Analysis of Celtics Games, '21-'22 Season

[benhogan]

I think "let's stick with what is obviously not working because a different approach like 'passing to an open man' will probably be worse" is not the right approach. In a final seconds situation, OK, but over a final 3-4 minutes? Misguided. It not the end of the world to sometimes trust Payton Pritchard to stick a wide open corner three in a key late game situation, even if you don't want to do it for a final shot. (Although PP did hit a gamewinner last year I think).

I'm a huge JAYs fan, and they are the path to Celtic Salvation. BUT I suspect the JAYs believe their turnaround fadeaways & long 2s are higher quality shots than corner3s from PP/Grant.

The question is will IME play PP/Grant/JRich more, tell the JAYs to pass and enforce greater ball movement like he promised Day #1

e
When you see the iso approach fail yet again and watch the Bucks find Matthews for 2 critical 3s it's hard not to agree. Of course if a couple of the C's shots drop, it's a totally different conversation. Marcus' wide open 3 and JB's open mid range would have changed the game entirely.

The JAYs ISO approach was questioned long before the Bucks loss. IME made fun of the Celtics asst rank in his opening presser

“We want to have a well-rounded team. Looked at the numbers overall, sorry to mention this Brad,” Udoka said turning to 2020-21 coach Brad Stevens, who is now the Celtics’ team president. “But 27th in assists last year. We want to have more team basketball

 

[slamminsammya]

Iso is fine towards the last few possessions but they seem to start going ISO with around 5 minutes left which is how they are so consistently good at blowing leads.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I'm a huge JAYs fan, and they are the path to Celtic Salvation. BUT I suspect the JAYs believe their turnaround fadeaways & long 2s are higher quality shots than corner3s from PP/Grant.

The question is will IME play PP/Grant/JRich more, tell the JAYs to pass and enforce greater ball movement like he promised Day #1


The JAYs ISO approach was questioned long before the Bucks loss. IME made fun of the Celtics asst rank in his opening presser

“We want to have a well-rounded team. Looked at the numbers overall, sorry to mention this Brad,” Udoka said turning to 2020-21 coach Brad Stevens, who is now the Celtics’ team president. “But 27th in assists last year. We want to have more team basketball

I don’t know where I posted it but I told you that this wouldn’t last. You don’t change a tigers stripes for very long. Iso players are gonna iso……especially young ones who haven’t yet figured out the proper balance and/or confidence in their passing ability.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Iso is fine towards the last few possessions but they seem to start going ISO with around 5 minutes left which is how they are so consistently good at blowing leads.

Exactly. I think we all understand that you have to have a different approach in the last 1-2 minutes of a close game.

But the C's had a 13 point lead 43 minutes into this one. Why go away from what's working with a 13 point lead and 5 minutes to go. We end up with a bunch of shitty ISO's that bring the other team back into the game, and then we all of a sudden have a close game, and our answer is obvious, MORE ISO'S.

I screamed about the lack of off ball movement, and the predictability of this offense for a long time under Brad, and Ime seems to have this team trying new things, but once it's time to close games out, we just go back to the same shit offense. This is where we knew Brad wouldn't have any reaction, but I think Ime needs to do something. You see Tatum go ISO at the 5 minute mark, sit him for a minute. The guy had played 10 straight minutes, you have a double digit lead, thus it's not a public admonishment, he just needs rest (wink). You talk to him and put him back out there. Nothing, just watch as the lead disappears.

 

[Auger34]

Iso is fine towards the last few possessions but they seem to start going ISO with around 5 minutes left which is how they are so consistently good at blowing leads.

