Analysis of Celtics Games, '21-'22 Season

Cellar-Door

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Nobody contests shots in the G-League games I’ve seen so that 38% could be extremely misleading.
possibly, but just on volume it's one of the better numbers for that kind of volume league-wide (he's 4th in takes total), and his shooting in college was good.
Now... not everybody's shooting translates, but a guy putting up top 3pt and FT shooting in the G-League and who shot pretty well in college, and has decent size is a guy you take a look at for your half-season cheap 2-way spot.
 

HomeRunBaker

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possibly, but just on volume it's one of the better numbers for that kind of volume league-wide (he's 4th in takes total), and his shooting in college was good.
Now... not everybody's shooting translates, but a guy putting up top 3pt and FT shooting in the G-League and who shot pretty well in college, and has decent size is a guy you take a look at for your half-season cheap 2-way spot.
Yes I agree. After watching this team surround Tatum and Brown with poor shooters for a couple years I’m all for taking shots on guys who can knock down a 3. The weird thing about this is why didn’t we simply keep Matthews who at least can somewhat compete in other areas of an NBA game?
 

Cellar-Door

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Yes I agree. After watching this team surround Tatum and Brown with poor shooters for a couple years I’m all for taking shots on guys who can knock down a 3. The weird thing about this is why didn’t we simply keep Matthews who at least can somewhat compete in other areas of an NBA game?
because they wanted to be able to cut Jabari to open a roster spot basically? And didn't want to eat a bigger guaranteed salary.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Anyone watching? I'm only following by box score and have no idea why JB has only 3min.
The game thread is going now. JB twisted his ankle early, left under his own power with a slight limp, and was announced as out. Looked pretty nasty on video, so hopeful it's only a couple games.
 

bellowthecat

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Last time they played the Hawks they mostly left 1 defender on Young and cheated on the passing lanes. Trae didn't shoot well and it worked out. Tonight that strategy wasn't working, whether because Trae was ready for it or JB getting hurt screwed up the scheme, and Ime made the very effective halftime adjustment to throw a lot of different double team looks at Trae. Great execution to hold the Hawks to 33 total second half points.
 

benhogan

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Stopping the TOs, letting the defense dig in, and making the Hawks earn every basket was the recipe after Halftime.

The pace seemed to slow with no run-outs for ATL

Also, share the damn ball with Grant in the half-court offense, he can score efficiently from 3 & the restricted zone
 

benhogan

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because they wanted to be able to cut Jabari to open a roster spot basically? And didn't want to eat a bigger guaranteed salary.
Keeping Jabari Parker over Mathews because they wanted min salary flexibility for mid-season, wasn't really all that clever as it turned out

As we saw at the trade deadline getting rid of min. flotsam/salary player is pretty simple
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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ATL scored 37 points in the 3Q shooting 14-19, including 4-7 from 3P. Cs had 6 TOs; ATL also scored 5 FTs.

Other than that, ATL scored 61 points in the other three quarters.

Nesmith started the third quarter as Ime wanted to keep White, GW, and PP in their regular spots. Funny that Ime ran what appeared to be a play for AN to start the 2H. I think AN helped on defense as his length and rotations prevented open looks. Strangely, ATL did not to my memory isolate Trae on AN more than once (if at all). AN is so hyper he really rushes his shot. Hopefully things can slow down for him at some point this year. It looks to me that he's still thinking about what he should do when he gets the ball on the offensive end.
 

the moops

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Keeping Jabari Parker over Mathews because they wanted min salary flexibility for mid-season, wasn't really all that clever as it turned out
I don't think Mathews would be getting any more playing time than Hauser is. Houston is a terrible team and the only reason he sees time is because of how terrible they are.
 

benhogan

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I don't think Mathews would be getting any more playing time than Hauser is. Houston is a terrible team and the only reason he sees time is because of how terrible they are.
Mathews started 24 games and played for a playoff team last year. Comparing him to an undrafted rookie, Sam Hauser, is asinine. Jabari got his opportunity to play minutes earlier this season but was complete swiss cheese on D. GM would have been helpful, especially since Brad has taken to signing poorer versions of him

