Amendola's Role Going Forward

[soxfan121]

First, Schofield broke down the key play in the Giants win: Amendola's catch-and-run to get them into Gostkowski range. You should read it - and other ITP stuff - if you'd like to see Schofield, Archibald, Zodda, and the other ITP writers get press access in the future. Your daily clicks and visits help move toward that goal.

Second, with Edelman out, Amendola gets a much larger role in the offense going forward - or does he? Some have argued Scott Chandler figures to get more targets, or Brandon LaFell...but the ball has to go to someone other than Gronkowski.

Do you have faith in Danny?

 

[Koufax]

Hell yes. He's not quite as quick or shifty as Edelman, but he's a very competent and reliable slot receiver. So yes, I have faith in Danny (and have given ITP its clicks).

 

[dbn]

First, Schofield broke down the key play in the Giants win: Amendola's catch-and-run to get them into Gostkowski range. You should read it - and other ITP stuff - if you'd like to see Schofield, Archibald, Zodda, and the other ITP writers get press access in the future. Your daily clicks and visits help move toward that goal.

Second, with Edelman out, Amendola gets a much larger role in the offense going forward - or does he? Some have argued Scott Chandler figures to get more targets, or Brandon LaFell...but the ball has to go to someone other than Gronkowski.

Do you have faith in Danny?

I do; largely for what Mark points out in the linked-to piece, his ability to gain yards after the catch. Also, I'm data-ly ignorant but anecdotally impressed in his ability to run routes and get open, and it seems that he and Brady are starting to click.

Losing JE sucks, but having DA helps soften the blow, IMO.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

I think he needs to come off kick-off and punt return duty, given how important he has become with Lewis and Edelman sidelined.

 

[Stitch01]

He's clearly going to have a much larger role, more interesting question to me is who steps up besides Amendola. Edelman and Lewis had like 35% of the market share of the offense, Amendola cant take that all himself.

 

[Silverdude2167]

I think he needs to come off kick-off and punt return duty, given how important he has become with Lewis and Edelman sidelined.

I agree, but who returns puts now? It was JE, then him, who is third on the depth chart?

 

[Ferm Sheller]

I gave my recently gave my notice at my job of the past seven years. Spent half the day today at Whiskey's. I think that should be Amendola's role going into the playoffs.

 

[j44thor]

According to Brady, Edelman and Dola have different roles in the offense and are different players. Brady hinted that Martin will have a bigger role when he gets healthy. Doesn't sound like they are really expecting Dola to take the Edelman role. More likely they evolve the offense to play to the strengths of the remaining healthy bodies with a keen focus on the weaknesses of the upcoming opponent.

edit: What might be more interesting is what Brady didn't say in that interview, nothing about Dobson or Chandler. I don't think they will be picking up the slack left by Jules. Confidence appears to be low in those two.

 

[IdiotKicker]

I agree, but who returns puts now? It was JE, then him, who is third on the depth chart?

Haven't seen his hands in the role so don't know if they hold up, but James White has a pretty good skillset for that position if the hands check out.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Hell yes. He's not quite as quick or shifty as Edelman, but he's a very competent and reliable slot receiver. So yes, I have faith in Danny (and have given ITP its clicks).

What worries me with a larger role, it's not how competent or reliable he is but his injury history. He was fine last year in a much more limited role but 2013 that groin injury lasted all season:

SEASON LEAGUE INJURY ANALYSIS
2013 NFL Groin Amendola pulled his groin first game of the year and is set to miss a few games
2013 NFL Head Amendola got hit on an end around and looked like he was unconscious before he hit the ground. The knock caused him to exit the game and miss the following one
2012 NFL Upper arm Fractured his collarbone on a diving catch. Did not return and missed 1 game after
2012 NFL Foot Sprained ligaments in foot and missed a game
2012 NFL Foot Aggravated foot sprain and missed further 2 games
2011 NFL Upper arm Tore tricep and put on IR missing 15 games in the 2011 season
2009 NFL Head Concussed and missed 2 games

http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/injury-predictor/player/9037

 

[Koufax]

He's a tough buzzard if he missed only one game because of a fractured collarbone.