Bingo. It’s a mix of what you’re saying here and what wbcd mentioned earlier..ISO with the Jays is basically their entire offense for the last 5 minutes and the other 9 players on the court know it.
There’s 0 movement by anyone and the entire offense stagnates. And there does seem to be a sentiment of “I am taking this shot regardless because I am a star and this is my time to score” (I’d say more from Tatum than Brown but it’s a good amount for both).
What’s especially frustrating is that this seems to be a mindset thing more than anything (which is why I don’t think Schroeder and his ability to get to the hole helps at all as it pertains to this discussion). There just has to be more movement and a willingness to pass and trust your teammates

 

[Auger34]

Exactly. I think we all understand that you have to have a different approach in the last 1-2 minutes of a close game.

But the C's had a 13 point lead 43 minutes into this one. Why go away from what's working with a 13 point lead and 5 minutes to go. We end up with a bunch of shitty ISO's that bring the other team back into the game, and then we all of a sudden have a close game, and our answer is obvious, MORE ISO'S.

I screamed about the lack of off ball movement, and the predictability of this offense for a long time under Brad, and Ime seems to have this team trying new things, but once it's time to close games out, we just go back to the same shit offense. This is where we knew Brad wouldn't have any reaction, but I think Ime needs to do something. You see Tatum go ISO at the 5 minute mark, sit him for a minute. The guy had played 10 straight minutes, you have a double digit lead, thus it's not a public admonishment, he just needs rest (wink). You talk to him and put him back out there. Nothing, just watch as the lead disappears.

I legitimately don’t know the answer to this, and in all likelihood it’s different for every coach and depends on their willingness to collaborate but….at what point do we start to wonder if these are the plays/sets that Tatum and Brown ask for and want to play late in games?

Im one of the bigger Ime critics on this board and though that Brad became overrated as a coach at the end but they are both clearly capable and know a lot about the game. They see the same things we do so I have to imagine that they’ve tried to suggest wrinkles and different plays than just straight clear out ISOs

 

[lovegtm]

...
Im one of the bigger Ime critics on this board and though that Brad became overrated as a coach at the end but they are both clearly capable and know a lot about the game. They see the same things we do so I have to imagine that they’ve tried to suggest wrinkles and different plays than just straight clear out ISOs

A lot of this started in the bubble, when Hayward was hurt and Brad by many accounts was burned out. It continued into last year, obviously, and then Brad got out of coaching.

I'm fairly confident that peak Brad would have had answers to this, and the jury is still very much out on whether Ime can find them. (To be clear, I was in favor of Brad's moving on, since something was clearly missing by the end of last year).

 

[Eddie Jurak]

What’s especially frustrating is that this seems to be a mindset thing more than anything (which is why I don’t think Schroeder and his ability to get to the hole helps at all as it pertains to this discussion). There just has to be more movement and a willingness to pass and trust your teammates

If we are going to do the 1 on 5 thing, it might as well be Brown or Tatum, both better scorers than Schroder.

To me the Pritchard example is the most galling one. He wasn't just wide-open in the sense that no player was near him, he was open because his man had drifted so far towards the lane that Smart was able to set a screen for him. His man was out of the play, period.

The Celtics are simply a better team if Pritchard can make those shots than if he cannot. Not giving him the chance is, in effect, choosing madiocrity over the potential to be better.

 

[Fishy1]

Yeah, I mean I can't believe we're even having this discussion. There's no universe in which that ball shouldn't go to Pritchard. He's wide open. To suggest that we should pass up open shots because defenses tighten up and you have to ISO at the end of games is plainly ridiculous when... there's an open shot because the defense is collapsing on your tunnel-vision-stricken star. Pritchard taking that 3 at 40% is better than Tatum of Brown taking a tough 2 at 40%.

I'm sure the C's are watching this stuff on game film just like we are. Question is how long will it take them to adjust. I think they're pressing in order to prove themselves, and it shows.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Oof…
View: https://twitter.com/byjayking/status/1475491711874916355?s=21

Jay King: Jayson Tatum has entered health and safety protocols, according to the Celtics.

 

[NomarsFool]

Well, now they are really screwed.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Well, now they are really screwed.