You see how thin the Celtics are when one starter goes down and they have to start/play Nesmith. I was all for giving Aaron minutes the first half of the year but this isn't the time of year we need to see him on the floor
 

Cellar-Door

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Keeping Jabari Parker over Mathews because they wanted min salary flexibility for mid-season, wasn't really all that clever as it turned out

As we saw at the trade deadline getting rid of min. flotsam/salary player is pretty simple
yeah, though it did let them move Juancho for free well before the deadline without paying, which surprised some people, and made planning easier. I don't think they were ever really thinking about keeping Matthews on a full deal, since opening a spot by waiving Jabari was likely always the plan. I think they wanted to have him clear waivers then give him the 2-way spot. HOU scooped him up for their own 2-way spot and the Celtics moved on to Thomas.
 

benhogan

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yeah, though it did let them move Juancho for free well before the deadline without paying, which surprised some people, and made planning easier. I don't think they were ever really thinking about keeping Matthews on a full deal, since opening a spot by waiving Jabari was likely always the plan. I think they wanted to have him clear waivers then give him the 2-way spot. HOU scooped him up for their own 2-way spot and the Celtics moved on to Thomas.
that was another small whiff, taking flotsam like Bol/Dozier instead of adding a shooter like Forbes who could have helped.

I've given PBS high grades for his overall approach but there is nothing wrong with criticizing some of his small on-the-edge moves. Mathews would have been useful after trying out/giving PT to Juancho and Jabari to open the season.

3pt shooting was a NEED to open the season and it's still a need, using the 15th spot on GM would have been helpful
 

Cellar-Door

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that was another small whiff, taking flotsam like Bol/Dozier instead of adding a shooter like Forbes who could have helped.

I've given PBS high grades for his overall approach but there is nothing wrong with criticizing some of his small on-the-edge moves. Mathews would have been useful after trying out/giving PT to Juancho and Jabari to open the season.

3pt shooting was a NEED to open the season and it's still a need, using the 15th spot on GM would have been helpful
Sure, but I get the reasoning. They weren't using spot 15 on a player, they were using it on a flexible contract. And they most certainly were not eating Juancho's salary.

I would also note... Matthews has been pretty bad defensively and his shooting has fallen off, he also has splits where he's much better in big minutes than small. I'm not sure his success in HOU playing for a team that doesn't care if they get crushed and play no defense is indicative that he would have done anything here, I mean if we were willing to play a poor defender who can shoot Hauser would be getting minutes.


Edit- and Dozier/Bol was about salary cutting and splitting up salaries, we never could have had Forbes, he was traded for 2 seconds which we weren't giving up, we just came in at the end to save SAS a roster spot.
 

benhogan

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Sure, but I get the reasoning. They weren't using spot 15 on a player, they were using it on a flexible contract. And they most certainly were not eating Juancho's salary.

I would also note... Matthews has been pretty bad defensively and his shooting has fallen off, he also has splits where he's much better in big minutes than small. I'm not sure his success in HOU playing for a team that doesn't care if they get crushed and play no defense is indicative that he would have done anything here, I mean if we were willing to play a poor defender who can shoot Hauser would be getting minutes.
don't really care that much about his minutes with Houston, which have been fine. if you watch any of their games he's passable at D relative to the rest of that roster. AND worlds better than Jabari, who is getting driven on somewhere in Europe I assume.

It was GM's PT/experience/3pt shooting with the Wizards which made him interesting as a #15 on a min

once again any comp of GM to Sam Hauser is asinine
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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This is an angels on the head of a pin discussion. None of these players being discussed are impactful in NBA terms. Its akin to worrying about whether you exchanged too many nickels for not enough dimes when the amount is around $1.


Edit: I assume that the C's have reasons we may not be privy to for their end of the roster moves this season though some of them are obvious. It may not make sense to some fans but it doesn't mean that the Celtics logic was unsound or irrational. Maybe keeping Parker around was some agent service - it really doesn't matter for this team or its prospects going forward. None of the names being discussed do.
 
