probably put to bed by halftime.
If I’m a KC fan, I am probably happy with those splits. Get a lead, run the football, rush the passer.
KC will be all over the short stuff. This is the game where Gordon's absence might really be felt. Or maybe we'll get one last vintage Gronk game with a few Dorsett/Hogan bombs sprinkled in.Having Justin Houston back will help immensely. They now have three excellent pass rushers who all seem to be perfectly healthy: Houston, Jones, and Ford. That's a lot for NE to deal with. If I'm KC, I send them all and play tight press man and force NE to have to block exceptionally well and throw over the top. But do so with Hogan and Edelman and Dorsett - not exactly Randy Moss level threats.
I think this could be a problem for the Patriots.
So I try to offset it with quick slants and screens to White and, of course, pounding the ball all day long.
Right. I don't know why the Patriots wouldn't do this? Same philosophy as towards the Chargers. It's really hard to stop an offense that can get good runs and gets the ball out fast. Given how bad KC is against the run, and I don't see a reason why we'd expect they are all of a sudden going to be good, this would seem to be the goal.So I try to offset it with quick slants and screens to White and, of course, pounding the ball all day long.