I don't think it changes much unless he's out for an extended stretch. It's not like the team is competing for home court. Though, I guess the 6 seed is still very much in play.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

SSS, but TL has played 8 games this year without Al Horford.

8 games w/o Al: 34.3 minutes, .778/-/.577, 12.4 points, 11.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.5 blocks, 1.1 TO, 2.4 PF.
17 games with Al: 25.7 minutes .720/-/.650, 8.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.3 blocks

Somewhere on this board I was talking about the negative impact Al is having on TL's production. While it could have long term benefits, Al is almost definitely the cause in TL's rate stats and Per 36 stats to sink like an anvil. TL has 7 multi assists games this year, all but 1 came with Al out. 3 of his 4 best rebounding performances came with Al out. Season high and blocks and steals came with Al out.


Game Logs without Al
45 minutes, 16 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 5 blocks 5/5 FG, 6/8 FT.
36 minutes, 12 points, 16 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks 5/7, 2/4
34 minutes, 12 points, 16 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 3 blocks 6/7
21 minutes, 5 points, 5 rebounds, 3 blocks, 5 PF. 2/2, 1/2
37 minutes, 7 points, 11 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block 3/6, 1/5
29 minutes, 15 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block 6/8, 3/4
34 minutes, 21 points, 11 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks 10/12, 1/2
39 minutes, 11 points, 14 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, 5/7 1/2.

Record 4-4.

With AL: 9-8.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying TL is worse with Al or that the team is worse with Al. Just that Al is definitely having an impact on TL's production. You'd expect them to eat into each others rebounding and block totals. Where they are both good passers, I guess they eat into each others assists totals too.

Just my observation, but I think TL plays better overall when he's passing the ball around and is more involved. I'd guess most players play better when they are more involved, though.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

That is a perfect example of how stats alone don’t tell the entire story. I’d point to Holmes in Sacramento as another example of a guy putting up numbers due to being in an ideal situation to put up numbers without another big having played next to him sharing the opportunities.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

That is a perfect example of how stats alone don’t tell the entire story. I’d point to Holmes in Sacramento as another example of a guy putting up numbers due to being in an ideal situation to put up numbers without another big having played next to him sharing the opportunities.

That was my point. Most of the drop off in production from TL over last year is due to playing with Al and not a regression from TL. Some of it is due to an increase in minutes, as well. Ime (and others) probably considers Al the better passer so that's going to eat into TL's opportunities a lot in the passing department. Again, SSS but 1 game with 2 or more assists in 17 games with Al, 6 games with 2 or more assists in 8 games without. You'd expect TL to drop off in rebounds and blocks due to AL, too.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

That was my point. Most of the drop off in production from TL over last year is due to playing with Al and not a regression from TL. Some of it is due to an increase in minutes, as well. Ime (and others) probably considers Al the better passer so that's going to eat into TL's opportunities a lot in the passing department. Again, SSS but 1 game with 2 or more assists in 17 games with Al, 6 games with 2 or more assists in 8 games without. You'd expect TL to drop off in rebounds and blocks due to AL, too.

The other side could be that his numbers were overvalued last year when playing as the lone big. The truth is somewhere in the middle but if you’re looking to win a Championship you aren’t looking at raw numbers from a complimentary piece.

 

[benhogan]

with TL, best to look at his /36 numbers, they have cratered playing in the 2BIGZ + the increase in minutes.

For the hundredth time, splitting TL/Al's minutes at the 5 is the obvious move. Especially with the emergence of Grant and JRich who deserve more wing minutes.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Sure…but how many times have they had all four of those guys available at the same time?

 

[benhogan]

Sure…but how many times have they had all four of those guys available at the same time?

doesn't matter, when 3 or 4 are healthy IME plays Al/TL too many minutes and doesn't play JRich/Grant enough. Al isn't a wing, he's strictly a 5 as is TL.

Playing an older Horford and injury-prone TimeLord excessive minutes, leading to missed games (ex-COVID) was completely predictable. As was their efficiency decrease.