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chilidawg

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This is an angels on the head of a pin discussion. None of these players being discussed are impactful in NBA terms. Its akin to worrying about whether you exchanged too many nickels for not enough dimes when the amount is around $1.


Edit: I assume that the C's have reasons we may not be privy to for their end of the roster moves this season though some of them are obvious. It may not make sense to some fans but it doesn't mean that the Celtics logic was unsound or irrational. Maybe keeping Parker around was some agent service - it really doesn't matter for this team or its prospects going forward. None of the names being discussed do.
Not sure I fully buy this. C's are a very good team 1-7, with very little depth beyond that. Getting one of these flier types to pop enough to contribute would be very helpful. Is Matthews that guy, I don't fucking know, but Parker sure wasn't.

C's sure could use Nesmith and Pritchard to step up to be quality role players.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Not sure I fully buy this. C's are a very good team 1-7, with very little depth beyond that. Getting one of these flier types to pop enough to contribute would be very helpful. Is Matthews that guy, I don't fucking know, but Parker sure wasn't.

C's sure could use Nesmith and Pritchard to step up to be quality role players.
I agree they could use more skill at the end of their rotation. Another two way wing with some distribution skills would be ideal. I don't think Garrison Matthews is that player and I think Boston let him go because he appears to be a liability on defense. 49823
 
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Cellar-Door

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don't really care that much about his minutes with Houston, which have been fine. if you watch any of their games he's passable at D relative to the rest of that roster. AND worlds better than Jabari, who is getting driven on somewhere in Europe I assume.

It was GM's PT/experience/3pt shooting with the Wizards which made him interesting as a #15 on a min

once again any comp of GM to Sam Hauser is asinine
He's a two-way guy... if they could get him on a 2 way... good, if not... oh well. He isn't a good player, he's not some wild step up from Hauser... he's just older and played in the NBA before... there is a reason he had zero full time offers this year.

Comparing him as a player to Hauser is fine, because their hypothetical roles are the same.
Comparing him to Jabari is indeed asinine though, because:
1. They play completely different roles and positions.
2. Jabari didn't make the roster over Matthews for some hypothetical minutes based use, he made it because of his contract.
3. Ime wasn't playing Garrison Matthews. He hasn't played more than 8 guys for months. He doesn't play Theis, he barely played Nesmith and Romeo or even Pritchard, guys the team has real investments in. He wasn't gonna play Mathews.

Was it a mistake... maybe? If it was it was at best a miniscule one.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He's a two-way guy... if they could get him on a 2 way... good, if not... oh well. He isn't a good player, he's not some wild step up from Hauser... he's just older and played in the NBA before... there is a reason he had zero full time offers this year.

Comparing him as a player to Hauser is fine, because their hypothetical roles are the same.
Comparing him to Jabari is indeed asinine though, because:
1. They play completely different roles and positions.
2. Jabari didn't make the roster over Matthews for some hypothetical minutes based use, he made it because of his contract.
3. Ime wasn't playing Garrison Matthews. He hasn't played more than 8 guys for months. He doesn't play Theis, he barely played Nesmith and Romeo or even Pritchard, guys the team has real investments in. He wasn't gonna play Mathews.

Was it a mistake... maybe? If it was it was at best a miniscule one.
I didn’t feel it was a mistake at the time as Mathews isn’t much of an NBA player. I do find it somewhat amusing that we are using our extra roster spots on inferior players of similar skillset to hopefully develop into what the guy we had already was.
 

benhogan

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I didn’t feel it was a mistake at the time as Mathews isn’t much of an NBA player. I do find it somewhat amusing that we are using our extra roster spots on inferior players of similar skillset to hopefully develop into what the guy we had already was.
thank you...its loose change in the back of the station wagon
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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2. Jabari didn't make the roster over Matthews for some hypothetical minutes based use, he made it because of his contract.
I've not done the math but I assume keeping Jabari and then cutting him in January allowed the Cs to save a few hundred thousand bucks on the salary cap, which I'm sure was super important for planning purposes and in case JB became an All-Star.