Perhaps we need to look at the half-full glass. Amendola is an acceptable substitute for Edleman while Edelman recovers. He needs to last for 7 more games. Then the playoffs begin, Edelman comes back and he can replace the then- (and if-) injured Amendola.

Sure I'd rather have them both, but their skill sets are similar so it's not too painful to have them in series rather than in parallel.

 

[jablo1312]

Most likely need to integrate Martin into the offense more. He's shown flashes, and I have much more faith in him developing into an even semi-reliable contributor than Dobson at this point. Amendola will be on the field more- he hit 70% of snaps the offensive snaps played against the Giants, his 2nd highest number this season.. I'd bet that # was closer to 85-90% on plays after Edelman went out.

I don't think it's reasonable to expect Amendola to pick up the Edelman slack for a number of reasons (mainly that they don't play the same exact position) but I can't imagine a scenario in which he doesn't see an uptick in targets through the end of the regular season. A real key for the offense as a whole moving forward will be getting Vollmer and Cannon healthy and playing (fingers crossed?) to help Brady feel more comfortable in the pocket and allow more true skill guys to run routes instead of keeping Gronk into block or putting Michael Williams out there for over half of the snaps when it seems the team havs no interest in running any offensive action for him. I guess part of this is that it's also time for Chandler to step up and start contributing the way many expected him to when he was brought in. It'll be interesting to see how much the coaching staff and Brady trust him moving forward, as well; he only saw the field for 30% of snap against the Giants.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

Haven't seen his hands in the role so don't know if they hold up, but James White has a pretty good skillset for that position if the hands check out.

Either him or bolden I'm guessing. Anything that keeps Bolden off the field during offensive snaps is a bonus. I said to my brother yesterday as Bolden lined up next to Brady, nothing good ever comes of him playing offense, and boom, Brady throws a pick.

 

[Norm Siebern]

Amendola will now be one of the featured players in the 2016 NFL Network's "America's Game."

 

[BaseballJones]

I think a healthy Amendola can give the Pats 90+% of what Edelman did. Brady clearly shows a lot of trust in him now. The question is who will step up and give the Pats what Amendola did in his pre-Edelman-injury role.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

I think you're underrating Edelman or overrating Amendola if you think 90+%.

I loved Amendola when he got here and he did great things down the stretch but he's not Edelman.

Edelman was on pace for about 120 receptions this year, which would nearly equal the total of Amendola's last 3 years combined.

 

[BaseballJones]

I think you're underrating Edelman or overrating Amendola if you think 90+%.

I loved Amendola when he got here and he did great things down the stretch but he's not Edelman.

Edelman is better, and I wouldn't - and didn't - suggest otherwise. But a healthy Amendola is a terrific wide receiver.

In his Pats' career, he has 121 rec on 173 targets (69.9%), for 1236 yds (10.2 avg), 5 td (24.2 rec per TD).

Edelman in the same 3-year span has 258 rec on 373 targets (69.2%), for 2720 yds (10.5 avg), 17 td (15.2 rec per TD). The rate stats are pretty darned similar, but obviously Edelman has gotten a lot more targets.

Recall when Amendola first arrived, in his very first game as a Patriot, he caught 10 passes on 14 targets (71.4%), for 104 yards (10.4 avg). In that same game, Edelman had 7 receptions on 9 targets (77.8%), for 79 yards (11.3 avg). In that game, Amendola got hurt and missed the next three games, and Edelman emerged as a star and Brady's go-to guy.

In this week's game, when Edelman was in the game, here were the numbers:

Edelman: 5 targets, 4 receptions (80.0%), 53 yards (13.3 avg), 3 first downs
Amendola: 4 targets, 3 receptions (75.0%), 19 yards (6.3 avg), 1 first down

And then when Edelman went out, here's what Amendola did:

Amendola: 7 targets, 7 receptions (100.0%), 60 yards (8.6 avg), 2 first downs

And, of course, Amendola had the enormous punt return and was very solid in the return game all day long.

I guess I just don't see why Amendola, if he remains healthy, can't come close to replicating what Edelman gave the Pats.

 

[leetinsley38]

Edelman is better, and I wouldn't - and didn't - suggest otherwise. But a healthy Amendola is a terrific wide receiver.

In his Pats' career, he has 121 rec on 173 targets (69.9%), for 1236 yds (10.2 avg), 5 td (24.2 rec per TD).