 

[chilidawg]

The other side could be that his numbers were overvalued last year when playing as the lone big. The truth is somewhere in the middle but if you’re looking to win a Championship you aren’t looking at raw numbers from a complimentary piece.

Exactly.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

It is going to be an "interesting" game tonight.
View: https://twitter.com/ByJayKing/status/1475611919792943105?s=20

Jay King: Payton Pritchard will start at point guard tonight with Marcus Smart, Dennis Schroder and Jayson Tatum all out.

Smart out with a hand laceration that is not expected to be a long term thing.

View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1475611858862317571?s=20

Keith Smith: Payton Pritchard will start tonight. Ime Udoka said Romeo Langford and possibly Brodric Thomas will see some minutes behind Pritchard at the point tonight.

Point Langford did not work out that well during the limited look at it last year.

But...
View: https://twitter.com/John_Karalis/status/1475610739100553218?s=20

John Karalis: No minute restrictions for Al Hoford or Grant Williams.

We've got Al and our 50/40/90 guy back.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Good spot for Pritchard to get first unit minites going up against a G-League backcourt.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

To paraphrase noted disaster philosopher The Joker, “this team needs an enema”

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Well, that was an epic disaster. The Celtics were blasted by the JV Timberwolves. The score doesn't look bad for a normal NBA game but it sucks against a JV team. Outside of Smart who was out of the lineup there is very little mental toughness on this team. Once things turned, most of the Celtics just played tight and afraid.

There was some legit adversity for the Celtics going into this game. They only had 6 rotation players and 1 ballhandler (Pritchard) available. Their best player (Tatum), their most competitive player (Smart), and their only other ballhandler (Schroder) were out. On top of that, Rob immediately got himself into foul trouble. He played 22 minutes in the game, but only 15 through the first 3 quarters and his 7 minutes in the 4th came after this one was over for all practical intents and purposes.

The shorthandedness meant that the Celtics needed to get 35 minutes out of Juancho, Hauser, and Parker. None of those minutes were garbage time minutes, but a lot of those minutes were garbage. On top of that, a brief second quarter experiment with Langford and Brown as the ballhandlers did not go well, leading to Pritchard playing 44 minutes. While Pritchard wasn't terrible, he was front rimming a lot of shots in the 4th.

The Celtics defense was terrible. There were long stretches of the game where if the Celtics could simply have defended well they would have been fine. But they did not. At one point the Wolves were 11 for 12 from the floor in the 4th. Things really fell apart when Rob picked up foul number 5 late in the third, leading to Ime going to a Juancho/Grant 4/5 while Horford rested. Then he pivoted to Hauser instead of the terrible Juancho. And he was also bad.

Grant shot well and scored 15 in his 28 minutes (and was +5) even though he played quite a bit as a wing which is not usually his thing.

Pritchard had bad shooting numbers (8 of 22, 5 of 14 from three) but he ended up with 23 points 8 baords 6 assists in 44 minutes. He's not someone I blame for this loss.

Brown had a stretch in the second quarter where he turned the ball over repeatedly, seemed on the verge of picking up a T by complaining, then picked up an obvious offensive foul. Then he settled in, hit some shots, and Celtics took an 11 point lead into the second half. Too bad they got drilled 63-47 in the second half and the game was less close than that.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

14-5 when they go into the 4th quarter with a lead.
2-13 when they go in behind.

If you look at the standings, you clearly see what the problem is. Every single team ahead of the C's has a better record when leading after 3 quarters. Not even particularly close, the C's have 3 more losses in those situations than any team ahead of them. They are 12th out of 15 teams in the Eastern conference. Pacers are half a game worse and the Pistons/Magic are much worse in far fewer opportunities.

https://www.nba.com/standings?GroupBy=conf&Season=2021-22&Section=ab

It's the only difference between home court and a play in game.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Eddie's writeups are so good that you don't really have to watch the games.