One other thing is I feel is that while everyone was worried about the Cs shooting, they did have PP and AN who are supposed to be shooters. We were also worried about the lack of depth at the 4 and 5 and Jabari was supposed to be a flier who might be able to help the Cs address that. I went back and checked and the games in which Jabari got extended minutes were the ones when Al or TL were out.
 

Van Everyman

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Not sure I fully buy this. C's are a very good team 1-7, with very little depth beyond that. Getting one of these flier types to pop enough to contribute would be very helpful. Is Matthews that guy, I don't fucking know, but Parker sure wasn't.

C's sure could use Nesmith and Pritchard to step up to be quality role players.
Based on what Washburn wrote in his column today, I think that is exactly what he is hoping for. Ime plays guys who he trusts and who know and play within his system, not minute hogs playing for their next contract.

It certainly seems like Prichard is getting some run now that Schroder is gone. Nesmith less so, at least so far. My guess is that he will get his chance.
 

joe dokes

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It certainly seems like Prichard is getting some run now that Schroder is gone. Nesmith less so, at least so far. My guess is that he will get his chance.
Since Ime went out of his way (for him) to point out that Nesmith was good last night despite the shooting, I think this is true.
 

benhogan

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Since Ime went out of his way (for him) to point out that Nesmith was good last night despite the shooting, I think this is true.
Nesmith's dizzying energy makes him somewhat playable, but it's probably that same excess excitement that makes him shoot 3s so poorly. I'd rather see him try to take the ball to the rim hard before launching 3s, he's chipping the paint on the side of the backboards with his Corner3s

At the moment the best we can say about AN is he cares a lot, will dive after every loose ball and give up his body for every rebound. I guess 10-15mpg of that isn't the worse thing with Brown out...Just keep him away from Tatum's knees
 

the moops

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I didn’t feel it was a mistake at the time as Mathews isn’t much of an NBA player. I do find it somewhat amusing that we are using our extra roster spots on inferior players of similar skillset to hopefully develop into what the guy we had already was.
The guys with similar skillsets were on 2-ways though. Mathews wanted an NBA deal
 

Jimbodandy

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NGL, the "oh noes Garrison Matthews and Max Strus" conversations make me pine for the pearl-clutching repartee of the "Daniel Theis @$9M?!?!" days.
 

NomarsFool

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NGL, the "oh noes Garrison Matthews and Max Strus" conversations make me pine for the pearl-clutching repartee of the "Daniel Theis @$9M?!?!" days.
I have actually been surprised by how little run Theis has gotten. He really is only Horford/Williams insurance so far. I thought he might get sprinkled in a little more than that.
 

Jimbodandy

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I have actually been surprised by how little run Theis has gotten. He really is only Horford/Williams insurance so far. I thought he might get sprinkled in a little more than that.
Looks like anyone beyond the top 7 will be getting pretty inconsistent run, which is probably how it should be. There's no case where Theis is more useful than Grant or White, so he's fighting for time with PP and AN when everyone is healthy.
 

benhogan

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NGL, the "oh noes Garrison Matthews and Max Strus" conversations make me pine for the pearl-clutching repartee of the "Daniel Theis @$9M?!?!" days.
re: Theis deal
Houston held up their end of the bargain and kept Schroder past March 1.

DS won't be showing up on any playoff rosters this season. Small victory for the C's
 

HomeRunBaker

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re: Theis deal
Houston held up their end of the bargain and kept Schroder past March 1.

DS won't be showing up on any playoff rosters this season. Small victory for the C's
DS was two assists (or was it rebounds?) from a triple double the other night and was kinda close a couple games ago too. This is a good place for him to be entering FA as he’s going to put up big numbers with the ball in his hands.
 

Jimbodandy

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DS was two assists (or was it rebounds?) from a triple double the other night and was kinda close a couple games ago too. This is a good place for him to be entering FA as he’s going to put up big numbers with the ball in his hands.
Yes, happy ending for everyone.