Edelman in the same 3-year span has 258 rec on 373 targets (69.2%), for 2720 yds (10.5 avg), 17 td (15.2 rec per TD). The rate stats are pretty darned similar, but obviously Edelman has gotten a lot more targets.

Recall when Amendola first arrived, in his very first game as a Patriot, he caught 10 passes on 14 targets (71.4%), for 104 yards (10.4 avg). In that same game, Edelman had 7 receptions on 9 targets (77.8%), for 79 yards (11.3 avg). In that game, Amendola got hurt and missed the next three games, and Edelman emerged as a star and Brady's go-to guy.

In this week's game, when Edelman was in the game, here were the numbers:

Edelman: 5 targets, 4 receptions (80.0%), 53 yards (13.3 avg), 3 first downs
Amendola: 4 targets, 3 receptions (75.0%), 19 yards (6.3 avg), 1 first down

And then when Edelman went out, here's what Amendola did:

Amendola: 7 targets, 7 receptions (100.0%), 60 yards (8.6 avg), 2 first downs

And, of course, Amendola had the enormous punt return and was very solid in the return game all day long.

I guess I just don't see why Amendola, if he remains healthy, can't come close to replicating what Edelman gave the Pats.

Are you missing the part where we had both Edelman and Amendola? Even if Amendola 100% fills in for Edelman, someone else would have to replace Amendola's previous stellar (as you point out) contributions.

 

[BaseballJones]

Are you missing the part where we had both Edelman and Amendola? Even if Amendola 100% fills in for Edelman, someone else would have to replace Amendola's previous stellar (as you point out) contributions.

I purposefully left that out because the point is that both players are NOT here now. And there is only one football to go around, and Brady clearly prefers Edelman (in part because he's better than Amendola). But when Edelman isn't there, Amendola really does appear to be able to almost - not quite, but almost - replicate Edelman's production, presuming Amendola is healthy.

Who will take Amendola's place? That's the issue.

 

[BaseballJones]

Just to remind us what Amendola is capable of...

 

[IdiotKicker]

Because they don't have the same role in the offense.

 

[Reverend]

I purposefully left that out because the point is that both players are NOT here now. And there is only one football to go around, and Brady clearly prefers Edelman (in part because he's better than Amendola). But when Edelman isn't there, Amendola really does appear to be able to almost - not quite, but almost - replicate Edelman's production, presuming Amendola is healthy.

Who will take Amendola's place? That's the issue.

So all of this, purposefully, ignores the most important consideration with respect to the Edelman injury in terms of overall offensive production and winning games?

I just... I don't...

 

[BaseballJones]

So all of this, purposefully, ignores the most important consideration with respect to the Edelman injury in terms of overall offensive production and winning games?

I just... I don't...

What?

It takes into consideration the fact that Edelman is not here now, and the question is, can Amendola come anywhere close to replicating what Edelman was able to do? To do that, I look at what Amendola has been able to do when he was a primary target of Brady. Which makes sense to me. We aren't considering whether Amendola can put up Edelman's numbers WHEN BOTH PLAYERS ARE PLAYING, because that's not the case now.

I don't understand why you are reacting this way.

EDIT: I'm trying to get a sense of how the Patriots might operate with Edelman out, not with him in. Because, after all, THAT is the situation now facing the Patriots. So we have just a few examples.

Amendola's numbers with Edelman out:

2014, game 15, at NYJ: 11 targets, 8 rec (72.7%), 63 yds (7.9 avg)
2014, game 16, vs Buf: 7 targets, 4 rec (57.1%), 24 yds (6.0 avg) - but this was the game the Pats played all the backups, so not very helpful
2015, game 9, at NYG: 7 targets, 7 rec (100.0%), 60 yds (8.6 avg) - after Edelman got hurt, these numbers are over the final 3 quarters of the game

Using the first and third of those games (because that's when Brady was playing), we see that over 4 quarters, Amendola's numbers pro-rate to: 10.2 targets, 8.6 rec, 71.5 yds. Edelman's per-game (4 quarter) average over the past 3 seasons: 9.8 targets, 6.7 rec, 71.1 yds.