Which is good, because the games aren't worth watching lately.

 

[bankshot1]

I'm getting tired of rationalizing their inability to close out games.

They are what they are.

They have the attention span of a kitten, they're soft as puppy shit, and possess the discipline of a spoiled brat.

 

[RorschachsMask]

oof.

View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1475679115093155847?s=20

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Oh, that’s a good sign.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Langford is 2/25 from 3 over his last 11 games. Now at 18/54, .333 for the year.

And those Brown comments... Uhh, yeah. He should definitely be looking in the mirror. 8/24 tonight, 6 TO.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

The TWolves were missing the following guys based on minutes per game:

Edwards: #1
KAT: #2
Russell: #3

They all average more than 33mpg with Edwards over 35mpg.

Beasley played, he's only started 4 games, but he averages 26mpg off the bench.

Then they were missing Patrick Beverly, their #5 mpg guy.

McDaniels played, he's #6 for them.

Their 7-9 guys, (Vanderbilt, Reid, and Prince) did not play.

Their 10th guy is Okogie who got 16 minutes.
Their 11th guy at 11mpg is McLaughlin.

They had 3 of their top 11 guys play tonight, with Beasley basically being their only established player.

Nathan Knight is their 15th man, and he went off for 20/11/4 against our two bigs.

On the flipside:

The C's were missing 5 of their top 11 guys (1,2,4, 7 and 10 in mpg)

If the C's didn't have Jaylen, Tatum, Smart, Horford, Richardson, Grant and Romeo, this would have been an even matchup based on MPG, so the C's would have had DS, TL, Enes and PP and their 12th man and lower.

That's how bad this TWolves roster was going into tonight. Greg Monroe showed up at the arena from the airport, got 25 minutes, and went for 11/9/6, plus 2 steals and a block. Jaylen Nowell who plays less than 10mpg in the 18 games he's been used, went for 29 fucking points on 10/18 shooting.

My conclusion. If both teams showed up tonight with full rosters and perfect health, the C"s would have lost by 1,000,000,000 points.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Langford is 2/25 from 3 over his last 11 games. Now at 18/54, .333 for the year.

And those Brown comments... Uhh, yeah. He should definitely be looking in the mirror. 8/24 tonight, 6 TO.

He did say it was his worst game of the season and he needs to do better.

BUT... Jaylen and Jayson both seem to do that a lot, each bad game is a fluke to them, each 4th quarter collapse is... "oh well bad night, on to the next one" without any examination of what in their game causes these repeated issues. Like Brown... his handle is still garbage, he still makes awful decision in crunch time, he still plays lazy D whenever Tatum is out and he gets a slightly bigger offensive load.

 

[Auger34]

oof.

View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1475679115093155847?s=20

what a weird quote…all of his other quotes are about how bad he was and let the team down

 

[Cellar-Door]

what a weird quote…all of his other quotes are about how bad he was and let the team down

It's not that weird, he and Tatum both treat every bad game as if it's a freak occurance, and any suggestion of systematic problems with their games as outrageous and insulting.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Langford is 2/25 from 3 over his last 11 games. Now at 18/54, .333 for the year.

And those Brown comments... Uhh, yeah. He should definitely be looking in the mirror. 8/24 tonight, 6 TO.

Yeah, but they sucked way, way worse when he wasn't on the floor. He (+11) and Horford (+10) and Pritchard (+1) were the only guys that didn't shit all over the court tonight. Romeo was -32 in 36 minutes and TL was -17 in 22 minutes. Brown went for 26/10/4. When Tatum puts up those numbers, everyone ignores his shooting 33% and turnovers.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Yeah, but they sucked way, way worse when he wasn't on the floor. He (+11) and Horford (+10) and Pritchard (+1) were the only guys that didn't shit all over the court tonight. Romeo was -32 in 36 minutes and TL was -17 in 22 minutes. Brown went for 26/10/4. When Tatum puts up those numbers, everyone ignores his shooting 33% and turnovers.