I feel for the kid, turning down good money. Hope he lands a long-term deal with a team that needs what he gives.
 

Eddie Jurak

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The Memphis win felt like one of the most significant wins of the season. A 43-21 Memphis team, 3rd in the West and largely healthy (missing only Dillon Brooks and he has missed 2/3 of the season), having maybe the top young player in the league (Morant) and another very good one (JJJ) and the shorthanded Celtics ultimately beat them pretty handily, though the game was a lot closer than the 13 point maging would suggest.

The story of the first quarter was that the Celtics, playing without Brown, built up a small lead via stifling halfcourt defense. The reason the score was close after one (26-20 Celtics) was because the Celtics, especially Tatum and Smart, were very sloppy with the ball and Memphis got a unch of transition points. Ja Morant, and most of his teammates, shot very poorly, but I am willing to credit a lot of that to how effectively the Celtics defended.

The bad news in the first quarter was that the Celtics depth was tested even further as Nesmith went down with a sprained ankle 5 minutes in. (Nesmith aside: this kid was obviously super amped for this start, which he immediately showed by firing a LONG airball from the corner. That miss aside, he did a few good things: he had a nice assist on a Tatum three and got back on transition D quickly enough to steal a lob and start the Celtics on a fast break.) Without Nesmith, the Celtics went to bigger lineups: a lot more double big lineups, including with Theis, and Grant getting a lot of minutes at the 3. There was only 3 minutes of Grant at the 3 in the first quarter, during which Memphis scored 8 of its 20 points. Memphis was better offensively in each successive quarter, and I think some of that had to do with the revamped big lineups.

The second quarter was the only quarter Memphis won, 25-21, aided mainly by more Celtic sloppiness with the ball.

In the third quarter, the Celtics started Smart-Tatum (at guard!), Grant, Horford, Rob, and, over the quarter, beat Memphis 36-27.

Then came the 4th quarter, which was more of a freewheeling offensive game that the Celtics won 37-35. It was also the Ja vs Jayson show, with the latter getting the better of the deal, 22 points to 14. At one point it went back and forth with the two trading baskets.

Al Horford was magnificient in this game, probably his single best game since his return to Boston. He went 40 minutes (Ime likely willing to do this because the Celtics have 2 days off) and shot 8 of 16 from the field, 4 of 8 from three, on his way to a 21-15 double-double. He also had 5 assists and 2 blocks against 2 turnovers. And he had some spectacular plays, such as lobs to Rob (in the halfcourt) and Jayson (in transition with Al coming up with a loose ball and running the break).

Tatum overcame a slow tunrover filled start to end with a nassive 4th quarter. 37 points, 22 in the 4th, despite shooting 2-7 from three. Also 6 rebounds and 5 assists, though he did have 6 turnovers.

Rob mostly had his usual double double: 5-6 for 10 points-12 rebounds in 35 minutes. But he also added 3 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks, just one turnover. Like a lot of Rob's turnovers, this was a case of being carelessly aggressive after a turnover. I think he stole the ball and tossed it forward in a way that the Celtics weren't able to run it down.

Smart had an adequate shooting game (7-17 from the field, including 4-9 from three for 18 points), but he also tied his career high with 12 assists against only 3 turnovers, all of which were early.

Multiple contributors off the bench, with Grant adding 11 points on 4-6 shooting including 3-3 from three. Theis putting up 6 points, 6 rebounds in just 13 minutes, and White and Pritchard also having their moments.

White got hurt in the 4th, left, and did not return. It was an arm injury of some sort that left him playing a couple of possessions with one arm hanging at his side before a stoppage in play. White immediately went back to the room, was checked out, and returned to the bench. I think he could have come back had the Celtics not been closing out the game fine without him.

Nesmith's injury was a turned ankle that saw him assisted off of the court, unable to put any weight on it. (By contrast, when Jaylen turned his ankle recently, he walked off unassisted).