Obviously I am not going to go through every game play by play and just pick the individual plays where Edelman was taking a breather and Amendola was on the field. The point is that if Edelman is out, and Amendola is playing, he tends to get a lot of targets, and his overall production pretty closely mimics Edelman's.

That's all I've been trying to say.

 

[IdiotKicker]

Because post #17 discusses how Amendola's stats are similar, while not mentioning that he is potentially seeing less coverage during that time due to Edelman's presence, and also not factoring in the role the two players play in the offense. The question is not "Does Amendola's production appear to match what Edelman can do?" The question is "Can Amendola fill the role in the offense that Edelman does while seeing similar levels of attention?"

Edit: It's not to say that he can't do it. It's just that it's not really a complete comparison the way you're going through it. Football isn't just numbers. The lack of true independent events in football means you have to look beyond the pure stats, because they are a reflection of other things happening on the same play in many instances.

 

[BaseballJones]

Because post #17 discusses how Amendola's stats are similar, while not mentioning that he is potentially seeing less coverage during that time due to Edelman's presence, and also not factoring in the role the two players play in the offense. The question is not "Does Amendola's production appear to match what Edelman can do?" The question is "Can Amendola fill the role in the offense that Edelman does while seeing similar levels of attention?"

Edit: It's not to say that he can't do it. It's just that it's not really a complete comparison the way you're going through it. Football isn't just numbers. The lack of true independent events in football means you have to look beyond the pure stats, because they are a reflection of other things happening on the same play in many instances.

I think you are demonstrating my point. If I compared their numbers when they're both playing, then we could make the case that Amendola's numbers are skewed because Edelman is seeing better, tighter coverage, leaving Amendola on a lesser defender. And thus those numbers might not be a good measuring stick for the reality that Edelman isn't playing now. Which is why I'm trying to use numbers from when Edelman was OUT, leaving Amendola with presumably a better defender on him, playing in Edelman's role. I'm trying to find past game situations that will more closely mimic what we will see over the next 7 games. In order to do that, we have to look at numbers when Edelman is NOT playing, not when he IS.

Make sense?

 

[Reverend]

Brady said they don't play the same role in the offense.

This isn't baseball.

 

[BaseballJones]

Brady said they don't play the same role in the offense.

This isn't baseball.

They don't have to play the same role. Soxfan121 asked if, with Edelman out, Amendola's role expands or not. Not whether he moves into Edelman's exact position.

When Edelman is out, and Amendola is in, Amendola tends to get a lot more targets, and his production tends to mimic Edelman's. And so, to answer the question posed in the OP, yes, Amendola's role expands, and his production grows with it.

That's all I've been saying.

I could have just said that, but then someone would tell me to make my case instead of just stating my opinion, so I decided to use what I deemed to be relevant data to, you know, make my case.

 

[EricFeczko]

They don't have to play the same role. Soxfan121 asked if, with Edelman out, Amendola's role expands or not. Not whether he moves into Edelman's exact position.

When Edelman is out, and Amendola is in, Amendola tends to get a lot more targets, and his production tends to mimic Edelman's. And so, to answer the question posed in the OP, yes, Amendola's role expands, and his production grows with it.

That's all I've been saying.

I could have just said that, but then someone would tell me to make my case instead of just stating my opinion, so I decided to use what I deemed to be relevant data to, you know, make my case.

If we're talking about relevant data. You need to ask the question whether you even have enough data for it to be relevant. Two, cherry-picked, games (let alone we're talking about a team that changes its offense week-to-week) does not give you enough data to determine whether those measures (e.g. targets, YPC, etc.) are sustainable or not. Furthermore, you need to compare those numbers to control conditions. The fact that he played well does not demonstrate that his role was increased or decreased; identifying such a control is really difficult with a constantly-shifting offense.

Which is why I'm trying to use numbers from when Edelman was OUT, leaving Amendola with presumably a better defender on him, playing in Edelman's role.
Make sense?

As both Belichick and McDaniels have stated, Danny Amendola does not do the same things on offense as Edelman. Amendola's role will expand, but he will not be playing in Edelman's role.

 

[lexrageorge]

Seems like there some confusion as what is meant by "role". If you mean primary receiving target not named Gronk, that probably will be Amendola.

In terms of taking Edelman's place in every play in the playbook, that will not be Amendola. And as McDaniels has said, it would not be fair to expect that of any player.