You have LeBron over Anthony Davis? Have you watched the Lakers this year at all?
1. It's my All-NBA predictions list. I purposely put TOP15 because it's positionless.
sorry, I thought you were doing a prediction of all NBA which is different from ranking the best players right now.
Curry is maybe the greatest latent impact player in NBA history (ie affects the game outside the box score stats). do you have any numbers to back the assertion that Mitchell is playing better? it might make a better conversation than making these pronouncements straight out.
I wasn't going for an predictions of ALL NBA here, just who is your ALL NBA team. There is no chance LeBron isn't getting the votes. ESPN would literally fire any writers that keep him off without prior approval to be yelled at by the other hosts (Perk I am looking at you). There isn't a chance the media would vote in Chet or DeRozan. I put DeRozan because for me a dude leading the league in minutes and putting up that kind of season on that shit a team is more impressive than LeBron crying about playing on a struggling play in team HE created. Chicago without DeRozan is in the basement with the Wizards and Detroit. The Lakers without LeBron falls behind the Rockets
See this is where you lose people. Your bitching about Lebron has completely tainted your view. Derozan is nowhere near deserving. Have you thought that perhaps part of the reason why Chicago is a shit team is because of Derozan? He is having one of his least efficient shooting seasons, and his team is still better with him off the floor
If we're calling out who deserves to get picked (as opposed to who the voters might choose), I'd definitely pick all 5 starters over DeRozan. DeRozan deserves some credit for leading the league in both minutes and minutes per game at age 34 while still looking reasonably productive for a mediocre team, but he's not getting even an honorable mention in any all-NBA list, nor should he. The Ringer's recent ranking has him 57th best in the league right now, even that feels somewhat optimistic to me (all 5 Celtics starters were in the top 50).
I think my main DeRozan argument is Chicago without DeRozan is in the running for the First Pick with the Wizards and Pistons. He is probably worth a 25-35 game swing for the Bulls. I can't think of another player like that in the NBA besides Jokic, Giannis. and maybe Luka or Davis. Everyone else plays with reasonable enough cast where could at at least float in the 10-20 range.
You're operating under the assumption that Derozan is a very large net positive for the Bulls, despite the fact that they do much better with him on the bench (+1.2 points per 100) than with him on the court (-2.0 points per 100). 3.2 points per 100 is basically the difference this year's Magic (+0.8 per 100) and this year's Nets (-2.3 per 100). As noted above by Danny, this is hardly an unusual thing for him - his teams nearly always do better when he doesn't play. Compare this to the Lakers with Lebron - they fare far better with him on the court (+1.7 per 100) than on the bench (-3.8). The fact that his teammates are pretty mediocre should really help DeRozan in this regard, but he still can't pull off a positive net rating (someone like Jaylen struggles here, because when he's on the bench Tatum is usually in the game and Tatum has JB beat by a wide margin).
Chicago is on a 39 win pace this year. I find it highly improbable that without Derozan they are somewhere between a 4 and 14 win team
There’s absolutely zero chance Derozan is worth 25-35 games for the Bulls. Debatable if any player in history has been worth that (likely not). Largest single season improvement for a team is in that range—but it’s more than one guy, and guys a lot better than DeRozan
if you had three of him you’d win more games than you played!
Win shares attempts to measure this, but it's not the best. If we go by that, one player for one season in history has been worth 25-35 wins, barely: Kareem had 25.37 win shares in 1972 Bucks.
That is not how it works. Also a 25 Win Share would only statistically a team would have 8 game shift (a win share is a third of team win on an average team). However on a shitty team, Win Shares have more of an effect on the overall team when you remove the player then a good team. Generally bad teams don't have players to fill the gap left by the player as well as the player represents a larger piece of their production.
Just like top ten LeBron is going to help the Lakers to a smooth 45 win season. PLAY IN FEVER WHERE THE LEGENDS LIVE.
Lebron already raised his Banner this season
you’re misunderstanding win shares—they have to allocate “wins” across the players for a team so it’s easier, not harder, to accumulate them on a team with few good players.
yes—thanks and that’s what I’m saying: whether you look at win shares, team record improvement YoY, or other analytics it’s massively hard to get to a single guy impacting 25-35 wins with any credibility - it’s Perk-level analysis (e.g. just made up)
Doesn’t mean you are trolling just means you are wrong
Actually that’s a pretty good list. LeBron > Sabonis and Harden > Fox would be my initial changes along with another that most won’t agree with but too much shit started here already lol.
Oh man, I don't want to go fall into the HRB hole here, but there is no way LeBron is rated higher than Sabonis this year. That makes me think you are not watching the games or looking at any stats, or whatever else I've been accused of doing. Sabonis is a Top 5/Top 10 player by pretty much every advanced metric and ahead of LeBron in all of them.
He is definitely going to get voted in.
I’d love to have a look at the Top-5 lists that Sabonis is a part of. I rate his defense alone to where almost any offense he provides doesn’t get him into my Top-25.
Bullshit. Sabonis is higher in VORP, BPM, DBPM, WS/48, WS, DWS, OWS, PER and TS%. He's also played the fourth most minutes in the NBA. His team is currently ahead of the Lakers in the standings, with a worse surrounding cast.
I mean, VORP is literally just BPM win shares. TS is strictly an efficiency stat, bball reference win shares are all just part of the same thing, and PER is not something people use anymore, it’s considered the worst advanced stat there is.
So, all my stats are just amalgamations of the same thing, while you use DPM, EPM and RAPM? This is not a serious conversation anymore.
the statistics you cite here were thought of as good assessments of NBA player skill circa 2000. rohrshach went into why they aren't great all in one numbers.
no, your stats are generally considered to be vastly inferior all in one assessments of player impact.
You’re using advanced stats that are universally considered dated, and much worse than the more highly regarded ones.
Eh, the math doesn't add up.
on/off is a great way to think about it! while you're at it, let's try to control for their teammates and their opponents. hey, we just re created RPM/RAPM/RPM oopsy.
You keep saying things like this. He is not 2nd fiddle on the Lakers.
Yeah, I've kind of lost the thread here as to why LeBron isn't a top 15 player anymore but I believe the initial argument was that he only played great defense when he was focused and locked in (which is a fair criticism)...but at least he can do it when he tries. Sabonis is an ass awful defensive player (slow feet, can't rebound) all of the time.
Yeah, this is wild - Sabonis is such a massive liability. He plays the most important defensive position and is bad at nearly all aspects of it outside of rebounding. Simply having him on your team restricts everything you do on a basketball court. If we’re disregarding positions, it’s even more strange to prefer him over Lebron because of positional scarcity.
He is wanting to more and more. Advanced stats do not take in account lack of defensive effort on an individudals. They measure the defensive output of the team when a player is on the court and when he is not. The idea is effort should be fairly consistent that is not event dependent say like a 39 YO player not feeling it. When slamminsammya is running around feeling super embolden by RPM numbers as end all be all my question is why does the advanced stats not match up to the team record. Why is the team performing better when LeBron doesn't play at all? If you want say small size, LeBron typically sits out against better opponents on the back end of road trips back to backs. If anything the Lakers should be a lot worse when LeBron is out instead of the 4-3 with a positive net rating they are.
I am sorry but if you think LeBron is having a better season than Anthony Davis it is really hard to take you seriously. Minutes screamed about by Stephen A Smith what stat or metric is LeBron beating Anthony Davis out in?