Al played 40 minutes in this game, Rob 35, Theis 13, Grant 35. That means Grant played only 8 minutes at the 4 and 27 at the 3. That unit isn't as good defensively, or at least wasn't today against Memphis, as the normal rotations. If they are going to keep playing that way they will need to rework things - although if rown is back they won't have to.

Al:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8x0v4pzO5Ds
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Rob mostly had his usual double double: 5-6 for 10 points-12 rebounds in 35 minutes. But he also added 3 assists, 3 steals, 3 blocks, just one turnover. Like a lot of Rob's turnovers, this was a case of being carelessly aggressive after a turnover. I think he stole the ball and tossed it forward in a way that the Celtics weren't able to run it down.
On that play, someone tapped a rebound out and TL could have caught it but he saw JT (I think) streaking ahead and literally tried to punch the ball to him. However, he punched it beyond the C player running out and the MEM defender got to the ball first. It was one of those "Looks great if it succeeds but if it doesn't you look like an idiot passes" that Marcus does a few times a game and TL used to do more frequently.

I'll also say that the Cs won by 13 but it wasn't really that close. As you mentioned in the 1H, the Cs turned the ball over several times but there were (IIRC) 4 times that the Cs TO lead to uncontested layups/dunks at the other end. SVGundy mentioned several times that the MEM offense basically consisted of offensive rebounds and run-outs after TOs. When the Cs stopped turning the ball over, MEM was, to use a phrase, Clamped.

MEM switched Ja onto Horford a lot. Al did a credible job although the strategy was for Al to let Ja shoot 3Ps and contest late. Ja went 4-12 for the game but (also IIRC) three of the makes were in the 4Q and were offset by JT going supernova. I don't watch enough MEM games to know whether allowing Ja to shoot what were little more than warm-up 3Ps would work on a regular basis but it worked for the Cs last night.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Speaking out shooting, here is a Ringer article from Tuesday discussing some advanced numbers for the Cs: https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/3/1/22955727/nba-boston-celtics-championship-odds.

Bunch of stats discussed but two that I thought stood out:

(1) Author did not find any correlation between clutch records in regular season versus playoffs (and also cited three examples of teams that were "unclutch" in regular season but had great clutch records in playoffs, including last year's MIL title team (13-15 in clutch games in regular season but 7-2 in playoffs) and 2019-20 MIA team (18-18 in regular season clutch games but 11-3 in the playoffs).

(2) One of the reasons BOS's defense has been so good is that teams are underperforming their shooting. To quote: "Boston’s opponents have underperformed their shooting expectation—based on factors like shot location and defender distance, from Second Spectrum—by the largest margin for any team. The gap is especially wide during Boston’s surge up the standings: Since January 8, Celtics opponents have an effective field goal percentage 3.3 percentage points worse than expected, while the next team on the list is just 0.8 percentage points below." Obviously, some of it could be that BOS does not allow other teams to get into rhythm as when they are on, they seem to force a lot of tough shots. I also don't know whether something like this could be sustainable. Something to look at.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Speaking out shooting, here is a Ringer article from Tuesday discussing some advanced numbers for the Cs: https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/3/1/22955727/nba-boston-celtics-championship-odds.

Bunch of stats discussed but two that I thought stood out:

(1) Author did not find any correlation between clutch records in regular season versus playoffs (and also cited three examples of teams that were "unclutch" in regular season but had great clutch records in playoffs, including last year's MIL title team (13-15 in clutch games in regular season but 7-2 in playoffs) and 2019-20 MIA team (18-18 in regular season clutch games but 11-3 in the playoffs).