What was your beef with Grant Williams? He had some sloppy play after a good start but was overall a positive.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

what a weird quote…all of his other quotes are about how bad he was and let the team down

Seriously. How hard is it to say, “yeah, Al’s right. We’re still searching for our identity as a team but I’m confident that we’ll find it and right the ship soon” or whatever else generic media cliche bullshit that these guys constantly use. I’d be shocked if there weren’t some serious issues in that locker room that we’re not privy to…yet.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

What was your beef with Grant Williams? He had some sloppy play after a good start but was overall a positive.

Sorry, should have said "starters." Grant was good tonight on offense. I was too busy wiping tears from my face when they were on defense.

Of course, Ime benched him randomly, including at the end of the game, so he could get his 2BIGZ back in there. Al played 34 minutes tonight and Grant played 28. Those numbers should have been flipped. Again.

 

[benhogan]

Grant was good. He's been our best 3pt shooter from Day 1 this season. I can only guess he didn't play 30+mins due to just coming back from the protocol (but Al played 34mins).

I have a few problems with IME's rotations but it's mostly a talent thing + the JAYs aren't exactly taking over like they should this season.

December has been brutal, but not completely unexpected. Time for Brad to start fielding calls (or making them)

 

[BigSoxFan]

oof.

View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1475679115093155847?s=20

That quote is…not inspiring.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The problem tonight was defense. They gave up a lot of open shots, and it would have been more MIN didn't throw the ball away about 5 times when cutters were open. The Cs couldn't keep people in front of them, were generally over helping and not on point on their rotations, plus were destroyed by MIN's movement.

I would still like to see an extended stretch where they are healthy and see if they can lock in defensively. Hopefully, tonight was just an aberration as it seemed like every Cs player was below-average defensively - or worse.

Seriously. How hard is it to say, “yeah, Al’s right. We’re still searching for our identity as a team but I’m confident that we’ll find it and right the ship soon” or whatever else generic media cliche bullshit that these guys constantly use. I’d be shocked if there weren’t some serious issues in that locker room that we’re not privy to…yet.

Maybe he wanted to say something even more critical but held back?

 

[Jimbodandy]

There are many reasons to hate covid, and one is that we have to watch Juancho play.

 

[Euclis20]

I missed tonight's game, but seeing the results and our record (16-18) reminds of Bull Durham:

View: https://youtu.be/RjtmKIWa4tY?t=66


It feels like we've hit bottom quite a bit since our 8-3 start last year, but this hole can get quite a bit deeper.

 

[128]

The shorthandedness meant that the Celtics needed to get 35 minutes out of Juancho, Hauser, and Parker. None of those minutes were garbage time minutes, but a lot of those minutes were garbage.

Great line.

 

[128]

View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1475670807913406469

 

[Eddie Jurak]

The Rob foul trouble killed them because it meant a good ~12 minutes of Juancho/Hauser/Parker before the game had gotten out of hand - one third of their overall minutes.

 

[DJnVa]

Can't wait for our second players-only meeting, less than halfway through the season.

 

[NomarsFool]

I didn't watch the 4th quarter as I felt confident the C's could pull out the win against a G-league team. Maybe I shouldn't be shocked at the outcome given how this season has gone, but I was still dumbfounded they found a way to lose to that team.

 

[128]

I didn't watch the 4th quarter as I felt confident the C's could pull out the win against a G-league team. Maybe I shouldn't be shocked at the outcome given how this season has gone, but I was still dumbfounded they found a way to lose to that team.

When the opponent starts to battle back late in the game, the C's loss of confidence is almost palpable. They start missing shots they've been making all game and start going away from what helped them build a lead. I wonder if any of the players meet with sports psychologists.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I'm not the biggest Scal fan, but he called it early... "you can't give guys open shots at home then expect to turn on the defense late" the offense was a slop-fest in the 4th like always, but the bigger issue was how many open shots we gave up