(2) One of the reasons BOS's defense has been so good is that teams are underperforming their shooting. To quote: "Boston’s opponents have underperformed their shooting expectation—based on factors like shot location and defender distance, from Second Spectrum—by the largest margin for any team. The gap is especially wide during Boston’s surge up the standings: Since January 8, Celtics opponents have an effective field goal percentage 3.3 percentage points worse than expected, while the next team on the list is just 0.8 percentage points below." Obviously, some of it could be that BOS does not allow other teams to get into rhythm as when they are on, they seem to force a lot of tough shots. I also don't know whether something like this could be sustainable. Something to look at.
Are they factoring our slow pace, long switchable wings on contested shots, etc? The uncontested shot numbers would be the only one I’d attribute to “luck” if teams are shooting below their par in this category.
 

benhogan

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a few years ago @lovegtm put together a nice post on "player positions/positionless basketball" and how Brad considered his 5-man line ups to be: a BALLHANDLER + 3 WINGs + a BIG.

With IMEs switchy defense it's even more positionless. Saying Grant + Al + TL is 3 BIGs isn't all that accurate since Grant and Horford play on the perimeter offensively. On defense, IME uses TL to guard the poorest shooting opposing WING so Rob can freelance around the rim. Does that make Rob a WING, no, he's clearly the team's Center/BIG/5.

Semantics aside, Horford/Grant are primarily WINGs. Horford is the backup BIG when Rob is off the floor. Theis is the 3rd string Center/BIG/5.

Offensively, Grant is rarely positioned on the block/dunker spot. He resides in the Corner Office. On defense, he can be used on the opposing BIG since he is strong enough to body, take the punishment, and is nimble enough on perimeter screens to switch onto ballhandlers (most opponents look to use their non-shooting BIGs as screeners). Grant isn't a BIG height-wise or in practice.


*EDIT...I bring this up because the national hoops media, SVG last night, keep on getting it wrong in regards to the Celtics. 90% of SoSH has a better grip on the Celtics/IMEs approach than these talking heads.
 
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BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
25,028
First 39 games:
- Record: 18-21 (.462 - 38 win pace)
- Points for: 107.9
- Points against: 106.9
- Point diff: +0.9

Last 26 games:
- Record: 20-6 (.769 - 63 win pace)
- Points for: 111.5
- Points against: 99.2
- Point diff: +12.3
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
10,095
San Francisco
Are they factoring our slow pace, long switchable wings on contested shots, etc? The uncontested shot numbers would be the only one I’d attribute to “luck” if teams are shooting below their par in this category.
I don't know if they have changed the state of the art on this but as of a few years ago "contest" values were computed by the relative positions of the relevant players' feet, which loses a lot of what length does, and doesn't distinguish between a Semi Ojeleye feet planted on the ground contest and a Timelord 9 foot 4 wingspan flying at you contest from the same location on the floor.

It would actually be fun to triage some of the examples they have in their bucketing to get an idea for how much signal is lost.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
6,272
Cultural hub of the universe
a few years ago @lovegtm put together a nice post on "player positions/positionless basketball" and how Brad considered his 5-man line ups to be: a BALLHANDLER + 3 WINGs + a BIG.

With IMEs switchy defense it's even more positionless. Saying Grant + Al + TL is 3 BIGs isn't all that accurate since Grant and Horford play on the perimeter offensively. On defense, IME uses TL to guard the poorest shooting opposing WING so Rob can freelance around the rim. Does that make Rob a WING, no, he's clearly the team's Center/BIG/5.

Semantics aside, Horford/Grant are primarily WINGs. Horford is the backup BIG when Rob is off the floor. Theis is the 3rd string Center/BIG/5.

Offensively, Grant is rarely positioned on the block/dunker spot. He resides in the Corner Office. On defense, he can be used on the opposing BIG since he is strong enough to body, take the punishment, and is nimble enough on perimeter screens to switch onto ballhandlers (most opponents look to use their non-shooting BIGs as screeners). Grant isn't a BIG height-wise or in practice.


*EDIT...I bring this up because the national hoops media, SVG last night, keep on getting it wrong in regards to the Celtics. 90% of SoSH has a better grip on the Celtics/IMEs approach than these talking heads.
I don't think it's clear at all that RW is the Center and Al a wing, especially on Defense. Al is primarily the one guarding the other team's Center. Roles switch around as the team switches. Really silly to try to pigeonhole either one into a 4 or 5 number. Both are Bigs in any sense. That's why it's 2BIGZ.